Alexei Navalny | Has died in prison, according to the Russian prison service

[harms]

How. Luke he possibly know if the civilian doctor wasn’t an agent?

Feels like a massive lose lose for him either way.

He has a few trusted doctors, including the one that provided the latest prognosis (of a possible cardiac arrest due to a high level of potassium in his blood or something along those lines) — based on a few test results that found its way to Navalny's wife. Although at this point if they would allow any civilian doctor, it would be a huge win. It weren't his doctors who saved his life in Omsk — it was a fast and correct response by the emergency services (although it was later followed by ridiculous statements on possible causes of his sudden illness).

The man's bravery really is something else. Oh Russia, what have you done...

It is. And his wife's as well — I can't even begin to imagine the decision-making process of either one of them at the point where they've discussed his return to Russia after the poisoning. And I really can't see this ending well, everything is so grim. Somehow I think that even this prolonged, public and still on-going murder won't be able to instigate the change that is required to let him out... as this regime won't let him out, you'd need a full-on revolution.

It's quite surreal, really. We're all standing behind a glass watching a guy getting murdered, slowly, methodically and without even any attempt to even cover it up.

 

[The Firestarter]

He has a few trusted doctors, including the one that provided the latest prognosis (of a possible cardiac arrest due to a high level of potassium in his blood or something along those lines) — based on a few test results that found its way to Navalny's wife. Although at this point if they would allow any civilian doctor, it would be a huge win. It weren't his doctors who saved his life in Omsk — it was a fast and correct response by the emergency services (although it was later followed by ridiculous statements on possible causes of his sudden illness).


It is. And his wife's as well — I can't even begin to imagine the decision-making process of either one of them at the point where they've discussed his return to Russia after the poisoning. And I really can't see this ending well, everything is so grim. Somehow I think that even this prolonged, public and still on-going murder won't be able to instigate the change that is required to let him out... as this regime won't let him out, you'd need a full-on revolution.

It's quite surreal, really. We're all standing behind a glass watching a guy getting murdered, slowly, methodically and without even any attempt to even cover it up.

Will never understand how a rational person will get back to a country where it's certain he will be murdered one way or another.

 

[Paxi]

Wait. We will invade Ukraine and then you will forget about Navalny.

 

[The Firestarter]

Wait. We will invade Ukraine and then you will forget about Navalny.

We?

 

[Paxi]

Will never understand how a rational person will get back to a country where it's certain he will be murdered one way or another.

I honestly forget now but even Berezuvsky said about Russia -- you miss it. I miss it. I love U.K. It's my adopted home and I consider myself British but I miss something about Russia.

 

[Paxi]

We?

I'm originally from Russia. I said it with despair.

 

[The Firestarter]

I'm originally from Russia. I said it with despair.

I knew you have roots there but didn't know you're actually born Russian.

 

[Paxi]

I knew you have roots there but didn't know you're actually born Russian.

Yes I was born there. I love Russia as a country but I don't belong there but that's for another thread. Obviously, I obtain from any political involvement at the least.

 

[VorZakone]

Yes I was born there. I love Russia as a country but I don't belong there but that's for another thread. Obviously, I obtain from any political involvement at the least.

What is it about Russia that you love?

 

[Paxi]

What is it about Russia that you love?

Mostly the history. I love my grandparents and their struggles. Sounds bizarre but I feel surreal that I was borne out of some man whom jumped out of plane in Romania. He was a private whom survived with only his commanding officer -- no one else. This man went on to be a master sergeant and then to be an apparatchik for 40 odd years. The mind blowing thing is, my grandfathers parents were 'whites' and they were hunted down and executed. Yet my grandfather still loved Russia. Still went in as a private and finished off as a 'Starshina'. Well it's something that pulls me towards Russia due to my love for my grandparents. Certainly not for communism etc. Although Russia is absolutely wild and beautiful. A Russian will be in different country in a different region and in a different time zone. Of course I don't brag about us having tigers and bears and walruses in the same country but it's notable. I'm drunk and im talking shit but I love Russia and love Northern Ireland/Ireland with all my heart.

