I've heard the maxim that a great keeper is worth an extra 12 points in a league year. How many points do you think having Dave here this year will save us over the league year ? And do you believe the likes of Neuer, Courtois, and De Gea save their clubs 12 points in a given year ?
How many points is a great keeper worth ?
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Nik (@Rood) and Imran (@Annihilate Now!) discuss United's fantastic win away against Athletic Club in the semi-final of the Europa League.
They also pick out the positives of United's 4-3 loss away at Brentford, and Nik reviews a day out at Old Trafford watching Manchester United Women qualify for the Champions League.
All I know is that De Gea single-handedly kept us in some games last year, at least 4-5 times. 12-15 points wouldn't be an overstatement.
Also breeds confidence throughout the rest of the team to have a world class keeper, that can't be accounted for in stats.
Also breeds confidence throughout the rest of the team to have a world class keeper, that can't be accounted for in stats.
I'd say about ten. One thing to consider is a goalkeeper can't win you a game technically they can only draw you a game.
It's ok saying he won us games we had narrow leads but the goals win you games just as much.
It's ok saying he won us games we had narrow leads but the goals win you games just as much.
Well let's take when Romero was in goal. We had a solid defence, in front of a dodgy keeper. For much of last year it was pretty much the opposite, great keeper and average defence. With De Gea, we now have both. Wouldn't surprise me to see us get an extra 10 points minimum from it.
It would be fair to say he saved us 2 yesterday just from the two saves he palmed away to his right that other keepers may have let slip by.
4 or 5 times means 8 or 10 points.
It depends on the ability of the defenders. If you have a fantastic defence, then a great keeper will save those few big chances that the defence concedes. A crap defence with a great keeper, like we saw with De Gea most of last season, will save you about 10-15 points.
If for example, you put an average keeper in a team like Bayern or Barcelona, they might cost 5 points or fewer compared to a great keeper. There's also the fact that some teams are absolutely excellent in attack, so even if the keeper fecks up, they can just score another 2 or 3 goals to make that mistake meaningless.
So I guess in a team like ours where we're pretty dull in attack, a great keeper is worth a lot of points. Even if our defence is sound, you're always going to get those few chances every game that the keeper needs to be alert for. If that goal goes in because of an average keeper, United will struggle immensely to get a goal back and thus that keeper will have cost the team some points.
If for example, you put an average keeper in a team like Bayern or Barcelona, they might cost 5 points or fewer compared to a great keeper. There's also the fact that some teams are absolutely excellent in attack, so even if the keeper fecks up, they can just score another 2 or 3 goals to make that mistake meaningless.
So I guess in a team like ours where we're pretty dull in attack, a great keeper is worth a lot of points. Even if our defence is sound, you're always going to get those few chances every game that the keeper needs to be alert for. If that goal goes in because of an average keeper, United will struggle immensely to get a goal back and thus that keeper will have cost the team some points.
Good point. By all accounts it looks like we have a solid defense in front of one of the world's best keepers this year.
Only if you assume we'd have still drawn.
What I don't like with this type of logic, is that by the same train of thought if the goalkeeper doesn't make a doable save he costed you points.
A great keeper compared to a league-average keeper? I'd guess it would average 4-6 points per season.
Well yea, obviously.
4-5 times probably means either 1 or 2 points extra each time (loss to draw or draw to win). This probably equates to about 6-8 points. Still significant.
So it's far less then what people think.
Assuming the the great and average keeper have comparable defense in front of them.
Well no, because you factor that in.
DDG won us an awful lot of points by himself the last few seasons.
Yeah, you're right -- but momentum shifts from saves at 0-0 in matches we went on to win rather than lose always has to be considered. 8 or 10 or 12 or 15, either way, it's a big number.
Yeah, at the very least we're talking 8 points. Which is a huge number when things are tight in championship winning seasons, or seasons like last year where CL qualification is paramount.
Depends on the comparable keeper. De Gea over Romero would probably be 8-10 points. De Gea over a solid PL keeper like Begovic I'd say around 6.
If we look back to last season for an example of how many points a great keeper would save:
2-1 win v Everton at home, De Gea saved a penalty and pulled off another great save. Could have been a draw or defeat for United, so that's 2-3 points saved
2-1 win v Arsenal away, De Gea saved so many shots from Arsenal in that game. Could have easily been 2-0 down in the first half making it almost impossible to claw a result back. 3 points saved.
3-0 win v Liverpool at home, at most if could have ended a draw for Liverpool, we put it out of sight quickly but brilliant saves when we were 2-0 up could have ended the game in a draw, 2 points saved
2-1 win v Palace away, struggled all game and De Gea pulled off a brilliant save to seal us 4th place, could have ended as a draw so that's 2 points saved.
