Jarrad Branthwaite
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) and Jamie (@Vault Dweller) are here to talk about United's dreadful home defeat at the hands of Big Ange's Tottenham Hotspur. Should this have been the end of Ten Hag? How long does he actually have left? And does Nik finally want ETH out?!
I’m not totally sold on this guy. I now nothing. I wasn’t totally sold on Rice either but he's gotten even better in a better team. For that kind of money for a defender he would want to have almost world class potential.
The biggest problem is it’s so hard for a centre back to prove they are worth 60+ million. And that would worry me about Branthwaite. He’d have to play at such a high high level for people to not get on his back.
Well it seems these days that so long as the player is not shite then the fans do not seem to get on their back.
With players like Enzo and Caciedo and there are a lot more that cost a lot of money that are nowhere near putting out consistent performances that get close to matching their pricetag.
I think most home fans give a young player plenty of time to find their feet at first team level whether they are homegrown or brought in as long as the work ethic and attitude is there.
Point being we only have one good rcb in Varane who is probably leaving, we have a few lcb, hence not the priority
If Varane is the only cb leaving I imderstand your point. But that would be a surprise.
All of those are good PL players and he's better than all of them bar maybe Dunk or Maguire on their day, who are a lot older than him.
I wouldn’t say ‘we have a few lcbs’ tbh, and JB can play right side too in any case. He did so for PSV from what I saw.
I mean he just isn't similar at all to those players besides the fact that he plays for a bottom table side and is English
Given the English Tax we’ll be required to pay, I’d much rather we go for other more reasonably priced young CBs as there seems to be a few going.
If he’s one of 2 CBs then sound but if his price meant we had to settle for him alone versus [for example] Todibo + 1 I would go for the latter.
Here’s hoping Everton get relegated & need to negotiate a sale quickly.
If he’s one of 2 CBs then sound but if his price meant we had to settle for him alone versus [for example] Todibo + 1 I would go for the latter.
Here’s hoping Everton get relegated & need to negotiate a sale quickly.
You've named players in different 'brackets' to start with. Shambles
Absolutely as far as I am concerned they can all leave bar Martinez and would like to see how Kambwala develops but until that happens it cant be a priority , where as Varana still ot being offered a new contract leads to believe he will be off
The big question is will Dunk and Minge ever play together ?
Very unlikely odds are currently 6 / 1 for Everton to go down implied chance 15%
Branthwaite is brilliant easily up there with Jagielka, Lescott, Stones. If Maguire the donkey went for 80 million(lol) a few years ago then who knows what his value will be, especially him being homegrown and after a good tournament.
Talk of Real Madrid in for him, personally I think he should go there to the biggest club in the world, or we keep hold of him for another season if we don’t need to sell. Saying that it all depends how big the bags are.
I believe the idea was put out there, but Southgate wasn't Keane on Minge-Dunk.
He could easily end up on the bench at Madrid, thats the problem and he could not progress. I think he would have played this system because Nacho has played plenty because Militao has been injured. But in a normal season more famous names will be picked over him
Same here.
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If we know what's good for us we need at least 3 cbs in the summer for we are likely to lose 3 out of Varane, Lindeloff, Maguire and Evans this summer.
Two who are also naturals at one of the fullback positions.
Ideally that would be a rcb who can rb. A left cb who can play lb. And a two footed cb who can play rcb or lcb.
say like Todibo, Brainthwaite and Hincapie.
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Well he is faster than all of the players you mentioned, he is better in the air than all of the players you mentioned (bar maybe Dunk), he is much more comfortable on the ball than all of the players you mentioned.....does that mean he will be world-class ? No - but he has a lot more potential thatn those 5 players ever had
Price doesn’t bother me.
People scoffed at the fees paid for John Stones and Van Dijk. They’ve been two of the best CB’s in the last decade
If United/Ashworth think this guy is the next in line and will be one of the best PL defenders over the next decade, then do it
People scoffed at the fees paid for John Stones and Van Dijk. They’ve been two of the best CB’s in the last decade
If United/Ashworth think this guy is the next in line and will be one of the best PL defenders over the next decade, then do it
Sure, but that's probably also why we spent so much on Maguire.