 

[Raoul]

Wait. We will invade Ukraine and then you will forget about Navalny.

Ukraine is already invaded, so attempting another push will be seen as a way to obfuscate from other domestic affairs.

 

[Paxi]

Ukraine is already invaded, so attempting another push will be seen as a way to obfuscate from other domestic affairs.

Quite. Though from my Russian 'family' everything seems to be quiet. As opposed to west pushing the agenda that Russia are prepping to invade. I mean, I have no fecking idea. I wouldn't be surprised either way. What is lost though, is people in the Donbass area. That place is as bad as anywhere in the world.

 

[RedTiger]

@harms @Paxi how rightwing is Navalny?

 

[Raoul]

Quite. Though from my Russian 'family' everything seems to be quiet. As opposed to west pushing the agenda that Russia are prepping to invade. I mean, I have no fecking idea. I wouldn't be surprised either way. What is lost though, is people in the Donbass area. That place is as bad as anywhere in the world.

That's true, and it will probably remain that way until Putin leaves office.

 

[Paxi]

@harms @Paxi how rightwing is Navalny?

Mate I've no idea. I know that there is discontent on at a high level regarding Putin staying as long as he is. From my very small pool of friends, Navalny isn't very well liked. That is all I can relay to you. @harms can say from metropolitan point of view but I can only speak from provincial.

 

[Paxi]

That's true, and it will probably remain that way until Putin leaves office.

I think this will be a problem long after Putin is gone. I'm inclined to think that US/EU should have just left Ukraine alone. Weight up the pro's and the con's and fecking said -- listen -- you're way too ethnically Russian? Of course I'm not just blaming EU/US-RUSSIA et al. There are so many factors at play here. So many people that are just seething to pounce on any transgression. fecking gets me, is that I started to look at my own kin like mud. My great-grandmother is Ukrainian. -- she was called Лидия переулок. Anyway, I'm just meandering but I'd love for all this shit to go away.. and fecking stop treating me like a terrorist every time I show my British passport as a slav -- we can exist elsewhere you fecking cnuts.

 

[harms]

Will never understand how a rational person will get back to a country where it's certain he will be murdered one way or another.

To be fair, he had already done too much crazy shit to care. And I assume that he thought/suspected that he's done for anyway, after multiple attempts to kill him with Novichok — Putin never forgets his enemies, wherever they are. A slightly crazier/idealistic assumption would've been that he'd be able to ignite the revolution/significant changes by this move (and his own inevitable imprisonment).

You have to understand that all post-Novichok narrative was a PR master-class by Navalvy, who went on the full offensive against Putin & his goons. The palace investigation, the published call to one of his assassins — he forced the system to react (and usually in a poor way) by putting them under the spotlight. Hell, he even forced Putin to personally comment on the situation multiple times, both on the poisoning and on the palace investigation — it's literally something that is unheard of.

The most pessimistic view is that he knew that he's a dead man walking and decided to make the most out of it by exposing as much of the corrupt system (including Russian penitentiary system that suddenly came under close scrutiny by the public). It's a dark thought that I don't want to believe in, but I suspect that it may be the case.

 

[The Firestarter]

To be fair, he had already done too much crazy shit to care. And I assume that he thought/suspected that he's done for anyway, after multiple attempts to kill him with Novichok — Putin never forgets his enemies, wherever they are. A slightly crazier/idealistic assumption would've been that he'd be able to ignite the revolution/significant changes by this move (and his own inevitable imprisonment).

You have to understand that all post-Novichok narrative was a PR master-class by Navalvy, who went on the full offensive against Putin & his goons. The palace investigation, the published call to one of his assassins — he forced the system to react (and usually in a poor way) by putting them under the spotlight. Hell, he even forced Putin to personally comment on the situation multiple times, both on the poisoning and on the palace investigation — it's literally something that is unheard of.