9-10 points saved from those games. There's probably more I'm forgetting like the wins against Stoke and West Ham at home where we were pegged back near the end of games, but those particular games above stood out for me. When you take every game in account it's probably about 15 points saved, just an estimation.
It's obviously all very highly subjective, there's no guarantee that United would have dropped those points if there was no De Gea as they could win those points regardless, but it does show that a good keeper can do wonders for a struggling defence.
2-1 win v Everton at home, De Gea saved a penalty and pulled off another great save. Could have been a draw or defeat for United, so that's 2-3 points saved
2-1 win v Arsenal away, De Gea saved so many shots from Arsenal in that game. Could have easily been 2-0 down in the first half making it almost impossible to claw a result back. 3 points saved.
3-0 win v Liverpool at home, at most if could have ended a draw for Liverpool, we put it out of sight quickly but brilliant saves when we were 2-0 up could have ended the game in a draw, 2 points saved
2-1 win v Palace away, struggled all game and De Gea pulled off a brilliant save to seal us 4th place, could have ended as a draw so that's 2 points saved.
9-10 points saved from those games. There's probably more I'm forgetting like the wins against Stoke and West Ham at home where we were pegged back near the end of games, but those particular games above stood out for me. When you take every game in account it's probably about 15 points saved, just an estimation.
It's obviously all very highly subjective, there's no guarantee that United would have dropped those points if there was no De Gea as they could win those points regardless, but it does show that a good keeper can do wonders for a struggling defence.
we would've saved at least 1 already this season, for starters.
But how do you decide which saves are only doable by a great goalkeeper and which aren't? In the premier league pretty much all the goalkeepers are able to make great saves on a fairly regular basis.
A lot of soft goals are mainly due to poor defending in the first place, you can't really put those goals on the goalkeeper.
A great goalkeeper will save you points, but it's not possible to know how much points they save you, because it depends on how every goals and saves have been made.
If we had somebody like Begovic in net last season we might have been 6 points worse off but De Gea did have a fantastic season, in a normal season the difference maybe as little as 3 or 4 points.
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6 points at best, average goalkeepers aren't shit, for example the goal from Gomis is a goal that De Gea already conceded.
Edit: But the more saves they have to make, the more points the great goalkeeper will gain.
It depends on the quality of your defence. For example, DDG may be even better this year than last however his impact, judging by our defence this year compared to last, is likely to be worth less points.
Yeah, but the against Palace was a save you expect most good keepers to make. Also the first game against Arsenal, where I am sure Valdes would have made the saves (I was more impressed in the FA cup). Against Liverpool I do agree, but not with the number of saves, as I am sure Valdes would have made the one on one saves (he proved it against Hull), as Sterling was really horrible in these situation, he literally just shot strait at de Gea but I liked the save against Balotelli. Actually, the one on one I am sure Cillessen would have made them and people complain against him.
Just look at the second goal against Swansea and the blame Romero is getting (and he should). If these de Gea saves were WC, or brilliant, then we can't blame Romero for the goal against Swansea, because in these sitaution the only thing a GK has to do is to position himself corectly and if the striker scores, great job from the striker if not it's mostly the strikers fault.
Don't get me wrong, these saves were esential and good, but you shuould expect them from a good keeper and I don't think they should count towards this discussion. It's like with Romero against Tottenham, we could say that he saved us 2 pounts, but I actually expect a GK to save these (it were still very good saves).
I do agree about the Everton game, the last save was brilliant, but also the one few minutes before. One I think you are forgeting is the one against Newcastle, that was also a really good save in the last seconds.
He also conceded a dodgy goal against Villa, but we won the game.
De Gea will save us points for sure, but he could also cost us some as he is not controling the penalty box, but people just ignore it. I think the real question in this topic is the number of points a GK gives from saves most of the GK wouldn't make and usually it's not more than 5-6, but that is also a huge number.
It's impossible to answer. It might be less - it might be more. You can argue both ways
Less - well, it's impossible to say that only de Gea would have saved this and that shot. Yesterday he made a couple of decent saves - but a keeper who is almost as good as de Gea would probably have saved those exact same shots. They weren't impossible to save. The one match that stood out for me last season was the Liverpool-game simply because no other keeper in the World has his goalkeeping technique, so I am pretty certain that with another keeper, Liverpool would have scored at least once. But - yet again, would it mave med a difference in terms of us winning ? Doubful.
