Football & Sports Betting Thread 2023/2024

Utd heap said:
Yes but we don't play mid level Championship sides every week.
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We conceded 17 shots to fecking Newport mate.

You coming out with 6/4 is completely arbitrary

If you don't think Coventry will have a right good fecking go at us today you will be in for a shock. It's a cup final for them and we are absolutely shite.

12.5 shots is very low and 1.83 for that represents good value on statistics alone.

Over the season we have conceded 745 shots in our 44 games. Taking into account standard deviation that gives 12.5 roughly a probability percentage value of ~75% which is around 1/3. Even being generous to Coventry and assuming their level is below ours is still nowhere near the 6/4 you're suggesting. My true price taking everything into account, like I said is about 8/13 so it represents value at 5/6.
 
Berbaclass said:
We conceded 17 shots to fecking Newport mate.

You coming out with 6/4 is completely arbitrary

If you don't think Coventry will have a right good fecking go at us today you will be in for a shock. It's a cup final for them and we are absolutely shite.

12.5 shots is very low and 1.83 for that represents good value on statistics alone.

Over the season we have conceded 745 shots in our 44 games. Taking into account standard deviation that gives 12.5 roughly a probability percentage value of ~75% which is around 1/3. Even being generous to Coventry and assuming their level is below ours is still nowhere near the 6/4 you're suggesting. My true price taking everything into account, like I said is about 8/13 so it represents value at 5/6.
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Thanks for that completely incorrect way of pricing that up. I work in sports trading.

Anyway game of opinions, has a good chance of coming in so hopefully you land your bet at the wrong odds ;).
 
Utd heap said:
Thanks for that completely incorrect way of pricing that up. I work in sports trading.

Anyway game of opinions, has a good chance of coming in so hopefully you land your bet at the wrong odds ;).
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Oh so that makes you right :lol:

Good to know.
 
Berbaclass said:
Oh so that makes you right :lol:

Good to know.
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Not at all, no - but it does mean I know your explanation was bollocks.

My trains pulling into London now so sadly this must end. Feel free to tag me in later when it lands and I'll argue more 6 cans deep.
 
Utd heap said:
Not at all, no - but it does mean I know your explanation was bollocks.

My trains pulling into London now so sadly this must end. Feel free to tag me in later when it lands and I'll argue more 6 cans deep.
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My explaination wasn't bollocks at all. You pulled a number out of thin air and said nothing to back it up.

I gave you a very basic reasoning behind what the probability should be and why it's closer to what I think the value is. I'll say again, it's nowhere near 6/4. That is incredibly optimistic.
 
On Ac Milan u19 win tomorrow @1.85. Make it around 1.4 fair, market probably drops it to 1.4.
Olympiakos very fortunate to be in the final, been 2nd best every round so far. Nantes missed a few sitters in the semis (and they aren’t great themselves). Bayern game was a joke, keeper made two huge errors and Bayern conceded 3 goals in 5 minutes. Probably don’t lose that game if you play it another 20 times. Lens were 2-0 up and gave away a pen then keeper kicked it off attacker for 2-2. Inter should have beat them as well.

Milan are very strong, fortunate to get past Madrid and Porto, last 2 rounds, but those two were probably the best sides in the comp. Pretty big gulf for me, similar to Az v Split last year; first goal usually the hard one and then it can end a decent score. Should be the game that Olympiakos finally get found out.
 
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Really think that Arsenal at 2/1 are good value for the title, I just don’t see city winning every game and so I think they have a good chance
 
Spiersey said:
On Ac Milan u19 win tomorrow @1.85. Make it around 1.4 fair, market probably drops it to 1.4.
Olympiakos very fortunate to be in the final, been 2nd best every round so far. Nantes missed a few sitters in the semis (and they aren’t great themselves). Bayern game was a joke, keeper made two huge errors and Bayern conceded 3 goals in 5 minutes. Probably don’t lose that game if you play it another 20 times. Lens were 2-0 up and gave away a pen then keeper kicked it off attacker for 2-2. Inter should have beat them as well.

Milan are very strong, fortunate to get past Madrid and Porto, last 2 rounds, but those two were probably the best sides in the comp. Pretty big gulf for me, similar to Az v Split last year; first goal usually the hard one and then it can end a decent score. Should be the game that Olympiakos finally get found out.
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I remember reading this and being gutted I didn't have the money to put it on.

What the hell happened?

You're usually so spot on with these type of things.
 
One Night Only said:
So did the Coventry shots bet come in? Which one of you won the argument?
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It didn't come in.

They only had one first half, ran it closer second half.

The bet could have come in and i'd still argue I won the argument. It was a pricing / value debate.
 