The most pessimistic view is that he knew that he's a dead man walking and decided to make the most out of it by exposing as much of the corrupt system (including Russian penitentiary system that suddenly came under close scrutiny by the public). It's a dark thought that I don't want to believe in, but I suspect that it may be the case.

I respect him for the fearlessness , but I think he would have been able to hire security in Germany or US, even state provided protection maybe, in which case Putin would think twice before attempting something first because it would be much harder, second due to the resulting diplomatic mess . And still having an impact via social media, interviews, etc.

Now he is banking on a Mandela scenario, but I just can't see this happening. You, of course, have infinitely better vantage point so I might be wrong about the prospects.

 

[Raoul]

I think this will be a problem long after Putin is gone. I'm inclined to think that US/EU should have just left Ukraine alone. Weight up the pro's and the con's and fecking said -- listen -- you're way too ethnically Russian? Of course I'm not just blaming EU/US-RUSSIA et al. There are so many factors at play here. So many people that are just seething to pounce on any transgression. fecking gets me, is that I started to look at my own kin like mud. My great-grandmother is Ukrainian. -- she was called Лидия переулок. Anyway, I'm just meandering but I'd love for all this shit to go away.. and fecking stop treating me like a terrorist every time I show my British passport as a slav -- we can exist elsewhere you fecking cnuts.

Ultimately, the Ukrainians have a right to move in whichever direction they want. Obviously, Putin knew that allowing Ukrainian public sentiment to guide the country would result in a move towards the EU, which he couldn’t allow since it would’ve resulted in an increasingly stronger Democratic, largely Russian speaking state right on his own border, which would influence the aspirations of Russia’s own domestic pro-democracy movement and destabilize his grip on power.

 

[harms]

@harms @Paxi how rightwing is Navalny?

He held very conservative views on illegal migration at some point and was closely associated with right-wing movements, but he has openly stated that he had changed his views on that (whenever you want to believe him or not, it's on you). If I were to put him somewhere on the spectrum today, I'd probably put him as a right-leaning centrist still — he is an orthodox christian, he is very openly patriotic etc., basically take your regular pre-Trump republican and put him in a Russian context.

But above all he is a populist, for better and for worse. This is why he cut all the connections with more radical right wing movements that he was still associated with about ten years ago — he understands very well that his main target audience is very young (and is getting younger and younger) & is generally left-leaning, especially with Putin himself moving further and further to the far right side of the spectrum.

Personally I have little sympathy for Navalny as a pro- political figure, but in today's context he isn't one. It's hard not to support him in his constant fight against corruption and complete disregard by the government for laws that were set in place by them themselves. And it's hard not support him in his Don Quixote's quest to overthrow Putin's regime, even though in an ideal world I'd take the revolution & vote for a better suited person to be the new president*

* there's this false argument that was created by Putin and his propaganda that there are no decent presidential candidates around with enough qualification and experience (lol) — but in a good country with well-functioning government you don't need an all-knowing and all-mighty leader, you need a competent and honest manager who expects the same from his subordinates and values the law and the public opinion. Not to forget that Putin himself (who is not a good presidential example, but still) was a KGB/FSB agent and than an assistant to mayor before rising up to the head of FSB -> prime minister -> presidential seat in very quick succession, with little to no experience in running major corporations/organisations.

 

[harms]

I respect him for the fearlessness , but I think he would have been able to hire security in Germany or US, even state provided protection maybe, in which case Putin would think twice before attempting something first because it would be much harder, second due to the resulting diplomatic mess . And still having an impact via social media, interviews, etc.

Now he is banking on a Mandela scenario, but I just can't see this happening. You, of course, have infinitely better vantage point so I might be wrong about the prospects.

You can't really secure yourself from Novichok — or from polonium like Litvinenko, that's the main issue. There have been many examples of ex-spies, oligarchs and similar people that Putin considers personal enemies or traitors being killed (or mysteriously dying) regardless of the security measures. As for the diplomatic mess... It doesn't seem to bother him now, it didn't stop him in Crimea etc.

