I think it looks far more likely than not that it was a misfiring Islamic Jihad missile, but given that on the ground forensic examination isn't possible, I think that it is almost impossible to be as certain as you are saying.
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Hospital explosion explanation
I don't know why I'm so caught up with this specific thing. Israel have now made countless airstrikes, blown up countless families and children, destroyed thousands of homes, forced over a million to flee and denied the whole Gazan population basic supplies for going on a fortnight. Nontheless for some reason I feel obliged to reassert just why the evidence this was a malfunctioning rocket is so compelling to me.
1. Least compelling. Here's video footage from Netiv Haasara. One of the rocket seems to veer to the left. You can see the divergence best around 7 seconds. All other rockets proceed in a fairly straight line. A short time later an explosion takes place on the other side of a hillock. Unfortunately there is no clock on this footage:
2. Here's a fixed camera from Netivot. Again this shows what very much looks like the same barrage of rockets as (1) emanating from the Gaza Strip, one of which we witness exploding on the ground (at 18.59):
3. That explosion looks very much like another angle of the explosion that occurred in the Al Jazeera clip at the same time (again, at 18.59). This time we see the rocket malfunction, change direction and fall apart. The explosion at the hospital appears to take place some moments later right below its last position:
4. That explosion looks very much like the first angle that came to light:
Taken all together I feel these clips tell quite the compelling story. We see a bunch of missiles being fired around the time of the explosion. We potentially see a missile diverge from the pack. We certainly see a missile malfunction and fall apart in mid air. We then see an explosion on the ground below it moments later. I find it bizarre for the channel 4 reporter to maintain that there is no evidence to suggest a link between a missile that clearly malfunctioned, changed direction and fell apart and the explosion that occurred right below it seconds later. It's just inexplicable that someone could say that with a straight face.
Then, the next day instead of the expected destroyed hospital and rubble we are shown what is actually a fairly localised blast area with huge fire damage but little in the way of actual destruction.
Here's 3 Osint evaluations of that damage. These accounts are often cited in broadsheets so I guess they're at least somewhat legit. There are many more accounts saying the same thing:
All in all we see a very coherent picture. From the night before we witness rockets being fired from Gaza around the time of the explosion. We witness a missile malfunctioning and disintegrating at precisely the moment and in precisely the vicinity that the hospital was struck. We witness the explosion and huge fireball. The next day we have pictures straight from the site. Cited experts all seem to claim that the scene they're witnessing would be unusual for regular Israeli munitions but somewhat in keeping with a malfunctioning rocket igniting its unused propellant. This fits in very neatly with the story our eyes told us happened the night before.
It's not conclusive, but (to me at least) it is very, very persuasive.
1. Least compelling. Here's video footage from Netiv Haasara. One of the rocket seems to veer to the left. You can see the divergence best around 7 seconds. All other rockets proceed in a fairly straight line. A short time later an explosion takes place on the other side of a hillock. Unfortunately there is no clock on this footage:
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2. Here's a fixed camera from Netivot. Again this shows what very much looks like the same barrage of rockets as (1) emanating from the Gaza Strip, one of which we witness exploding on the ground (at 18.59):
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3. That explosion looks very much like another angle of the explosion that occurred in the Al Jazeera clip at the same time (again, at 18.59). This time we see the rocket malfunction, change direction and fall apart. The explosion at the hospital appears to take place some moments later right below its last position:
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4. That explosion looks very much like the first angle that came to light:
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Taken all together I feel these clips tell quite the compelling story. We see a bunch of missiles being fired around the time of the explosion. We potentially see a missile diverge from the pack. We certainly see a missile malfunction and fall apart in mid air. We then see an explosion on the ground below it moments later. I find it bizarre for the channel 4 reporter to maintain that there is no evidence to suggest a link between a missile that clearly malfunctioned, changed direction and fell apart and the explosion that occurred right below it seconds later. It's just inexplicable that someone could say that with a straight face.
Then, the next day instead of the expected destroyed hospital and rubble we are shown what is actually a fairly localised blast area with huge fire damage but little in the way of actual destruction.
