Nicola Sturgeon and Scottish Independence

[altodevil]

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A majority of Scots believe Scottish independence would be better for the country than staying in the UK after Brexit, a new poll reveals.

The Panelbase survey of 1,028 voters for The Sunday Times Scotland and LBC, before a crucial Commons vote on Theresa May’s withdrawal deal, found that more believe leaving the EU will be bad for Scotland than not.

Scottish independence would be better than a no-deal Brexit, say 59%, with 41% disagreeing. While 53% say independence would benefit the country more than staying in the UK but outside the EU under a negotiated Brexit deal, 47% take the opposite view.

The last thread was based on Salmond and his attempt. I suspect a new vote will happen within a few years, unless brexit is called off. It would be make or break for Sturgeon's career, as it was for Salmond's.

 

[nimic]

Surely Scottish independence was inevitable once the UK voted to leave the EU?

 

[sun_tzu]

If there is a general election there is a reasonable chance it could end up as a hung parliment ...
Clearly the snp price for propping up a government would be a second election... If they are sensible they will insist the whole of the UK gets to vote on kicking them out... Guaranteed "FREEDOOOOOOM"

 

[hobbers]

Think you can't find something more stupid than Brexit? Well, think again.

Just have to look at the SNP's attitude to the EU, and to being part of free markets in general, before and after Indyref. Immense levels of doublethink.

 

[Pexbo]

Think you can't find something more stupid than Brexit? Well, think again.

Just have to look at the SNP's attitude to the EU, and to being part of free markets in general, before and after Indyref. Immense levels of doublethink.

I thought the most ridiculous case of doublethink was Theresa May simultainiously explaining the the rest of the UK how oppressive Unions are and how great we can be outside of the Union while she spoke to the Scottish about how great Unions are and how much weaker they would be outside of the Union and how they would be insane to separate from their main trading partner as logistically it wouldn’t make sense to forge stronger trade partnerships further afield.

Not the onion indeed.

 

[Skills]

I think if the Scots had voted for independence in the first vote, they could've been the big winners of Brexit. It would've been an easy/natural process to absorb the business England is going to lose because of Brexit

 

[balaks]

I think if the Scots had voted for independence in the first vote, they could've been the big winners of Brexit. It would've been an easy/natural process to absorb the business England is going to lose because of Brexit

That is what I am hoping could happen in Northern Ireland with the backstop.

 

[hobbers]

I thought the most ridiculous case of doublethink was Theresa May simultainiously explaining the the rest of the UK how oppressive Unions are and how great we can be outside of the Union while she spoke to the Scottish about how great Unions are and how much weaker they would be outside of the Union and how they would be insane to separate from their main trading partner as logistically it wouldn’t make sense to forge stronger trade partnerships further afield.

Not the onion indeed.

Yeh that is equally as bad. Although Scotland outside the UK, trying to rejoin the EU on horribly unfavourable terms, is a much worse economic predicament than Britain after a no deal Brexit.

I think if the Scots had voted for independence in the first vote, they could've been the big winners of Brexit. It would've been an easy/natural process to absorb the business England is going to lose because of Brexit

Assuming Scotland had survived long enough from independence to Brexit.

 

[altodevil]

Yeh that is equally as bad. Although Scotland outside the UK, trying to rejoin the EU on horribly unfavourable terms, is a much worse economic predicament than Britain after a no deal Brexit.

Bollocks.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

Scotland is more dependent on trade with the UK than the UK is with the EU. 500000 job in Scotland are internal UK market dependent, which is a significant percentage of their working age population.

I used to be pro-union but I think the other home nations leaving the UK (if they wanted to) would be good for England. Sure there would be the symbolic loss of ‘Great Britain’ and couple of places lost on the GDP chart (we best get used to that anyway) but the amount of jobs and industry we could bring into the England would be significant. I’d like to see Manchester make a play for the Edinburgh financial sector which mostly serves the English domestic finance market.

 

[hobbers]

Bollocks.

Do you think EU membership will mitigate Scotland's huge budget deficit with the UK? Its debts with the UK? Protect its fishing industry? Reduce oil dependency? Replace all the lost RCUK funding? I could go on..