Navalny didn't stand a chance (although I doubt that he has one now) of overthrowing the regime from outside by interviews and social media. Firstly, the part of Russian population that are likely to watch something like that already supports him/dislikes Putin. Secondly, the biggest selling point of Putin's propaganda is that Navalny is a USA/German/NATO/Hydra agent that wants to destabilise and destroy the country — and this is the message that has been spread throughout the entirety of Russian media for more than a decade now. What do you think people that believe that would think of Navalny who "fled" the country only to try and to "ruin" it from outside while sitting in Europe?

 

[Paxi]

Ultimately, the Ukrainians have a right to move in whichever direction they want. Obviously, Putin knew that allowing Ukrainian public sentiment to guide the country would result in a move towards the EU, which he couldn’t allow since it would’ve resulted in an increasingly stronger Democratic, largely Russian speaking state right on his own border, which would influence the aspirations of Russia’s own domestic pro-democracy movement and destabilize his grip on power.

They do but they can't. One can't move when one side doesn't want you and the other side doesn't kind of want you. Or both sides do, until they don't.
Also I'm not sure its just about Putin. I strongly believe that Ukraine is, on a top level, is as corrupt, as Belarus, or indeed as Russia. At least with Russia and Belarus there is continuity as crass as it is. Ukraine is a failed state at this point. Torn apart.

 

[Paxi]

@harms do you think FSB and other clandestine are as careless in regards to Novichok and poisoning. I'm struggling to see where Putin, a Colonel in KGB, doesn't solidify himself by FSB. By own words, CIA, have built a picture of KBG being absolutely elite in clandestine operations. To what end would FSB send two officers to botch a pardoned nobody?

This is for anyone, and not just harms. It's not a loaded question. I just want explanation as to why Russia would humiliate themselves like this?

 

[RedTiger]

He held very conservative views on illegal migration at some point and was closely associated with right-wing movements, but he has openly stated that he had changed his views on that (whenever you want to believe him or not, it's on you). If I were to put him somewhere on the spectrum today, I'd probably put him as a right-leaning centrist still — he is an orthodox christian, he is very openly patriotic etc., basically take your regular pre-Trump republican and put him in a Russian context.

But above all he is a populist, for better and for worse. This is why he cut all the connections with more radical right wing movements that he was still associated with about ten years ago — he understands very well that his main target audience is very young (and is getting younger and younger) & is generally left-leaning, especially with Putin himself moving further and further to the far right side of the spectrum.

Personally I have little sympathy for Navalny as a pro- political figure, but in today's context he isn't one. It's hard not to support him in his constant fight against corruption and complete disregard by the government for laws that were set in place by them themselves. And it's hard not support him in his Don Quixote's quest to overthrow Putin's regime, even though in an ideal world I'd take the revolution & vote for a better suited person to be the new president*

* there's this false argument that was created by Putin and his propaganda that there are no decent presidential candidates around with enough qualification and experience (lol) — but in a good country with well-functioning government you don't need an all-knowing and all-mighty leader, you need a competent and honest manager who expects the same from his subordinates and values the law and the public opinion. Not to forget that Putin himself (who is not a good presidential example, but still) was a KGB/FSB agent and than an assistant to mayor before rising up to the head of FSB -> prime minister -> presidential seat in very quick succession, with little to no experience in running major corporations/organisations.

Thank-you for the brilliant explanation!

 

[harms]

@harms do you think FSB and other clandestine are as careless in regards to Novichok and poisoning. I'm struggling to see where Putin, a Colonel in KGB, doesn't solidify himself by FSB. By own words, CIA, have built a picture of KBG being absolutely elite in clandestine operations. To what end would FSB send two officers to botch a pardoned nobody?

This is for anyone, and not just harms. It's not a loaded question. I just want explanation as to why Russia would humiliate themselves like this?

