Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

[Raoul]

I'm not sure if Kasparov does anything that really helps to fight the regime.

Said harms, the famous revolutionist.

He does his fare share in making the rounds on prominent podcasts and TV shows to galvanize Western sentiment on Putin from an expat perspective. Its good to have a few of these guys on prominent western shows.

 

[Red Rash]

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What is the logic behind this? Russia is selling to third countries who are the reselling to the west? The idea being if the west caps the amount they will pay it will lower demand from the third country unless Russia drops prices?

 

[NotThatSoph]

What is the logic behind this? Russia is selling to third countries who are the reselling to the west? The idea being if the west caps the amount they will pay it will lower demand from the third country unless Russia drops prices?

According to Financial Times the mechanism is that tankers transporting oil sold for above that price won't be able to buy insurance from Western companies, so if third world countries want to buy oil for above the cap it'll either be uninsured or with insurance from someone else.

 

[frostbite]

Related to the maintenance problems I mentioned above, the guy in that article said that the M777 is like a bicycle compared to the complexity of an F-16.

And it seems that there are serious problems in the maintenance of the M777s in Ukraine...


https://eurasiantimes.com/m-777-howitzers-are-breaking-down-in-ukraine-war/

M-777s Are ‘Falling Apart’ In Ukraine War; EUCOM Sets Up Repair Facility For US, Other Western Howitzers In Poland

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/25/us/ukraine-artillery-breakdown.html

Artillery Is Breaking in Ukraine. It’s Becoming a Problem for the Pentagon.

Ukrainian soldiers are firing thousands of shells daily, forcing the U.S. to replace gun barrels across the border in Poland

 

[frostbite]

Personally, I have always felt that the most logical explanation for the baffling German behaviour in the first few months of this war, but also in the past 20 years regarding Russia... well the most logical explanation for me is that there is deep corruption in the German State, that Russian money has influenced key German politicians, either directly or indirectly. I have no proof, and other posters told me I am wrong, which is quite possible, I have been wrong in many things in the past, perhaps the underlying reason is not corruption but just "miscalculation"... but I am not sure...

Here is an interesting story:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/02/world/europe/germany-russia-nord-stream-pipeline.html

Shadowy Arm of a German State Helped Russia Finish Nord Stream 2

The threat of U.S. sanctions jeopardized completion of a second direct gas pipeline from Russia. So Gazprom and German officials concocted a phony climate foundation to get the job done.

[...]

The pipeline was a priority for Moscow and Berlin alike, with German officials from both major parties acting as eager cheerleaders.

Nowhere was that more obvious than in Mecklenburg-West Pomerania, one of Germany’s poorest states and once part of the former Communist East, where both pipelines come ashore. Older generations there grew up on Soviet culture, and still remember when America was the enemy and Moscow the protector.

Mr. Sellering and his successor as governor, Manuela Schwesig, were allies of former Chancellor Gerhard Schröder, a fellow Social Democrat, personal friend of President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia and lobbyist for Russian energy companies.

Mr. Schröder’s conservative successor, Angela Merkel, whose constituency was in Mecklenburg-West Pomerania, approved Nord Stream 2 after Russia’s 2014 invasion of Crimea, and defended it even after Moscow hacked the German Parliament, assassinated a Chechen rebel in central Berlin and poisoned the Russian dissident Alexei Navalny.

Before the war, the current chancellor, Olaf Scholz, called Nord Stream 2 a “private-sector project” and last year, when he was finance minister, he personally wrote to his U.S. counterpart to demand a stop to sanctions. (In October, Mr. Scholz claimed that he “was always sure” that Mr. Putin would “use energy supplies as a weapon.”)

[...]

 

[Red Rash]

According to Financial Times the mechanism is that tankers transporting oil sold for above that price won't be able to buy insurance from Western companies, so if third world countries want to buy oil for above the cap it'll either be uninsured or with insurance from someone else.

Ok thanks for the explanation, I guess the plan is to try and get third countries to buy at the cap too then

 

[Simbo]

Personally, I have always felt that the most logical explanation for the baffling German behaviour in the first few months of this war, but also in the past 20 years regarding Russia... well the most logical explanation for me is that there is deep corruption in the German State, that Russian money has influenced key German politicians, either directly or indirectly. I have no proof, and other posters told me I am wrong, which is quite possible, I have been wrong in many things in the past, perhaps the underlying reason is not corruption but just "miscalculation"... but I am not sure...

Here is an interesting story:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/02/world/europe/germany-russia-nord-stream-pipeline.html

Shadowy Arm of a German State Helped Russia Finish Nord Stream 2

The threat of U.S. sanctions jeopardized completion of a second direct gas pipeline from Russia. So Gazprom and German officials concocted a phony climate foundation to get the job done.

[...]

The pipeline was a priority for Moscow and Berlin alike, with German officials from both major parties acting as eager cheerleaders.

Nowhere was that more obvious than in Mecklenburg-West Pomerania, one of Germany’s poorest states and once part of the former Communist East, where both pipelines come ashore. Older generations there grew up on Soviet culture, and still remember when America was the enemy and Moscow the protector.

