I was bored and started building this data set a few weeks ago based on this thread
The idea is to judge sporting value for money spent, so I took two different approaches. The first was to calculate the percentage increase in average points for every million dollars spent in a given year. The second was to take the 10 year average of average points per match for every million dollars spent. The first data set is unsorted. The second data set is sorted by 10-year Total Avg Pts/Net Spend:
* via https://www.transfermarkt.us/ ; figures in millions of US dollars
** via https://www.soccerbase.com/ ; all wins 3pts, all draws 1pt across all competitions; per match
*** percent mean point change per match per million dollars
* via https://www.transfermarkt.us/ ; figures in millions of US dollars
** via https://www.soccerbase.com/ ; all wins 3pts; all draws 1pt; across all competitions; per match
*** total mean points per match per million dollars
Drawbacks
The idea is to judge sporting value for money spent, so I took two different approaches. The first was to calculate the percentage increase in average points for every million dollars spent in a given year. The second was to take the 10 year average of average points per match for every million dollars spent. The first data set is unsorted. The second data set is sorted by 10-year Total Avg Pts/Net Spend:
| Club | Season | Spent ($ millions)* | Sold ($ millions)* | Net ($ millions) | Avg Pts** | Avg Pts Prev** | Avg Pts Δ** | Avg Pts Δ% ** | Avg Pts Δ % / Spend*** |
| Manchester United | 2019-2020 | 236.25 | 89.3 | 146.95 | 1.82 | 1.679 | 0.141 | 8.40% | 0.04% |
| Manchester United | 2018-2019 | 90.97 | 33.61 | 57.36 | 1.679 | 2.107 | -0.428 | -20.31% | -0.22% |
| Manchester United | 2017-2018 | 218.24 | 50.05 | 168.19 | 2.107 | 1.984 | 0.123 | 6.20% | 0.03% |
| Manchester United | 2016-2017 | 203.5 | 51.98 | 151.52 | 1.984 | 1.78 | 0.204 | 11.46% | 0.06% |
| Manchester United | 2015-2016 | 171.6 | 112.28 | 59.32 | 1.78 | 1.818 | -0.038 | -2.09% | -0.01% |
| Manchester United | 2014-2015 | 214.89 | 54.19 | 160.7 | 1.818 | 1.764 | 0.054 | 3.06% | 0.01% |
| Manchester United | 2013-2014 | 84.84 | 1.98 | 82.86 | 1.764 | 2.167 | -0.403 | -18.60% | -0.22% |
| Manchester United | 2012-2013 | 84.1 | 10.62 | 73.48 | 2.167 | 2.111 | 0.056 | 2.65% | 0.03% |
| Manchester United | 2011-2012 | 68.53 | 15.17 | 53.36 | 2.111 | 2.183 | -0.072 | -3.30% | -0.05% |
| Manchester United | 2010-2011 | 32.23 | 19.05 | 13.18 | 2.183 | 2.196 | -0.013 | -0.59% | -0.02% |
| Liverpool | 2019-2020 | 11.44 | 45.76 | -34.32 | 2.316 | 2.302 | 0.014 | 0.61% | 0.05% |
| Liverpool | 2018-2019 | 200.42 | 45.45 | 154.97 | 2.302 | 1.946 | 0.356 | 18.29% | 0.09% |
| Liverpool | 2017-2018 | 191.27 | 213.95 | -22.68 | 1.946 | 1.957 | -0.011 | -0.56% | -0.00% |
| Liverpool | 2016-2017 | 87.89 | 93.92 | -6.03 | 1.957 | 1.619 | 0.338 | 20.88% | 0.24% |
| Liverpool | 2015-2016 | 139.15 | 99.61 | 39.54 | 1.619 | 1.603 | 0.016 | 1.00% | 0.01% |
| Liverpool | 2014-2015 | 166.57 | 109.2 | 57.37 | 1.603 | 2.116 | -0.513 | -24.24% | -0.15% |
| Liverpool | 2013-2014 | 63.91 | 35.75 | 28.16 | 2.116 | 1.667 | 0.449 | 26.93% | 0.42% |
| Liverpool | 2012-2013 | 77.66 | 11.5 | 66.16 | 1.667 | 1.647 | 0.02 | 1.21% | 0.02% |