Yeah, I think so. The biggest tell is Putin's and Russia's reaction on all of those killings/assassination attempts. I actually had doubts about their involvement until the Salisbury incident came about (and the ridiculously entertaining interview of Bashirov and Petrov by RT's editor in chief Margarita Simonyan).

As for their competence:
1. When you have absolute power inside your country (I'm talking about FSB now, not about Putin specifically) — you can break laws, you can disregard police, judges and human rights, it doesn't really give you a good experience for a more competitive environment. Same goes for corruption and nepotism.
2. Literally every government body is horrendously incompetent — including people who are in direct communication with Putin. While he certainly has personal affiliation with FSB, he doesn't have an option of magically fixing all of their issues.
3. Specifically for Novichok — there's a slight issue with it. You don't really get to test it normally.

There are many and many other arguments for that — and only one against: Are they really that stupid?

Spoiler

Yes

 

[Paxi]

Yeah, I think so. The biggest tell is Putin's and Russia's reaction on all of those killings/assassination attempts. I actually had doubts about their involvement until the Salisbury incident came about (and the ridiculously entertaining interview of Bashirov and Petrov by RT's editor in chief Margarita Simonyan).

As for their competence:
1. When you have absolute power inside your country (I'm talking about FSB now, not about Putin specifically) — you can break laws, you can disregard police, judges and human rights, it doesn't really give you a good experience for a more competitive environment. Same goes for corruption and nepotism.
2. Literally every government body is horrendously incompetent — including people who are in direct communication with Putin. While he certainly has personal affiliation with FSB, he doesn't have an option of magically fixing all of their issues.
3. Specifically for Novichok — there's a slight issue with it. You don't really get to test it normally.

There are many and many other arguments for that — and only one against: Are they really that stupid?

Spoiler

Yes

I understand that there may be some standards that are slipping but I don't believe for a second that FSB would send two officers. It seems bizarre. But why Skripal? He is absolutely no one. Sold some information for 6-7 figures.
You think that nepotism, corruption that has lead to absolute debacle? Would that not alarm Putin?
Of course, I understand that he cannot micromanage the FSB but by the same token, surely he would take a keen interest?
The argument whether people are that stupid, you and I both know that there are some of the sharpest minds that are working around the clock.
Again, Im not glorifying Russia (but I do believe that they are world leading in espionage) Just seems like a sure way to attract attending to yourself. Is it sabre-rattling; well that would be absolutely fecking insane. Why show someone how utterly ridiculous you are?

 

[Raoul]

I understand that there may be some standards that are slipping but I don't believe for a second that FSB would send two officers. It seems bizarre. But why Skripal? He is absolutely no one. Sold some information for 6-7 figures.
You think that nepotism, corruption that has lead to absolute debacle? Would that not alarm Putin?
Of course, I understand that he cannot micromanage the FSB but by the same token, surely he would take a keen interest?
The argument whether people are that stupid, you and I both know that there are some of the sharpest minds that are working around the clock.
Again, Im not glorifying Russia (but I do believe that they are world leading in espionage) Just seems like a sure way to attract attending to yourself. Is it sabre-rattling; well that would be absolutely fecking insane. Why show someone how utterly ridiculous you are?

Because Putin holds grudges, especially for what he considers spies who turn against the state. See Litvinenko.

 

[Paxi]

Because Putin holds grudges, especially for what he considers spies who turn against the state. See Litvinenko.

Maybe. Again, I don't want to turn into that guy whom lived in US -- Chelsea fan but ask yourself Raoul, this man that he has sent to off Litvinenko, he sent him with his own family. That guy, I forget his name now, he had he's own private militia. He could have obviously had Putin done in. Then again, maybe Vlad was like a chess grandmaster, whom saw a potential challenger? Either way, complete speculation.

Skripal is very weird. Absolutely of no consequence and doesn't seem like an attempt at sabre-rattling. Even Novichok that was disposed in a little stream or whatever. We both both been in the military, mate you think any officer would dump a biological weapon in a fecking litter ravine? This goes back to the question: are Russins this stupid these days?