Regardless, we are just not in a financial position to spend that much money on one player this summer. It's not even about taking a risk vs playing safe. Everyone has their opinions about which positions we need to buy in but I doubt you'll find anyone claiming we need fewer than three signings. Many would like four or five. If we sign a £100m player, we won't be able to sign good enough options in other positions.
Braithwaite is not near VVDs level when he was at Southampton. Isn't as good as Stones was too.
The majority of Everton fans would disagree regarding your Stones assessment and think Branthwaite is better than he was at the same age. Personally I think it's close, with Stones edging the technical side of the game and Branthwaite the defensive side.
VVD left Southampton at the age of what, 26? So Branthwaite has 5 years for that and at 21 he's putting in some impressive performances, both on the stat and eye test front.
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Is it that hard? For that money you'd need to do well yourself and have one of the top defensive records in the premier league as a team. Other clubs have spent more than £60 million on CBs so you dont really have to do more than they are unless its a or several players who most people agree wasnt worth half of that.
Lets take for example Arsenal. They bought both of their CBs for a lot less than £60 million and have the best defensive record. Assuming they still have one of the best defensive records at the end of the season then both of their CBs are probably worth £60 million or more depending on how highly you rate the contibution of the goalkeeper and fullbacks.
Next best records are City and Liverpool who have spent a lot of money on their CBs and you'd expect them to have top 3 record if not the top 2 the both of them. Really for City to have conceded 4 more goals than Arsenal is a pretty bad reflection on their spending
Then its United and Everton tied. If we had the best defensive record in the league and were in Arsenal's situation right now Maguire would probably have been worth the £80 million we paid.
It probably is why they spent so much on Maguire. But I have to trust the new guys and new recruitment team will be successful
I also don’t know the amount they can spend or which sales are in the pipeline
That may be. Not for me to say. My point is that if they believe he is, then I hope they get him
Fees are important though. First of all it limits us on the transfer market. If we spend 80m on player A then that have a huge impact on what we can buy next. Secondly fees and salaries tend to be somehow tied together. An 80m player will earn a fee befitting his salary. Finally the perception is different for big transfer signings. We've seen that with Maguire vs Lindelof.
Ineos had been busy hiring top people. If we go for Branthwaite then hopefully he's the right signing with us and we'll get him on a decent fee.
Fees are only that important when you're blowing it on shite, like United have been doing for a decade.
I have no problem with United spending the big money if it's on players who are going to be worth it. I don't know about Branthwaite personally because I don't watch Everton. But if the new incoming recruitment team truly believe he's going to be as influential in the PL as the aforementioned players, then why object? To sign 3 players of the Lindelof ilk? I'd take 1 big signing if it is going to be a successful one.
Seen reports of Evans retiring at the end of the season and it’s most likely that we’ll move two out of Varane, Lindelof and Maguire on too so we’d need to bring in two centre backs but that said we need another left back too as whilst Shaw is class he will always have an injury in him and Malacia may be done altogether.
I’m sure I read that Ratcliffe putting that £300 million in and also paying off a big chunk of our rolling credit facility means we’re perfectly fine PSR wise and also aren’t the rules changing at the end of the season ? If so then we’re all good money wise although that doesn’t mean we should be reckless.
Hypothetically (@Woziak am i right in saying this ?) if we were to move on Maguire and Lindelof because both their fees are fully paid off whatever we bring in would be pure profit much like it would be with Greenwood, Hannibal, Pellestri, Williams and Fernandez so realistically we could raise around £100 million in pure profit.
If Branthwaite can be got for £50-£60 million then him along with someone like Yoro or Bremer for similar that’s not even eating into what our transfer budget would be, it’s also likely we’d be moving Sancho and VDB on too which may raise a bit more although on their wages it’s more important to just move them on in general.
I know we all say it every year that we’ll see a massive shift of deadwood then it doesn’t happen but this isn’t the parasites or Woodward or Arnold this year and I do believe Ratcliffe, Brailsford, Blanc, Berrada and Ashworth despite the public talk will want to make a statement this summer in terms of incoming and outgoings.
I’m sure I read that Ratcliffe putting that £300 million in and also paying off a big chunk of our rolling credit facility means we’re perfectly fine PSR wise and also aren’t the rules changing at the end of the season ? If so then we’re all good money wise although that doesn’t mean we should be reckless.
