NFL 2021

Status
Not open for further replies.

RobinLFC

Cries when Liverpool doesn't get praised
Joined
May 20, 2014
Messages
20,929
Location
Belgium
Supports
Liverpool
Just don't believe they would trade so much away for someone who there was 0 talk about going until maybe 10th at best. Trading up with 1 guy in mind to me screams Fields, and the rest has been loads of noise. At least it's what would make the most sense. Could be that somebody has swayed him though.
That was my initial reaction too, so maybe the reports are just off. Lance has the ceiling too to be drafted that high and developped behind Jimmy for a year, but that would be a lot riskier to trade away that much for.
 

bosnian_red

Worst scout to ever exist
Joined
Aug 13, 2011
Messages
58,021
Location
Canada
That was my initial reaction too, so maybe the reports are just off. Lance has the ceiling too to be drafted that high and developped behind Jimmy for a year, but that would be a lot riskier to trade away that much for.
Yep, and he mentioned he wants a starting QB so again, Fields, rather than someone who it would make sense to sit for a year like Lance.
 

Raoul

Admin
Staff
Joined
Aug 14, 1999
Messages
130,183
Location
Hollywood CA
Also completely disagree that QBs are a lottery. Looking at the Super Bowl winners (with or without Brady) doesn't paint the full picture. The best QBs in the NFL are consistently chosen in the first round (Rodgers, Mahomes, Watson, Allen, Murray, Lamar, Tannehill, Ryan, Stafford, Mayfield, ...).

It's no sure thing of course but the hit rate is way higher for first-round QBs than QBs outside of it. Out of the 5 projected in the first round there obviously can be 2 busts (or even 3) but if you take the next tier of QBs (Trask, Mond, Newman, Mills) it's not even sure that one will make it as an NFL starter whereas that's almost guaranteed out of the first 5 projected ones. Yeah one of them can be the next Wilson or Prescott but much more unlikely and much more uncertainty with your pick in that case.
I agree that you're going to have a better chance of choosing a better QB in the first round, but if history is any guide, only one of those listed above has won a Super Bowl over the past decade and most will never win one, which is food for thought given that winning it all is the ultimate goal for every team. This is also why just as with RBs, teams have to choose the best player available relative to their most pressing needs, and do their own thorough, rigorous internal research on players instead of relying on random Twitter stat muppet accounts like many on the outside do.
 

RobinLFC

Cries when Liverpool doesn't get praised
Joined
May 20, 2014
Messages
20,929
Location
Belgium
Supports
Liverpool
But I don't agree with this "rigorous internal research" argument or "NFL teams have more money and better access to scouting reports so they know what they are doing" train of thought. It's not because you're a fantasy analyst instead of an NFL scout that your thought process or outcome is necessarily worse imo.

 

JPRouve

can't stop thinking about balls - NOT deflategate
Scout
Joined
Jan 31, 2014
Messages
65,865
Location
France
Grades are based on observing players in an environment that they will not operate in within the NFL. Prospects have better coaches, better teammates and sometimes more times to focus on football when they turn pro. It's also based on the bias of the evaluator who may overvalue or undervalue certain traits and that's without even taking into account the fact that the evaluator could also fail to evaluate properly a player within his own flawed process.
 

ha_rooney

Correctly predicted France to win World Cup 2018
Joined
Dec 13, 2008
Messages
38,836
Keep reading speculation that the Pats will move up for a QB, but nothing yet. Bill went crazy (by his standards) in FA, so hoping he can deliver something big in the draft too.
 

Raoul

Admin
Staff
Joined
Aug 14, 1999
Messages
130,183
Location
Hollywood CA
But I don't agree with this "rigorous internal research" argument or "NFL teams have more money and better access to scouting reports so they know what they are doing" train of thought. It's not because you're a fantasy analyst instead of an NFL scout that your thought process or outcome is necessarily worse imo.

That's on the GM or multiple GMs who didn't rate Mahomes. If they are that far off the mark more than once then they are probably not going to be in a job for much longer. People on the inside have access to far more info on players than twitter stat accounts or draft gurus like Kiper. Work ethic, personality, aptitude to learn a playbook, desire to succeed, film study habits, the circle of friends they associate with etc., are all things that can't be measured without talking to people in the player's immediate circle. On the other hand, a GM can't compensate much for a head coach's performance or where the organization is headed at a given moment, other wise the Cards and Jets wouldn't have taken Rosen and Darnold top 10 in 2018, only to ditch both of them later.
 