 

[VorZakone]

Mate I've no idea. I know that there is discontent on at a high level regarding Putin staying as long as he is. From my very small pool of friends, Navalny isn't very well liked. That is all I can relay to you. @harms can say from metropolitan point of view but I can only speak from provincial.

Why do you friends not like Navalny?

 

[harms]

You think that nepotism, corruption that has lead to absolute debacle? Would that not alarm Putin?

Putin's system is nepotism and corruption. He surrounded himself with childhood friends and sparring partners from his judo club.

As for

The argument whether people are that stupid, you and I both know that there are some of the sharpest minds that are working around the clock.

I know enough high-level government officials personally (work-related, obviously, not socially) to say with certainty that most of them are kept there before they are loyal... that's the only requirement. Most of them aren't very bright, which is evident from the way that they came through. There are a few brilliant minds there — Surkov was, for example, but mostly they all exist in a non-competitive environment that doesn't ask you to provide any meaningful results (hence our economical and political collapse).

Again, Im not glorifying Russia (but I do believe that they are world leading in espionage) Just seems like a sure way to attract attending to yourself. Is it sabre-rattling; well that would be absolutely fecking insane. Why show someone how utterly ridiculous you are?

It is. Unless the idea is not to kill someone in secret, but to prove a point — a mafioso logic, but they aren't any different. Hence the polonium (I mean, fecking radioactive material, are you kidding me?), hence the Novichok that is well-known to specialists and is only synthesised in Russia.

P.S. How about Russian spies that got caught in Netherlands and were sent back to Russia... with taxi receipts from a GRU head-quarters to a fecking airport? He kept them to get his money back from the accountants. When you look at the amount of evidence, direct and circumstantial, on all of the cases, and how Russian government reacted to that (like GRU & FSB agents having their fake passport registration addresses in GRU/FSB head-quarters... in Russian official system, so it's not like it's something that can be easily faked by CIA or FSB). There's so much evidence of their complete unawareness and incompetence that there's really no other explanations to all those "bloopers".

P.P.S. As for the spy thing, I'll give you Prigozhin, but he's not directly connected to FSB. His internet trolls (despite their apparent predictability) and the use of hackers was a visionary move, he bet a lot on them and got fantastic results. But this is not FSB, this is a guy from Putin's entourage that had an inventive idea and went with it — he existed outside of the glorified spy-making institution.

 

[Paxi]

Why do you friends not like Navalny?

Not my friends, My family. Its not that they don't like him. Propaganda machine. Do you dislike Liverpool? Maybe bot as drastic.

 

[Paxi]

Putin's system is nepotism and corruption. He surrounded himself with childhood friends and sparring partners from his judo club.

As for


I know enough high-level government officials personally (work-related, obviously, not socially) to say with certainty that most of them are kept there before they are loyal... that's the only requirement. Most of them aren't very bright, which is evident from the way that they came through. There are a few brilliant minds there — Surkov was, for example, but mostly they all exist in a non-competitive environment that doesn't ask you to provide any meaningful results (hence our economical and political collapse).


It is. Unless the idea is not to kill someone in secret, but to prove a point — a mafioso logic, but they aren't any different. Hence the polonium (I mean, fecking radioactive material, are you kidding me?), hence the Novichok that is well-known to specialists and is only synthesised in Russia.

P.S. How about Russian spies that got caught in Netherlands and were sent back to Russia... with taxi receipts from a GRU head-quarters to a fecking airport? He kept them to get his money back from the accountants. When you look at the amount of evidence, direct and circumstantial, on all of the cases, and how Russian government reacted to that (like GRU & FSB agents having their fake passport registration addresses in GRU/FSB head-quarters... in Russian official system, so it's not like it's something that can be easily faked by CIA or FSB). There's so much evidence of their complete unawareness and incompetence that there's really no other explanations to all those "bloopers".

