fecking Lisa Nandy for leader. You have to be joking. That cnut together with others from Midlands are responsible for there never being a 2nd referendum. They abstained on Beckett amendment on confirmatory public vote which was defeated by just 3 votes. I’m disgusted she didn’t lose her seat and others did.
Next Labour leader - Starmer and Rayner win
- Thread starter Kaos
- Start date
The centre blame the left, the left blame everyone else and all the while people are repeating themselves over and over. But what is tedious is people reading crap posted on the likes of twitter then going on and on about it in here when the conversation has moved on dragging us all backwards again.
Personally I prefer Jess Phillips
Current betting is:
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-labour-leader
Wrong daily.......11/4
Nandy..................4/1
Starmer.............13/2
Rayner.................8/1
Phillips................8/1
Cooper................22/1
Thornberry..........25/1
Clive Lewis.........33/1
Dan Jarvis..........33/1
Not all will make it onto the ballot
I wouldn't be surprised to see wrong daily , nandy, Raynor, Phillips as the options put forwards... I'm just not sure starmer looks sure he wants to do it
Phillips would be a terrible choice.
Why? She’s Labours Jo Swinson equivalent.
It's great everyone has such different views on the leader though. If only more of the country could get involved and look deeper into it, maybe we wouldn't be so fecked.
Or maybe I'm giving them too much credit
Or maybe I'm giving them too much credit
I think she would actually do something about the anti semitism
I think she would do pretty well at pmqs and get a lot of more positive media (and some negative though less than Corbyn did)
And I met her this campaign when she came to help in the area... Didn't rate my local candidate but Jess spoke well and most of all came over as somebody I could see as a leader... I'd hire her for my business because you just get the feeling she would get shit done... I don't get the same vibe from say a starmer (though I've never met him in person )
That said I'm sure you disagree
I'd probably rank the 4 I mentioned as
Phillips, nandy, rayner, wrong daily
I suspect yours would be in reverse. (Just a guess)
Ultimately it will probably end up with a centrist and a momentum candidate in the final count off rather than somebody in the middle ... Might be wrong but that's my gut feel for how it will play out
Last edited:
Thanks for the kind words mate, and from @Redlambs. I hope the rest of the Labour movement can face the future with the same attitude as some of the posters in here and I'm hoping to see thousands of new members who are willing to come in and have difficult but positive and honest conversations both inside and outside the party.
Sorry for the long post, but this is how I would change the Labour Party to be successful and reconnect with its voters.
Embrace Britain’s culture, national identity and pride
The average working-class person has a strong emotional attachment to their country and its history. Any signal from the party or its leadership that they either don’t share that pride, or worse, look down upon people who do, is disastrous if you want to rebuild connection with the traditional Labour base.
Focus on improving people’s lives, not ideological purity
Drop the idea of major nationalisations. Drop the seizure of private property and shares. Drop the statism in general. There are many ways to successfully improve the lives of ordinary people and their economic situation without resorting to centralised control over huge chunks of the economy.
Simplify the message
Pick a unifying and popular cause, and stick to it! Whether that’s housing, or healthcare, or jobs, pick one, get a slogan, and hammer it on every poster and in every interview.
Abandon identity politics
Most people do not give a shit about whatever the woke cultural cause of the moment is. Let the cultural progressives get on with this kind of activism without getting involved. Focus on the core message. In a related point, stop talking about Israel/Palestine completely. 99% of Britain does not care about a regional dispute in the middle east. Britain has no real influence there anyway, and with the antisemitism scandal, it’s only ever going to play badly for Labour.
Embrace our successful industries
Stop focusing on the things Britain has lost, and start talking about all the successful industries we now have. Looking back and pining for the days of mining and heavy industry is a fools game - they’re gone and they’re not coming back. We have world class industries such as the creative and media sectors, professional services, finance, tourism, universities, pharma and health etc. Talk about those successes and how we grow them further and ensure more of the population can benefit from them.
Reassure people on immigration, multiculturalism and crime
The Brexit argument has changed our politics and the battle has been lost. Don’t allow the party to be outflanked by the tories on immigration or crime. Go for a tight immigration policy and a ‘tough on crime, tough on the causes of crime’ message that Blair used to successfully neutralise the issue.
Find better talent for the parliamentary party and cabinet
I never want to see Diane Abbott, Richard Burgon or Rebecca Long-Bailey on my TV again. They’re beyond awful. Try to refresh the parliamentary party with talented candidates over time and move out the deadwood when the opportunity presents itself. In the short-term, build the shadow cabinet around Starmer, Cooper, Jarvis, Benn, Phillips, Kinnock, and Creasy.
Try to bring the media onside
Ideally pick a leader who the media would find harder to attack convincingly. The main danger for a Labour leader is always that they will be portrayed as unpatriotic - it’s hard to make a charge like that stick against someone like Jarvis with his active military service.
Stop insulting Tories
Half the Labour base just voted Tory. Implying that they’re cnuts, or were duped into voting for cnuts, is not going to help win them back, to say the least.
Make peace emotionally and intellectually with New Labour and Tony Blair
Tony Blair is divisive. But so was Thatcher, and the Tories never went down the road of denigrating her or her legacy. A party must honour their former leaders, party grandees and successful years of government otherwise factionalism will destroy everything. There were many accomplishments of the Blair years to be proud of, and its insanity for the party not to point to them as evidence of Labour’s ability to improve people’s lives.
Also, get over Iraq. Yes, in hindsight it was a major mistake. But Labour was in power for 13 years and its inevitable that any governing party will make big errors during such a period. Let’s not flog ourselves over it. The US was going to invade Iraq regardless, so it’s not like it made much real difference, and it was supported at the time by the tories anyway. Also, for goodness sake put the war in some context - people make out like we invaded Sweden or something.
