Israel/Iran Showdown

Discussion in 'Current Events' started by Raoul, May 9, 2018.

  1. May 10, 2018
    #41

    Kaos Full Member

    Joined:
    May 6, 2007
    Messages:
    24,823
    Location:
    Ginseng Strip
    It really isn’t. Golaan is internationally recognised Syrian territory that’s occupied. Considering the countries are still at War the Syrians and their allies are well within their rights to take back territory that’s rightly theirs.
  2. May 10, 2018
    #42

    Kaos Full Member

    Joined:
    May 6, 2007
    Messages:
    24,823
    Location:
    Ginseng Strip
    The reason Hezbollah even exists was because of Israel’s annexation of South Lebanon in ‘82.

    But forget Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran for a minute. The international consensus demand seems that Israel returns to its pre-67 borders and vacate occupied territories. By refusing to do so, coupled to their ramped up settlement colonisation of internationally recognised Palestinian territories will only dignify any rebuttal of sovereignty.
  3. May 10, 2018
    #43

    Nikhil New Member

    Joined:
    Jan 3, 2007
    Messages:
    2,348
    Location:
    Form is temporary, bans are permanent.
    It is a very dangerous move to be carried out by the Iranians, regardless of whether the Golan is occupied or not. The US, Israel and Sunni Arab countries are against them. Turkey has been taking overtures to Saudi lately. All sides should act in a manner so as to deescalate the situation and prevent a war with the Iranis. Conflict and an invasion of Iran will be unbelievably tragic.

    The Saudi rulers aren't slaves of the US, as some may think. They are despicably tyrants who want to see the end of Iran. They must be so happy right now.
  4. May 10, 2018
    #44

    Kaos Full Member

    Joined:
    May 6, 2007
    Messages:
    24,823
    Location:
    Ginseng Strip
    Any hope of descalation died with Trump deciding to rip up the Iran deal, instead choosing to ramp up the aggressive rhetoric on Iran, along with their Israeli and Saudi allies.

    Also let’s wait before we jump to conclusions on the end game here. The Iranians are amongst the craftiest players in the regions, I’d wager there’s probably a lot more to this than we can make out at this point.
  5. May 10, 2018
    #45

    2cents Full Member Scout

    Joined:
    Mar 19, 2008
    Messages:
    9,978
    Israel never annexed southern Lebanon. The only territories Israel has annexed beyond the '49 armistice lines are East Jerusalem and the Golan.

    The international consensus is that they should be returned in exchange for peace and mutual recognition. That hasn't happened, the two states are still in a state of war, and so Israel's continuing occupation is legal (but not the annexation and settlements).
  6. May 10, 2018
    #46

    Kaos Full Member

    Joined:
    May 6, 2007
    Messages:
    24,823
    Location:
    Ginseng Strip
    It’s nothing to do with disclosure or the principled objection to Nuclear armament. The fear here is the power shift and leverage the Iranians gain as a potential Nuclear state, that scares the US and her allies more so than the idea of another nuclear state. The idea of regime change and covert attacks become a lot more complicated then.

    Just compare the leverage the North Koreans have over the doomed late regimes of Saddam and Gadaffi.

    As discussed, this situation became more macabre when the US and her regional allies made it clear they weren’t willing to oblige a deal that would seek to deescalate this.
  7. May 10, 2018
    #47

    Fearless Mighty Mouse

    Joined:
    Apr 24, 2003
    Messages:
    3,795
    Location:
    The 10" dick club
    Exactly.
  8. May 10, 2018
    #48

    Fearless Mighty Mouse

    Joined:
    Apr 24, 2003
    Messages:
    3,795
    Location:
    The 10" dick club
    Not really. Iran is a signatory to the NPT, Israel is not.
  9. May 10, 2018
    #49

    Fearless Mighty Mouse

    Joined:
    Apr 24, 2003
    Messages:
    3,795
    Location:
    The 10" dick club
    Really? They've just had 50 bases destroyed after their own attack landed in Syria, the rest taken out by the IDF's Iron Dome. Russia did nothing to stop Israel. The Sunni world is happy, and Trumps effectively bankrupted the Mullahs.
  10. May 10, 2018
    #50

    Synco Lucio's #1 Fan

    Joined:
    Jul 19, 2014
    Messages:
    3,195
    @2cents already answered on some aspects, so this more of an addition.