P.P.S. As for the spy thing, I'll give you Prigozhin, but he's not directly connected to FSB. His internet trolls (despite their apparent predictability) and the use of hackers was a visionary move, he bet a lot on them and got fantastic results. But this is not FSB, this is a guy from Putin's entourage that had an inventive idea and went with it — he existed outside of the glorified spy-making institution.

I never knew about nepotism around his judoka etc etc.

I also know, albeit, provincial officials and I can only describe them as quite smart and switched on. I made the assumption that the chain if command followed that. I mean why wouldn't?

 

[harms]

I also know, albeit, provincial officials and I can only describe them as quite smart and switched on. I made the assumption that the chain if command followed that. I mean why wouldn't?

From personal experience I know/knew 3 ministers, 2 department heads in Moscow and a bunch of their deputies. Hardly an inspiring bunch. The smart ones don't really go there — when you look at Abramovich, Mikhelson, Potatin etc., this is where the smart ones went. As for the provincial officials, I don't really have any personal experience, so it's hard for me to comment on that. My guess would be that smart youngsters from provinces may use this as a career opportunity?

 

[Paxi]

From personal experience I know/knew 3 ministers, 2 department heads in Moscow and a bunch of their deputies. Hardly an inspiring bunch. The smart ones don't really go there — when you look at Abramovich, Mikhelson, Potatin etc., this is where the smart ones went. As for the provincial officials, I don't really have any personal experience, so it's hard for me to comment on that. My guess would be that smart youngsters from provinces may use this as a career opportunity?

When I say province its Ufa. Its a big area. I also wouldn't know the details mate.

 

[MTF]

@harms do you think FSB and other clandestine are as careless in regards to Novichok and poisoning. I'm struggling to see where Putin, a Colonel in KGB, doesn't solidify himself by FSB. By own words, CIA, have built a picture of KBG being absolutely elite in clandestine operations. To what end would FSB send two officers to botch a pardoned nobody?

This is for anyone, and not just harms. It's not a loaded question. I just want explanation as to why Russia would humiliate themselves like this?

From my casual reading of Cold War espionage operations, I don't think either the KGB or the CIA come off as "absolutely elite". There are some really successful operations/infiltrations, like Kim Philby and the Cambridge Five that certainly spooked the CIA/MI6, and the CIA in turn had some ingenious moments like Project Azorian or Operation Ivy Bells.

But there's plenty of situations where personnel were complete tossers too. Reino Häyhänen who was supposed to be Rudolf Abel's assistant in NY, spending all of the money given to him on drinking and prostitutes, and generally being of no use for several years comes to mind. The US also lost several assets due to Edward Lee Howard, who had all the appearances of a potential problem when they fired him for past drug use and yet didn't manage to keep him from talking and later defecting to the USSR.

I take it as a mixed bag. Sometimes these agencies do some really mind-blowing things and their personnel display remarkable discipline (losing and then making sure you've lost your tails in an urban environment to go check on a drop or do a quick meet can take several hours), but other times they recruit some people that just don't have anywhere near the required skills and mindset.

 

[Paxi]

From my casual reading of Cold War espionage operations, I don't think either the KGB or the CIA come off as "absolutely elite". There are some really successful operations/infiltrations, like Kim Philby and the Cambridge Five that certainly spooked the CIA/MI6, and the CIA in turn had some ingenious moments like Project Azorian or Operation Ivy Bells.

But there's plenty of situations where personnel were complete tossers too. Reino Häyhänen who was supposed to be Rudolf Abel's assistant in NY, spending all of the money given to him on drinking and prostitutes, and generally being of no use for several years comes to mind. The US also lost several assets due to Edward Lee Howard, who had all the appearances of a potential problem when they fired him for past drug use and yet didn't manage to keep him from talking and later defecting to the USSR.

I take it as a mixed bag. Sometimes these agencies do some really mind-blowing things and their personnel display remarkable discipline (losing and then making sure you've lost your tails in an urban environment to go check on a drop or do a quick meet can take several hours), but other times they recruit some people that just don't have anywhere near the required skills and mindset.