Embrace Britain’s culture, national identity and pride
The average working-class person has a strong emotional attachment to their country and its history. Any signal from the party or its leadership that they either don’t share that pride, or worse, look down upon people who do, is disastrous if you want to rebuild connection with the traditional Labour base.
Focus on improving people’s lives, not ideological purity
Drop the idea of major nationalisations. Drop the seizure of private property and shares. Drop the statism in general. There are many ways to successfully improve the lives of ordinary people and their economic situation without resorting to centralised control over huge chunks of the economy.
Simplify the message
Pick a unifying and popular cause, and stick to it! Whether that’s housing, or healthcare, or jobs, pick one, get a slogan, and hammer it on every poster and in every interview.
Abandon identity politics
Most people do not give a shit about whatever the woke cultural cause of the moment is. Let the cultural progressives get on with this kind of activism without getting involved. Focus on the core message. In a related point, stop talking about Israel/Palestine completely. 99% of Britain does not care about a regional dispute in the middle east. Britain has no real influence there anyway, and with the antisemitism scandal, it’s only ever going to play badly for Labour.
Embrace our successful industries
Stop focusing on the things Britain has lost, and start talking about all the successful industries we now have. Looking back and pining for the days of mining and heavy industry is a fools game - they’re gone and they’re not coming back. We have world class industries such as the creative and media sectors, professional services, finance, tourism, universities, pharma and health etc. Talk about those successes and how we grow them further and ensure more of the population can benefit from them.
Reassure people on immigration, multiculturalism and crime
The Brexit argument has changed our politics and the battle has been lost. Don’t allow the party to be outflanked by the tories on immigration or crime. Go for a tight immigration policy and a ‘tough on crime, tough on the causes of crime’ message that Blair used to successfully neutralise the issue.
Find better talent for the parliamentary party and cabinet
I never want to see Diane Abbott, Richard Burgon or Rebecca Long-Bailey on my TV again. They’re beyond awful. Try to refresh the parliamentary party with talented candidates over time and move out the deadwood when the opportunity presents itself. In the short-term, build the shadow cabinet around Starmer, Cooper, Jarvis, Benn, Phillips, Kinnock, and Creasy.
Try to bring the media onside
Ideally pick a leader who the media would find harder to attack convincingly. The main danger for a Labour leader is always that they will be portrayed as unpatriotic - it’s hard to make a charge like that stick against someone like Jarvis with his active military service.
Stop insulting Tories
Half the Labour base just voted Tory. Implying that they’re cnuts, or were duped into voting for cnuts, is not going to help win them back, to say the least.
Make peace emotionally and intellectually with New Labour and Tony Blair
Tony Blair is divisive. But so was Thatcher, and the Tories never went down the road of denigrating her or her legacy. A party must honour their former leaders, party grandees and successful years of government otherwise factionalism will destroy everything. There were many accomplishments of the Blair years to be proud of, and its insanity for the party not to point to them as evidence of Labour’s ability to improve people’s lives.
Also, get over Iraq. Yes, in hindsight it was a major mistake. But Labour was in power for 13 years and its inevitable that any governing party will make big errors during such a period. Let’s not flog ourselves over it. The US was going to invade Iraq regardless, so it’s not like it made much real difference, and it was supported at the time by the tories anyway. Also, for goodness sake put the war in some context - people make out like we invaded Sweden or something.
To address a few points...
A lot of Corbyn's economic policies were broadly more popular than he was himself. Granted, that doesn't mean they were necessarily popular when compiled into a larger manifesto, and I don't we should necessarily be nationalising industries for the sake of it, but I do think the Labour Party should be looking to put forward some genuine left-wing ideas that will excite voters. They need a manifesto that promises to genuinely transform an economy which hasn't worked for many over the past decade, and they need to have a clear message while doing so. Part of the reason Corbyn was elected in the first place was because his opponents had no real answers to many of the economic problems people across the country had faced, and no real plan to implement significant change.
On the industries point, yeah, I tend to cringe a little bit when Labour voters talk about mining to such a significant extent...it was a fairly shit job that had shit working conditions for workers, and we should be glad workers don't need to endure it any longer. Similarly, was baffled to see people talking about Labour losing 'mining towns'...mining hasn't been a thing in most areas for a long time now, and there's no point in dwelling in the past. These mining towns are now service industry towns etc. Times have changed.
Labour are inevitably going to be outflanked on immigration while Boris Johnson is in charge. They should listen to the concerns of voters, but they should also be willing to inform voters of the virtues of immigration, and under no circumstances should they give in to nationalist impulses and throw Britain's working-class immigrants under the bus for the sake of a few votes.
Blair's a tricky one. The party should be willing to embrace his successes, yes, but it should be acknowledged that his temporarily successful economic approach also contributed to the later crash of the economy, and that the strategy of promising increased public investment while not really increasing taxes on the rich at all only works so long as the economy is succeeding. Same with banking deregulation.
Iraq's probably increasingly irrelevant as a talking point, but at the same time it seems sort of convenient for Blair fans to be able to dismiss it when it's still fairly disastrous for swathes of Britons who were impacted by it, and who had family who lost their lives etc.
This woman is the definition of a snob. I know who I believe out of her and Caroline Flint.Tweet
— Twitter API (@user) date
I agree with all of this.
It baffles me how often parties get their leaders wrong. Although there have been some politicians lately that have destroyed the rulebook in terms of who's electable.
3 out of the top 4 are women from Greater Manchester. Interesting.
She was present but not involved.