Raoul

Admin
Staff
Joined
Aug 14, 1999
Messages
130,183
Location
Hollywood CA
Keep reading speculation that the Pats will move up for a QB, but nothing yet. Bill went crazy (by his standards) in FA, so hoping he can deliver something big in the draft too.
I believe Belichick is attempting to trade up for Fields.
 

swooshboy

Band of Brothers
Joined
Aug 3, 2004
Messages
10,737
Location
London
That was my initial reaction too, so maybe the reports are just off. Lance has the ceiling too to be drafted that high and developed behind Jimmy for a year, but that would be a lot riskier to trade away that much for.
I completely agree that 3 is far too high to be taking Jones at, but the more I think about it, the more I think it will unfortunately be Jones.

It just feels like he has been Shanahan's guy from the start – and all this latest talk has been to show that he has looked at all the other prospects. I think he feels the Niners are in Super Bowl contention this season – and the biggest obstacle to them getting there is an injury to Jimmy G (because there is a huge drop-off from him to either of our backups). I think he feels that Jones would be the easiest slot-in replacement for Garoppolo – and the most game-ready QB. Of course, as that stat I posted yesterday says, Jones actually has had far fewer under center looks than either Fields or Lance – and I don't think he is as comfortable with the play-action, which is a very important element of our offence.

I really hope I am wrong – would desperately love to have either Fields or Lance!
 

ha_rooney

Correctly predicted France to win World Cup 2018
Joined
Dec 13, 2008
Messages
38,836
I believe Belichick is attempting to trade up for Fields.
Hope we get him/one of the other QBs. I’m not confident Cam will be any better than last year.
 

RobinLFC

Cries when Liverpool doesn't get praised
Joined
May 20, 2014
Messages
20,929
Location
Belgium
Supports
Liverpool
I completely agree that 3 is far too high to be taking Jones at, but the more I think about it, the more I think it will unfortunately be Jones.

It just feels like he has been Shanahan's guy from the start – and all this latest talk has been to show that he has looked at all the other prospects. I think he feels the Niners are in Super Bowl contention this season – and the biggest obstacle to them getting there is an injury to Jimmy G (because there is a huge drop-off from him to either of our backups). I think he feels that Jones would be the easiest slot-in replacement for Garoppolo – and the most game-ready QB. Of course, as that stat I posted yesterday says, Jones actually has had far fewer under center looks than either Fields or Lance – and I don't think he is as comfortable with the play-action, which is a very important element of our offence.

I really hope I am wrong – would desperately love to have either Fields or Lance!
I get that and I agree with it, but then it would've made sense to see if he falls to you and then draft him anyway (which he very well might've had). Surely you don't give up your entire future to draft a QB similar to your own questionable starter just because your starter has a shaky injury history? Would be madness.
 

Raoul

Admin
Staff
Joined
Aug 14, 1999
Messages
130,183
Location
Hollywood CA
Hope we get him/one of the other QBs. I’m not confident Cam will be any better than last year.
I think he has to trade up or do something. Cam is clearly not the answer, nor is Stidtham at the moment. If the Pats have another losing year that would probably mark the end of BB's reign and he would be remembered as having achieved his success on Brady's coat tails.
 

muller

Full Member
Joined
May 27, 2008
Messages
8,890
As a Pats/Ohio State fan.. i'd be more than happy with Fields. But its BB. He will probably trade back from 15 to 16 and sign a backup punter.
 

RobinLFC

Cries when Liverpool doesn't get praised
Joined
May 20, 2014
Messages
20,929
Location
Belgium
Supports
Liverpool
Could be possible that Atlanta has deals in place with the likes of Denver or the Pats to trade down when their preferred QB slides past the Niners... Would make sense why they haven't traded back yet.
 