I mean I would say that a vapour gun and umbrella pin assassinations etc have been disclosed by defectors. I would say that is elite espionage. Paramount stealth. It just seems that Novichok in a fecking cologne bottle seems like a total degradation. Also keep in mind apparently highest level officers were sent in. Look I'm just going to come right out and say it. I don't think Russians did it. It is certainly not beyond them to off some cnut if they wanted to but to make an absolute mockery of it. One, clear, undeniable fact is, what were those FSB/GRU agents doing in Sailsbury? fecking sigh seeing simply doesn't cut it. But like what the feck... how do you send officers and do a remarkably shit job?

 

[VorZakone]

KGB were great at the humanistic part (actual spy recruitment and handling) while the CIA excelled at technological espionage.

 

[MTF]

I mean I would say that a vapour gun and umbrella pin assassinations etc have been disclosed by defectors. I would say that is elite espionage. Paramount stealth. It just seems that Novichok in a fecking cologne bottle seems like a total degradation. Also keep in mind apparently highest level officers were sent in. Look I'm just going to come right out and say it. I don't think Russians did it. It is certainly not beyond them to off some cnut if they wanted to but to make an absolute mockery of it. One, clear, undeniable fact is, what were those FSB/GRU agents doing in Sailsbury? fecking sigh seeing simply doesn't cut it. But like what the feck... how do you send officers and do a remarkably shit job?

I don't pretend to know how the FSB/GRU plan to carry out assassinations in terms of what their preferred methods and outcomes are. As I said, I just don't think it's right to presume absolute mastery of planning and execution of these operations by any spy agency. As another recent example, Israel "burned" 18 of their undercovers just to assassinate one guy in Dubai a few years ago. If you think they're all about stealth and being undetected you might think that they'd use just a few people and take more care not to be all discovered.

 

[Paxi]

I don't pretend to know how the FSB/GRU plan to carry out assassinations in terms of what their preferred methods and outcomes are. As I said, I just don't think it's right to presume absolute mastery of planning and execution of these operations by any spy agency. As another recent example, Israel "burned" 18 of their undercovers just to assassinate one guy in Dubai a few years ago. If you think they're all about stealth and being undetected you might think that they'd use just a few people and take more care not to be all discovered.

Well that's certainly an interesting theory. Certainly subversive. Should laugh but alas, Ive no idea either how agencies do wet work. Oooh I sound cool, I said wet work in a sentence...sorry mate I was just having a moment.


Not entirely, in fact entirely sure I misused the term; wet work. I'm wet now.

 

[Simbo]

I mean I would say that a vapour gun and umbrella pin assassinations etc have been disclosed by defectors. I would say that is elite espionage. Paramount stealth. It just seems that Novichok in a fecking cologne bottle seems like a total degradation. Also keep in mind apparently highest level officers were sent in. Look I'm just going to come right out and say it. I don't think Russians did it. It is certainly not beyond them to off some cnut if they wanted to but to make an absolute mockery of it. One, clear, undeniable fact is, what were those FSB/GRU agents doing in Sailsbury? fecking sigh seeing simply doesn't cut it. But like what the feck... how do you send officers and do a remarkably shit job?

Was it such a shit job? They got in, delivered the poison and got out. Maybe they overestimated the lethality of Novichok, maybe not. We know Putin doesn't really care about completely covert operations, he just needs it known how dangerous it is to feck with him and his. There are countless examples long before Skripal. Remember the FSB guys getting caught planting the 5th apartment bomb? They can get away with anything.

Don't know if its already been mentioned on the thread/forum but as its relevant:

A 'suicide' of another Putin critic, within days of the Salisbury poisonings, has only just this month been ruled as homicide.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-56695489

And today there's uproar in Czech Republic about new evidence showing a 2014 bombing of military warehouses being caused by the GRU/FSB/KGB. Suspects being the same two accused of the Salisbury poisons.
https://www.politico.eu/article/cze...s-alleging-kremlin-role-in-deadly-2014-blast/