Well said. If the price Labour have to pay to get in power is appropriating the rhetoric of the far right then it's not a price I want to pay. The trouble is they are pro-immigration but they worry about how that stance will go down with the electorate so they are timid about it which is the worst of both worlds - they still come across as unsympathetic to concerns about immigration but without forcefully arguing why. They need to be more authoritative in putting forward the case for things like Freedom of Movement, and realise that not everyone who worries about immigration does so from an entrenched position of racism or xenophobia.
Free movement is dead and gone, has been since 2017 at least when there was no push to remain in the single market by anyone but the minor parties. Best case now is to argue the merits of immigration and try not to get bogged down in "how much of it do you want?" questions.
I'm afraid Freedom of Movement is gone for good and that will be non-negotiable with the voters. Labour will have to accept that.
Labour accepting something?
Not on my watch.
Not on my watch.
Libs will be a rejoin party in the next election
Labour will probably be (or at least hopefully from my point of view) proposing joining in a Norway type deal if not by next election by the one after
To me, both those things seem very unlikely (unless Brexit is a clear and immediate disaster with the country on its knees).
I had to write something on the election for work on Friday morning. I thought it may be illuminating as (in my view) it underscores the challenges which face Labour:
1. The Exit Poll was very accurate
At 10pm the broadcasters Exit Poll was released, and Sir John Curtice's psephology with Ipsos MORI proved remarkably accurate, as this rejected pitch for a new Avengers movie shows:
The composition of the House of Commons will be:
Conservatives - 365
Labour - 203
SNP - 48
Liberal Democrats - 11
DUP - 8
Sinn Féin - 7
Plaid Cymru - 4
SDLP - 2
Green Party - 1
Alliance - 1
This translates into a majority of 80.
The last time the Conservative Party had a majority this large was in 1987, when one Margaret Thatcher won her third straight General Election. Expect little to no opposition to the Government's legislative programme.
2. The Conservative Party are the natural party of Government
To be honest, many of us have grown up in a very misleading time.
The Labour Party were in office from 1997 to 2010, a full thirteen years. Many of us would have voted in a General Election where Labour were in power. But this length of Labour Government was an aberration.
The thirteen years of Labour rule was the longest period of non-Conservative rule in this country since 1763. The Conservatives are very much the natural party of Government.
If Boris Johnson fulfils a full five-year term (which is as close to certain as you can get), it will be fifty years since a Labour leader other than Tony Blair won a General Election.
The Conservative Party's ruthlessness when it comes to winning elections means that it has in the past, and did yesterday, find a winning formula when many people doubted in could. In 2015, David Cameron compiled a majority out of metropolitan seats in major cities, plus the shires. Yesterday, Boris Johnson won a huge majority whilst losing London, Birmingham, Manchester, Liverpool and Newcastle, amongst others. The new Conservative Government has MPs from the shires, to be sure, but also MPs from old mining areas, towns, semi-urban areas and rural Scotland.
If the electoral maths change by the time of the 2024 General Election, do not discount the Conservative Party's ability to find a winning combination where one seemed difficult to find.
3. The Red Wall breached? More like destroyed...
What is the 'Red Wall'?
It essentially was a shorthand way of describing a swath of seats which the Labour Party held for many decades, many since before the Second World War.
The Red Wall included constituencies in the Midlands and the North which - although Labour - did vote Leave in the 2016 Referendum.
The Wall was meant to stand up to a Tory victory. It did in 1983, when Labour only won 209 seats.
Unfortunately for the Labour Party, it did not yesterday. This is, for me, the most significant part of the Election. The Conservative Party did not just win in these seats - they won convincingly. Labour will not win an election again without winning back these seats.
To illustrate, here were Labour majorities in red wall seats in 1997:
All listed have gone blue (and I have missed a number out too for the sake of brevity).
Will this new constituency representation change the nature of the Conservative Party? Previously they haven't had to think about these communities - now they represent them.
4. 2019 is worse for Labour than 1997 was for the Conservative Party
In 1997, the Conservative Party received its worst election result since 1832.
They ended up with 9.6m votes, 30.7% of the vote, and only 165 seats. In the 2019 Election, Labour's figures were better on all counts. However, I think that this result is much worse for Labour.
Here is the electoral map from 1997:
Importantly for the Conservative Party, the seats it hanged on to were generally very safe, and provided a base for the long rebuilding in the elections to follow. Likewise, their voting base in 1997 was stable and could be relied upon for future votes.
Now, here is 2019:
Unlike 1997, Labour does not have the same solid base as the Conservative Party did. In addition, many of the seats it did hang on to (for example, Dagenham and Rainham), were secured with razor thin majorities and would be vulnerable to minor swings at a constituency level. This means that if the Labour Party could be vulnerable to losses both if they decide to remain as left-wing as they are now, and if they choose a centrist path.
The electoral map has been redrawn, perhaps permanently. This image from The Times illustrates the swings both toward Labour in 2017, and the simply massive swing away from Labour yesterday:
These swings have meant that the Conservative Party now either holds traditional Labour seats, or is running them very close in their heartlands. In short, the Conservative Party in 1997 could effectively follow the old rules and approaches to politics in rebuilding. The Labour Party does not have this luxury, even if the Conservative vote fell in Remain areas.
5. Oh... Jeremy Corbyn....
In terms of seats, this is Labour's worst electoral performance since the 1935 General Election. There, led by one Clement Attlee, Labour won just 145 seats.
However, in 1931 Labour won just 52 seats (in part due to that pesky Zinoviev letter), and Attlee was only appointed a month before the Election to replace one George Lansbury, a white haired bearded pacifist who opposed rearmament in the face of German fascism. After making a speech at Labour Conference extolling the virtues of pacifism and opposing sanctions against aggressive countries, Ernest Bevin (the future Home Secretary), accused Lansbury of putting his private beliefs ahead of a policy agreed by the Party, and accused him of "hawking [his] conscience round from body to body asking to be told what to do with it".