    And to "liberate all of Palestine".
    That argument only works if Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran (they really can't be left out when discussing this) were to recognize Israel's borders (ergo: existence) afterwards. My view is they won't. More importantly, it's their declared view as well. Revoking the foundation of Israel - reclaiming Islamic rule over this area through holy war - is ingrained in their religious and political identity.

    Counterexample: Egypt and Jordan have signed peace agreements with Israel, the borders are mutually recognized and respected. It either goes both ways or nowhere at all.
  11. May 10, 2018
    #51

    Mciahel Goodman Worst Werewolf Player of All Times Staff

    Joined:
    Apr 27, 2014
    Messages:
    29,095
    Can't be a direct war between the two because Israel has nuclear weapons and the US has been looking for a predicate to invade Iran since the Revolution of 78/79. Iranians won't overplay their hand, even if backed by Russia.

    With regard to proxy wars in Syria et al, that will most likely continue to intensify but it's something that's been happening in the region for decades in one way or another.

    A war with Iran would be catastrophic (for the entire world). The blowback from arming rebels in Afghanistan was the Taliban who hosted Bin Laden. The blowback from invading Iraq has been ISIS and the current civil war you see in Syria. An invasion of Iran, or direct war with Iran, would be Iraq intensified by many degrees. They have a highly developed military, revolutionary guard (3 million?) and a central state structure that isn't in threat of overthrow or in any way particularly weakened. Yes, you could defeat them easily in a conventional war (easily meaning causalities running into the millions for the Iranians and many thousands for US/Whoever). After that you have a failed state and a series of tribes and factions and it shouldn't have to be noted, but also a recipe for worldwide instability on a scale not seen since Vietnam.
    Last edited: May 10, 2018
  12. May 10, 2018
    #52

    rotherham_red Full Member

    Joined:
    Mar 12, 2005
    Messages:
    4,770
    Their actions in Yarmouk and other places where Palestinian refugees live in Syria say otherwise...
  13. May 10, 2018
    #53

    Synco Lucio's #1 Fan

    Joined:
    Jul 19, 2014
    Messages:
    3,195
    Could you expand?
  14. May 10, 2018
    #54

    The Firestarter Full Member

    Joined:
    Apr 8, 2010
    Messages:
    8,797
    I think Assad has some say in what is being conducted from his territory , otherwise it's basically an occupation.
  15. May 10, 2018
    #55

    Fearless Mighty Mouse

    Joined:
    Apr 24, 2003
    Messages:
    3,795
    Location:
    The 10" dick club
  16. May 10, 2018
    #56

    Kaos Full Member

    Joined:
    May 6, 2007
    Messages:
    24,823
    Location:
    Ginseng Strip
    Sorry annexation was the wrong term, they invaded South Lebanon during the civil war. The point is Hezbollahs formation is no accident of ideology.

    It’s a two way process. Israel doesn’t seem to even entertain the notion of returning to its pre-67 borders and its only attempts at reconciliation involve them forcing in a handful of unreasonable clauses which they know the Palestinians wouldn’t accept.

    Even Hamas are willing to accept a Palestinian state build on pre-67 lines.
  17. May 10, 2018
    #57

    Mr H Full Member

    Joined:
    Aug 8, 2014
    Messages:
    2,171
    This should be specified in the opening post IMO, you would think that the agression came from the Syrian first when 30 minutes after Trump's press conference there were reports on CNN that Israel attacked an Iranian position in Syria.

    The opening post doesn't pain the full picture in my opinion.
  18. May 10, 2018
    #58

    2cents Full Member Scout

    Joined:
    Mar 19, 2008
    Messages:
    9,978
    We were talking about Syria though, and immediately after the '67 war Syria was one of the states which issued the famous three "NOs" declaration on the question of peace with Israel. Despite a brief period of negotiations in the 90s, the Syrian stance remains unchanged since 1948 when they attempted to snuff out Israel just as it was born. So while negotiations may indeed be a two-way process, the onus is on Damascus to prove that it's serious about peace, especially since Israel holds the military and territorial cards. The Egyptian and Jordanian examples prove that Damascus could find a willing partner in Jerusalem should that happen - imagine if Bashar al-Assad pulled an Anwar Sadat and visited Jerusalem to speak before the Knesset?

    Of course Assad and others are well aware of what happened to Sadat as a result, and given that the Alawite-dominated Ba'th's legitimacy in the Arab world is inextricably tied to maintaining Syria's status as a confrontation state, it's impossible for him to make such a gesture.

