Alexei Navalny | Has died in prison, according to the Russian prison service

[harms]

Continued wumming the Russian judicial system after being in custody. Balls of steel I tell ya...

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

The situation became so surreal that they're giving him time to break the 4th wall right inside the "court".

If they can blatantly eliminate Nemsov they can do absolutely the same with Navalny. You don't think that anyone in Russia believes it was accidental, right ?

Nemtsov's situation was quite different. We'll never know for sure, but it's widely believed that Kadyrov was behind that — without an actual approval from Putin. It's really a mess and a horrifyingly fascinating story to look into. We know that they had caught people who did the deed (sorry for the street slang, my English comes from watching the Wire), but it didn't go any further; we also know that suddenly and for quite some time Kadyrov fell out of favour... So the theory is, roughly, that Kadyrov thought that it would please Putin and did it, while it was not the intention of Putin & co.

Navalny, Litvinenko etc. were state-sanctioned murders/attempted murders. As you can see, they haven't even opened a criminal investigation on his (alleged) poisoning — and they haven't thrown any of those FSB agents under the bus trying to say that they did it on their own accord.

 

[Raoul]

The situation became so surreal that they're giving him time to break the 4th wall right inside the "court".


Nemtsov's situation was quite different. We'll never know for sure, but it's widely believed that Kadyrov was behind that — without an actual approval from Putin. It's really a mess and a horrifyingly fascinating story to look into. We know that they had caught people who did the deed (sorry for the street slang, my English comes from watching the Wire), but it didn't go any further; we also know that suddenly and for quite some time Kadyrov fell out of favour... So the theory is, roughly, that Kadyrov thought that it would please Putin and did it, while it was not the intention of Putin & co.

Navalny, Litvinenko etc. were state-sanctioned murders/attempted murders. As you can see, they haven't even opened a criminal investigation on his (alleged) poisoning — and they haven't thrown any of those FSB agents under the bus trying to say that they did it on their own accord.

What's the status of Kadyrov now ? Is he back in Putin's good graces ?

 

[harms]

What is the sentiment in Russia regarding Navalny? I understand it is difficult to get a sense of it due to all the misinformation.

I think the American election of 2016 taught us everything that we needed to know about the information bubbles that we exist in. If I were to believe my eyes and ears, everyone is shocked/horrified/disgusted by the whole situation (which challenged even the worst perceptions of what Putin and his regime were capable of)... I think this can be roughly projected on most of the younger generation and on more liberal middle-class people from big cities like Moscow & St. Petersburg.

But with so many people still relying solely on TV for their information etc., I wouldn't try to estimate country's opinion on that.

 

[harms]

What's the status of Kadyrov now ? Is he back in Putin's good graces ?

Yeah. They need each other desperately — I'd imagine (again, based on very limited information that we have on the matter) that it was more of a disciplinary issue. Going into pure speculation mode, Kadyrov, who is granted basically unlimited authority in Chechnya (including torture and murder), went a bit overboard and thought that this authority expands on other parts of Russia as well (especially if he's doing it with Putin's good graces in mind) — and they set stricter boundaries after that. I'm sure that they didn't care that much about Nemtsov's murder* — it was the fact that it was done literally in front of Kremlin in brutal fashion and without a direct order from them.

* he was hardly relevant at that point anyway, regardless of what many post-mortem articles would like you to believe. I realise that I sound a bit like Putin/Peskov when they talk about Navalny now, but Navalny represents a real threat to them and their regime (although it's hard to properly assess how big this threat really is), Nemtsov did not. All of his political capital was left in the 90's, when at some point he was even close to succeeding Yeltsin as a president.

 

[The Firestarter]

So the theory is, roughly, that Kadyrov thought that it would please Putin and did it, while it was not the intention of Putin & co.

Kadyrov organising an acute measure without Putin's blessing in Putin's own back yard appears not very plausible to me. What was he going for, a pleasant surprise? But you never know.

Navalny, Litvinenko etc. were state-sanctioned murders/attempted murders. As you can see, they haven't even opened a criminal investigation on his (alleged) poisoning — and they haven't thrown any of those FSB agents under the bus trying to say that they did it on their own accord.

There is no point in having an investigation, it was decided , there was no poison. Talk about efficient justice.

 

[Raoul]

Yeah. They need each other desperately — I'd imagine (again, based on very limited information that we have on the matter) that it was more of a disciplinary issue. Going into pure speculation mode, Kadyrov, who is granted basically unlimited authority in Chechnya (including torture and murder), went a bit overboard and thought that this authority expands on other parts of Russia as well (especially if he's doing it with Putin's good graces in mind) — and they set stricter boundaries after that. I'm sure that they didn't care that much about Nemtsov's murder* — it was the fact that it was done literally in front of Kremlin in brutal fashion and without a direct order from them.

