Point predictions from the final games (top 4 contenders)? our final standing

[TheNewEra]

Man Utd DWWWWD ( 14 points from 6 games)
Crystal Palace vs Man Utd (A) 16th July (3 days since previous game)
FA Cup Tie - 19th July (possible resting of players)
Man Utd vs West Ham (H) 22nd July (6 days since previous game - if resting players OR 3 days if not resting players)
Leicester vs Man Utd (A) 26th July (4 days since previous game)
Current Points: 59, GD: 26

Leicester: DDLWDL (9 points from 6 games)
Leicester vs Sheffield Utd (H) 16th July (4 days since previous game)
Tottenham vs Leicester (A) 19th July (3 days since previous game)
Leicester vs Man Utd (H) 26th July (7 days since previous game)
Current Points: 59, GD: 29

Chelsea WWLWWL (12 points 6 games)
Chelsea vs Norwich (H) 14th July (3 days since previous game)
FA Cup Tie - 19th July (possible resting of players)
Liverpool vs Chelsea (A) 22nd July (8 days since previous game - if resting players OR 3 days if not resting players)
Chelsea vs Wolves (H) 26th July (4 days since previous game)
Current Points: 60, GD: 14

Wolverhampton Wanderers WWWLLW (12 Points from 6 games)
Burnley vs Wolves (A) 15th July (3 days since previous game)
Wolves vs Crystal Palace (H) 20th July (5 days since previous game)
Chelsea vs Wolves (A) 26th July (6 days since previous game)
Current Points: 55, GD: 11


What are your predictions for these games? given the rest time between each game, if United rest players or not in the FA cup? bearing in mind Leicester have 3 days extra rest before the last game of the season and they are at home.

For me its:
Man Utd final Games: DWD (5 points) - 64 Points total - GD: 29
Leicester Final Games: WDD (5 points) - 64 Points total - GD: 30
Chelsea Final Games: WLD (4 points) - 64 Points total- GD: 16
Wolves Final Games: WWD (7 points) - 62 Points total - GD: 15

All teams finish on the same points, but Chelsea to finish 5th due to goal difference, United to finish 4th.

Final Table:

Position	Club	Goal Difference	Points
3.	Leicester City	30	64
4.	Manchester United	29	64
5.	Chelsea	16	64
6.	Wolverhampton Wanderers	15	62

What are your predictions?

United in recent fixtures have drawn on the road which is why I think there'll be two draws at Palace and Leicester.

 

[Offside]

I just did the predictor and weirdly had United 3rd and Leicester 4th:

United to beat Palace
United to beat West Ham
United to lose to Leicester
= 65 points

Leicester to draw with Sheffield Utd
Leicester to draw with Tottenham
Leicester to beat United
= 64 points

Chelsea to beat Norwich
Chelsea to lose to Liverpool
Chelsea to draw with Wolves
= 64 points

Let’s hope so. Thursday nights is massive if we win and Leicester don’t we have a great chance of having the luxury of losing there and still finishing top 4.

 

[Gator Nate]

Current:
Chelsea - 60
Leicester - 59
United - 59
Wolves - 55

Chelsea v Norwich - Draw, Liverpool v Chelsea - Loss, Chelsea v Wolves - Loss; 1 pt
Leicester v Sheffield United - Loss, Spurs v Leicester - Loss, Leiceseter v United - Loss; 0 pts
Palace v United - Win, United v West Ham - Draw, Leicester v Leicester - Win - 7 pts
Burnley v Wolves - Draw, Wolves v Palace - Win, Chelsea v Wolves - Win - 7 pts

Final:
United - 66 pts
Wolves - 62 pts
Chelsea - 61 pts
Leicester - 59 pts

 

[TheNewEra]

Current:
Chelsea - 60
Leicester - 59
United - 59
Wolves - 55

Chelsea v Norwich - Draw, Liverpool v Chelsea - Loss, Chelsea v Wolves - Loss; 1 pt
Leicester v Sheffield United - Loss, Spurs v Leicester - Loss, Leiceseter v United - Loss; 0 pts
Palace v United - Win, United v West Ham - Draw, Leicester v Leicester - Win - 7 pts
Burnley v Wolves - Draw, Wolves v Palace - Win, Chelsea v Wolves - Win - 7 pts

Final:
United - 66 pts
Wolves - 62 pts
Chelsea - 61 pts
Leicester - 59 pts

I'll include Wolves in this case, I thought it would be beyond their grasp currently, but I will put them in

Edit: Wolves are now included

 

[BeforeKeanetherewasRobson]

Us 7
Leicester 5
Chelsea 5

We're 3rd.