Already the recriminations have started. Ian Lavery (if he offers to sort out a pension for you, read this first) felt that Labour's defeat was solely to do with the Party not supporting Leave. Momentum and other supporters of the Labour leader have framed the election as completely dominated by Brexit, and Laura Parker of Momentum stated that:
He declared at his count he would not lead Labour into another election, but has not as of yet resigned.
If he does, the next Leader would in all likelihood be from the left of the Party, given the fact that the Labour membership has become more and more left-wing since Corbyn's election in 2015.
Potential names for a successor include Sir Keir Starmer, Jess Phillips, Rebecca Long-Bailey, and Emily Thornberry. At her count, Thornberry proclaimed:
6. The Portillo Moment?
Several contenders here.
First up has to be Jo Swinson, who lost her seat of East Dunbartonshire, and the Leadership of the Liberal Democrats.
Dennis Skinner lost his seat after 49 years, meaning Sir Peter Bottomley is the new Father of the House.
Zac Goldsmith lost in Richmond Park, Nigel Dodds (leader of the DUP at Westminster) lost his Belfast seat, and Laura Pidcock (who was massively unpopular in her constituency) managed to lose North West Durham to the Conservatives for the first time ever.
Any other nominations?
7. Northern Ireland
For the first time ever, Northern Ireland will return more Nationalist MPs than Unionist MPs.
The SDLP won Foyle from Sinn Féin, and Belfast South from the DUP. In addition, the Alliance Party won Down North. This means that (unlike the last Parliament), there will be a Remain voice from Northern Ireland (as Sinn Féin do not take their seats).
The longer-term implications of the Prime Minister's Brexit deal, and the potential customs checks between Great Britain and Northern Ireland, are yet to be seen. The Speaker will call the Alliance and SDLP MPs in all Brexit debates so their voice will be heard. However, if Nationalist MPs retain this majority of Westminster seats, and translate that into a majority at Stormont, will the prospect of a united Ireland become closer to realisation?
8. Should I stay or should I go?
The SNP's rediscovered dominance north of the border brings the prospect of a second Scottish Independence Referendum into view. It is likely that Nicola Sturgeon will make a formal request for a referendum this month. It is equally likely that the Prime Minister will refuse this.
How will Remain voting Scotland react to the fact that the UK is now on course to leave the EU in 2020?
This debate will likely be played out via the media, and via the elections for the Scottish Parliament in 2021.
Will Scotland vote for independence if that means both leaving the UK and remaining outside of the EU, with potential accession talks to traverse?
9. Will we ever see a Labour Government again?
A serious question.
Labour have always depended on winning seats in the North-East, North-West, West Midlands, Wales and Scotland to win a majority.
Now they are fourth in Scotland, having been first there until 2015.
The Conservatives have eaten into their traditional base in England and Wales, with many seats which had never returned a Conservative MP until recently now having impregnable Tory majorities. A classic example is Mansfield. Having never returned a Tory MP until 2017, Ben Bradley now has a majority of over 16,000.
When Labour held 209 seats in 1983, it took three General Elections and fourteen years for them to return to power, and as pointed out above history may not repeat itself.
No party has ever come back from Labour's position to win a majority in the next election. This means that - in practical terms - there will likely be two full terms of Conservative majority Government. This would mean that the Conservatives would be in Government for twenty years.
In my view, this is too optimistic for Labour, given the structural difficulties they face electorally. If they do well, pick the right leader and policies, three electoral cycles could return a Labour majority. So set a date in your diaries for 2034 and see how accurate I am....
1. The Exit Poll was very accurate
At 10pm the broadcasters Exit Poll was released, and Sir John Curtice's psephology with Ipsos MORI proved remarkably accurate, as this rejected pitch for a new Avengers movie shows:
The composition of the House of Commons will be:
Conservatives - 365
Labour - 203
SNP - 48
Liberal Democrats - 11
DUP - 8
Sinn Féin - 7
Plaid Cymru - 4
SDLP - 2
Green Party - 1
Alliance - 1
This translates into a majority of 80.
The last time the Conservative Party had a majority this large was in 1987, when one Margaret Thatcher won her third straight General Election. Expect little to no opposition to the Government's legislative programme.
2. The Conservative Party are the natural party of Government
To be honest, many of us have grown up in a very misleading time.
The Labour Party were in office from 1997 to 2010, a full thirteen years. Many of us would have voted in a General Election where Labour were in power. But this length of Labour Government was an aberration.
The thirteen years of Labour rule was the longest period of non-Conservative rule in this country since 1763. The Conservatives are very much the natural party of Government.
If Boris Johnson fulfils a full five-year term (which is as close to certain as you can get), it will be fifty years since a Labour leader other than Tony Blair won a General Election.
The Conservative Party's ruthlessness when it comes to winning elections means that it has in the past, and did yesterday, find a winning formula when many people doubted in could. In 2015, David Cameron compiled a majority out of metropolitan seats in major cities, plus the shires. Yesterday, Boris Johnson won a huge majority whilst losing London, Birmingham, Manchester, Liverpool and Newcastle, amongst others. The new Conservative Government has MPs from the shires, to be sure, but also MPs from old mining areas, towns, semi-urban areas and rural Scotland.
If the electoral maths change by the time of the 2024 General Election, do not discount the Conservative Party's ability to find a winning combination where one seemed difficult to find.
3. The Red Wall breached? More like destroyed...
What is the 'Red Wall'?
It essentially was a shorthand way of describing a swath of seats which the Labour Party held for many decades, many since before the Second World War.
The Red Wall included constituencies in the Midlands and the North which - although Labour - did vote Leave in the 2016 Referendum.
The Wall was meant to stand up to a Tory victory. It did in 1983, when Labour only won 209 seats.