Here's 3 Osint evaluations of that damage. These accounts are often cited in broadsheets so I guess they're at least somewhat legit. There are many more accounts saying the same thing:
https://rusi.org/people/bronkTweet
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No idea, dude has a substack and is cited by broadsheetsTweet
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All in all we see a very coherent picture. From the night before we witness rockets being fired from Gaza around the time of the explosion. We witness a missile malfunctioning and disintegrating at precisely the moment and in precisely the vicinity that the hospital was struck. We witness the explosion and huge fireball. The next day we have pictures straight from the site. Cited experts all seem to claim that the scene they're witnessing would be unusual for regular Israeli munitions but somewhat in keeping with a malfunctioning rocket igniting its unused propellant. This fits in very neatly with the story our eyes told us happened the night before.
It's not conclusive, but (to me at least) it is very, very persuasive.
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US lied pretty consistently with the same lie about civilian bombings in Afghanistan. Seems to be a common gameplan for powerful nations when they want to take something by force and have no qualms about the collateral of innocent lives
All this unfolds is that all of them are liars.
Including Western Government, UN, Israel, Hamas, Palestinian, BBC, Al Jazeera, there's nobody that we can uphold for their words anymore.
If they're not directly lying and fabricating total lies, they're weaponizing the lies, they are to at the very best weaponizing statement with careful wording which only aims is to defend the indefensible. Nothing is even beneath them.
There's a saying in my country that "Fitnah Lebih Kejam Dari Pembunuhan" which means "Slander is more cruel than murder"
Anyone who perpetrated such a misinformation should be traced and put into justice, there's so many times parties just lie their teeth out without any repercusions. One false tweet could lead to people getting killed in some parts of the world.
Including Western Government, UN, Israel, Hamas, Palestinian, BBC, Al Jazeera, there's nobody that we can uphold for their words anymore.
If they're not directly lying and fabricating total lies, they're weaponizing the lies, they are to at the very best weaponizing statement with careful wording which only aims is to defend the indefensible. Nothing is even beneath them.
There's a saying in my country that "Fitnah Lebih Kejam Dari Pembunuhan" which means "Slander is more cruel than murder"
Anyone who perpetrated such a misinformation should be traced and put into justice, there's so many times parties just lie their teeth out without any repercusions. One false tweet could lead to people getting killed in some parts of the world.
What an absolute legend
The train of misinformation is unstoppable these days with social media. Every side is fighting an information war to control the narrative using every opportunity to pass off any ‘content’ as newsworthy to push its agenda. It’s the same everywhere really. The problem is that most people aren’t skeptical of what they’re reading and hence just live in a bubble of reality created specifically for their ‘tastes’. No different here in my country - which is why I’m beginning to actually wonder how useful technology and SM is as beyond a certain point it seems to have lead to an erosion of consciousness - with either people more well informed than they ever were or people more misled than they ever were (at least in terms of scale).
Deny deny deny...do it in circumstances difficult to proof and that you control the narrative and you will never be considered guilty because there is that 0.0001% cast of doubt so they cant make you accountable and when they can, is too late
The rapes, beheaded babies, the hospital. No matter even the ones that say they are sure who did/didnt do it have a tiny tiny reasonable doubt. If you recognize you did it, they will condemn you so deny deny deny
I found the thread from Nathan Ruser very persuasive. The comparison of photos of Palestinian rocket hits from Ashkelon to the hospital showed the damage was quite similar and not like the damage from a larger bomb. One thing that he points out later in it is the lack of conspicuous debris from whatever struck the site, which would prove whose weapon hit the parking lot. If it were an Israeli weapon, Hamas would be showing it to every journalist they could find the day of the attack. I wouldn't be surprised if Hamas tries to present debris from another strike as evidence in this one over the coming days.
Just based on the OSINT, it appears that the failed Palestinian rocket is the most likely explanation for the explosion. Once it happened, it was easy to jump to the conclusion that the Israelis did it given everything else they've done over the last week. It didn't help that the Israeli's posted clearly incorrect videos in the immediate aftermath of the explosion.
I’ve said multiple times that certainty isn’t usually a thing (and that anyone saying otherwise is lying), so usually you go on best evidence good faith analysis. In this case I’m satisfied (and it seems US intelligence is too) that the evidence presented by a variety of experts who know what they are talking about is accurate to a large degree of confidence. The fact that it’s almost unanimous without dissent amongst people in the know, that hamas deny access to the site. When like me, you’re not an expert in everything, you need to trust the appropriate people.