 

[el3mel]

United 9.
Leicester 3.
Chelsea 7.

 

[Onerealunited]

Chelsea: 9points = 69point
United: 5points = 64 points
Leicester: 4 points = 63points

I believe united will be affected by fatigue give we’d play a game every three day and we saw yesterday that many of our starting eleven is already tired. We are lucky that Leicester have a vert difficult programe in front of them. I believe we will get into too four as long as Leicester do not get more than 3 points before they meet us the last round of the league

 

[Giggsy13]

Chelsea- WDD
United - WWD
Leicester - DLD
Wolves - DWD

3. United 66 pts
4. Chelsea 65 pts
5. Leicester 61 pts
6. Wolves. 60 pts

We match our point total from last year and finish 3rd. Shows how shite the league is this year.

 

[Grunge]

Chelsea: 9points = 69point
United: 5points = 64 points
Leicester: 4 points = 63points

I believe united will be affected by fatigue give we’d play a game every three day and we saw yesterday that many of our starting eleven is already tired. We are lucky that Leicester have a vert difficult programe in front of them. I believe we will get into too four as long as Leicester do not get more than 3 points before they meet us the last round of the league

The other teams are equally tired and just as stressed ... AND arguably with a tougher run-in than us. It's squeaky bum time for one and all!

 

[Grunge]

One thing we all agree on is that all teams will drop a point or more ... the number of permutations is amazing. There'll be sleepless nights over these next two weeks for a lot of us and all of the players involved. It's full-on now!

Just remember, "There's Only One United!"

"C'mon you Reds!"

 

[The Boy]

3rd
United to beat Palace 3-1
United to beat West Ham 2-0
United to draw with Leicester 2-2
Points: 66, GD: 30

4th
Chelsea beat Norwich 1-0
Chelsea to draw with Liverpool 1-1
Chelsea to draw with Wolves 1-1
Points: 65, GD: 15

5th
Leicester to draw with Sheffield Utd 1-1
Leicester to beat Tottenham 2-1
Leicester to draw with United 2-2
Points: 64, GD: 30

6th
Wolves to draw with Burnley 0-0
Wolves to beat Crystal Palace 2-0
Wolves to draw with Chelsea 1-1
Points: 60, GD: 13

 

[ruskyline]

Man Utd DWWWWD ( 14 points from 6 games)
Crystal Palace vs Man Utd (A) 16th July (3 days since previous game)
FA Cup Tie - 19th July (possible resting of players)
Man Utd vs West Ham (H) 22nd July (6 days since previous game - if resting players OR 3 days if not resting players)
Leicester vs Man Utd (A) 26th July (4 days since previous game)
Current Points: 59, GD: 26

Leicester: DDLWDL (9 points from 6 games)
Leicester vs Sheffield Utd (H) 16th July (4 days since previous game)
Tottenham vs Leicester (A) 19th July (3 days since previous game)
Leicester vs Man Utd (H) 26th July (7 days since previous game)
Current Points: 59, GD: 29

Chelsea WWLWWL (12 points 6 games)
Chelsea vs Norwich (H) 14th July (3 days since previous game)
FA Cup Tie - 19th July (possible resting of players)
Liverpool vs Chelsea (A) 22nd July (8 days since previous game - if resting players OR 3 days if not resting players)
Chelsea vs Wolves (H) 26th July (4 days since previous game)
Current Points: 60, GD: 14

Wolverhampton Wanderers WWWLLW (12 Points from 6 games)
Burnley vs Wolves (A) 15th July (3 days since previous game)
Wolves vs Crystal Palace (H) 20th July (5 days since previous game)
Chelsea vs Wolves (A) 26th July (6 days since previous game)
Current Points: 55, GD: 11


What are your predictions for these games? given the rest time between each game, if United rest players or not in the FA cup? bearing in mind Leicester have 3 days extra rest before the last game of the season and they are at home.