Unfortunately for the Labour Party, it did not yesterday. This is, for me, the most significant part of the Election. The Conservative Party did not just win in these seats - they won convincingly. Labour will not win an election again without winning back these seats.
To illustrate, here were Labour majorities in red wall seats in 1997:
- Bolsover: 27,149 (created in 1950, never elected a Tory)
- Sedgefield: 25,143 (last elected a Tory MP in 1931, and Tony Blair's old seat)
- North West Durham: 24,754 (created in 1885, never elected a Tory)
- Leigh: 24,496 (created in 1885, never elected a Tory)
- Bishop Auckland: 21,064 (created in 1885, never elected a Tory)
- Redcar: 21,664 (last elected a Tory MP in 1959)
- Stoke on Trent Central: 19,924 (created in 1950, never elected a Tory)
- Workington: 19,656 (created in 1918, never elected a Tory at a General Election)
- Blyth Valley: 17,736 (last elected a Tory MP in 1931)
- Bassetlaw: 17,460 (last elected a Tory MP in 1910)
- Stoke on Trent North: 17,392 (created in 1950, never elected a Tory)
- Great Grimsby: 16,244 (last elected a Tory MP in 1924)
- Darlington: 16,025 (last elected a Tory MP in 1983)
- Wakefield: 14,604 (last elected a Tory MP in 1931)
- West Bromwich West: 13,584 (last elected a Tory MP in 1931)
- West Bromwich East: 11,355 (from 2001, was the Speaker's seat in 1997 - last elected a Tory MP in 1931)
All listed have gone blue (and I have missed a number out too for the sake of brevity).
Will this new constituency representation change the nature of the Conservative Party? Previously they haven't had to think about these communities - now they represent them.
4. 2019 is worse for Labour than 1997 was for the Conservative Party
In 1997, the Conservative Party received its worst election result since 1832.
They ended up with 9.6m votes, 30.7% of the vote, and only 165 seats. In the 2019 Election, Labour's figures were better on all counts. However, I think that this result is much worse for Labour.
Here is the electoral map from 1997:
Importantly for the Conservative Party, the seats it hanged on to were generally very safe, and provided a base for the long rebuilding in the elections to follow. Likewise, their voting base in 1997 was stable and could be relied upon for future votes.
Now, here is 2019:
Unlike 1997, Labour does not have the same solid base as the Conservative Party did. In addition, many of the seats it did hang on to (for example, Dagenham and Rainham), were secured with razor thin majorities and would be vulnerable to minor swings at a constituency level. This means that if the Labour Party could be vulnerable to losses both if they decide to remain as left-wing as they are now, and if they choose a centrist path.
The electoral map has been redrawn, perhaps permanently. This image from The Times illustrates the swings both toward Labour in 2017, and the simply massive swing away from Labour yesterday:
These swings have meant that the Conservative Party now either holds traditional Labour seats, or is running them very close in their heartlands. In short, the Conservative Party in 1997 could effectively follow the old rules and approaches to politics in rebuilding. The Labour Party does not have this luxury, even if the Conservative vote fell in Remain areas.
5. Oh... Jeremy Corbyn....
In terms of seats, this is Labour's worst electoral performance since the 1935 General Election. There, led by one Clement Attlee, Labour won just 145 seats.
However, in 1931 Labour won just 52 seats (in part due to that pesky Zinoviev letter), and Attlee was only appointed a month before the Election to replace one George Lansbury, a white haired bearded pacifist who opposed rearmament in the face of German fascism. After making a speech at Labour Conference extolling the virtues of pacifism and opposing sanctions against aggressive countries, Ernest Bevin (the future Home Secretary), accused Lansbury of putting his private beliefs ahead of a policy agreed by the Party, and accused him of "hawking [his] conscience round from body to body asking to be told what to do with it".
Already the recriminations have started. Ian Lavery (if he offers to sort out a pension for you, read this first) felt that Labour's defeat was solely to do with the Party not supporting Leave. Momentum and other supporters of the Labour leader have framed the election as completely dominated by Brexit, and Laura Parker of Momentum stated that:
Yet it was indisputable that Corbyn himself was an issue on the doorstep - see here and here.
He declared at his count he would not lead Labour into another election, but has not as of yet resigned.
If he does, the next Leader would in all likelihood be from the left of the Party, given the fact that the Labour membership has become more and more left-wing since Corbyn's election in 2015.
Potential names for a successor include Sir Keir Starmer, Jess Phillips, Rebecca Long-Bailey, and Emily Thornberry. At her count, Thornberry proclaimed:
Good to know she winged it during the Election....
6. The Portillo Moment?
Several contenders here.
First up has to be Jo Swinson, who lost her seat of East Dunbartonshire, and the Leadership of the Liberal Democrats.
Dennis Skinner lost his seat after 49 years, meaning Sir Peter Bottomley is the new Father of the House.
Zac Goldsmith lost in Richmond Park, Nigel Dodds (leader of the DUP at Westminster) lost his Belfast seat, and Laura Pidcock (who was massively unpopular in her constituency) managed to lose North West Durham to the Conservatives for the first time ever.
Any other nominations?
7. Northern Ireland
For the first time ever, Northern Ireland will return more Nationalist MPs than Unionist MPs.
The SDLP won Foyle from Sinn Féin, and Belfast South from the DUP. In addition, the Alliance Party won Down North. This means that (unlike the last Parliament), there will be a Remain voice from Northern Ireland (as Sinn Féin do not take their seats).
The longer-term implications of the Prime Minister's Brexit deal, and the potential customs checks between Great Britain and Northern Ireland, are yet to be seen. The Speaker will call the Alliance and SDLP MPs in all Brexit debates so their voice will be heard. However, if Nationalist MPs retain this majority of Westminster seats, and translate that into a majority at Stormont, will the prospect of a united Ireland become closer to realisation?
