It's a documentation issue as well, because children here is anyone under the age of 18. It can be pretty difficult to discover if a dead body is that of a 16 year old or 20, especially if it has been bombed, shot in the head or ran over.
Israel - Palestine Discussion | Post Respectfully | Discuss more, tweet less
- Thread starter esmufc07
- Start date
A link is given at the very end to a table. You can see the daily totals in the final column.
The problem I have is that this guy has clearly chosen the period that he reckons shows the least variability, ok, but let's acknowledge that that's the reason he picked it. Then he opts to use a cumulative bar chart zoomed out to the thousands in order to illustrate a comparison between daily figures in the hundreds. Why? The best way to demonstrate variance between daily figures would be side by side daily totals with an average line running through them so the deviation from the mean could clearly be seen. Using his own figures here's what that would look like:
There's also trouble with an important data point the author uses. According to OCHA the death toll reported on 27th of October was 7326 deaths. The data in the author's table says 7362 deaths. This causes the author to miscalculate the number of deaths between Oct 27th and Oct 28th as 341. The correct figure is 377. That figure would be 40% higher than the mean. The 196 figure is 27% below the mean. The author translates this as "plus or minus about 15%". Also the figure of 196 and 377 dead highlight quite a large degree of variation on their own. Basically his analysis seems pretty misleading.
I haven't bothered to look too deeply into his claims regarding women and kids but my best guess would be that gender/age related information isn't collated as frequently and so is added to the overall numbers in a more haphazard fashion. That's why you have a couple of days where 0 female deaths were reported. Essentially gender/age data takes longer to filter through than the headline figure. When that data is finally announced (x women y children have died) it no longer relates to that specific day, but rather offers extra information regarding the total number of dead from any number of days previous. I'm not even sure if the actual headline figure itself is necessarily related to the actual dead of the day rather than an update given as and when information is received. It's probably closer to it, but still not completely accurate. If you remember back to covid, daily totals were constantly being revised days, weeks and even months into the future - and that's in a reasonably functioning system.
I don't like that the author has ignored basic explanations for the observed discrepancies.
Last edited:
Feck me. Just stop. Justifying genocide with propaganda makes you almost as bad as those carrying out the genocide.
That isn't how intent is interpreted in most cases. Usually if an action or set of actions can be forseen to have an outcome and they're still committed that's intent.
Given the genocide definition shared and the actions committed by Israel it's very hard to argue they didn't intend those consequences. They'd need to successfully argue they didn't forsee the deaths and harm caused which seems ludicrous.
I am not justifying anything. I was simply trying to relay the points made in this article. As we’ve since seen in this discussion there are other explanations for why the data looks the way that it looks which on first glance can seem suspicious.
I think that’s great, because that’s how we learn things and become more informed.
I alluded to this earlier in the thread. When you level entire neighborhoods at once, you can't claim that you didn't intend to kill everyone in said neighborhood. Even if your point was that out of thousands of people a few hundrands were Hamas members, your intent was to kill everyone.
I agree with you insofar as I’d also say that Israel seems to move with great aggression and little regard to civilian life in order to reach their military goals.
What I am less sure about is if that’s enough for the ICJ to get to a verdict of a genocidal intent.
Now, I guess what should also be said is that even if you are not quite committing genocide that doesn’t mean that you’re in the clear. Israel is clearly breaking international law and should be punished for it.
The author explains that the number of women and number of children killed should be highly correlated. He finds no correlation and claims this means the numbers must be called into question.
But here's an issue. The author's hypothesis is that the health ministry "settled on a daily total arbitrarily. Then they assigned about 70% of the total to be women and children, splitting that amount randomly from day to day." If "about" 70% of the total is always set to be women and children, then the total should be highly correlated to women+children. But in the data set that the author uses, women+children is not highly correlated with total. The data set is here. You can plot the data on Excel. The R2 value is 0.228.
In other words, the author is claming that a relationship requires correlation, then proposing a theoretical relationship (70% generated from the total) that is not supported by a correlation. Can't do that!
The average W+C daily toll %, if you calculate it from the table, is 72 ± 21%. That is a large amount of variance, and there are massive outliers in either direction. The reason why there are massive outliers is because there are days when some numbers are very low. For example, on days 4 and 11, the death toll for women is zero. This raises two questions: 1) what are the odds that a 'random' split gives you zero twice in fifteen days, and 2) if you are generating numbers via some random generator, or generating them yourself, why would you even make zero a valid output?
This isn't meant to be a "debunking" or anything like that. It's more to show that, contrary to what Giggsy PO stated, it's not "just maths." There are choices made in what you present, ignore, highlight, downplay, etc.
Last edited:
To be perfectly honest, this continuous argument that has been going on for months is fecking boring, it's also really starting to fecking piss me off because it's the same argument anywhere Israel/Palestine is being discussed anywhere on the internet.
