Football & Sports Betting Thread 2023/2024

[Berbaclass]

Yes but we don't play mid level Championship sides every week.

We conceded 17 shots to fecking Newport mate.

You coming out with 6/4 is completely arbitrary

If you don't think Coventry will have a right good fecking go at us today you will be in for a shock. It's a cup final for them and we are absolutely shite.

12.5 shots is very low and 1.83 for that represents good value on statistics alone.

Over the season we have conceded 745 shots in our 44 games. Taking into account standard deviation that gives 12.5 roughly a probability percentage value of ~75% which is around 1/3. Even being generous to Coventry and assuming their level is below ours is still nowhere near the 6/4 you're suggesting. My true price taking everything into account, like I said is about 8/13 so it represents value at 5/6.

 

[Utd heap]

We conceded 17 shots to fecking Newport mate.

You coming out with 6/4 is completely arbitrary

If you don't think Coventry will have a right good fecking go at us today you will be in for a shock. It's a cup final for them and we are absolutely shite.

12.5 shots is very low and 1.83 for that represents good value on statistics alone.

Over the season we have conceded 745 shots in our 44 games. Taking into account standard deviation that gives 12.5 roughly a probability percentage value of ~75% which is around 1/3. Even being generous to Coventry and assuming their level is below ours is still nowhere near the 6/4 you're suggesting. My true price taking everything into account, like I said is about 8/13 so it represents value at 5/6.

Thanks for that completely incorrect way of pricing that up. I work in sports trading.

Anyway game of opinions, has a good chance of coming in so hopefully you land your bet at the wrong odds .

 

[Berbaclass]

Thanks for that completely incorrect way of pricing that up. I work in sports trading.

Anyway game of opinions, has a good chance of coming in so hopefully you land your bet at the wrong odds .

Oh so that makes you right

Good to know.

 

[Utd heap]

Oh so that makes you right

Good to know.

Not at all, no - but it does mean I know your explanation was bollocks.

My trains pulling into London now so sadly this must end. Feel free to tag me in later when it lands and I'll argue more 6 cans deep.

 

[Berbaclass]

Not at all, no - but it does mean I know your explanation was bollocks.

My trains pulling into London now so sadly this must end. Feel free to tag me in later when it lands and I'll argue more 6 cans deep.

My explaination wasn't bollocks at all. You pulled a number out of thin air and said nothing to back it up.

I gave you a very basic reasoning behind what the probability should be and why it's closer to what I think the value is. I'll say again, it's nowhere near 6/4. That is incredibly optimistic.

 

[One Night Only]

So did the Coventry shots bet come in? Which one of you won the argument?

 

[Spiersey]

On Ac Milan u19 win tomorrow @1.85. Make it around 1.4 fair, market probably drops it to 1.4.
Olympiakos very fortunate to be in the final, been 2nd best every round so far. Nantes missed a few sitters in the semis (and they aren’t great themselves). Bayern game was a joke, keeper made two huge errors and Bayern conceded 3 goals in 5 minutes. Probably don’t lose that game if you play it another 20 times. Lens were 2-0 up and gave away a pen then keeper kicked it off attacker for 2-2. Inter should have beat them as well.

Milan are very strong, fortunate to get past Madrid and Porto, last 2 rounds, but those two were probably the best sides in the comp. Pretty big gulf for me, similar to Az v Split last year; first goal usually the hard one and then it can end a decent score. Should be the game that Olympiakos finally get found out.

 

[Ayush_reddevil]

Really think that Arsenal at 2/1 are good value for the title, I just don’t see city winning every game and so I think they have a good chance

 

[One Night Only]

On Ac Milan u19 win tomorrow @1.85. Make it around 1.4 fair, market probably drops it to 1.4.
Olympiakos very fortunate to be in the final, been 2nd best every round so far. Nantes missed a few sitters in the semis (and they aren’t great themselves). Bayern game was a joke, keeper made two huge errors and Bayern conceded 3 goals in 5 minutes. Probably don’t lose that game if you play it another 20 times. Lens were 2-0 up and gave away a pen then keeper kicked it off attacker for 2-2. Inter should have beat them as well.

Milan are very strong, fortunate to get past Madrid and Porto, last 2 rounds, but those two were probably the best sides in the comp. Pretty big gulf for me, similar to Az v Split last year; first goal usually the hard one and then it can end a decent score. Should be the game that Olympiakos finally get found out.

I remember reading this and being gutted I didn't have the money to put it on.

What the hell happened?

You're usually so spot on with these type of things.

 

[Utd heap]

So did the Coventry shots bet come in? Which one of you won the argument?

It didn't come in.

They only had one first half, ran it closer second half.

The bet could have come in and i'd still argue I won the argument. It was a pricing / value debate.