Has COVID (somewhat) levelled the playing field in the top leagues?

Botim

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Looking at the financial impact of corona, you would maybe expect the smaller clubs to have suffered most, but in reality it's the big hitters who are hurt more than anyone (in the top divisions at least, the lower leagues are obviously even worse off).

As our knucklehead-in-charge has often implied, these top clubs are ran like multinational corporations nowadays, aiming for infinite growth to please their shareholders. A major disruption such as this pandemic puts enormous pressure on this model.

This endless loop of ever higher worldwide viewership > more tv money > higher wages > excessive transfer sums > need for even more income > ... has been thoroughly disrupted. Look at a club like Barcelona, who were already living on the edge and are now in a full blown financial (and sportive) crisis. It was noticeable in the summer window as well. There were no really big spenders, except for Chelsea, who were sitting on a mountain of Hazard-cash. I expect the next transfer window to be even more conservative.

Of course the "smaller" clubs are hit badly as well, but they were never throwing around the obscene sums of the big clubs anyway. The PL is somewhat of an outlier, because of the huge TV deals. But even clubs like us and Liverpool will be hit pretty hard. Matchday income alone is 3-5 million/game.

Looking at the top 5 leagues, the impact seems instant:

Serie A: Juve in 4th, already 6 points off the top.
La Liga: Real in 4th, Barcelona in 9th
Premier League: top 7 clubs within 4 points of each other (assuming the Manchester clubs win their game in hand)
Ligue 1: PSG 1 point ahead, but have already lost as many games as they did in the entire season last year
Bundesliga: Bayern 1 point ahead, but looking more vulnerable that in the past years

Will this last? It seems unavoidable that football clubs will need to rethink their spending strategies post-corona. Will this lead to more competitive leagues? Or will everything be back to "normal" within a couple of years.

I really hope some good can come out of this. As professor Chris Brady said:

"The greatest opportunity for all sporting organisations is the chance to engage in deep internal analysis around potential restructuring of the organisation, and the business model, that would ensure viability for the future after COVID-19. It is an opportunity to think in radical terms. As with many innovations, the 'burning bridge' is a powerful incentive. The prospect of a financial meltdown 10 times worse than that of the 2008 recession is such a burning bridge."
 

MUFromLTU

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Top clubs (most of them) had more games last year, longer season + had players leaving for international games, on the shortest break between seasons that in at least the past 20 years.

It's been always like that, to some extent, but now it's just felt so much more because the break was smaller. We always start next season slow, if we need to push for top4 until last game (+ play EL), same happens with most clubs going to European finals nearly every year.

Things will go back to normal after we have a proper break.
 
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In terms of revenue decreases, the bigger clubs, at least those with fans (so not city), will feel it more, as obviously the match day revenue is far more for United than Southampton.

in terms of this season, no crowds have levelled the impact of the big teams and their crowd. Whether that effect in refs (debatable), effect on home, and away players and the changing pressure. It’s all had an effect. This will clearly change, probably next season when we have big crowds back.

I would hope that there might be some financial levelling, but doubt it in the long term.

the biggest issue will be clubs in L1 and L2, it may take several years, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see a lot of clubs wound up as a result.
 

Champ

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I think eventually the tables will level themselves out and you will see the usual teams atop their respective divisions.

It will be a tad unpredictable until the New Year due to numerous reasons, but mainly down to the lack of pre season for the teams who went furthest in Europe last season and the lack of training time all teams had at the beginning of the season. We are beginning to see the table take shape now however after 10 games, after 15 it will be the usual teams fighting it out,

Certainly the lack of big transfers other than Chelsea also has an impact across the board, as the bigger teams need to balance the books and so will try to offload their fringe players anyway they can, look at Barkley, Martinez, Rodriguez, add to that the amount of players who didn't get a renewed contract this year who went on a free: Thiago, Welbeck, Willian, Cavani, Clyne, Silva, Lallana and many more, all a distinct level above what usual free transfers are. These free transfers were spread about the league as well, so the quality then filters through right the way down the league.
 