Definitely! Another season of football and sports betting is always exciting. I've been into sports betting for a while now, and it's a great way to add some extra thrill to watching games. I make sure to play on verified sites to ensure a fair and secure experience.
 
amitattias said:
Definitely! Another season of football and sports betting is always exciting. I've been into sports betting for a while now, and it's a great way to add some extra thrill to watching games. I make sure to play on verified sites to ensure a fair and secure experience.
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What's going on here then :lol:
 
One Night Only said:
So did the Coventry shots bet come in? Which one of you won the argument?
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I mean value is subjective right but IMO the fact that they didn't at all turn up and had a single shot in the first half and the bet still won indicates that my reasoning was fairly sound.
 
amitattias said:
Definitely! Another season of football and sports betting is always exciting. I've been into sports betting for a while now, and it's a great way to add some extra thrill to watching games. I make sure to play on verified sites to ensure a fair and secure experience.
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Thank you, Chat GPT. Now, come up with a list of 10 funny nicknames for our bald-not-gold manager.
 
I put a £30 bet on 500/1 for West Ham to finish in the top 6. At the time it seemed promising but the mathematical position they’re in now they need to win their last 3 games and Newcastle need to lose their last 3…that’s not to mention the outcomes of the other teams in between :nervous: I can’t cash out but at least I used the bet credits that I was eligible for and not my actual money :lol: (I never put more than £10-£20 on a bet if I’m using my actual money rather than credits)
 
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I think a red card in Liverpool/Spurs is a good bet. Two teams whose seasons are effectively over, both have lots of European internationals who might fancy an early summer break to avoid any injuries and possibly miss the Euros by playing in meaningless games.

3/1 for red. 66/1 for Van Dijk to be sent off.
 
1xbet has settled my bets incorrectly and their customer care is of no help and making arguments against their own rules without any logic.

What rights do I have in such cases and is there anywhere I could complain to get my bets resettled correctly?

Please suggest, thank you.
 
Dortmund to qualify at 11/10 seems quite generous to me. I know PSG are at home but Dortmund have the lead and PSG give chances away.

Build a bet -

Dortmund to qualify
Goal in both halves: yes
Both teams 3+ corners
Dortmund 30+ booking points
PSG 20+ booking points

11/1
 
My UK friends, can you recommend some websites that are good for lucrative cashouts?
 
I've been loading up all week on Arsenal Over 20.5 shots v us tomorrow. Average price is around @ 1.83.

That City result means they need goals now so I think goes in my favour.
 
All away wins today in the Prem. Do I cash out?

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Got lucky here, as Sofascore were slow to update the starting Xl which had Mbappe and Dembele as starting the game. Had it displayed the correct line up, I wouldn't have placed the bet.


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Paddy Power offered a free £1 bet for the Man Utd vs Arsenal game.
 
Woke up to this
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Extremely fortunate given Nottm Forest were 2-1 up in the 74th minute and managed to lose 3-2.
 
Any final day punts? I'm thinking plenty of goals so looking at BTTS. Also like an in form Palace -1 @2.87 against a nothing to play for Villa
 
Jamesy18 said:
Any final day punts? I'm thinking plenty of goals so looking at BTTS. Also like an in form Palace -1 @2.87 against a nothing to play for Villa
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I've gone with a £10 punt on - Man Utd ML + Real Madrid ML + Rangers ML + Celtic ML.
Debating whether to also place a £5 punt on Chelsea ML + Brest ML + Barcelona ML + Nice Double Chance.
Also waiting for the Bayern Line up to be revealed. Currently EVS to beat Hoffenheim as its not clear if the likes of Sane or Kane will start.
 
I only really bet on the football matches these days and as the season is nearly over, I looked around my various betting accounts and had around £95 sitting there.

Lumped it all on Usyk to beat Fury tonight.
 
SteveCoppellFan said:
I only really bet on the football matches these days and as the season is nearly over, I looked around my various betting accounts and had around £95 sitting there.

Lumped it all on Usyk to beat Fury tonight.
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Hopefully your bet includes the SD. Nice pick!
 
SteveCoppellFan said:
I only really bet on the football matches these days and as the season is nearly over, I looked around my various betting accounts and had around £95 sitting there.

Lumped it all on Usyk to beat Fury tonight.
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Congrats! It must've felt edgy in those first few rounds!
 
I thought Usyk won the first 3 rounds but after 6 rounds I thought Fury was taking over and felt the bet was going to lose.

But fair play to Usyk, he turned things around and I was not happy with the ref in round 9, did not need to jump in and give a 8 count, Usyk could have knocked him out there, plus I felt the ref took an age to count and another age to make sure he was ok to continue and then the bell went !

Fair play to Tyson for seeing it through to the end after that round.

If i am honest, once the guy said the judge had given it to Fury by one round I was fully expecting a draw to be announced, but once it was a split decision, I was quite confident Usyk would get the decision.

But hey, this is boxing after all.

I was also convinced I saw Frank Warren say to Tyson he had lost the decision.
 
Tuchel to United, De Zerbi to Chelsea, McKenna to Brighton, 100/1 treble
 
United 8/1 to win the final seems borderline crazy. Are we really that much of an underdog now ?
 
Over 1.5 goals in every group game of the euros at a 1000/1 is worth a shot. Theirs always a 0-0 though isn’t there.
 
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