    As for Hamas, yes they support the establishment of a Palestinian state in the WB and Gaza from where to continue the conflict with Israel.
  19. May 10, 2018
    #59

    Kaos Full Member

    Joined:
    May 6, 2007
    Messages:
    24,823
    Location:
    Ginseng Strip
    Forget the ideology of the faction. The fact of the matter is there was no Hezbollah pre 1982, it was created by Israel.
    Fun fact: Neither Egypt nor Jordan were required to recognise Israel as a Jewish state in their respective peace treaties. Meanwhile you have even the likes of Hamas willing to compromise on pre 67 borders (thereby foregoing the right of return).

    As for the likes of Hezbollah, they’ve been committed to a secular Lebanon where they’ve not attempted to enforce a theological footprint. If anything they, along with their Iranian sponsors have been instrumental in fighting extremist Islamic factions supported and funded by guess who.
  20. May 10, 2018
    #60

    Kaos Full Member

    Joined:
    May 6, 2007
    Messages:
    24,823
    Location:
    Ginseng Strip
    Nice spin. Those Palestinian refugee camps were caught in the crossfire in clashes between the Syrian armed forces and ISIS. There’s no Syrian/Iranian policy of deliberately targeting Palestinians.
  21. May 10, 2018
    #61

    Synco Lucio's #1 Fan

    Joined:
    Jul 19, 2014
    Messages:
    3,195
    Yeah, I know of this, and of the rift between Iran and Hamas caused by the Syrian War's sectarian dimension. My question to @rotherham_red was more about how his comment related to mine.

    I obviously don't know yet, but I guess we were simply talking of two different things. When I said "liberate all of Palestine", I was quoting the Islamist/Arab nationalist slogan for ending Israel. Here's Nasrallah:



    This is something very different from liberating Palestinians as actual people, serving their interests, or merely treating them well. Which seems he understood to be my intented message.
  22. May 10, 2018
    #62

    2cents Full Member Scout

    Joined:
    Mar 19, 2008
    Messages:
    9,978
    Where have you got that idea?
  23. May 10, 2018
    #63

    Water Melon before it dries out, eh

    Joined:
    Jan 22, 2014
    Messages:
    2,866
    Location:
    garden bed
    No shit Sherlock. Israel was allowed to not sign up and has nukes actually. Now tell us if Iran decides to quit IAEA and cancel NPT agreements, does it grant this country a right to have nukes?
  24. May 10, 2018
    #64

    Il Prete Rosso Prete, the Italian Pete

    Joined:
    Feb 11, 2012
    Messages:
    4,053
    Location:
    Ospedale della Pietà
    #Qatarlikesthis
  25. May 10, 2018
    #65

    Raoul Admin Staff

    Joined:
    Aug 14, 1999
    Messages:
    106,818
    Location:
    California
    Part of the quid pro quo of having Iranian forces on his territory is to allow them to take care of their own business, which generally means consolidating their positions as the slither closer and closer to Israel.
  26. May 10, 2018
    #66

    The Firestarter Full Member

    Joined:
    Apr 8, 2010
    Messages:
    8,797
    Until bombs start to fall on Damascus .
  27. May 10, 2018
    #67

    Ramshock CAF Pilib De Brún Translator

    Joined:
    Nov 20, 2007
    Messages:
    39,226
    Location:
    Swimming against a tide of idiots and spoofers
    Nor is how they treat the people in Gaza and the West Bank
  28. May 10, 2018
    #68

    Raoul Admin Staff

    Joined:
    Aug 14, 1999
    Messages:
    106,818
    Location:
    California
    That's on Assad then. If he allows a virus like the Quds Force to use his patch of Syria to position themselves for a guerrilla war against Israel then he will have to eat what's coming to him.
  29. May 10, 2018
    #69

    Van Gaalacticos Full Member

    Joined:
    Sep 22, 2014
    Messages:
    1,040
    Israel have made concessions previously and were then fecked over? They are constantly under attack and then people have a go at them for proactively defending themselves. They haven't forgotten the Holocaust and will defend their rights to their land to the hilt. What is the issue with that considering if in my opinion Israel laid down its arms it would be purged from the map.
  30. May 10, 2018
    #70

    Ramshock CAF Pilib De Brún Translator

    Joined:
    Nov 20, 2007
    Messages:
    39,226
    Location:
    Swimming against a tide of idiots and spoofers
    Dont give me this shit, they are fighting fecking pea shooters with brutal murderous force. Look Im not going to get into an argument over the Israel/Palestine conflict especially if someone thinks an aggressive military giant has legitimate reason to pen people in and shoot at them like fecking fish in a barrel and yeah its okay to even kill kids. Sorry mate Im not getting into it.
  31. May 10, 2018
    #71