For me its:
Man Utd final Games: DWD (5 points) - 64 Points total - GD: 29
Leicester Final Games: WDD (5 points) - 64 Points total - GD: 30
Chelsea Final Games: WLD (4 points) - 64 Points total- GD: 16
Wolves Final Games: WWD (7 points) - 62 Points total - GD: 15

All teams finish on the same points, but Chelsea to finish 5th due to goal difference, United to finish 4th.

Final Table:

Position	Club	Goal Difference	Points
3.	Leicester City	30	64
4.	Manchester United	29	64
5.	Chelsea	16	64
6.	Wolverhampton Wanderers	15	62

What are your predictions?

United in recent fixtures have drawn on the road which is why I think there'll be two draws at Palace and Leicester.

THIS IS THE WORST CASE REALISTIC SCENARIO FOR Man Utd​

Current:
Chelsea - 63
Leicester - 59
United - 59
Wolves - 55

Liverpool v Chelsea - Draw,
Chelsea v Wolves - Win;

Leicester v Sheffield United - Win
Spurs v Leicester - Loss,
Leiceseter v United - Loss

Palace v United - Win,
United v West Ham - Draw,
Leicester v Leicester - Win-

Burnley v Wolves - Draw,
Wolves v Palace - Win,
Chelsea v Wolves - Loss

Final:
3rd Chelsea - 67 pts
4th United - 66 pts
5th Leicester - 62 pts
6h Wolves - 59 pts

 

[Bobcat]

Leicester lose to Sheffield who looked strong last game and get one day less rest than Spurs which can mean a lot at this stage. If we do the job vs Palace and WH, the last game might just be a formality

 

[ruskyline]

Leicester lose to Sheffield who looked strong last game and get one day less rest than Spurs which can mean a lot at this stage. If we do the job vs Palace and WH, the last game might just be a formality

• 2 things:
• We need to have +4GD in our next game against CP so we'll still go up if it comes down to goal different.
• I belive the cut off line this year us 64 points. We are 5 points away from UCL.

 

[Havak]

Pos	Team	GD	Pts
3.	Man Utd	30	66
4.	Wolves	15	64
5.	Chelsea	14	64
6.	Leicester	29	63

Going for Chelsea to rue that 3-0 loss to Sheffield United / not thumping Norwich by 3+ goals in their free win game.

 

[Siorac]

Leicester-Sheffield United 2-1
Palace-United 1-1

Spurs-Leicester 1-1
United-West Ham 2-0
Liverpool-Chelsea 1-1

Chelsea-Wolves 1-1
Leicester-United 2-1

3. Leicester 66
4. Chelsea 65
5. United 63

Yeah, I know, it's all a bit Mark Lawrensonesque with all the 1-1s.

 

[Web of Bissaka]

United (7pts), drew FAC but advance through penalties.

Chelsea (7pts)

Leicester (6pts)

Wolves (7pts)

 

[DevilRed]

United draw to palace
United win against West Ham
United draw to Leicester
= 64 points

leicester win against sheffield united
leicester to draw with spurs
leicester draw with United
= 64 points

chelsea have beaten norwich
chelsea draw against dippers
chelsea win against wolves
= 67 points

I think we miss out on top four based on our energy levels. It seems like deja vu of last seasons end of season run. Especially now that Luke Shaw and Brandon Williams are both injured.

 

[Keefy18]

Some of these predictions are so incredibly biased for us.

I want and do think we'll make top 4 but I think 3rd is very unlikely at this point.

I said with 5 games to go to friends that 3 wins and 2 draws would be enough for 4th place for us with Leicester dropping to 5th.

 

[Havak]

Some of these predictions are so incredibly biased for us.

I want and do think we'll make top 4 but I think 3rd is very unlikely at this point.

I said with 5 games to go to friends that 3 wins and 2 draws would be enough for 4th place for us with Leicester dropping to 5th.

The general thought by most fans is that we'll beat Palace & West Ham then draw with Leicester.

I do not think this is being biased or unrealistic by any stretch of the imagination. Just because we drew with Southampton we're supposed to believe we suddenly can't beat the worst team in the league since the restart and a garbage West Ham side that might be mathematically safe by the time we play them? We're the form team in the league. Leicester looks hopeless and Chelsea aren't showing me anything that says they'll beat Liverpool & Wolves, but fair play if these teams find that energy and quality for the remaining fixtures.

