Israel - Iran and regional players | Please post respectfully

Revan

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Raven said:
I meant more generally speaking. On this topic, we do appear to have similar views, I could never back a country that is committing genocide or apartheid. I can't quite wrap my head around the idea that others can.
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I think this is a bit reductionist, to be fair. For example, you are backing Palestine, despite that their democratically elected government (one of them) do terrorist attacks in Israel.

For what is worth, I do not back Israel in what is doing in Gaza. I wouldn't call genocide there, cause I think the threshold for it is higher, but it definitely with each day passing is looking that is going towards genocide, and even in the mild case, they are doing some horrific war crimes. And I definitely think that Israel is an apartheid state, I have said it many times here even before the war in Gaza, I think many Israel people admit it including high-ranking politicians (Barak for example).

But at the end, I understand that it is an extremely complex situation, I understand the situation in the Middle East and that there are not many good sides there (look at war crimes in Syria from all sides, including moderate ones like Turkey who bombs Kurds for fun, or Yemen), and it is an immensely complex situation with no clear solution. And Israel is an ally.

I would have said the same for many other states, the US did more atrocities than Israel ever did, in their Vietnam (and by extension Cambodia) war, the US and the UK kinda destroyed Iraq for no good reason, and still I really like the US and chose to live in the UK despite not being British. In grand scheme of things, I think that the Western countries are the lesser evil. Of course, this means feck all if you find yourself in the opposite side of them, as Palestinians are.
 

nickm

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Kaos said:
I mean Iran demonstrated they were willing to attack directly, if they themselves were directly under attack, which they were considering Israel's bombing of the consulate, which is considered Iranian territory under international law. So I don't see why we're placing the burden of escalation on them. They've also considered the matter resolved, so by choosing to retaliate to a retaliation, Israel are in fact prolonging and further risk destabilising the region.
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Not trying to assign blame, I did say both Israel's attack and Iran's response were at fault. My point is for those people who think that because face was saved, theatrical points were made etc., we have returned to the status quo... I am not sure that's fundamentally true.

1. The red line Iran crossed, theatrics aside, was a first ever direct attack on Israel. To Israel, that's what really matters.
2. Israel has just demonstrated it has a very effective shield against ballistic missiles - and there have long been concerns about the destabilising effects of such shields
3. Israel could easily feel their security response needs to have an extra deterrent effect, because of (1), and because (2) gives them a way to do it. Dangerous.

Even if Israel chooses to take a low key retaliation, I think those are quite significant changes.
 

neverdie

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nickm said:
Not trying to assign blame, I did say both Israel's attack and Iran's response were at fault. My point is for those people who think that because face was saved, theatrical points were made etc., we have returned to the status quo... I am not sure that's fundamentally true.

1. The red line Iran crossed, theatrics aside, was a first ever direct attack on Israel. To Israel, that's what really matters.
2. Israel has just demonstrated it has a very effective shield against ballistic missiles - and there have long been concerns about the destabilising effects of such shields
3. Israel could easily feel their security response needs to have an extra deterrent effect, because of (1), and because (2) gives them a way to do it. Dangerous.

Even if Israel chooses to take a low key retaliation, I think those are quite significant changes.
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The two are engaged in a constant proxy war which is as old as the Iranian Revolution. It is constant tit for tat behind the scenes and also when it comes front and center. They have, between them, established conventions at this point as how to coordinate missile strikes against each other with Israel knowing how much they can do and Iran knowing the same. It's farcical, but well rehearsed and known to each.

Iran is also surely among Israel's largest GDP trading partners, with side business in purchasing Israeli flags.
 

AfonsoAlves

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More explosions reported in Southern Iran.

EDIT Air Raid Sirens have apparently gone up in 6 Iranian towns.
 
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AfonsoAlves

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US Official has confirmed Israel has launched missile strikes on Iran, F-35 Squadron is operating in Iranian skies at this moment.
 

Raoul

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Seems they struck at the same time as the Iranian FM was threatening a harsher response if the Israelis responded.

"Immediate, decisive, and definitive".

Let's see if they stick to their rhetoric.

 

AfonsoAlves

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This is a bit sad to watch to be honest, AAA fire against cruise missiles and stealth fighters.
 

ManUtd1999

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I despise the Iranian evil regime, but Israel wants wars. They were looking for a war against Iran for many years. It’s finally happening.
 

Sweet Square

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ManUtd1999 said:
I despise the Iranian evil regime, but Israel wants wars. They were looking for a war against Iran for many years. It’s finally happening.
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If this turns out to true then yeah it seems like Israel wants a larger war. Before today both Iran and the US gave Israel pretty good excuses not to hit back.
 

Sir Matt

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Trying to be optimistic, I hope this is limited and doesn't result in more escalation. Bibi seems to want a regional war to trap the US and the West into maintaining full support for Israel to preserve his power and to allow him to finish his genocide in Gaza. There should be significant external pressure to force him out, but obviously there won't be.
 

