GBP Taking a hammering

Flight-to-safety, which is why the CHF has been tremendous in the past couple of years (vs. EUR and vs. USD):

screenshot20110624at851.png


scaled.php


Reckon Greece will get the austerity measures btw, it's either that or austerity measures are forced upon them with an added bonus of no access to capital markets for a couple of years.
 
McLovin said:
Yeah I'd wager it'll keep dropping, just can't see any news out of the UK that'll likely change the BoE's stance (i.e. the economy will likely continue to struggle meaning they'll keep rates low). While the EUR will as likely go up or down depending on the Greek crisis.

Most traders on my work-floor have been been dumping the GBP and picking up other currencies all week.
Click to expand...

If you believe the Bank's inflation forecasts, then yeah. But if they're wrong (intentionally or not), and inflation jumps significantly, then it could be a different story.
 
RK said:
But I need to buy Euros!

Should I do it now or wait a few days? It'll be better by then, right?
Click to expand...

Depends on whether or not the Greek parliament vote in favour of these austerity measures (which they're doing right now - in the middle of massive riots).

If they don't, then sterling will definitely recover in the short term. If they do vote in favour then it's only going to get worse (IMHO) You'll find out what happened on the evening news.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Depends on whether or not the Greek parliament vote in favour of these austerity measures (which they're doing right now - in the middle of massive riots).

If they don't, then sterling will definitely recover in the short term. If they do vote in favour then it's only going to get worse (IMHO) You'll find out what happened on the evening news.
Click to expand...
Heads or tails? What do you think is most likely?

And thanks Nick...
 
What you've got to keep in mine is that the markets have already fully priced in an ECB rate hike in July (which today was emphatically signaled by JC Trichet) and nearly fully priced in a yes vote for the austerity measures.

Which means that the EUR should not go further up tomorrow if the austerity measures are approved, but there's a bucket load of downward risk still there if something negative happens.
 
McLovin said:
What you've got to keep in mine is that the markets have already fully priced in an ECB rate hike in July (which today was emphatically signaled by JC Trichet) and nearly fully priced in a yes vote for the austerity measures.

Which means that the EUR should not go further up tomorrow if the austerity measures are approved, but there's a bucket load of downward risk still there if something negative happens.
Click to expand...

Ah. This is good news.

I want make an offer on a new house by the end of this week (in euros) but won't complete sale of my current place (in sterling) until July 15th. All this uncertainty about how much I can afford is causing me a lot of sleepless fecking nights.
 
That's why banks hedge most of their positions (which you could do)! Can't afford the added risk of having FX rates swinging the wrong way around. Unless it's a speculative trading desk of course.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Ah. This is good news.

I want make an offer on a new house by the end of this week (in euros) but won't complete sale of my current place (in sterling) until July 15th. All this uncertainty about how much I can afford is causing me a lot of sleepless fecking nights.
Click to expand...

At this very moment (19.12) the euro is on an upward trend against the GBP.
 
RK said:
But I need to buy Euros!

Should I do it now or wait a few days? It'll be better by then, right?
Click to expand...

Unless you are converting in massive volumes the differential should be minimal, I however had the pleasure of spending a year stateside with sterling accounts when the markets imploded in 2008 - in the space of ten weeks my buying power fell 35%.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
I want the euro to plummet.

Unfortunately, it's sterling that's fallen off a cliff.
Click to expand...

You might want to take a look at askaboutmoney.com.
It has some useful pointers that might be helpful in your situation.

Mortgages and buying and selling homes - Askaboutmoney.com

There has been a pretty significant exodus of retail deposits out of Ireland in the last year or so; folks fear that the deposit guarantees would be worthless in the event of debt default. Many are moving their savings to Northern Ireland and the current exchange trend might make that more appealing.

You, presumably out of necessity, are swimming against the flow; but it might be worthwhile consulting an Independent financial Advisor to discuss your options. Depending on circumstances and risk profile, you might, for instance, consider taking on a (bigger) euro mortgage and leave some of the Stg in situ (at the best available deposit rate) and hope for a Stg rebound down the road...at which point, convert, and repay some of the euro mortgage.

At the very least you should be wary of the actual retail exchange rates offered by the lending bank. There are cheaper transfer alternatives:

Transfermate - International money transfer service

Etc.

Check around.
 
Finally managed to cash in my purchase of the Pound against the US dollar. Was sitting on a loss of $700 for days but let it ride. Managed to come out with a profit of $9!!...party,party
 
Half the people on the trading floor standing up and watching the TVs (while I post on the Caf), incredible :lol:
 
There's an implementation vote tomorrow still to be done.
 
It's at near flat right now. Futures are down.
 
Bloody Euro is costing me a $500 loss against the £ at the moment!! Brought this morning at 0.90132 currently at 0.89814
 
ukbob said:
Bloody Euro is costing me a $500 loss against the £ at the moment!! Brought this morning at 0.90132 currently at 0.89814
Click to expand...

That's a position of around $141,000 then (I think!). Trying to be the next George Soros?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.