Organic Potatoes

Full Member
Joined
Dec 2, 2013
Messages
17,161
Location
85R723R2+R6
Supports
Colorado Rapids
Could be possible that Atlanta has deals in place with the likes of Denver or the Pats to trade down when their preferred QB slides past the Niners... Would make sense why they haven't traded back yet.
Supposedly they’re torn between winning now (Pitts) or securing their future (Fields if he falls (the Owner likes this)). The wild card is Chase if they actually are going to offload Julio for cap reasons. Or of course a trade down if Fields gets past 3.

So basically I just said a whole lot of nothing.
 

RobinLFC

Cries when Liverpool doesn't get praised
Joined
May 20, 2014
Messages
20,929
Location
Belgium
Supports
Liverpool
Supposedly they’re torn between winning now (Pitts) or securing their future (Fields if he falls (the Owner likes this)). The wild card is Chase if they actually are going to offload Julio for cap reasons. Or of course a trade down if Fields gets past 3.

So basically I just said a whole lot of nothing.
:lol:

Wasn't their defense very leaky last year? Not sure Pitts equals "winning now". I also don't know what Ryan's situation is there with cap space. They should start preparing for a future without him and Julio though imo and now is a good moment to start doing that.
 

MrMarcello

In a well-ordered universe...
Joined
Dec 26, 2000
Messages
52,760
Location
On a pale blue dot in space
I agree that you're going to have a better chance of choosing a better QB in the first round, but if history is any guide, only one of those listed above has won a Super Bowl over the past decade and most will never win one, which is food for thought given that winning it all is the ultimate goal for every team. This is also why just as with RBs, teams have to choose the best player available relative to their most pressing needs, and do their own thorough, rigorous internal research on players instead of relying on random Twitter stat muppet accounts like many on the outside do.
Really shouldn't limit this to a decade or two. Should go back to the merger for a fair recap. That said, I think the last QB taken #1 overall to win a SB is E. Manning, but many first round selections have won the big game. I counted 19 from the list in the article below without research, and a few won as backups (Bledsoe, Kosar, Fuller, Gabbert). A few others got to the SB as the starting QB, however, I don't think getting to/winning the SB should be the primary factor on which QBs were worth their selection spot in retrospect, we should look at each player's overall performance with the drafting club.

Here's a recent article highlighting all the first round QBs since 1966. https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.c...d-quarterbacks-by-team-in-the-super-bowl-era/
 

Organic Potatoes

Full Member
Joined
Dec 2, 2013
Messages
17,161
Location
85R723R2+R6
Supports
Colorado Rapids
:lol:

Wasn't their defense very leaky last year? Not sure Pitts equals "winning now". I also don't know what Ryan's situation is there with cap space. They should start preparing for a future without him and Julio though imo and now is a good moment to start doing that.
The idea would be going ham on offense while Ryan is still good. Julio-Calvin-Pitts would be scary. Being that there’s nobody resembling Chase Young this year, there’s no way to instantly upgrade their D to much extent this draft bar maybe a CB which they are too high to consider.

They restructured Ryan’s contract to reduce the cap hit which makes it easier to keep him instead of trading him next offseason, but who knows.
 

RoadTrip

petitioned for a just cause
Joined
May 9, 2013
Messages
26,392
Location
Los Pollos Hermanos...
Also really hoping we move up too. I think we have a plan and circumstances where we will move up I.e certain player being available at spot x. But I don’t think we will do any trading before the draft, it’ll be ok the day. I hope we do though. Nothing will come of another season with Cam at QB.
 

RoadTrip

petitioned for a just cause
Joined
May 9, 2013
Messages
26,392
Location
Los Pollos Hermanos...
Also completely disagree that QBs are a lottery. Looking at the Super Bowl winners (with or without Brady) doesn't paint the full picture. The best QBs in the NFL are consistently chosen in the first round (Rodgers, Mahomes, Watson, Allen, Murray, Lamar, Tannehill, Ryan, Stafford, Mayfield, ...).

It's no sure thing of course but the hit rate is way higher for first-round QBs than QBs outside of it. Out of the 5 projected in the first round there obviously can be 2 busts (or even 3) but if you take the next tier of QBs (Trask, Mond, Newman, Mills) it's not even sure that one will make it as an NFL starter whereas that's almost guaranteed out of the first 5 projected ones. Yeah one of them can be the next Wilson or Prescott but much more unlikely and much more uncertainty with your pick in that case.
To be fair my only challenge to this logic is that is this not also because first round QBs are given much more slack? With the exception of Rosen, teams persist with first round selections and they get given multiple shots and so inherently they are likely to gain experience and develop and have mire chances. Any QB taken late is either an instant hit or discarded at the very first failure.
 

ha_rooney

Correctly predicted France to win World Cup 2018
Joined
Dec 13, 2008
Messages
38,836

Impressive effort by Tampa to bring back all their key players from last year.
 