We should more than believe we can get 7 Points from the remaining fixtures and in that same vain, it's realistic to expect that Chelsea & Leicester earn less points from that from their last three (even with Chelsea already beating Norwich). Of course, it's football so anything can happen, but given how we've played in general and how the other teams around us have been, everything points to the most likely scenario being Manchester United finishing in the top four and probably even third.

 

[sewey89]

I wonder if Leicester fans have the same belief in their team that a load of you have to turn their form of 10 points in 10 games into 7-9 points in their remaining 3, without 3 of their starting back 4..

 

[Keefy18]

The general thought by most fans is that we'll beat Palace & West Ham then draw with Leicester.

I do not think this is being biased or unrealistic by any stretch of the imagination. Just because we drew with Southampton we're supposed to believe we suddenly can't beat the worst team in the league since the restart and a garbage West Ham side that might be mathematically safe by the time we play them? We're the form team in the league. Leicester looks hopeless and Chelsea aren't showing me anything that says they'll beat Liverpool & Wolves, but fair play if these teams find that energy and quality for the remaining fixtures.

We should more than believe we can get 7 Points from the remaining fixtures and in that same vain, it's realistic to expect that Chelsea & Leicester earn less points from that from their last three (even with Chelsea already beating Norwich). Of course, it's football so anything can happen, but given how we've played in general and how the other teams around us have been, everything points to the most likely scenario being Manchester United finishing in the top four and probably even third.

Trust me, I've staunchly defended Ole and our form recently and want him to get next season also. It has nothing to do with just the Southampton draw.

But the problem is, our history away to Palace is quite questionable. They always give us a tough game and then that is followed by West Ham. I'm more confident of the 3pts vs West Ham than I am Palace. Leicester away I'd be hoping for a result but depending on how the table lies by then a draw may suffice for 4th.

Chelsea play a Pool side with nothing to play for, Wolves will obviously be a tough game. They won last night so if they manage another 4pts that's 3rd for them likely.

The point I am making is, some people have us finishing 2 or 3 pts clear in 3rd like you have done. It's possible but I do believe it's quite unlikely.

If I were a betting man (I am), 4th seems more likely and I'd be happy with that and a great stepping stone to build on for next season.

 

[TheNewEra]

I wonder if Leicester fans have the same belief in their team that a load of you have to turn their form of 10 points in 10 games into 7-9 points in their remaining 3, without 3 of their starting back 4..

Leicester are at home on the final day, Sheffield United are a good team but they'll allow Leicester space and Vardy obviously is clinical if he gets chances so I wouldn't rule out 3 points.

United have also showed signs in the games since the restart although they're deadly going forward, they let teams have real spells of pressure early on which could cost United eventually, I don't think it's that Leicester will go unbeaten.

I think Martial, Rashford although brilliant this season, they still have some immaturity at times, for instance squandering chances with a 1 goal margin against Southampton, the game should have been dead and buried before they got their equaliser at 96' and those kind of things won't last long because they are becoming top top players.

I'd argue Leicesters hardest fixture is Tottenham, which isn't meant as a disservice against United or Sheffield United, it's purely to do with the play-style of Mourinho, it really doesn't favour Leicester at all.

Best case for Leicester is they will get 7 points, but I think they'll get 4. I'd be very surprised if they get less than 4 points, even with their recent form.

 

[Siorac]

But the problem is, our history away to Palace is quite questionable.

Look, I'm pessimistic as feck and I think we'll feck it up at Palace after that awful performance against Soton.

But our history away to Palace isn't really questionable at all: we won five and drew one on our last six visits there. The draw was during that run with Van Gaal when we just didn't score goals against anyone.

 

[DevilRed]

I wonder if Leicester fans have the same belief in their team that a load of you have to turn their form of 10 points in 10 games into 7-9 points in their remaining 3, without 3 of their starting back 4..

Wierder things have happened.

Maybe forced changes to their lineup might actually improve them?

I wouldn't put it past them to get a jammy win at home against sheffield and then hold out for a draw against mourinho...who isn't exactly going to be attacking them with wave after wave.

 

[Keefy18]

Look, I'm pessimistic as feck and I think we'll feck it up at Palace after that awful performance against Soton.