Botim

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In terms of revenue decreases, the bigger clubs, at least those with fans (so not city), will feel it more, as obviously the match day revenue is far more for United than Southampton.
To illustrate the above, this was projected a while ago:



But I think there will have to be changes longterm. The huge financial crisis (that hasn't even begun yet) is surely going to have an impact on more than just ticket sales. Our net debt is already at more than 400m, it can't keep rising forever.

Most obvious changes would be lower wage and transfer sums. (Or, God forbid, the top clubs forming their Super League to keep chasing infinite financial growth...)
 

giorno

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Big clubs play in europe and lose their players to international breaks. Smaller clubs don't. Throw in the lack of pre-season, longer season in 19/20 for several big clubs, and the lack of fans and reduced pace and intensity that comes with that, the reduced ability to significantly strenghten through the market, and the answer is yes, COVID has leveled the playing field a bit
 

thatsme

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All of our top 6 clubs have been raking it in for years and shouldn't be under any kind of financial pressure. The ridiculous transfer fees and obscene wages were unsustainable and sooner or later they were going to bite them on the bum, with or without the virus.
 

Zehner

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I think it levels the playing field from a competitive sports perspective. But economically, top clubs have much more diversified revenue streams than smaller ones. I guess that a larger proportion of the revenue of top clubs is independent from stadium attendances compared to smaller ones. It's always about proportions, not absolute numbers.

I mean, throughout the lock downs top clubs were never in any existential crises but small clubs still are. Their players may be fitter during the season but they'll suffer more from it financially. In the long term, Covid will probably even widen the gap instead of closing it.
 

SirReginald

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I really don’t think it will long term. Any issues weighing down the big clubs is also weighing down the smaller clubs on a larger scale.
 

Web of Bissaka

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Serie A: Juve in 4th, already 6 points off the top.
La Liga: Real in 4th, Barcelona in 9th
Premier League: top 7 clubs within 4 points of each other (assuming the Manchester clubs win their game in hand)
Ligue 1: PSG 1 point ahead, but have already lost as many games as they did in the entire season last year
Bundesliga: Bayern 1 point ahead, but looking more vulnerable that in the past years
Is it Covid, it's still early or those teams have weakened?

Juve is close to Inter pts wise, similar with last season. AC Milan had a great start and form.
Real and Barca are weaker now compare to before. We know about Barca already, Real is having a slow start but still close enough to #1. I bet Bale save them plenty of pts last season, anyone knows? Atletico is also improving.
PL top teams - since the restart, Pool's form drop to normal while City's is getting worse. Spurs upwards form is a surprise and yet the pts differences are still close. So it''s basically normal. Pool and City are not having their superb consistency like 2-3 seasons ago.
PSG lost their keyman CB Silva. Their defense is a lot weaker, losing more games is as expected.
Bayern is interesting, but then their defense is always susceptible. They've lost Thiago, a damn good DM. Less protection to their open defense.

For me it sounds like most of those teams have "weakened" in terms of squad quality. Few of those are contexts specific.
 

Chipper

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How's matchday income calculated? I thought it included ticket sales but looking at that graph I'm not sure.

Take burnley, average attendance (18/19) of 20,534 x 19 matches assuming no cup games at all = 390,146 tickets sold

6m matchday income according to that graphic/390,146 = £15.38 per fan in attendance. Tickets cost more than that on their own, no? Then there's pies, programmes, parking etc.Possible cup games on top too.They won't have as many or as fancy executive boxes as some clubs but they will have some as well.
 

RedSky

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I really don’t think it will long term. Any issues weighing down the big clubs is also weighing down the smaller clubs on a larger scale.
It'll have an impact short term i'd say. The next 12-18 months the gap will be closed and the major clubs will continue to struggle with a bunch of exhausted players. But it'll quickly go back to normal once the dust has finally settled.
 

giorno

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Real and Barca are weaker now compare to before. We know about Barca already, Real is having a slow start but still close enough to #1. I bet Bale save them plenty of pts last season, anyone knows?
Is that a joke or what?
 

Botim

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If Arsenal lose or draw (which, judging by their form, they very well might), none of the "Big Six" will have won this weekend.

Can't find the stats, but can't remember that happening in recent years
 

Botim

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And there we go, first time in a long while none of the "Big" clubs have won in a single weekend.

A collective 4 out of 18 points.

It's going to be an interesting season for sure