8. Should I stay or should I go?
The SNP's rediscovered dominance north of the border brings the prospect of a second Scottish Independence Referendum into view. It is likely that Nicola Sturgeon will make a formal request for a referendum this month. It is equally likely that the Prime Minister will refuse this.
How will Remain voting Scotland react to the fact that the UK is now on course to leave the EU in 2020?
This debate will likely be played out via the media, and via the elections for the Scottish Parliament in 2021.
Will Scotland vote for independence if that means both leaving the UK and remaining outside of the EU, with potential accession talks to traverse?
9. Will we ever see a Labour Government again?
A serious question.
Labour have always depended on winning seats in the North-East, North-West, West Midlands, Wales and Scotland to win a majority.
Now they are fourth in Scotland, having been first there until 2015.
The Conservatives have eaten into their traditional base in England and Wales, with many seats which had never returned a Conservative MP until recently now having impregnable Tory majorities. A classic example is Mansfield. Having never returned a Tory MP until 2017, Ben Bradley now has a majority of over 16,000.
When Labour held 209 seats in 1983, it took three General Elections and fourteen years for them to return to power, and as pointed out above history may not repeat itself.
No party has ever come back from Labour's position to win a majority in the next election. This means that - in practical terms - there will likely be two full terms of Conservative majority Government. This would mean that the Conservatives would be in Government for twenty years.
In my view, this is too optimistic for Labour, given the structural difficulties they face electorally. If they do well, pick the right leader and policies, three electoral cycles could return a Labour majority. So set a date in your diaries for 2034 and see how accurate I am....
That's my betting... No deal with the EU or at best a shitty one by the next election ... And not even half way through the negotiations with people like USA and China / india (but it being apparent our negotiating position is not a great one)... Combine that with the demographic shift in say 10 years and I honestly think there will be significant groundswell of opinion to as a minimum go for eea type arrangement including fom ... That said a week is a long time in politics therefoe 10 years is a bloody long time
From the BBC:
Ms Flint added: "I don't believe anybody who have been the architects of our European policy in the last few years is credible to be leader. I don't think they can win back these seats."
Instead, she said Ms Nandy and shadow business secretary Rebecca Long-Bailey were "worth looking at".
Mr McDonnell said it "should be a woman leader next" and was "most probably time for a non-metropolitan" leader, adding: "I think it is time for a non-London MP, we need a northern voice as much as possible."
Seems even they are seeing what I was saying about Starmer. Looks like Nandy has the best profile.
Ms Flint added: "I don't believe anybody who have been the architects of our European policy in the last few years is credible to be leader. I don't think they can win back these seats."
Instead, she said Ms Nandy and shadow business secretary Rebecca Long-Bailey were "worth looking at".
Mr McDonnell said it "should be a woman leader next" and was "most probably time for a non-metropolitan" leader, adding: "I think it is time for a non-London MP, we need a northern voice as much as possible."
Seems even they are seeing what I was saying about Starmer. Looks like Nandy has the best profile.
Thanks @MikeUpNorth and @Frosty, two informative and interesting posts!
For me it’s Lisa Nandy although that’s the kiss of death for her. Labour need to get away from its obsession with London. Trouble is that after supporting stage 1 of the WA she has not the faintest chance given that momentum rules the labour party. And who do I blame for the Labour party’s demise. Not JC but Ed Milliband. It’s that tosspot that allowed Momentum to gain control. It’s all very well saying that it’s resulted in the party having the largest number of active members of any party in the EU. Sad that the country will never trust the evangelical tossers.
"Even they" would make sense as a turn of phrase if centrist, metropolitan remainers were saying it. This is just "they".
Superb summary. Chuckled at the Lavery mention, dodgy bloke. Is that true about Pidcock as well? I'd heard the left praising her but not much else.I had to write something on the election for work on Friday morning. I thought it may be illuminating as (in my view) it underscores the challenges which face Labour:
1. The Exit Poll was very accurate
At 10pm the broadcasters Exit Poll was released, and Sir John Curtice's psephology with Ipsos MORI proved remarkably accurate, as this rejected pitch for a new Avengers movie shows:
The composition of the House of Commons will be:
Conservatives - 365
Labour - 203
SNP - 48
Liberal Democrats - 11
DUP - 8
Sinn Féin - 7
Plaid Cymru - 4
SDLP - 2
Green Party - 1
Alliance - 1
This translates into a majority of 80.
The last time the Conservative Party had a majority this large was in 1987, when one Margaret Thatcher won her third straight General Election. Expect little to no opposition to the Government's legislative programme.
2. The Conservative Party are the natural party of Government
To be honest, many of us have grown up in a very misleading time.
The Labour Party were in office from 1997 to 2010, a full thirteen years. Many of us would have voted in a General Election where Labour were in power. But this length of Labour Government was an aberration.
The thirteen years of Labour rule was the longest period of non-Conservative rule in this country since 1763. The Conservatives are very much the natural party of Government.
If Boris Johnson fulfils a full five-year term (which is as close to certain as you can get), it will be fifty years since a Labour leader other than Tony Blair won a General Election.
The Conservative Party's ruthlessness when it comes to winning elections means that it has in the past, and did yesterday, find a winning formula when many people doubted in could. In 2015, David Cameron compiled a majority out of metropolitan seats in major cities, plus the shires. Yesterday, Boris Johnson won a huge majority whilst losing London, Birmingham, Manchester, Liverpool and Newcastle, amongst others. The new Conservative Government has MPs from the shires, to be sure, but also MPs from old mining areas, towns, semi-urban areas and rural Scotland.
If the electoral maths change by the time of the 2024 General Election, do not discount the Conservative Party's ability to find a winning combination where one seemed difficult to find.