More - the best argument for saying that a World-class goalkeeper saves you a lot of Points - is perhaps not so much that he actually saves them. It's more the fact that his teammates know that he CAN save them - so they can play with more composure. It's like those times under Ferguson when our opponents could go 1 or 2 up - but the entire team KNEW that we could get back into the game despite going 2 down. I feel the biggest difference a goalkeeper of his class makes is that he boosts confidence in the side - and that is probably worth than those 2-3 World-class he has every season.
Less - well, it's impossible to say that only de Gea would have saved this and that shot. Yesterday he made a couple of decent saves - but a keeper who is almost as good as de Gea would probably have saved those exact same shots. They weren't impossible to save. The one match that stood out for me last season was the Liverpool-game simply because no other keeper in the World has his goalkeeping technique, so I am pretty certain that with another keeper, Liverpool would have scored at least once. But - yet again, would it mave med a difference in terms of us winning ? Doubful.
More - the best argument for saying that a World-class goalkeeper saves you a lot of Points - is perhaps not so much that he actually saves them. It's more the fact that his teammates know that he CAN save them - so they can play with more composure. It's like those times under Ferguson when our opponents could go 1 or 2 up - but the entire team KNEW that we could get back into the game despite going 2 down. I feel the biggest difference a goalkeeper of his class makes is that he boosts confidence in the side - and that is probably worth than those 2-3 World-class he has every season.
5-8 probably. But it's hard to work out in points the lift and momentum that a great save at a key moment and confidence in a great keeper gives a team in a match, so 5-8 points goes out the window depending on this, that's why some are saying as much as 15 points I suppose.
At least we have a full year to target and get another world class keeper sorted whilst still having the Dave now.
At least we have a full year to target and get another world class keeper sorted whilst still having the Dave now.
I thought he made a very good save that went unnoticed by the commentary and analysis. That one from Ings where he's already dived before the shot comes in, but somehow manages to hang in the air long enough to tip it round the post. I was sure that was a goal watching it live.
That was an excellent save, really good, the only problem with that is that his mistake led to that actually
.While you're right about goals winning games, those saves also protect the win or a draw. There were plenty of games where De Gea won us the points by making world class saves.
Hard to figure how many points he saves us a year, but over the last 2 seasons he saved us plenty. Honestly think we would have missed out on the 4th spot last year if he was not in such awesome form.
Sufficed to say he was the difference between being in the CL and not.
The value of a world-class GK has an inverse relationship with the overall quality of the team. The worse a team is overall, the bigger impact a great GK will have; as a team become better and better overall, however, the difference between having a good GK vs. a great or world class GK become negligible.
De Gea was tremendous for us last season when we were in shambles. We were a crap team but he single-handedly made sure we got 3 points instead of 1 on several occasions.
This season, I think we've certainly improved a bit, and with the defense being more reliable so far it takes a lot of pressure off of the GK position. And our defense is only going to get better- as long as Shaw, Smalling and Darmian stay healthy and continue to play together and improve we're going to have a fantastic back line for years to come, and that obviously puts a big strain on opponents and limits the number of quality chances they get...which in turn makes the importance of having a world class GK behind them a bit smaller.
I'm envisioning some of the great Barcelona of Bayern teams of recent years, teams that were so talented from one end of the field to the other that often times the GK wouldn't even face a shot on target in a match. Teams that put such a distance between themselves and the 2nd place team in the league that it was a foregone conclusion that the title was already determined. In a team like that you could stick almost any GK between the sticks and you'd get the same result you got with having Neuer or in-prime Valdes back there.
De Gea was tremendous for us last season when we were in shambles. We were a crap team but he single-handedly made sure we got 3 points instead of 1 on several occasions.
This season, I think we've certainly improved a bit, and with the defense being more reliable so far it takes a lot of pressure off of the GK position. And our defense is only going to get better- as long as Shaw, Smalling and Darmian stay healthy and continue to play together and improve we're going to have a fantastic back line for years to come, and that obviously puts a big strain on opponents and limits the number of quality chances they get...which in turn makes the importance of having a world class GK behind them a bit smaller.
I'm envisioning some of the great Barcelona of Bayern teams of recent years, teams that were so talented from one end of the field to the other that often times the GK wouldn't even face a shot on target in a match. Teams that put such a distance between themselves and the 2nd place team in the league that it was a foregone conclusion that the title was already determined. In a team like that you could stick almost any GK between the sticks and you'd get the same result you got with having Neuer or in-prime Valdes back there.
I think Swansea proved the difference between leagues of goalkeepers, you could clearly see De Gea would have stopped both of the Swansea goals. That would have been three or at worst one point from that game.
Not really. How many players last year besides De Gea won us points on their own by either saving a goal or scoring one? The team seriously lacked some inspired individual effort last season besides what De Gea showed us.
Yep, and you can't put a price on that!