Unlike the UK, the EU does not give a feck if Scotland crashes and burns.

 

[altodevil]

Do you think EU membership will mitigate Scotland's huge budget deficit with the UK? Its debts with the UK? Protect its fishing industry? Reduce oil dependency? Replace all the lost RCUK funding? I could go on..

Unlike the UK, the EU does not give a feck if Scotland crashes and burns.

No I don't. But I think the UK trading on WTO terms is much, much, worse.

 

[Fridge chutney]

Would they still want to separate if Brexit gets cancelled?

 

[Kasper]

Yeh that is equally as bad. Although Scotland outside the UK, trying to rejoin the EU on horribly unfavourable terms, is a much worse economic predicament than Britain after a no deal Brexit.

The EU would make it very easy for Scottland to join and definitely not on horribly unfavourable terms. Don't know where you get that from.

 

[Steerpike]

The EU would make it very easy for Scottland to join and definitely not on horribly unfavourable terms. Don't know where you get that from.

Apart from some perverse desire to 'punish' the UK, why would the EU be especially keen on Scotland joining? It would be a small country with a small economy, and likely to be a net recipient for the foreseeable future (i.e. taking more in grants than it pays out in fees). It would also throw up all sorts of issues with currency and borders, and the EU would probably end up having to negotiate with the rest of the UK in a situation where the UK held the whip hand.

It's also very questionable that it would be great, economically, for Scotland. The trade Scotland does with the rest of the UK dwarfs what it does with the EU, and if trade between the EU and the UK becomes difficult, so would trade between the UK and an independent Scotland within the EU.

The independence debate in Scotland has always been more about emotion than economics, and Nicola Sturgeon hasn't been slow to try to exploit the opportunity thrown up by Brexit. If, or more likely when, the next indyref happens, the economic issues will get a proper airing, and the bland assertions about Scotland's future being in the EU will be scrutinised more thoroughly.

 

[sun_tzu]

The EU would make it very easy for Scottland to join and definitely not on horribly unfavourable terms. Don't know where you get that from.

Not sure Spain would... Catalonia etc

 

[altodevil]

Not sure Spain would... Catalonia etc

This is a complete and utter myth perpetuated by those with a rooting interest in the union. The amount of times it's been dismissed and yet people still peddle it....staggering.

 

[sun_tzu]

This is a complete and utter myth perpetuated by those with a rooting interest in the union. The amount of times it's been dismissed and yet people still peddle it....staggering.

Meh frankly I don't care... Make the vote UK wide and let us kick wee Jimmy cranky and the rest of them out...

 

[Fingeredmouse]

Meh frankly I don't care... Make the vote UK wide and let us kick wee Jimmy cranky and the rest of them out...

You'll still have Piers Morgan and Tommy Robinson though, so fair enough. Wee Jimmy can't be long for the World what with her age and mental debauchery.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

Would they still want to separate if Brexit gets cancelled?

These polls dont even show a majority for independence since Brexit

http://whatscotlandthinks.org/quest...-independence-referendum-if-held-now-ask#line

 

[altodevil]

Meh frankly I don't care... Make the vote UK wide and let us kick wee Jimmy cranky and the rest of them out...

Please do. Will be glad to be rid of you racist bigots.

 

[ThierryHenry]

This doesn’t really stack up. Brexit makes Scottish independence incredibly more difficult, if not outright impossible.

 

[Josep Dowling]

Would they still want to separate if Brexit gets cancelled?

Of course ‘they’ would want to be separate and by they I mean Sturgeon. She’s spends her entire time calling for Scottish independence I couldn’t even tell you what any of her other policies are. She lost her credibility years ago.

 

[altodevil]

Of course ‘they’ would want to be separate and by they I mean Sturgeon. She’s spends her entire time calling for Scottish independence I couldn’t even tell you what any of her other policies are. She lost her credibility years ago.

That's complete nonsense, you sound like Murdo Fraser.

 

[Fingeredmouse]

Of course ‘they’ would want to be separate and by they I mean Sturgeon. She’s spends her entire time calling for Scottish independence I couldn’t even tell you what any of her other policies are. She lost her credibility years ago.

About 3 minutes online research would inform you regarding her policies.