ManUtd1999

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Sweet Square said:
If this turns out to true then yeah it seems like Israel wants a larger war. Before today both Iran and the US gave Israel pretty good excuses not to hit back.
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Israel doesn’t care anymore about what the U.S. says. We saw that over 6 full months in Gaza, and we see that now against a regional power.

In fact, the U.S., France, Germany and other countries urged Israel not to attack Iran, but here we are. Countries that literally helped Israel intercept the Iranian drones are being ignored. This is just wrong.
 

That_Bloke

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Sir Matt said:
Trying to be optimistic, I hope this is limited and doesn't result in more escalation. Bibi seems to want a regional war to trap the US and the West into maintaining full support for Israel to preserve his power and to allow him to finish his genocide in Gaza. There should be significant external pressure to force him out, but obviously there won't be.
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Can't see Iran not retaliating without looking like fools. They can also close the Ormuz Strait and shut down or reduce their oil production, and we'll feel it.

We're now in uncharted territories.
 
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WPMUFC

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Israel are being absolutely moronic here. This is not about anything more than trying to pressure the US into a regional conflict
 

Raoul

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Sir Matt said:
Trying to be optimistic, I hope this is limited and doesn't result in more escalation. Bibi seems to want a regional war to trap the US and the West into maintaining full support for Israel to preserve his power and to allow him to finish his genocide in Gaza. There should be significant external pressure to force him out, but obviously there won't be.
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Will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow. Market futures are tanking at the moment and crude futures are predictably soaring.
 

ManUtd1999

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That_Bloke said:
Can't see Iran not retaliating without looking like fools. They can also close the Ormuz Strait and shut down their oil production.

We're now in uncharted territories.
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In 1991, Israel was attacked by Iraq. President Bush then asked Israel not to respond. Israel listened and didn’t respond. It was seen as the adult in the room trying to avoid conflicts.

There is no more Bush and no Shamir, who was PM then. Worse, there is no more U.S. leadership. And with the lack of a voice who can say “no”, this happens.

Biden stood strong in face of the Russian attack on the Ukraine. But he has been very weak for months now. This is the weakest that a U.S. president has looked on a foreign policy matter in recent memory.
 

Dargonk

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Looks like things are only going to escalate now. The US really needed to pull the leash on Israel months ago, but seems the lack of real pressure has en-powered Israel to further escalate.
 

Raoul

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ManUtd1999 said:
In 1991, Israel was attacked by Iraq. President Bush then asked Israel not to respond. Israel listened and didn’t respond. It was seen as the adult in the room trying to avoid conflicts.
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That was necessary to prevent Saddam from successfully drawing other Arab countries into the conflict following an Israeli response to the SCUDs. This is a tit for tat situation with both sides believing they can't allow the other to have the last word. Its going to take some diplomatic leadership to sort this one out.
 

That_Bloke

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ManUtd1999 said:
In 1991, Israel was attacked by Iraq. President Bush then asked Israel not to respond. Israel listened and didn’t respond. It was seen as the adult in the room trying to avoid conflicts.

There is no more Bush and no Shamir, who was PM then. Worse, there is no more U.S. leadership. And with the lack of a voice who can say “no”, this happens.

Biden stood strong in face of the Russian attack on the Ukraine. But he has been very weak for months now. This is the weakest that a U.S. president has looked on a foreign policy matter in recent memory.
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They didn't respond because it served their own interests. The coalition was about to wipe out one of their oldest and most powerful enemies in the region. It would've also caused the Arab countries in the coalition to jump ship and most likely the others to side with Iraq.

Shamir, a former leader of the terrorist organization known as Lehi, was a hawk and a Likud hard-liner. If responding to the few Scuds missiles which were shot down anyway, was in the interest of Israel, you can bet your house that he'd have done it.

If you want a more compelling example of the US stopping Israel, you have to go back to Reagan and Israel's invasion of Lebanon.
 
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ManUtd1999

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Raoul said:
That was necessary to prevent Saddam from successfully drawing other Arab countries into the conflict following an Israeli response to the SCUDs. This is a tit for tat situation with both sides believing they can't allow the other to have the last word. Its going to take some diplomatic leadership to sort this one out.
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Agreed on both points.

Thing is, back then the U.S. had a word that meant something. Bibi does what he wants today because Biden let him do that.

Israelis used to respect westerners, generally. Then they stopped caring about Europeans (“only America’s views matter”), and now that don’t respect anyone. That wasn’t the case in 1991.
 

RedDevilQuebecois

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WPMUFC said:
I don't see how Iran just waves this off. There's got to be escalation.
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I was listening to David Sanger and a few pundits on CNN just a few minutes ago. They question the ability for Iran to actually afford an escalation as questions are now raised about the ability for the Iranian regime to protect their own airspace if things get more serious ahead. As far as things go so far, the Iranians have not said anything about having shot down any particular threat. Some of the pundits believe that we could revert to the shadow proxy war as the Iranian regime have lost the deterrence race.

In any case, Netanyahu can feck off as the cnut he is.

edit: One target was a military radar at the large air base there.
 
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