* he was hardly relevant at that point anyway, regardless of what many post-mortem articles would like you to believe. I realise that I sound a bit like Putin/Peskov when they talk about Navalny now, but Navalny represents a real threat to them and their regime (although it's hard to properly assess how big this threat really is), Nemtsov did not. All of his political capital was left in the 90's, when at some point he was even close to succeeding Yeltsin as a president.

There was a 2-3 year period where Kadyrov seemed totally out of control - maybe from 2015 to 2017. You may have also heard about how he sent one of his goons to beat up the teenage daughter of Fedor Emelianeko while she was walking home from school, because Fedor publicly criticized Kadyrov's use of children at one of his MMA competitions in Grozhny. Fedor is also pretty close to Putin and apparently complained to him about Kadyrov's use of "children" in MMA.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2016...tic-underscores-putins-chechen-problem-a55736

 

[harms]

Kadyrov organising an acute measure without Putin's blessing in Putin's own back yard appears not very plausible to me. What was he going for, a pleasant surprise? But you never know.

I understand your scepticism, but frankly, considering Kadyrov's personality, it seems to me like a very plausible scenario. Especially going by the reaction of the police & officials, which is usually the best way to judge what had happened there in the first place.

You have to understand that Kadyrov is a, how to put it mildly, dimwitted, hot-tempered guy who has a God-like status in what is basically his own private country (and those who don't "believe" in him are either staying silent or getting actively repressed for that). His status rose and rose and, at some point, he saw himself as the second figure in Russia only behind Putin (which was never the case) — and, considering the normality of political murders, even quite open ones, in Chechnya (if he is the one doing them), it may not even register in his mind that doing something like that would cause significant consequences.

Here's Nemtsov's killer (literally, one of those who shot him) talking about his motives — he argues that Nemtsov's vocal support of Charlie Hebdo was the main reason behind the murder (that is unlikely to be the only reason behind it, but who knows/it may have been the cause that was given to the actual killers). You can turn on auto-generated subtitles, you'll get the gist of it.

 

[The Firestarter]

I understand your scepticism, but frankly, considering Kadyrov's personality, it seems to me like a very plausible scenario. Especially going by the reaction of the police & officials, which is usually the best way to judge what had happened there in the first place.

You have to understand that Kadyrov is a, how to put it mildly, dimwitted, hot-tempered guy who has a God-like status in what is basically his own private country (and those who don't "believe" in him are either staying silent or getting actively repressed for that). His status rose and rose and, at some point, he saw himself as the second figure in Russia only behind Putin (which was never the case) — and, considering the normality of political murders, even quite open ones, in Chechnya (if he is the one doing them), it may not even register in his mind that doing something like that would cause significant consequences.

Here's Nemtsov's killer (literally, one of those who shot him) talking about his motives — he argues that Nemtsov's vocal support of Charlie Hebdo was the main reason behind the murder (that is unlikely to be the only reason behind it, but who knows/it may have been the cause that was given to the actual killers). You can turn on auto-generated subtitles, you'll get the gist of it.

Thanks for elaborating. Some truly weird stuff.

 

[harms]

43 million views in 2 days — and it's still going up like crazy. I'm very pessimistic about the future of a potential overthrow (peaceful or otherwise) of Putin's regime in the upcoming decade, but you have to give Navalny credit, he's using his limited resources as efficiently as he can. We'll see how big the active support is on Saturday, where he has asked everyone to come outside on a peaceful protest.

It's a fascinating watch for anyone who is interested (hence the views) — obviously with correct English subtitles.

 

[The Firestarter]

@harms Whats going on over there, are the protests gaining traction?

 

[VorZakone]

Navalny has huge balls.

 

[harms]

@harms Whats going on over there, are the protests gaining traction?

More than 100k protesters went on the streets today, 40-50k in Moscow alone. Dozens of cases of police brutality, more than 1000 people are detained (1614 is the number that we have at the moment).
It's not the biggest protest in Moscow's history, for example (by far!), but if the reports are correct, it's one of the most country-wise spread protest in our recent history. People went on the streets in more than 100 towns today.

 

[Sir Matt]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[Raoul]

43 million views in 2 days — and it's still going up like crazy. I'm very pessimistic about the future of a potential overthrow (peaceful or otherwise) of Putin's regime in the upcoming decade, but you have to give Navalny credit, he's using his limited resources as efficiently as he can. We'll see how big the active support is on Saturday, where he has asked everyone to come outside on a peaceful protest.

It's a fascinating watch for anyone who is interested (hence the views) — obviously with correct English subtitles.

Nearly 70m now.

Hope this doesn't result in the end of Navalny.

 

[Sir Matt]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[The Firestarter]

More than 100k protesters went on the streets today, 40-50k in Moscow alone. Dozens of cases of police brutality, more than 1000 people are detained (1614 is the number that we have at the moment).
It's not the biggest protest in Moscow's history, for example (by far!), but if the reports are correct, it's one of the most country-wise spread protest in our recent history. People went on the streets in more than 100 towns today.