In my own personal opinion it's genocide. It's not an argument, it's not in question and it really shouldn't be up for debate. I know in myself the definition of the word and the high casualty numbers, the way they have been attained through the systematic destruction and levelling of an entire region, the cruelty and indiscriminate way it has been done proves it. The bombing of areas people were told to move to and then hold up of aid, killing of people at aid trucks and the amount of starving people just cements the proof, if it were in any doubt.
More notably, the way the total eradication or Palestinians from the region being the goal has been admitted, even boasted by countless high ranking Israeli military and political figures including Netenyahu himself, on many occasions, leaves anyone who has no agenda without any doubt in their mind that the horrific events are an act of genocide and ethnic cleansing.
However, the pedantic nit picking and constant deflection often descending in to semantics is just fecking boring and ultimately detracts from the topics being discussed. It takes the conversation and often the entire thread off course and leads to a back and forth that ultimately serves no purpose other than distraction.
The point I feel that is being lost at times with this argument is that it's not only a futile argument, it's also unnecessary.
Anyone defending Israel will never admit this is genocide or that ethnic cleansing is taking place. They just won't.
Anyone who understands the definition of the word and looks at the evidence knows without question it is, so why waste time banging your head against a brick wall?
The ICJ know it is genocide, it's just politics is preventing them coming out and saying it, but I hope, eventually they will. I hope it is soon because it will put this whole argument to bed and stop the needless distractions and pointless back and forth. Of course many won't accept it or want to believe it, but at least in reply we can just say 'well it's been ruled on, so it is'
Maybe then the topic will focus on what's going on, how and why, and the unimaginable suffering of innocent people, because that is far more important than back and forth over the definition put to those events.
In my own personal opinion it's genocide. It's not an argument, it's not in question and it really shouldn't be up for debate. I know in myself the definition of the word and the high casualty numbers, the way they have been attained through the systematic destruction and levelling of an entire region, the cruelty and indiscriminate way it has been done proves it. The bombing of areas people were told to move to and then hold up of aid, killing of people at aid trucks and the amount of starving people just cements the proof, if it were in any doubt.
More notably, the way the total eradication or Palestinians from the region being the goal has been admitted, even boasted by countless high ranking Israeli military and political figures including Netenyahu himself, on many occasions, leaves anyone who has no agenda without any doubt in their mind that the horrific events are an act of genocide and ethnic cleansing.
However, the pedantic nit picking and constant deflection often descending in to semantics is just fecking boring and ultimately detracts from the topics being discussed. It takes the conversation and often the entire thread off course and leads to a back and forth that ultimately serves no purpose other than distraction.
The point I feel that is being lost at times with this argument is that it's not only a futile argument, it's also unnecessary.
Anyone defending Israel will never admit this is genocide or that ethnic cleansing is taking place. They just won't.
Anyone who understands the definition of the word and looks at the evidence knows without question it is, so why waste time banging your head against a brick wall?
The ICJ know it is genocide, it's just politics is preventing them coming out and saying it, but I hope, eventually they will. I hope it is soon because it will put this whole argument to bed and stop the needless distractions and pointless back and forth. Of course many won't accept it or want to believe it, but at least in reply we can just say 'well it's been ruled on, so it is'
Maybe then the topic will focus on what's going on, how and why, and the unimaginable suffering of innocent people, because that is far more important than back and forth over the definition put to those events.
SO if the ratio is so important and it claims to be 1:1 that according to you, is acceptable, Why Israel doesn't allow reporters and independent experts to be on the field and prove it? wouldn't be that precisely they don't want that?
The thing is over and over the numbers that ministery of health in palestine has been given had been always verifies and trust worthy. In the other hand, the numbers from Israel has not.
At the same time, they have the Schrodinger syndrome. Believing Hamas on the 6000 combatants but not believing the ministry of health of the total deaths
Also I believe a lot about partisan sources not being trustworthy, specially in war times and specially in the war of manipulation that israel has engaged. They had been lying or straightforward manipulated any minor thing like the UNRWA for the sake of mudding a completely 1 sided massacre and trying to legitimize it as self defense and as a regular war instead of a genocide
a side that tiktok army making a heart with their fingers while blowing up Universities and hospitals, not bombing but demolishing tells me everything I need to know what is its intent and numbers are just that, numbers. If they would be 10k children or woman it would be a tragedy and a genocide if made as intent and Israel will be disputing the numbers in a partidist article like that and will say is more like 5k. If it would be 30k, they would do the same and they would say is 15k and if it would be 100k, they would say the same and they would say 50k. And downplaying the numbers at any stage it causes the same effect of "is not that bad" when if you go from now at 15K (Israel sources) vs 30k (palestinian sources) to 50k vs 100k in november, it would have the downplaying effect missing the point that the 50k (from Israel ) in november is higher than the 30K (palesinian) now.