Hypothetically (@Woziak am i right in saying this ?) if we were to move on Maguire and Lindelof because both their fees are fully paid off whatever we bring in would be pure profit much like it would be with Greenwood, Hannibal, Pellestri, Williams and Fernandez so realistically we could raise around £100 million in pure profit.
If Branthwaite can be got for £50-£60 million then him along with someone like Yoro or Bremer for similar that’s not even eating into what our transfer budget would be, it’s also likely we’d be moving Sancho and VDB on too which may raise a bit more although on their wages it’s more important to just move them on in general.
I know we all say it every year that we’ll see a massive shift of deadwood then it doesn’t happen but this isn’t the parasites or Woodward or Arnold this year and I do believe Ratcliffe, Brailsford, Blanc, Berrada and Ashworth despite the public talk will want to make a statement this summer in terms of incoming and outgoings.
I agree with your point but Mings is also rapid.
I like Braithwaite though and think he's be a very good signing for around 50Million in todays crazy market.
John Stones went for 47.5 million + add ons in 2016. Some of the comments of 40 / 50 million for him are seriously delusional, given Madrid, City, Spurs(lol) and Newcastle(so funny) have all been linked with him as well.
Maquire went for 80m, that + inflation since the Stones transfer would suggest a higher price? Everton won’t go down, if they need to sell which I doubt given trends, Onana will be first out the door.
Something like 75m with add ons is realistic. I can also see United not finishing in the “mostly not champions league” places, maybe that will sway his decision if he leaves although north west settlement may help you.
Obviously because no one has a magic ball to forsee the future. Higher fee equals a higher risk and higher cost of failure.
We should only be splashing the cash if there's no one of similar prospect for cheaper and there's enough budget headroom to cope with failure. Neither seem true.
Stones also had three years of senior football at Everton in the premier league and over double the appearances for the club, plus was an established England international when he moved. Inflation point is fair. I reckon £60m range with add ons is fair and where any transfer will land. £75m is too much of a stretch and £45-50m is definitely undervaluing him IMO
This is exactly why United should walk away from the deal & go for other options.
We’re in no position to blow £80mil of our budget on a player this Summer.
He could turn out to just be an okay CB.
At 60-70 million this summer, United would be almost paying the maximum now after just one season.
75-80 million is record breaking transfer fees for CB’s. Going close to that for a defender with 1 decent season is classic Woodward.
At 60-70 million this summer, United would be almost paying the maximum now after just one season.
75-80 million is record breaking transfer fees for CB’s. Going close to that for a defender with 1 decent season is classic Woodward.
Exactly.
With Ineos proclamation about wanting ‘the next Mbappe’ I just don’t see £75mil on this guy as feasible.
There are a few highly rated CBs in the market currently. Given they’d all be a gamble we should be getting 2 for that price.
Lindeloft transfer fee has been paid off as he signed an extension or new contract, Harry Maguire signed a 6 year + 1 year contract in July 2019 which means his contract of £9,875,000 per year expires next year. Due to the +1 option the club can basically say they have two when negotiating which means they still owe £80m transfer fee amortised over 6 years which is approximately £13m still owed to Leicester, if the club sold him for £23m this summer then on the accounts, this would show a neutral position as he currently costs £23m per year with transfer and wage fee.
Victor was bought for £31m in 2017 on a 5 year contract at £90k per week but then resigned a new 5+1 contract in 2019 for £120k per week. His original cost was approximately £4.5m wages and £6m amortised transfer fee. Even though he signed a new contract, his transfer fees should have been paid off by season 21/22 so now he costs £6m per season on the books. If we sold him for £15m he would represent profit of £15m - £6m wages so £9m net position.
That doesn't mean we'll only buy unknown teenagers for peanuts. We ideally need two centre-backs, who are ready to make a difference. There's quite a few promising players who could be available in the summer, but they'll all cost big money.
Ok onto Sir Jim investment which was a share capital purchase, in other words he invested $300m in two stages ($200m now and $100m at Christmas) this is how his share holding has now increased from 25% to 27.7%, new shares were raised to offset his capital injection.
The first £158m was already used or at least £120m of it to pay off the revolving credit card which had not been paid off and meant that United were virtually bankrupt, hence the reason we couldn’t even do loan deals in January, there was no working capital.