3. The Red Wall breached? More like destroyed...
What is the 'Red Wall'?
It essentially was a shorthand way of describing a swath of seats which the Labour Party held for many decades, many since before the Second World War.
The Red Wall included constituencies in the Midlands and the North which - although Labour - did vote Leave in the 2016 Referendum.
The Wall was meant to stand up to a Tory victory. It did in 1983, when Labour only won 209 seats.
Unfortunately for the Labour Party, it did not yesterday. This is, for me, the most significant part of the Election. The Conservative Party did not just win in these seats - they won convincingly. Labour will not win an election again without winning back these seats.
To illustrate, here were Labour majorities in red wall seats in 1997:
- Bolsover: 27,149 (created in 1950, never elected a Tory)
- Sedgefield: 25,143 (last elected a Tory MP in 1931, and Tony Blair's old seat)
- North West Durham: 24,754 (created in 1885, never elected a Tory)
- Leigh: 24,496 (created in 1885, never elected a Tory)
- Bishop Auckland: 21,064 (created in 1885, never elected a Tory)
- Redcar: 21,664 (last elected a Tory MP in 1959)
- Stoke on Trent Central: 19,924 (created in 1950, never elected a Tory)
- Workington: 19,656 (created in 1918, never elected a Tory at a General Election)
- Blyth Valley: 17,736 (last elected a Tory MP in 1931)
- Bassetlaw: 17,460 (last elected a Tory MP in 1910)
- Stoke on Trent North: 17,392 (created in 1950, never elected a Tory)
- Great Grimsby: 16,244 (last elected a Tory MP in 1924)
- Darlington: 16,025 (last elected a Tory MP in 1983)
- Wakefield: 14,604 (last elected a Tory MP in 1931)
- West Bromwich West: 13,584 (last elected a Tory MP in 1931)
- West Bromwich East: 11,355 (from 2001, was the Speaker's seat in 1997 - last elected a Tory MP in 1931)
All listed have gone blue (and I have missed a number out too for the sake of brevity).
Will this new constituency representation change the nature of the Conservative Party? Previously they haven't had to think about these communities - now they represent them.
4. 2019 is worse for Labour than 1997 was for the Conservative Party
In 1997, the Conservative Party received its worst election result since 1832.
They ended up with 9.6m votes, 30.7% of the vote, and only 165 seats. In the 2019 Election, Labour's figures were better on all counts. However, I think that this result is much worse for Labour.
Here is the electoral map from 1997:
Importantly for the Conservative Party, the seats it hanged on to were generally very safe, and provided a base for the long rebuilding in the elections to follow. Likewise, their voting base in 1997 was stable and could be relied upon for future votes.
Now, here is 2019:
Unlike 1997, Labour does not have the same solid base as the Conservative Party did. In addition, many of the seats it did hang on to (for example, Dagenham and Rainham), were secured with razor thin majorities and would be vulnerable to minor swings at a constituency level. This means that if the Labour Party could be vulnerable to losses both if they decide to remain as left-wing as they are now, and if they choose a centrist path.
The electoral map has been redrawn, perhaps permanently. This image from The Times illustrates the swings both toward Labour in 2017, and the simply massive swing away from Labour yesterday:
These swings have meant that the Conservative Party now either holds traditional Labour seats, or is running them very close in their heartlands. In short, the Conservative Party in 1997 could effectively follow the old rules and approaches to politics in rebuilding. The Labour Party does not have this luxury, even if the Conservative vote fell in Remain areas.
5. Oh... Jeremy Corbyn....
In terms of seats, this is Labour's worst electoral performance since the 1935 General Election. There, led by one Clement Attlee, Labour won just 145 seats.
However, in 1931 Labour won just 52 seats (in part due to that pesky Zinoviev letter), and Attlee was only appointed a month before the Election to replace one George Lansbury, a white haired bearded pacifist who opposed rearmament in the face of German fascism. After making a speech at Labour Conference extolling the virtues of pacifism and opposing sanctions against aggressive countries, Ernest Bevin (the future Home Secretary), accused Lansbury of putting his private beliefs ahead of a policy agreed by the Party, and accused him of "hawking [his] conscience round from body to body asking to be told what to do with it".
Already the recriminations have started. Ian Lavery (if he offers to sort out a pension for you, read this first) felt that Labour's defeat was solely to do with the Party not supporting Leave. Momentum and other supporters of the Labour leader have framed the election as completely dominated by Brexit, and Laura Parker of Momentum stated that:
Yet it was indisputable that Corbyn himself was an issue on the doorstep - see here and here.
He declared at his count he would not lead Labour into another election, but has not as of yet resigned.
If he does, the next Leader would in all likelihood be from the left of the Party, given the fact that the Labour membership has become more and more left-wing since Corbyn's election in 2015.
Potential names for a successor include Sir Keir Starmer, Jess Phillips, Rebecca Long-Bailey, and Emily Thornberry. At her count, Thornberry proclaimed:
Good to know she winged it during the Election....
6. The Portillo Moment?
Several contenders here.
First up has to be Jo Swinson, who lost her seat of East Dunbartonshire, and the Leadership of the Liberal Democrats.
Dennis Skinner lost his seat after 49 years, meaning Sir Peter Bottomley is the new Father of the House.
Zac Goldsmith lost in Richmond Park, Nigel Dodds (leader of the DUP at Westminster) lost his Belfast seat, and Laura Pidcock (who was massively unpopular in her constituency) managed to lose North West Durham to the Conservatives for the first time ever.
Any other nominations?
7. Northern Ireland
For the first time ever, Northern Ireland will return more Nationalist MPs than Unionist MPs.