In many respects I tend to agree, and I do tend to think it was an Islamic Jihad rocket that caused it, but in such circumstances I'm far more cautious as well as propaganda can cloud things very easily.
So this is what pisses me off. It may well be irrational and I’m sure I’ll get a load of insults. I touched on it before and will try to explain.
When something happens, something truly awful, people lurch to social media and use it as their media ammo to back up a point of view. They are so fecking detached from the reality of violence being actual life, and instead fire it from their cannon to backup a politidal viewpoint. When it’s pointed out the horrors don’t suit their viewpoint, they simply move on to the next bit of violence on social media to continue to perpetuate their goals.
The fact that truth barely matters is one thing, it’s the callous disregard for the reality to promote a view and build a truth for themselves. The actual people affected are discarded along the way, mere pawns to get what you want. When I see a picture of a dead guy, it’s a dead guy. He has a family, friends, aspirations, it’s all gone. Those dead babies hit by air strikes, their lives had barely begun. Yet you see people almost gleeful presenting them as an exhibit.
But I feel often in this thread, people are simply consuming suffering for the sake of media engagement to make a point. I realise this is quite a charge, but it often feels that way and is quite sickening. They ignore reality, truth, suffering, all for a goal.
And that goal often seems to sow chaos pain and more suffering.
When something happens, something truly awful, people lurch to social media and use it as their media ammo to back up a point of view. They are so fecking detached from the reality of violence being actual life, and instead fire it from their cannon to backup a politidal viewpoint. When it’s pointed out the horrors don’t suit their viewpoint, they simply move on to the next bit of violence on social media to continue to perpetuate their goals.
The fact that truth barely matters is one thing, it’s the callous disregard for the reality to promote a view and build a truth for themselves. The actual people affected are discarded along the way, mere pawns to get what you want. When I see a picture of a dead guy, it’s a dead guy. He has a family, friends, aspirations, it’s all gone. Those dead babies hit by air strikes, their lives had barely begun. Yet you see people almost gleeful presenting them as an exhibit.
But I feel often in this thread, people are simply consuming suffering for the sake of media engagement to make a point. I realise this is quite a charge, but it often feels that way and is quite sickening. They ignore reality, truth, suffering, all for a goal.
And that goal often seems to sow chaos pain and more suffering.
Understandable. As I said before, and in reference to the post above, in real terms it’s 50ish civilian casualties in a horribly brutal conflict and is relatively inconsequential. The attention it’s receiving at this point, is only to score political points on both sides, as well as to double down by people who can’t admit they were wrong.
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We've reached that stage with the hospital event that is just where we are as society now.
After an uncertain incident, numerous unbiased, expert opinions based on evidence, history and deep knowledge come forward showing a result that some people don't want to believe. The response is now basically a faith argument: you can't find me evidence that will convince I'm wrong.
The reason it's important is that before that event, there was a much better chance of ending this madness. There seems a world where the meeting would have gone ahead, had the misinformation not been so widely pushed out.
Israel are doing enough evil things that this, much like how babies were massacred by Hamas just doesn't matter. We're at such a strange place with the internet, tribalism and so forth that I really despair.
After an uncertain incident, numerous unbiased, expert opinions based on evidence, history and deep knowledge come forward showing a result that some people don't want to believe. The response is now basically a faith argument: you can't find me evidence that will convince I'm wrong.
The reason it's important is that before that event, there was a much better chance of ending this madness. There seems a world where the meeting would have gone ahead, had the misinformation not been so widely pushed out.
Israel are doing enough evil things that this, much like how babies were massacred by Hamas just doesn't matter. We're at such a strange place with the internet, tribalism and so forth that I really despair.
Two days after a Russian resolution failed to muster requisite votes, another resolution drafted by Brazil to call for humanitarian “pauses” to supply aid to Gaza, bit the dust in the UN Security Council (UNSC) on Wednesday after being vetoed by the United States.
The Brazilian draft resolution got ‘yes’ votes from 12 out of the 15 members of the Council, with Russia and the UK abstaining. The US wielded its veto to stop the resolution from being adopted.
The Brazilian draft resolution got ‘yes’ votes from 12 out of the 15 members of the Council, with Russia and the UK abstaining. The US wielded its veto to stop the resolution from being adopted.