We can hide in articles as much as you want. We have thousands of pictures and videos of:
- IDF lauging at the destruction of universities and hospitals
-IDF laughing putting underwear
- Kids litteraly dying of starvation or prostrated in beds with clear symptoms of malnutrition while israel civilians supported by the IDF doesn't allow to enter aid
- kids being snipped in gaza and west bank while playing
- people being sniped to try to get water
- massacres of people being killed to try to get food
- Israelis celebrating rockets destrying everything
- Israeli celebrity singing that they will destroy and conquer gaza and everybody cheering
- kids maimed
- People in the west bank are getting killed the fastest rate ever, stealing the vegetables and fruits of their fields, cutting trees and burning them. Then stealing their houses
- Kidnapping in the west bank
- old women being sniped crossing the streets with kids
- high officials from the Israel government saying that all palestinians even the kids (that they are vermin) are guilty and deserve to day
- high officials that say that palestinians are subhuman animals
And much more. Numbers? a few thousands more or less matters little. There are literally tens of thousands under the premises of the proven pictures and videos stated above. This is genocide and we never had so much proof than now
Great post.
Tweet
— Twitter API (@user) date
I hate being right. It was absolutely bound to happen. Yet more needless deaths due to a political stunt that I still have no idea what they thought the benefit of it would be. Also, far more expense. The money spent on planes, crew, parachutes & equipment, fuel etc... when the money could have been used for more aid and loaded on to trucks who joined the queue of hundreds others waiting to get in to Gaza.
This world is a very, very sick place.
Just check point 3 and see the famine in Gaza now, It is not difficult to correlate their leaders speeches in the beginning of the war with the deliberate starvation in Gaza now, that if you ignore the deliberate bombing of the people and justify it by "Hamas is using the civilians as human shields" .
Tweet
— Twitter API (@user) date
people who have argued with holocaust deniers online will see some parallels
Let's be honest, did anyone expect hearing anything different to that?
Tweet
— Twitter API (@user) date
Always makes me laugh, "they should only have the bear minimum calories to survive, and we don't mind if they starve"
That'll help your hostages.
Incredible really, we were all waiting for the USA to reign in Israel given it's huge support and backing, yet now we're seeing, they literally cannot. A monster has been created and short of literal sanctions or military action against Israel, no one can stop them doing as they wish.
Curiously, anywhere else on the planet, military intervention starts.
Al Jazeera has IDF bodycam footage of soldiers killing some old guy in his house, while the old man shakes his hands and says no, later the soldier discusses it with his unit and they celebrate. According to twitter, Hamas later killed that soldier and so got the bodycam.
Tweet
— Twitter API (@user) date
shocking. Hopefully the IDF remove and arrest that soldier immediately.
To the surprise of no one except deranged zionists.
Also, we've seen at least 5 reports of sexual abuse from a few different organizations with direct testimonies from the victims. This stuff needs to be properly investigated to see if the Netanyahu government and the IOF leadership are sexually targeting Palestinians on a systemic level.
Also, we've seen at least 5 reports of sexual abuse from a few different organizations with direct testimonies from the victims. This stuff needs to be properly investigated to see if the Netanyahu government and the IOF leadership are sexually targeting Palestinians on a systemic level.
Won't be much of an IDF left if they extended the policy to the whole army.
This is the same shit with the rape claims and the beheaded babies. By the time the truth has come out the damage has been done. UNRWA has lost funding from the UK/US and it hasn’t been reinstated.
It’s why any and every claim that comes out of that apartheid genocidal regime should be dismissed and independently investigated before any action is taken.
Tweet
— Twitter API (@user) date
There are few dissenters so I wouldn't condemn the whole society but there is definitely a much bigger problem with how they view Palestinians than the other way around. It's the reality that was hidden for most people before the last 5 months.
Last edited:
We're only seeing this footage because that terrorist was thankfully put down. Though it makes you wonder how many of these murders have occurred that we'll never know about because some IDF terrorist deletes the footage afterwards, or it simply is never leaked.
What 'truth' is that?
You know. I’ve posted about it throughout this thread.
UN experts demand investigation into claims Israeli forces killed, raped and sexually assaulted Palestinian women and girls
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/20/...un-investigation-sexual-abuse-intl/index.html
I mean the stuff they admit and publish alone is full of the worst war crimes someone could imagine. There are also countless testimonies of similar stuff from Palestinians of every age.
The trouble is that gets put to the deepest and most meticulous levels of scrutiny, doubt and scepticism that simply isn't applied if the shoe were on the other foot. Often it gets dismissed as Khamas-state-sponsored propaganda or unverified. Even now I wouldn't be surprised if the harrowing clip above is accused of being doctored footage or a 'Pallywood' special.
My memory can't handle the amount of lies and BS in this thread.
I've stopped posting here because while there's so much that is correctly written against Israel and the IDF, there's also so much disinformation. No, there were no beheaded babies on October 7 as far as I know. But women were sexually assaulted. Those doing their best to deny that are disgusting. This just goes too far.
Fine, investigate.
Not that I pay attention to anyone saying "Pallywood" or any of that nonsense but the stuff they admit and show is enough to show their deranged mentality.
Tweet
— Twitter API (@user) date
As tragic as the situation is, it gets compounded by the clear hierarchy of concern that much of the Western world has for those who have borne the brunt of this "conflict"