Goal Difference

[Stack]

Over the years I have noticed that the teams in the top 2 or 3 places always have a significantly higher goal difference than everyone else. I know this is probably pretty obvious to all but even at this early stage in the season does it point to the eventual winner? In the past it has as far as I have been able to tell but this season Chelsea and Spurs are the two front runners and i just dont expect either of them to win the league. Unfortunately our GD is off the pace despite our being within touching distance of the top. From what i have watched over the years we will need to significantly improve our goal difference to be a real contender.

 

[SirReginald]

Correct me if I’m wrong but hasn’t goal difference only contributed to a single title?

Goal difference matters more for champions league places (3rd-5th usually) than it does to 1st and 2nd place.

As for not expecting Chelsea or Spurs winning the league, fine it’s opinion I’m sure a lot of people have but please don’t include that in a sentence about you guys being potential challengers ever again this season. Things need to dramatically change for that to happen.

 

[Chipper]

Yes, the teams at the top usually have the best goal difference.

I think it can be used to pick up some underlying pattern sometimes or a suggestion of quality. If there's a team with a significantly worse goal difference than those around them in the table it can suggest that maybe they're not actually that good, perhaps been a bit fortunate in certain games. Not always but I think it's a thing at times. Norwich finished 3rd with a -4 goal difference in 92/93 for example, letting in 65 goals along the way. I think that flattered them and they took some hammerings off the better teams. The opposite can apply too.

Overall though which comes first, the GD or the points? If you win games you improve your GD, if you improve your GD you win games and gain points.

As for this season so far I'd say we're still in the realms of just one game possibly throwing things off. If my aunt had balls she'd be uncle (transgender people not withstanding), but if that 1-6 defeat against Spurs doesn't happen because Martial doesn't get sent off in a parallel universe and Spurs win by 2 instead it makes then their GD 3 worse and ours 3 better. Plus we have a game in hand of course.

Liverpool's 7-2 loss at Villa was another big one, City 2-5 Leicester as well and City are another with a game in hand. I think it's a bit early to read much into it all.

 

[Stack]

Correct me if I’m wrong but hasn’t goal difference only contributed to a single title?

Goal difference matters more for champions league places (3rd-5th usually) than it does to 1st and 2nd place.

As for not expecting Chelsea or Spurs winning the league, fine it’s opinion I’m sure a lot of people have but please don’t include that in a sentence about you guys being potential challengers ever again this season. Things need to dramatically change for that to happen.

The point wasnt that goal difference decides a title but the size of goal difference is consistently significantly higher among the top 2 or 3 contenders. I think you need to reread what I said about our own situation, you have clearly misinterpreted that.

 

[Siorac]

Over the years I have noticed that the teams in the top 2 or 3 places always have a significantly higher goal difference than everyone else. I know this is probably pretty obvious to all but even at this early stage in the season does it point to the eventual winner? In the past it has as far as I have been able to tell but this season Chelsea and Spurs are the two front runners and i just dont expect either of them to win the league. Unfortunately our GD is off the pace despite our being within touching distance of the top. From what i have watched over the years we will need to significantly improve our goal difference to be a real contender.

It makes sense, really: teams that score more goals and win games by several goals tend to be better teams than those who just grind out one-goal wins.

Early on it can be a little misleading because of uneven fixtures, form, and so on but a team with a single digit goal difference at the halfway point is very very unlikely to win the league.

 

[rcoobc]

Yes GD is usually a very good indicator of who is punching above their weight and who isn't.

Our poor GD shows the lie of our position in the league

 

[shaky]

So to have a better chance of winning the league, we need to score more goals and/or concede less goals. Genius. Don't know why anyone hasn't thought of this before.