 

[rcoobc]

What a legacy May and Cameron have

 

[rcoobc]

This doesn’t really stack up. Brexit makes Scottish independence incredibly more difficult, if not outright impossible.

Eh?

 

[Ramshock]

Think you can't find something more stupid than Brexit? Well, think again.

Just have to look at the SNP's attitude to the EU, and to being part of free markets in general, before and after Indyref. Immense levels of doublethink.

Lets leave that up to the scots eh?

 

[Ramshock]

This doesn’t really stack up. Brexit makes Scottish independence incredibly more difficult, if not outright impossible.

you have to explain that one to me

 

[Cheesy]

I don't buy into any doublethink propaganda from the SNP about the EU being a *vitally important* cuddly teddy bear to Scotland (having treated the EU as totally insignificant in 2014) whilst it's clearly being a very mean old grizzly bear to the UK, and everyone else for that matter.

There's no incentive for the EU to be generous and accommodating to an independent Scotland. Corbynite-esque levels of devotion and fandom of the EU by SNP voters is not going to move any hearts in Brussels.

Youse can take our currency and we'll have yer fish, ta.

With Brexit and all right now there absolute is an incentive for the EU in that regard - it'd massively piss off the rest of the UK down south.

The stuff about the SNP being pro-independence being pro-EU being somehow hypocritical is bollocks anyway. Scottish independence (aside from some mentalists) has never really been about isolating Scotland from the rest of the UK and Europe (hence the SNP wanting a currency union in 2014) but was largely about people in Scotland thinking Scotland is a country and should therefore be a sovereign nation that makes its own decisions on key matters. In a globalised, connected world, though, there's obviously a recognition that those powers aren't going to be absolute and that you'll need to cooperate with closely aligned states on various key matters, sometimes to your own disadvantage.

 

[Cheesy]

This doesn’t really stack up. Brexit makes Scottish independence incredibly more difficult, if not outright impossible.

A hard Brexit would, yes - a soft Brexit where we're basically in the EU in all but name would make it somewhat viable though in that Scotland would probably pursue a similar deal to whatever the UK ends up with post-independence. In that regard Brexit would maybe be beneficial for Scotland in that the animosity between the UK and EU will make the EU more inclined to be fairly kind to Scotland, if only to piss off the UK even more at little cost.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

A hard Brexit would, yes - a soft Brexit where we're basically in the EU in all but name would make it somewhat viable though in that Scotland would probably pursue a similar deal to whatever the UK ends up with post-independence. In that regard Brexit would maybe be beneficial for Scotland in that the animosity between the UK and EU will make the EU more inclined to be fairly kind to Scotland, if only to piss off the UK even more at little cost.

I'm not sure that I follow you here. Why would the EU want to piss off a far greater trading partner to help a much smaller one?

I don't see how the Scotland or the EU has any purpose or leverage to go after the UK if Scotland becomes independent. I work out that the number of jobs that in Scotland that are completely dependent on the UK internal market is around 15%, 65% of Scottish exports go to the UK and of course there are the subsidies that from central government that prop up the Scottish economy.

Scotland will be almost completely submissive to the UK in any divorce talks and pretty much have cap in hand for a good deal.

 

[ThierryHenry]

Eh?

you have to explain that one to me

The vast majority of Scotland’s trade, in both goods and in services is with the rest of the UK, dwarfing the amount that they trade with the rest of the EU.

Post Brexit (even a soft one), there will be some financial or regulatory barriers to trade between the UK and the rest of the EU. Independence would therefore be a huge cost to every Scottish firm, harming the ability to trade with England. The economic impact would be multiples the size (as a % of GDP) of any Brexit scenario on the UK.

Not to mention the currency point. Outside of the current economic union with England, Scotland would surely have to join the Euro. The alternative is to have a currency union with a country without a full economic union, a shared political union or a joint central bank, which would be completely unsustainable. This would create an additional barrier to trade with the rest of the UK, and further harm Scotland’s economic interests. It would essentially be impossible to separate from the UK without destroying the economy.

On the other hand, if we cancel Brexit...

 

[Ramshock]

The vast majority of Scotland’s trade, in both goods and in services is with the rest of the UK, dwarfing the amount that they trade with the rest of the EU.