But our history away to Palace isn't really questionable at all: we won five and drew one on our last six visits there. The draw was during that run with Van Gaal when we just didn't score goals against anyone.

http://www.mufcinfo.com/manupag/res...nent_nationality=&Home_Away_neutral=&Manager=

We've won yes, but certainly not easy wins in most instances.

At Selhurt we've relied upon late winners in 4 of the last 5 matches.

Fellaini 78 mins
A draw
Zlatan 88 mins
Coming from 2 down to win with a Matic goal in the 91st min
Young in the 83rd min

Hardly fills you with confidence, especially when we could likely be missing both our regular left backs and fatigue setting in.

 

[TheNewEra]

Trust me, I've staunchly defended Ole and our form recently and want him to get next season also. It has nothing to do with just the Southampton draw.

But the problem is, our history away to Palace is quite questionable. They always give us a tough game and then that is followed by West Ham. I'm more confident of the 3pts vs West Ham than I am Palace. Leicester away I'd be hoping for a result but depending on how the table lies by then a draw may suffice for 4th.

Chelsea play a Pool side with nothing to play for, Wolves will obviously be a tough game. They won last night so if they manage another 4pts that's 3rd for them likely.

The point I am making is, some people have us finishing 2 or 3 pts clear in 3rd like you have done. It's possible but I do believe it's quite unlikely.

If I were a betting man (I am), 4th seems more likely and I'd be happy with that and a great stepping stone to build on for next season.

https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/53385467

Statisticians have United and Chelsea, same with betting odds.

Chelsea chances of top four (from data analysts Gracenote, A Nielsen Company): 87%

Leicester City chances of top four (from Gracenote): 33%

Manchester United chances of top four (from Gracenote): 76%

Wolves chances of top four (from Gracenote): 4%

 

[DevilRed]

Look, I'm pessimistic as feck and I think we'll feck it up at Palace after that awful performance against Soton.

But our history away to Palace isn't really questionable at all: we won five and drew one on our last six visits there. The draw was during that run with Van Gaal when we just didn't score goals against anyone.

In the last 7 years or so, we have won 11 drawn 2 and lost 1 against palace.

The 1 loss was earlier this season at OT. The two draws were last year at home and 2015 away at palace.

Make of that what you will. I actually thought our record was alot worse and i'm probably 100x more pessimistic as feck than you. I suffer from PTSD after last seasons collapse.

 

[Keefy18]

Just for clarity, at the point of 5 games remaining I predicted

Villa - W
Southampton - W
Palace - D
West Ham - W
Leicester - D

But we've dropped pts now vs Southampton and need to either beat Palace or Leicester to my mind.

 

[Keefy18]

https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/53385467

Statisticians have United and Chelsea, same with betting odds.

Chelsea chances of top four (from data analysts Gracenote, A Nielsen Company): 87%

Leicester City chances of top four (from Gracenote): 33%

Manchester United chances of top four (from Gracenote): 76%

Wolves chances of top four (from Gracenote): 4%

Reassuring

Like I said, I think we can get 4th.

Sitting 2 pts clear in 3rd seems a stretch though which was my original point.

I'd love for it to happen but realistically I think its a big ask.

 

[SteveTheRed]

I think we will lose against Leicester, but it won't matter at the point!
Chelsea lose to Liverpool and draw with Wolves.
Wolves win next 2 and draw Chelsea
Leicester drop more points, draw Sheffield and lose to Spurs. Beat us on the last day but it doesn't matter.

For me its:
Man Utd final Games: WWL (6 points) - 65 Points total - GD: 28
Chelsea Final Games: WLD (4 points) - 64 Points total- GD: 13
Leicester Final Games: DLW (4 points) - 63 Points total - GD: 29
Wolves Final Games: WWD (7 points) - 62 Points total - GD: 14


Final Table:

Position	Club	Goal Difference	Points
3.	Manchester United	28	65
4.	Chelsea	13	64
5.	Leicester City	29	63
6.	Wolverhampton Wanderers	14	62

 

[tenpoless]

United - 68 pts
Chelsea - 64 pts
Wolves - 62 pts
Leicester - 60 pts

 

[Havak]

Just for clarity, at the point of 5 games remaining I predicted

Villa - W
Southampton - W
Palace - D
West Ham - W
Leicester - D

But we've dropped pts now vs Southampton and need to either beat Palace or Leicester to my mind.