Thanks, don't get arrested!

 

[Adam-Utd]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

I dunno what's funnier, the fact that they're actually throwing snowballs or that the police genuinely don't seem to care at all

 

[Sir Matt]

I dunno what's funnier, the fact that they're actually throwing snowballs or that the police genuinely don't seem to care at all

The one on the right seems to be getting irritated.

They can always go somewhere else and find some children to arrest:

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[harms]

I dunno what's funnier, the fact that they're actually throwing snowballs or that the police genuinely don't seem to care at all

They just don’t know how to react there – sadly, they’ve been more than enough violence from their side.

The one video that really surprised me was a guy dribbling on a street with a riot police helmet instead of the ball. This probably implies some actual violence, unless he bought it on Amazon beforehand (which I very much doubt).

 

[Adam-Utd]

They just don’t know how to react there – sadly, they’ve been more than enough violence from their side.

The one video that really surprised me was a guy dribbling on a street with a riot police helmet instead of the ball. This probably implies some actual violence, unless he bought it on Amazon beforehand (which I very much doubt).

Yeah I can imagine. I hope there isn’t too many injured / fatalities

 

[Raoul]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[Raoul]

43 million views in 2 days — and it's still going up like crazy. I'm very pessimistic about the future of a potential overthrow (peaceful or otherwise) of Putin's regime in the upcoming decade, but you have to give Navalny credit, he's using his limited resources as efficiently as he can. We'll see how big the active support is on Saturday, where he has asked everyone to come outside on a peaceful protest.

It's a fascinating watch for anyone who is interested (hence the views) — obviously with correct English subtitles.

Just finished the entire two hours. Absolutely devastating.

 

[utdalltheway]

That's an amazing video alright.
Sadly I can't see anything but a severe backlash from Putin.
Over 90M views now.

 

[harms]

Just finished the entire two hours. Absolutely devastating.

Putin actually commented on it, which is a first, I think. Obviously nothing interesting — it's all an old ruse, nothing belongs to me or my closest relatives etc. But the fact that he felt forced to comment on it instead of simply pretending that it doesn't exist as usual is huge.

 

[Raoul]

Putin actually commented on it, which is a first, I think. Obviously nothing interesting — it's all an old ruse, nothing belongs to me or my closest relatives etc. But the fact that he felt forced to comment on it instead of simply pretending that it doesn't exist as usual is huge.

What do you think will happen to Nalvalny now? Surely Putin can’t release him and have him make more videos like this.

 

[harms]

What do you think will happen to Nalvalny now? Surely Putin can’t release him and have him make more videos like this.

They'll probably make up another case and put him in real prison for some time. It's a zungzwang for Putin as either move is bad for him, but releasing him is surely worse (and it's not how he does things).

 

[Baxter]

Sentenced to three years in prison for violating his probation.

 

[Solius]

Sentenced to three years in prison for violating his probation.

Am I right in assuming this is complete bollocks and he shouldn’t be jailed?

 

[Raoul]

Am I right in assuming this is complete bollocks and he shouldn’t be jailed?

Pretty much. Allowing him out would probably result in more demonstrations, as will imprisoning him, but at least the latter would make him out of sight out of mind and allow them plenty of chances for him to accidentally die in prison.

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[Denis' cuff]

The EU doesn’t do “strong reaction”

 

[VorZakone]

I'm somewhat surprised this situation has escalated so far. You'd have thought Putin would have crushed Navalny years ago.

Is Putin losing influence?

 

[Sir Matt]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

Isn't that convenient?

 

[Pexbo]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

Isn't that convenient?

Its all starting to feel a little bit desperate from the Putin side.

 

[harms]

Am I right in assuming this is complete bollocks and he shouldn’t be jailed?

Yes. The case is fabricated (and he already won it when it went to the European Court of Human Rights but Putin recently lobbied a law that prioritizes Russian court decisions over the international ones).

 

[Raoul]

 

[Raoul]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[VorZakone]

The man's bravery really is something else. Oh Russia, what have you done...

 

[Paxi]

The man's bravery really is something else. Oh Russia, what have you done...

A lot of Russian have support for him or at least some sort of sympathy which wasn't as palpable in provincial Russia. I can only speak from friends and family from Bashkortostan. I think a lot of sentiment goes like: Putin did what he could and now there is time for a change, but who is there? Russians are weary.

Perhaps, @harms could correct me. In any case I think there is a quiet unrest.

 

[matherto]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

How could he possibly know if the civilian doctor wasn’t an agent?

Feels like a massive lose lose for him either way.

 

[Pexbo]

How. Luke he possibly know if the civilian doctor wasn’t an agent?

Feels like a massive lose lose for him either way.

Presumably he has a trusted doctor?