Breaking the stats out, hopefully I got these right:
League
The top scorers in the league have won 18 out of 28 titles in the Premier League era (64.3%)
The most titles the top scorers have won in any given 5 year period is 5 (09/10-13/14)
The fewest titles the top scorers have won in any given 5 year period is 2 (12/13-16/17 & 14/15-18/19)
The longest winning streak for top scorers is 5 (09/10-13/14)
The longest run without a title for the top scorers is 3 (14/15-16/17)
Cups
The league's top scorers have won 15 cups in 28 seasons at a ratio of 0.54 cups per season.
The most cups the league's top scorers have won in any given 5 year period is 5 (15/16-19/20)
The fewest cups the league's top scorers have won in any given 5 year period is 1 (4 times - 92/93-96/97, 93/94-97/98, 08/09-12/13, 10/11-14/15)
The most years in succession the league's tops scorers won a cup is 3 (17/18-19/20)
The longest run without a cup for the league's top scorers is 3 (92/93-94/95 & 10/11-12/13)
At least 1 cup was won by the league's top scorers in 13 out of 28 seasons (46.4%) so no cups in 15/28 (53.6%)
Combined
During the most successful run of league title wins for the top scorers (09/10-13/14) they won 5 league titles + 1 FA Cup and 1 League Cup
During the the least successful run for the top scorers (12/13-16/17) they won 2 league titles + 2 league cups
The league's top scorer either won the league, a cup or both in 22 of 28 seasons (78.6%) and were trophyless 6 times (21.4%).
Bottom line
It has to be A. The worst the top scorers have done is 2 league titles and 2 League cups in any given 5 year spell. It's not guaranteed like option B because who knows, we could set a new worst, but I'd have to fancy us to get at least 1 title and 1 cup which is option B and we'd be very likely to do better. We might even win all 5 titles by being top scorers just like Chelsea, United and City did between us from 09/10-13/14. The guaranteed entertainment option almost guarantees us more success than the guaranteed success option just as long as we don't buck the trend and become a statistical outlier.
Edit: Getting even nerdier, if the chance of winning the title is 64.3% for the top scorers, the chance of winning zero titles in 5 years of being top scorers is 0.357 x 0.357 x 0.357 x 0.357 x 0.357 = 0.0058 x 100 = 0.58% (if I've done that right
). Top scorers will therefore win at least 1 league title 99.42% of the time in any given 5 year period assuming PL trends continue.
Season | Top scorers (goals) | Title win? | Cup wins? |
1992/93 | Blackburn (68) | No | 0 |
1993/94 | Newcastle (82) | No | 0 |
1994/95 | Blackburn (80) | Yes | 0 |
1995/96 | United (73) | Yes | 1 (FA) |
1996/97 | United (76) | Yes | 0 |
1997/98 | United (73) | No | 0 |
1998/99 | United (80) | Yes | 2 (CL,FA) |
1999/00 | United (97) | Yes | 0* |
2000/01 | United (79) | Yes | 0 |
2001/02 | Arsenal (79) | Yes | 1 (FA) |
2002/03 | Arsenal (85) | No | 1 (FA) |
2003/04 | Arsenal (73) | Yes | 0 |
2004/05 | Arsenal (87) | No | 1 (FA) |
2005/06 | Chelsea/United (72) | Yes | 1 (LC)** |
2006/07 | United (83) | Yes | 0 |
2007/08 | United (80) | Yes | 1 (CL) |
2008/09 | Liverpool (77) | No | 0 |
2009/10 | Chelsea (103) | Yes | 1 (FA) |
2010/11 | United (78) | Yes | 0 |
2011/12 | City (93) | Yes | 0 |
2012/13 | United (86) | Yes | 0 |
2013/14 | City (102) | Yes | 1 (LC) |
2014/15 | City (83) | No | 0 |
2015/16 | City (71) | No | 1 (LC) |
2016/17 | Spurs (86) | No | 0 |
2017/18 | City (106) | Yes | 1 (LC) |
2018/19 | City (95) | Yes | 2 (FA, LC) |
2019/20 | City (102) | No | 1 (LC) |
* United didn't enter the FA Cup, did win the inter-continental cup but I'm putting that as a 0
** Joint top scorers, Chelsea won the title but no Cups, United won the League Cup but no title