You have us getting the same points total as me then. The difference between us seems to be that you believe Chelsea gets 4 points from Liverpool/Wolves whilst I fancy that to be more like 2 realistically or even 0 or 1 (1 is the prediction I went with). Liverpool may have nothing to play for but I'll be surprised if they lose that game at Anfield. Regardless of any other matter they have won 24/25 of their last home games in the Premier League, with the latest being the 1-1 draw with Burnley. Chelsea definitely have it in them to go and draw that game, but Liverpool will want a result at Anfield on the day they lift the trophy and Chelsea will have just faced us days earlier in the FA Cup. I have them down for a draw, but I think a Liverpool win is more likely than a Chelsea win right now.

If Chelsea draws with Liverpool then beats Wolves, I think probably yes they finish third. But anything less than that? United finish 3rd. You have Man Utd finishing on 66 Points. Chelsea needs 4 to get to 67 - if they get 66 or less they do not finish above us.

I am hoping Wolves can do the same job that we have, which is win their two (on paper) easier games than Chelsea & Leicester have. As then it's a one-game shout-out with them and Chelsea. It could be the same with ourselves and Leicester, but on current form I think we could be ahead of Leicester by enough that a draw or narrow defeat still sees us qualify. I think it is important that we can amass some comprehensive victories over Palace & West Ham, if possible. This is also reasonable to expect given we have scored 19 goals since the restart (7 matches) and Palace have conceded 14 in 6, even failed to score in 4/6 of those games while West Ham have conceded 9 in 6 and have the fourth worst defence in the league. On top of these stats, Palace have lost five in a row and are rotten at the moment. I'm more worried about the West Ham game if they lose to Watford before they play us. However, Bournemouth & Aston Villa are unlikely to win their games either, so I think West Ham will be under no pressure provided they avoid defeat to Watford.

Bottom line is we should probably be favourites. If we mess it up from here, it is on us. We have the chance and momentum still.

 

[Toad]

I have:

3. Chelsea (65)
4. Man Utd (64)
5. Leicester (62)
6. Wolves (62)

With us needing to grab at least a draw on final day from Leicester.

 

[Keefy18]

You have us getting the same points total as me then. The difference between us seems to be that you believe Chelsea gets 4 points from Liverpool/Wolves whilst I fancy that to be more like 2 realistically or even 0 or 1 (1 is the prediction I went with). Liverpool may have nothing to play for but I'll be surprised if they lose that game at Anfield. Regardless of any other matter they have won 24/25 of their last home games in the Premier League, with the latest being the 1-1 draw with Burnley. Chelsea definitely have it in them to go and draw that game, but Liverpool will want a result at Anfield on the day they lift the trophy and Chelsea will have just faced us days earlier in the FA Cup. I have them down for a draw, but I think a Liverpool win is more likely than a Chelsea win right now.

If Chelsea draws with Liverpool then beats Wolves, I think probably yes they finish third. But anything less than that? United finish 3rd. You have Man Utd finishing on 66 Points. Chelsea needs 4 to get to 67 - if they get 66 or less they do not finish above us.

Apologies I do and yes that seems to be the difference.

The Chelsea / Liverpool game is very difficult to predict. Liverpool being our staunchest rivals could half ass it what with being Champions already. I think even if they half ass it though they'd likely get a draw.

Even if Chelsea aren't playing fantastic they are managing to grind out the results still and keep ahead of us, just about. If Chelsea were away to Wolves I'd have it as draw / loss.

Whatever happens this is obviously going down to the final day and will make for some great viewing!

 

[Okey]

I just can't see Leicester beating Sheffield United and Spurs; then Chelsea beating Liverpool and Wolves. It's up to us really. Win the next 2 and that last game might not even matter at all. Tomorrow is key.

 

[Shane88]

Lose to Palace.
Beat West Ham.
Draw with Leicester.

 

[Paul_Scholes18]

Lose to Palace.
Beat West Ham.
Draw with Leicester.

Is that enough? May or may not be. Depend on Leicester really if they get a win or not.

 

[choccy77]

Palace game is going to be a tough one for us and this is where I could see us drawing and still being in control.

I was worried about Southampton game and we did end up dropping 2 vital points, so now we HAVE to win at Palace, which will be extra pressure.

Hopefully Palace will play poorly like they have since the majority of the restart, but we never make life easy!