I’m going to try, all be it very poorly to predict what I think the club under SJR and Ineos will try and do to circumnavigate the issues with FFP/PSR and working Cashflow with some kind of timeline.
20th January 2024 - Omar Berrada
Appointed new CEO of Man United whilst due diligence and Fit and Propers Directors Test is being carried out on Sir Jim after an agreement for minority purchase was made on Christmas Eve(24/12/2023)
20th February 2024 - Ineos/SJR completed his initial purchase of 25% of the club taking direct control of all footballing matters.
Same date he also purchased an additional 2.7% of shares by investing $200m(£157m)
https://www.ineos.com/news/ineos-gr...on-of-sir-jim-ratcliffes-minority-investment/
14th March 2024
Following the recent filing of the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission)
A payment of £120m was paid off the club revolving credit facility. This was made to allow potential cash flow to be freed up for summer transfers.
https://metro.co.uk/2024/03/14/manc...r-jim-ratcliffes-cash-injection-20463678/amp/
As you can see Sir Jim is trying to use the clubs credit facility for transfers but is very aware of the huge debt and just how close to FFP/FSP/PSR the club is right now. The immediate issue is the losses over the last three years. Now UEFA and the PL treat these differently and have different cycles in Europe this was started in 2009/10 season every three years, so currently we are in the last year of a three year cycle where only €60m is permitted to be lost over the last three year cycle plus a cushion of €30m for clubs with good financial standing so a £77m loss allowed over 3 years. Now due to Covid their are some additional allowances but currently United are very close if we look at last two years we’ve lost £140m combined just look at previous years and you can see United never had this problem until last 2/3 years.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/383903/manchester-united-profit-loss/
The EPL is different you can lose slightly more £115m over 3 years with investment from an owner, so with EPL after SJR investment the club will be ok however, the small fine of €300,000 was a warning last year, the club will have to sell players this year before June 30th as well as rely on SJR investment to show and manipulate a profit of about £50-60m, yes we don’t have anywhere near the issues Chelsea have and at most would receive another UEFA fine of maybe €2-3m this summer as they are themselves now moving towards the new FSP(Financial sustainability programme) where you will only be able to spend 70% of your revenue on transfers/wages, Agent fees etc from the season of 2025/26.
Hypothetically from SJR point of view he is probably thinking his to do list looks something like this;
1. Agree in principle 25% takeover - Tick
2. Agree New CEO - Tick
3. Install Sir David Brailsford to head up all other recruitment- Tick
4. Instal new DOF and Head of Recruitment- Ongoing
5. Rally the troops and Manager but also look around - Tick
6. Main task build a new 100,000 state of the art stadium on existing ground find a architect/Populous - Tick
7. Initiate process to finance new £2bn stadium and surrounding area through Govt levelling up process, He can use INEOS or others to sponsor the stadium cost, then redevelop the land charging huge rental landlord fees to hotels, restaurants, shops etc to recoup some of the initial costs, the levelling up fund would be used for these businesses not fir old Trafford. Ineos can own the new stadium and rent it to United or arrange a 0% interest loan over 15 years to repay for the stadium all at the same time, the club is gaining huge revenues for leases on the ground, thus would theoretically allow him to start to repay the huge debt the club owes of over £1 billion as well.
8. Most important task improve the team on the field this summer, by paying £120m off the revolving credit, this give the club working capital to sign players after 1st July and based on players sales possibly offer a transfer budget of £250-300m without the threat of FFP/FSR - Ongoing sone players already are being identified expect Dan Ashworth to be in place July 1st 2024 and a fee of about £6-7m paid.
9. Hire a FFP specialist - Tick as this already in process
10. Potentially change the Manager, if he does not achieve CL Football - Ongoing
Sir Jim clearly did his homework however, he’s still capable of making mistakes, hiring potter or Southgate just to have an Englishman would be a huge mistake and fans should remember, Nice are still only sitting in 5th place and could easily end up outside Europe this year after a promising start!
You guys were like a dog in heat over Maguire but he was never going to be top class. His mobility & concentration were always going to let him down. Branthwaite is a completely different player. To play CB at that level in the Premier Leagues is exceptional and I fully expect him to only get better.. Do you buy 5 good players or one exceptional player. It's always going to be a gamble but the risk/reward is high.
Bit like you with Varane. Who has been even worse.