Mr. Sellering and his successor as governor, Manuela Schwesig, were allies of former Chancellor Gerhard Schröder, a fellow Social Democrat, personal friend of President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia and lobbyist for Russian energy companies.

Mr. Schröder’s conservative successor, Angela Merkel, whose constituency was in Mecklenburg-West Pomerania, approved Nord Stream 2 after Russia’s 2014 invasion of Crimea, and defended it even after Moscow hacked the German Parliament, assassinated a Chechen rebel in central Berlin and poisoned the Russian dissident Alexei Navalny.

Before the war, the current chancellor, Olaf Scholz, called Nord Stream 2 a “private-sector project” and last year, when he was finance minister, he personally wrote to his U.S. counterpart to demand a stop to sanctions. (In October, Mr. Scholz claimed that he “was always sure” that Mr. Putin would “use energy supplies as a weapon.”)

[...]

I've always believed (since 2014 at least when I started taking an interest) that Russian corruption and influence is vast and operates in any country of relevance. They've been moving $billions around the world for decades, any sizable money laundering story you can dig up will have a Russian involved. Then you read about all the territories around the world that seemingly exist to hide corrupt money. All the webs of shell companies and trust funds that can transfer wealth to anybody with ease, in secret.

I post some wacky theories on this forum sometimes, but its with the above in mind and the feeling I have that high level organised crime plays some governments like a fiddle, with the freedom and funds they have. Russian leadership is a Mafia, one with the power of a superpowers' intelligence services that fought the cold war. The KGB didn't diminish when the Soviet Union collapsed, they just changed their name a sucked up the entire countries wealth.

 

[the hea]

Related to the maintenance problems I mentioned above, the guy in that article said that the M777 is like a bicycle compared to the complexity of an F-16.

And it seems that there are serious problems in the maintenance of the M777s in Ukraine...


https://eurasiantimes.com/m-777-howitzers-are-breaking-down-in-ukraine-war/

M-777s Are ‘Falling Apart’ In Ukraine War; EUCOM Sets Up Repair Facility For US, Other Western Howitzers In Poland

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/25/us/ukraine-artillery-breakdown.html

Artillery Is Breaking in Ukraine. It’s Becoming a Problem for the Pentagon.

Ukrainian soldiers are firing thousands of shells daily, forcing the U.S. to replace gun barrels across the border in Poland

All types of tube artillery needs to have their tubes replaced after a certain number of charges so this should have been no surprise to anyone.

From my understanding the main problem with the 155mm artillery wear in Ukraine was that the western cannons where being overused when they first arrived in the early summer. The wear on a hot barrell is much higher then on a cold one and the Ukrainians fired way to many charges per day during the first months after they received them, this resulted in a very high wear on the tubes that is now making a lot of them unusable.

 

[frostbite]

I also believe that Putin is quite smart. So, why did he fail? How could Putin miscalculate so badly? I believe that Putin miscalculated only one thing: Biden.

I think Putin knew that the Germans would not be a factor, they would not help Ukraine. And he knew that the Germans can vastly influence the rest of the EU, so the EU would not be a factor either. Fears of "escalation", of energy dependance, of World War 3, of economy ... the 27 countries of the EU would talk and talk and talk, and do nothing. Then Britain has its problems with Brexit, and it is too weak to do anything anyway.

Putin knew that the only one who can do anything to help Ukraine is America. But America has its own problems, it is divided, Biden is old, he gave up in Afghanistan, actually Biden did not just give up but messed up badly in Afghanistan, Biden is weak, he will have no desire to get involved into another military conflict.


In summary, I believe that the German "neutrality" was the most important factor in Putin's decision to go to war. And the second most important factor was the debacle in Afghanistan. If any of these two factors were not present, we'd not have this war. And Putin's major miscalculation was that he did not expect Biden to actually support Ukraine that much.

 

[Dans]

I've always believed (since 2014 at least when I started taking an interest) that Russian corruption and influence is vast and operates in any country of relevance. They've been moving $billions around the world for decades, any sizable money laundering story you can dig up will have a Russian involved. Then you read about all the territories around the world that seemingly exist to hide corrupt money. All the webs of shell companies and trust funds that can transfer wealth to anybody with ease, in secret.

I post some wacky theories on this forum sometimes, but its with the above in mind and the feeling I have that high level organised crime plays some governments like a fiddle, with the freedom and funds they have. Russian leadership is a Mafia, one with the power of a superpowers' intelligence services that fought the cold war. The KGB didn't diminish when the Soviet Union collapsed, they just changed their name a sucked up the entire countries wealth.

Don't forget London and the conservative party in this thesis.

 

[Simbo]

Don't forget London and the conservative party in this thesis.

Oh I'm not, UK is right at the top of the world's financial secrecy rankings. Brexit was done to protect the offshore territories from the EU's inevitable anti-corruption laws (one of my wacky theories).

 

[the hea]

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[stefan92]

In October, Mr. Scholz claimed that he “was always sure” that Mr. Putin would “use energy supplies as a weapon.”