| Liverpool | 2011-2012 | 71.86 | 25.19 | 46.67 | 1.647 | 1.593 | 0.054 | 3.39% | 0.05% |
| Liverpool | 2010-2011 | 107.5 | 111.65 | -4.15 | 1.593 | 1.607 | -0.014 | -0.87% | -0.01% |
| Chelsea | 2019-2020 | 45.00 | 157.27 | -112.27 | 1.745 | 2.063 | -0.318 | -15.41% | -0.34% |
| Chelsea | 2018-2019 | 208.80 | 72.25 | 136.55 | 2.063 | 1.831 | 0.232 | 12.67% | 0.06% |
| Chelsea | 2017-2018 | 260.50 | 200.60 | 59.90 | 1.831 | 2.383 | -0.552 | -23.16% | -0.09% |
| Chelsea | 2016-2017 | 132.80 | 108.90 | 23.90 | 2.383 | 1.434 | 0.949 | 66.18% | 0.50% |
| Chelsea | 2015-2016 | 96.50 | 87.49 | 9.01 | 1.434 | 2.222 | -0.788 | -35.46% | -0.37% |
| Chelsea | 2014-2015 | 137.70 | 142.81 | -5.11 | 2.222 | 2.035 | 0.187 | 9.19% | 0.07% |
| Chelsea | 2013-2014 | 130.35 | 77.93 | 52.42 | 2.035 | 1.87 | 0.165 | 8.82% | 0.07% |
| Chelsea | 2012-2013 | 109.70 | 25.45 | 84.25 | 1.87 | 1.803 | 0.067 | 3.72% | 0.03% |
| Chelsea | 2011-2012 | 96.45 | 32.40 | 64.05 | 1.803 | 1.792 | 0.011 | 0.61% | 0.01% |
| Chelsea | 2010-2011 | 121.50 | 16.50 | 105.00 | 1.792 | 2.25 | -0.458 | -20.36% | -0.17% |
| Manchester City | 2019-2020 | 183.50 | 75.90 | 107.60 | 2.186 | 2.541 | -0.355 | -13.97% | -0.08% |
| Manchester City | 2018-2019 | 86.45 | 63.36 | 23.09 | 2.541 | 2.421 | 0.12 | 4.96% | 0.06% |
| Manchester City | 2017-2018 | 349.25 | 100.49 | 248.76 | 2.421 | 2.018 | 0.403 | 19.97% | 0.06% |
| Manchester City | 2016-2017 | 236.50 | 38.89 | 197.61 | 2.018 | 1.797 | 0.221 | 12.30% | 0.05% |
| Manchester City | 2015-2016 | 229.01 | 74.18 | 154.83 | 1.797 | 1.824 | -0.027 | -1.48% | -0.01% |
| Manchester City | 2014-2015 | 113.08 | 33.58 | 79.5 | 1.824 | 2.228 | -0.404 | -18.13% | -0.16% |
| Manchester City | 2013-2014 | 127.60 | 12.43 | 115.17 | 2.228 | 1.923 | 0.305 | 15.86% | 0.12% |
| Manchester City | 2012-2013 | 68.15 | 48.73 | 19.42 | 1.923 | 2.145 | -0.222 | -10.35% | -0.15% |
| Manchester City | 2011-2012 | 100.16 | 34.32 | 65.84 | 2.145 | 1.949 | 0.196 | 10.06% | 0.10% |
| Manchester City | 2010-2011 | 201.97 | 44.17 | 157.8 | 1.949 | 1.833 | 0.116 | 6.33% | 0.03% |
| Arsenal | 2019-2020 | 176.44 | 59.02 | 117.42 | 1.704 | 1.948 | -0.244 | -12.53% | -0.07% |
| Arsenal | 2018-2019 | 88.17 | 8.69 | 79.48 | 1.948 | 1.7 | 0.248 | 14.59% | 0.17% |
| Arsenal | 2017-2018 | 168.14 | 173.80 | -5.66 | 1.7 | 2.018 | -0.318 | -15.76% | -0.09% |
| Arsenal | 2016-2017 | 124.34 | 11.39 | 112.95 | 2.018 | 1.778 | 0.24 | 13.50% | 0.11% |
| Arsenal | 2015-2016 | 29.15 | 2.75 | 26.4 | 1.778 | 2.036 | -0.258 | -12.67% | -0.43% |
| Arsenal | 2014-2015 | 130.88 | 30.58 | 100.3 | 2.036 | 2.018 | 0.018 | 0.89% | 0.01% |
| Arsenal | 2013-2014 | 54.18 | 13.37 | 40.81 | 2.018 | 1.849 | 0.169 | 9.14% | 0.17% |
| Arsenal | 2012-2013 | 61.60 | 72.44 | -10.84 | 1.849 | 1.889 | -0.04 | -2.12% | -0.03% |
| Arsenal | 2011-2012 | 72.02 | 86.12 | -14.1 | 1.889 | 1.793 | 0.096 | 5.35% | 0.07% |
| Arsenal | 2010-2011 | 25.30 | 8.91 | 16.39 | 1.793 | 1.945 | -0.152 | -7.81% | -0.31% |
| Tottenham | 2019-2020 | 163.35 | 70.95 | 92.4 | 1.519 | 2.052 | -0.533 | -25.97% | -0.16% |
| Tottenham | 2018-2019 | 0 | 5.89 | -5.89 | 2.052 | 2.018 | 0.034 | 1.68% | |
| Tottenham | 2017-2018 | 135.85 | 114.18 | 21.67 | 2.018 | 2.057 | -0.039 | -1.90% | -0.01% |
| Tottenham | 2016-2017 | 91.85 | 57.53 | 34.32 | 2.057 | 1.679 | 0.378 | 22.51% | 0.25% |