    Synco Lucio's #1 Fan

    Joined:
    Jul 19, 2014
    Messages:
    3,195
    Why? It's crucial.
    As far as I know, it was created by Lebanese Shia Islamists and Iran. In response to the Israeli occupation of Southern Lebanon, of course. But in terms of fundamental goals regarding Israel you can perhaps relate to the Nasrallah statements I quoted a few posts above this one (#63).
    What?
    Which also reflects the objective demography of Lebanon. But I fail to see what Lebanese internal politics have to do with the original question of acknowledgement of certain borders. The discussion about Hezbollah's objectives was in connection with that.
    Honestly, your reluctance to even use the word "Islamist" in connection with Iran and their proxies says a lot.
  32. May 10, 2018
    #72

    Van Gaalacticos Full Member

    Joined:
    Sep 22, 2014
    Messages:
    1,040
    Fair play if you don't want to get into it but Palestine are the ones using child suicide bombers hence why children get shot. Like I say Israel have made concessions and been completely fecked over previously. Why are "pea shooters" attacking Israel? Would it not be better to let the situation de-escalate? Or can they just not stop until Israel is wiped off the planet despite any concessions Israel makes?
  33. May 10, 2018
    #73

    Zlatattack Full Member

    Joined:
    Feb 9, 2017
    Messages:
    4,373
    child suicide bombers? BS. 16 and 17 year olds. it doesn't explain bombing children playing on the beach and shooting babies.

    http://www.child-soldiers.org/document_get.php?id=966
  34. May 10, 2018
    #74

    Ramshock CAF Pilib De Brún Translator

    Joined:
    Nov 20, 2007
    Messages:
    39,226
    Location:
    Swimming against a tide of idiots and spoofers
    I am disagreeing with you because this debate, as with the NI debate, is just poison and one of us, likely me, will get rapped on the knuckles or get banned over it. So I am respectfully disagreeing with you on this.
  35. May 10, 2018
    #75

    Van Gaalacticos Full Member

    Joined:
    Sep 22, 2014
    Messages:
    1,040
  36. May 10, 2018
    #76

    Van Gaalacticos Full Member

    Joined:
    Sep 22, 2014
    Messages:
    1,040
    Fair enough, we will have to agree to disagree. I do agree however it's a poisonous debate. I'd certainly hope nobody got banned for expressing their opinion or exploring the possible options.
  37. May 10, 2018
    #77

    2cents Full Member Scout

    Joined:
    Mar 19, 2008
    Messages:
    9,978
    This is one of the bizarre consequences of the discourse produced by a certain section of the anti-Israel left during the Syrian Civil War - you have voices who do everything to paint groups like Hamas in a moderate, reasonable light defending Assad by portraying all the forces fighting against him as fanatic terrorists - despite Hamas sharing basically the same ideology and in most cases having been, historically at least, responsible for far more heinous acts.

    People who, often with good reason, criticise Israeli conduct during military operations in Gaza then turn around and justify the destruction of entire cities in Syria by Assad on the ground that "Assad is secular/Christians can celebrate Christmas again", etc. as if those things don't apply to Israel.
  38. May 10, 2018
    #78

    Fearless Mighty Mouse

    Joined:
    Apr 24, 2003
    Messages:
    3,795
    Location:
    The 10" dick club
    There's a name for that exceptionalism.
  39. May 10, 2018
    #79

    Kaos Full Member

    Joined:
    May 6, 2007
    Messages:
    24,823
    Location:
    Ginseng Strip
    This time last year Hamas said they were willing to accept a pre 67 Palestine as the foundation of their country. That surely can’t be compatible with the right to return. Granted it’s not exactly an olive branch of peace and they’re still reluctant for right or wrong to accept Israel’s sovereignty, but it’s a significant mellowing of viewpoints from Palestine’s most radical faction. What has Israel put forward in terms of compromise?
  40. May 10, 2018
    #80

    Revan Assumptionman

    Joined:
    Dec 19, 2011
    Messages:
    38,239
    Location:
    Munich
    To be fair Sultan, Israel never used nuclear weapons even when a lot of Arab states attacked it, and also doesn't threaten any other state with destruction. Their nuclear weapons are just a guarantee of their existence and I cannot blame them for that considering the treatment the world gave to Jews.

    I like both Israel and Iran (I don't like Biby or Ayatollah) and have only good experiences with people from those countries. I hope his doesn't escalate further.