Post Brexit (even a soft one), there will be some financial or regulatory barriers to trade between the UK and the rest of the EU. Independence would therefore be a huge cost to every Scottish firm, harming the ability to trade with England. The economic impact would be multiples the size (as a % of GDP) of any Brexit scenario on the UK.

Not to mention the currency point. Outside of the current economic union with England, Scotland would surely have to join the Euro. The alternative is to have a currency union with a country without a full economic union, a shared political union or a joint central bank, which would be completely unsustainable. This would create an additional barrier to trade with the rest of the UK, and further harm Scotland’s economic interests. It would essentially be impossible to separate from the UK without destroying the economy.
On the other hand, if we cancel Brexit...

why couldnt they continue to trade to England/Wales and whatever Ireland shows up after all this?

 

[Classical Mechanic]

why couldnt they continue to trade to England/Wales and whatever Ireland shows up after all this?

They could continue to trade but why would the UK (whatever shape that would be in) let the mostly England dependent domestic banking sector remain in Edinburgh, for example?

There has to be a price for leaving the union which equate to a loss of the benefits of being in it, just like there is for the UK leaving the EU.

Its even more ridiculous for Scotland to leave the Union than it is for the UK to leave the EU. That won't impede fantastical nationalist thinking though because its about identity rather than economics. Sound familiar?

 

[altodevil]

They could continue to trade but why would the UK (whatever shape that would be in) let the mostly England dependent domestic banking sector remain in Edinburgh, for example?

There has to be a price for leaving the union which equate to a loss of the benefits of being in it, just like there is for the UK leaving the EU.

Its even more ridiculous for Scotland to leave the Union than it is for the UK to leave the EU. That won't impede fantastical nationalist thinking though because its about identity rather than economics. Sound familiar?

Some things do transcend economics though. I'd rather be a country with the economics of Portugal, but a government that is elected fairly, than the UK for instance.

It's also not as ridiculous now. Since the UK has gone and left, and we don't want to.

I think most of you are just bitter because you are the ones responsible for Brexit/Tories and can't do anything about it.

 

[Oldyella]

Some things do transcend economics though. I'd rather be a country with the economics of Portugal, but a government that is elected fairly, than the UK for instance.

It's also not as ridiculous now. Since the UK has gone and left, and we don't want to.

I think most of you are just bitter because you are the ones responsible for Brexit/Tories and can't do anything about it.

No doubt. Fair fecks to Scotland, they should be looking at the shit show south of them and wondering why they are tied to us.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

Some things do transcend economics though. I'd rather be a country with the economics of Portugal, but a government that is elected fairly, than the UK for instance.

It's also not as ridiculous now. Since the UK has gone and left, and we don't want to.

I think most of you are just bitter because you are the ones responsible for Brexit/Tories and can't do anything about it.

I don't see why anyone's bitter. I think Scotland leaving the UK would be good for the UK ultimately. A symbolic loss of course but the slew of jobs and industry that would move back into the trading borders of their primary market would be great, especially in the face of the probable economic impact of Brexit.

Tow things though, if Scotland would even vote for independence is far from clear and what happens regarding Brexit full stop is far from clear.

 

[altodevil]

I don't see why anyone's bitter. I think Scotland leaving the UK would be good for the UK ultimately. A symbolic loss of course but the slew jobs and industry that would move back into the trading borders of their primary market would be great, especially in the face of the probable economic impact of Brexit.

Tow things though, if Scotland would even vote for independence is far from clear and what happens regarding Brexit full stop is far from clear.

Interesting. So you think business would prefer to be in the UK, without free access to the EU, over an English-speaking Scotland in the EU with a land border to the rest of the UK? Can't disagree or agree, time will tell. I think the opposite holds true though.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

Interesting. So you think business would prefer to be in the UK, without free access to the EU, over an English-speaking Scotland in the EU with a land border to the rest of the UK? Can't disagree or agree, time will tell. I think the opposite holds true though.

Business that is entirely dependent on trade with the UK will want to be in the UK of course, this makes up a significant percentage of Scotland's jobs (about 15% or 500000 jobs). The Edinburgh finance industry mostly sells financial products to English customers, for example.