| Tottenham | 2015-2016 | 78.10 | 96.34 | -18.24 | 1.679 | 1.737 | -0.058 | -3.34% | -0.04% |
| Tottenham | 2014-2015 | 53.33 | 48.57 | 4.76 | 1.737 | 1.870 | -0.133 | -7.11% | -0.13% |
| Tottenham | 2013-2014 | 134.78 | 148.75 | -13.97 | 1.870 | 1.796 | 0.074 | 4.12% | 0.03% |
| Tottenham | 2012-2013 | 80.58 | 80.06 | 0.52 | 1.796 | 1.830 | -0.034 | -1.86% | -0.02% |
| Tottenham | 2011-2012 | 9.90 | 47.58 | -37.68 | 1.830 | 1.585 | 0.245 | 15.46% | 1.56% |
| Tottenham | 2010-2011 | 29.26 | 3.23 | 26.03 | 1.585 | 1.9 | -0.315 | -16.58% | -0.57% |
| Mean | 0.01% | ||||||||
* via https://www.transfermarkt.us/ ; figures in millions of US dollars
** via https://www.soccerbase.com/ ; all wins 3pts, all draws 1pt across all competitions; per match
*** percent mean point change per match per million dollars
| Club | 10yr Net spend ($ millions)* | 10yr Total Spend ($ millions)* | 10yr Tot Avg Pts** | 10yr Avg Pts/Net Spend*** | 10yr Avg Pts/Spend *** |
| Tottenham | 103.92 | 777 | 18.143 | 0.17459 | 0.02335 |
| Liverpool | 325.69 | 1117.67 | 18.766 | 0.05762 | 0.01679 |
| Chelsea | 417.7 | 1339.30 | 19.178 | 0.04591 | 0.01432 |
| Arsenal | 463.15 | 930.22 | 18.733 | 0.04045 | 0.02014 |
| Manchester United | 966.92 | 1405.15 | 19.413 | 0.02008 | 0.01382 |
| Manchester City | 1169.62 | 1695.67 | 21.032 | 0.01798 | 0.01240 |
* via https://www.transfermarkt.us/ ; figures in millions of US dollars
** via https://www.soccerbase.com/ ; all wins 3pts; all draws 1pt; across all competitions; per match
*** total mean points per match per million dollars
Drawbacks
- Ten years is a long time. Probably should broken the data up into 5-year increments
- Transfer spend doesn't account for inflation in football (a better methodology would be index against the % difference in the average spend across PL teams in a given year)
- Doesn't account for sporting issues (injuries, coaching changes, the strength of schedule, number of matches, etc)
- The listing of total avg points on the second table is pure laziness on my part. I took the averages of the averages, which is wrong, but scanning the raw data it won't change much
- This data is probably best analyzed using regression analysis, but that requires 10X the data and the work (which I don't have)
- Spurs 0 spend season messed up my calculations so I just left it
- Whoever is in charge of United's transfers has done an exceptionally poor job. This is not news, but they getting less than half the value of their transfer spend that 4 other clubs in the top 6. Only City is worse but they are a special case.
- Spending money helps, but it takes A LOT to actually make a difference (see Man City)
- Say what you want about Spurs lack of winning but Levy's transfer business has been fairly shrewd given their financial output
- The transfer business during Mourinho's tenure wasn't that bad (I say this as a critic of his). Ungodly amounts of money were spent but the team did better
- Manchester City spent a lot, but their value for money is a lot worse than I expected
- The emergence of Liverpool and Spurs centered around 1 or 2 outlier seasons of progression. Their trajectory wasn't as constant as it seems over the last decade.
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