Raoul

Admin
Staff
Joined
Aug 14, 1999
Messages
130,183
Location
Hollywood CA

Impressive effort by Tampa to bring back all their key players from last year.
Fournette also gave up the chance to earn more elsewhere to return to the Bucs. They should be pretty strong again, especially if AB has a good year.
 

Rado_N

Yaaas Broncos!
Joined
Apr 6, 2009
Messages
111,120
Location
Manchester
I hope Brady’s arm falls off.


Like, literally, I hope it drops off and lands on the grass in week one.
 

Organic Potatoes

Full Member
Joined
Dec 2, 2013
Messages
17,161
Location
85R723R2+R6
Supports
Colorado Rapids
Florio was a lawyer, or is one or however that works, so he’s good for things like Watson...
The fact that the two lawyers at the center of the controversy, Tony Buzbee and Rusty Hardin, have fallen silent during draft week makes it hard not to wonder whether we’ll soon be hearing about the cases being resolved, followed by news of Watson being traded to a new team.
PFT
 

ha_rooney

Correctly predicted France to win World Cup 2018
Joined
Dec 13, 2008
Messages
38,836

Not unsurprised he’s gone there. Think that makes it unlikely that Denver now draft a QB.
 

RobinLFC

Cries when Liverpool doesn't get praised
Joined
May 20, 2014
Messages
20,929
Location
Belgium
Supports
Liverpool
I want a cool team to trade up to #4 and draft Lance or Fields :(

COME ON BEARS
 

RobinLFC

Cries when Liverpool doesn't get praised
Joined
May 20, 2014
Messages
20,929
Location
Belgium
Supports
Liverpool
Oh okay "Trade does not take Denver out of QB market Thursday night, per source".

COME ON BEARS AND BRONCOS
 

Organic Potatoes

Full Member
Joined
Dec 2, 2013
Messages
17,161
Location
85R723R2+R6
Supports
Colorado Rapids

Not unsurprised he’s gone there. Think that makes it unlikely that Denver now draft a QB.
I was about to start yelling at the clouds until I saw it was just a 6th and CAR’s also subsidizing his salary. I wouldn’t say it’s unlikely if something like Fields dropping happens, more like a dramatic trade up is unlikely.
 

Organic Potatoes

Full Member
Joined
Dec 2, 2013
Messages
17,161
Location
85R723R2+R6
Supports
Colorado Rapids
interesting. Sounds plausible. Who are the possible destinations now for him via trade? Miami? who else is left? Thanks
I’m clueless on this one. I want to say Pittsburgh but that’s just me being snarky. Gun to my head (maybe I shouldn’t have used that expression in this context), he sits out a year after being traded to a team that is desperately thirsty for a QB. Chicago comes to mind immediately.

This is assuming his trade value has dropped proportionally to the seriousness of these alleged crimes.
 

Raoul

Admin
Staff
Joined
Aug 14, 1999
Messages
130,183
Location
Hollywood CA
interesting. Sounds plausible. Who are the possible destinations now for him via trade? Miami? who else is left? Thanks
There were eight teams in for Watson before the massagegate story broke.

"Dolphins, Jets, Panthers, Broncos, 49ers, Patriots, Bears and Washington were all interested in a deal for Watson. The Dolphins were prepared to part with Tua Tagovailoa and the No. 3 pick that they instead dealt to the San Francisco 49ers. And that was just a starting point"


Hard to see any value in trading for him at this point, especially with the potential of a criminal trial looming.
 

bucky

Full Member
Joined
Apr 5, 2011
Messages
9,598
Not unsurprised he’s gone there. Think that makes it unlikely that Denver now draft a QB.
I think that makes it more likely. Get a rookie QB in that can learn from seasoned QB like Bridgewater. That's usually being used as a reasoning.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.