The western leaders have blood on their hands, they can stop this genocide, but are choosing to enable it. History will not be kind to them.
Couldnt disagree with you more. This thread has been very tolerant and also stuck by the rules and not posted horrific videos and pictures of the innocent civilians and children caught up in this senseless violence.
People are powerless to do anything about it. Make a donation to a charitible cause to try to help. Go to a protest march if so inclinded. But whatelse can they do?
So they post and discuss whats happening in that region? Its a discussion forum after all.
Who "gleefully presents videos of dead people on here" ?
Get a grip.
annoyingly USA said no and UK abstained because the wording about israel having the right to defend itself was missing. Just add in the words so we can get humanitarian aid in.
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Thought this is a good listen: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/18/opinion/ezra-klein-podcast-israel-palestine.html
Its a very dark moment in modern human history. There aren't words sufficient to cover this appaling genocide.
Its setting the standard and lowering the bar for future conflicts everywhere else around the world. It's ok to murder civilians, its ok to bomb schools and hospitals. Its war. Collatoral damage.
The pain and suffering of the parents and children in this conflict is beyond words.
Yeah, again, that's not a disintegrated missle.
Wonder what the public reaction to that was in the US? Firstly, did it even make the main news there?
While what you're saying is right and is grim, this is all peripheral in a way. This conflict has been going on like this without the internet for decades. Has the internet changed anything material in this conflict?
The internet has added a layer of nonsense but hasn't changed all that much in Palestine. I was really hopeful 20 years ago that the internet would expose the horror of Palestine, and while it did, again it had no real effect.
The internet has s tremendous impact. Events are spread via social media minutes after they occurred. The press has to come with the news so fast that a thorough check isn't possible anymore.
Even renowned papers like the New York times posted the headlines "Israel bombed hospital in Gaza. Hundreds dead"
Based on what information? Based on organizations under Hamas control.
Once these fake news are out, they can't be controlled anymore with updates or revised information. Especially within the already enraged Arabic world. It's all a big, huge mess.
Even renowned papers like the New York times posted the headlines "Israel bombed hospital in Gaza. Hundreds dead"
Based on what information? Based on organizations under Hamas control.
Once these fake news are out, they can't be controlled anymore with updates or revised information. Especially within the already enraged Arabic world. It's all a big, huge mess.
If you mean the "OSINT" people, calling them 'unbiased' is a massive stretch.
Hang on a second, has it been confirmed what's what and who's who?
The US, The UK, The Israeli are not privy to being honest. They have lied in the past and will not be shy away to lie in the future.
This a very vile, calculated blatant lie, complete with fake evidence and fake testimony by the US Secretary of Defence in front of the whole world.
Where in my post did I write it has been confirmed?
Yeah the have lied, they all lie and if it comes out, it's excused with crucial state interests.
But still I see an huge difference between Western democracies and dictatorships like Russia and China. Islamic terror organisations like ISIS, Al Qeida or Hamas are then on even another level.
Good post. Very thorough. Although it obviously won't be the end of the arguing, even though it should be. The way this thread (and social media at large?) always seems to work is that people take a position on every event based on their underlying bias/agenda. They request a higher and higher burden of proof about anything they don't want to be true, to the point that they can never be convinced it actually happened. Which is the exact opposite approach to things they want to believe, where any hint of uncertainty is instead used as "proof" that it probably did happen. It's faith based arguing and makes the majority of back and forth in this thread completely pointless.
All very true. In this thread, on social media, and amongst some people I know personally, many are gleefully outraged that Israel could do something so horrible. Forget the injured and the dead, its just more points to score for them. Now the hospital incident looks more like a failed rocket than anything else the same people are either silent, or doubling down on their original accusations.
To be honest, I had always thought anti-semitism was overblown in the modern world but the last week has shown I was wrong.
Let's not do vague blanket insults. It just looks like a musguided claim of superiority of some sort.
If you have an issue with a post then engage or ignore. It's quite simple.
It's not anti-semitic to oppose Israel.
That's true, but what's the material effect of that on Palestine?
That's an effect on media mostly.
It's extremely naive to suggest that's all it is.
What's worse is that there is a financial incentive to make shit up and say outrageous things to rile up hatred, especially online.