The SDLP won Foyle from Sinn Féin, and Belfast South from the DUP. In addition, the Alliance Party won Down North. This means that (unlike the last Parliament), there will be a Remain voice from Northern Ireland (as Sinn Féin do not take their seats).
The longer-term implications of the Prime Minister's Brexit deal, and the potential customs checks between Great Britain and Northern Ireland, are yet to be seen. The Speaker will call the Alliance and SDLP MPs in all Brexit debates so their voice will be heard. However, if Nationalist MPs retain this majority of Westminster seats, and translate that into a majority at Stormont, will the prospect of a united Ireland become closer to realisation?
8. Should I stay or should I go?
The SNP's rediscovered dominance north of the border brings the prospect of a second Scottish Independence Referendum into view. It is likely that Nicola Sturgeon will make a formal request for a referendum this month. It is equally likely that the Prime Minister will refuse this.
How will Remain voting Scotland react to the fact that the UK is now on course to leave the EU in 2020?
This debate will likely be played out via the media, and via the elections for the Scottish Parliament in 2021.
Will Scotland vote for independence if that means both leaving the UK and remaining outside of the EU, with potential accession talks to traverse?
9. Will we ever see a Labour Government again?
A serious question.
Labour have always depended on winning seats in the North-East, North-West, West Midlands, Wales and Scotland to win a majority.
Now they are fourth in Scotland, having been first there until 2015.
The Conservatives have eaten into their traditional base in England and Wales, with many seats which had never returned a Conservative MP until recently now having impregnable Tory majorities. A classic example is Mansfield. Having never returned a Tory MP until 2017, Ben Bradley now has a majority of over 16,000.
When Labour held 209 seats in 1983, it took three General Elections and fourteen years for them to return to power, and as pointed out above history may not repeat itself.
No party has ever come back from Labour's position to win a majority in the next election. This means that - in practical terms - there will likely be two full terms of Conservative majority Government. This would mean that the Conservatives would be in Government for twenty years.
In my view, this is too optimistic for Labour, given the structural difficulties they face electorally. If they do well, pick the right leader and policies, three electoral cycles could return a Labour majority. So set a date in your diaries for 2034 and see how accurate I am....
Also a very telling point with Mansfield. I was looking at the seats Miliband lost in 2015 to the Tories, only a handful in total as most of the losses were in Scotland, but it's notable that they've all gone from narrow Tory majorities to big ones, most of them about 10k or over. Even worse when you look at the seats that Miliband was looking to gain in that election just to form a minority - Nuneaton is 13k+ now and that was the minimum needed. It's a bleak outlook and very difficult to see the path forward. I can see how @MikeUpNorth's approach above might work electorally, but no chance it would pass muster with the current membership.
If you look at the Labour defenses for 2024 - http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative#UKParliament - it doesn't take a huge swing towards the Tories to approach Blair level majorities. Unlikely, maybe, but they've increased their vote share at each of the last 6 elections, which is already unprecedented. A mistake in choosing the next leader could easily lead the public to think Labour is a basket case and punish them again.
I wish Labour would ask Caroline Lucus to join up and then appoint her as leader.
I think its very important to remember the media optics of the despatch box: Labour needs someone with the intellectual capacity and human empathy that can show the country exactly whom Boris is. Appointing someone who is merely combative will normalise Boris.
I think Lucus would show the country just exactly what Boris is. she's also smart enough to respond back
I think its very important to remember the media optics of the despatch box: Labour needs someone with the intellectual capacity and human empathy that can show the country exactly whom Boris is. Appointing someone who is merely combative will normalise Boris.
I think Lucus would show the country just exactly what Boris is. she's also smart enough to respond back
I just don't think either Rebecca Long-Surname or Nandy have "it" required to lead an opposition to a GE win. I think at least Nandy appeals to a core on the centre left but I can't see Long-Bailey getting anywhere with either of Labour's factions because she's just uninspiring.
Why do you say that?
Pretty much all of her arguments are emotive ones and her speeches in parliament always descend into a finger jibing nonsense. She's just an ultra-reactionary who is very appealing to a small group of people and deeply unappealing to far more. She's basically the left's Mark Francois.
@Frosty Why do you say Pidcock was unpopular? A lot of the people I worked with in Consett and Stanley as a postie are exactly the sort of Labour Leaver demographic who will have voted for Brexit Party this time round and no-one I spoke to had anything but praise for her as an individual. She had a fantastic reputation as a constituency MP.
Pidcock was parachuted in and (I appreciate that this is not scientific) every story I have heard about her has been negative, especially from Labour members and activists themselves.
In fact, I know many Labour activists who actively celebrated her defeat, part in revenge for Diane Abbott celebrating Ed Balls's defeat in 2015.
Any chance of a streamlined manifesto and a leader/deputy leader combo that can straddle both sides of the party? Or does it always have to be either/or?
Yeah, Pidcock is pretty universally seen as the kind of patronising and self-righteous person characteristic of the Labour left right now.
The mere mention of anything other than left on here over the past few days has shown the either/or route to be the case more often than not.
But as always, the real world outside this little bubble may very well be different. Hopefully anyway.
So momentum have a group call with John McDonnell and ash sarka tonight
As much as there is people saying on here the factions of the party need to come together does anybody realistically expect that to be the action these two propose
As much as there is people saying on here the factions of the party need to come together does anybody realistically expect that to be the action these two propose
.
Hi there, I just wanted to send you a quick message about our call tonight with John McDonnell and Ash Sarkar to talk through our plan to reflect and grow as a movement over the next few months.
We've already got 3,000 people registered for the call, and we're expecting it to be a really special one. It'd be great if you could join us - register for the call here:
bit.ly/15DecCall
We've built an incredible movement during this election campaign. Now let's harness that energy and make sure our movement grow even stronger.
See you tonight