It's important to remember that Russia and Ukraine often "discussed " gas transit etc, and Ukraine stole gas intended for Germany. So Nord Stream was a solution for Germany not to be affected by those troubles. Scholz conveniently doesn't mention that he didn't expect Russia to use this weapon against the West as well.

 

[Simbo]

I also believe that Putin is quite smart. So, why did he fail? How could Putin miscalculate so badly? I believe that Putin miscalculated only one thing: Biden.

I think Putin knew that the Germans would not be a factor, they would not help Ukraine. And he knew that the Germans can vastly influence the rest of the EU, so the EU would not be a factor either. Fears of "escalation", of energy dependance, of World War 3, of economy ... the 27 countries of the EU would talk and talk and talk, and do nothing. Then Britain has its problems with Brexit, and it is too weak to do anything anyway.

Putin knew that the only one who can do anything to help Ukraine is America. But America has its own problems, it is divided, Biden is old, he gave up in Afghanistan, actually Biden did not just give up but messed up badly in Afghanistan, Biden is weak, he will have no desire to get involved into another military conflict.


In summary, I believe that the German "neutrality" was the most important factor in Putin's decision to go to war. And the second most important factor was the debacle in Afghanistan. If any of these two factors were not present, we'd not have this war. And Putin's major miscalculation was that he did not expect Biden to actually support Ukraine that much.

He needed to take Kyiv within a couple weeks, that was the plan. Biden turned up for sure, but when? Took a while for military aid to get there in any sizable amounts. Russia couldn't even take Sumy or Kharkiv right on their doorstep, what help was Biden there? US Intelligence helped I'm sure but Ukraine and Ukrainians won this war there and then by holding out. For an unprovoked war by a fascist dictator against a country just fighting for its freedom, in Europe, foreign aid was inevitable. I expect Putin knew that but taking Kyiv straight away, installing a puppet government and taking over all media, would have pretty much given him the country before the US could do anything. He may have been fighting an insurgency and what remained of western Ukraine for a decade, but he'd of got what he wanted.

I can only assume he vastly overestimated his capabilities, militarily, intelligence ops, bribes etc, and underestimated Ukraine.

 

[The United]

Conditions do seem pretty awful right now, I'm sure it's a bit of a waiting game even if they are ready. Temps right now are the worse, 4 degrees during day so overnight frost melts and everything stays damp, muddy & miserable. If they get some solid sub-zero day temps, that may bring some opportunity.

I also think that if they have any combat capability, it should be directed to the south side of Bakhmut first, which they apparently did recently. I'm just playing armchair general here. I think the UKR should take care of their north-east front line first and think about the east after those two cities there.

 

[demetre]

It's important to remember that Russia and Ukraine often "discussed " gas transit etc, and Ukraine stole gas intended for Germany. So Nord Stream was a solution for Germany not to be affected by those troubles. Scholz conveniently doesn't mention that he didn't expect Russia to use this weapon against the West as well.

Where do you get this from?

 

[frostbite]

He needed to take Kyiv within a couple weeks, that was the plan. Biden turned up for sure, but when? Took a while for military aid to get there in any sizable amounts. Russia couldn't even take Sumy or Kharkiv right on their doorstep, what help was Biden there? US Intelligence helped I'm sure but Ukraine and Ukrainians won this war there and then by holding out. For an unprovoked war by a fascist dictator against a country just fighting for its freedom, in Europe, foreign aid was inevitable. I expect Putin knew that but taking Kyiv straight away, installing a puppet government and taking over all media, would have pretty much given him the country before the US could do anything. He may have been fighting an insurgency and what remained of western Ukraine for a decade, but he'd of got what he wanted.

I can only assume he vastly overestimated his capabilities, militarily, intelligence ops, bribes etc, and underestimated Ukraine.

Biden started helping Ukraine long before the invasion. Ukraine would not be able to defend Kiev, if it wasn't for US help. Not only material help, but also intelligence help, satellites, AWACS, training, planning, the full monty.

We have no idea what it was said in discussions between USA and Russia, or USA and Ukraine, or USA and Germany. There are secret discussions all the time, we barely know the surface of what happened. But even this very little that we know, shows clearly that Biden gave full support to Ukraine. Putin underestimated Biden.

Here are some public remarks, on December 8th 2021. Yes, that is almost THREE months before the invasion!

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing...esident-biden-before-marine-one-departure-10/

THE PRESIDENT: Shh. Shh. Let me —

In the meeting with Putin, I was very straightforward. There were no minced words.

It was polite, but I made it very clear: If, in fact, he invades Ukraine, there will be severe consequences — severe consequences — and economic consequences like none he’s ever seen or ever have been seen, in terms of being imposed.

He knows. His immediate response was he understood that. And I indicated that I knew he would respond. But beyond that, if, in fact, we would probably also be required to reinforce our — our presence in NATO countries to reassure particularly those on the eastern front.

In addition to that, I made it clear that we would provide the defensive capability to the Ukrainians as well.

 

[frostbite]

If Germany, in December 2021 or earlier, told Putin in no uncertain terms that he will face severe consequences and that Germany will provide full military aid to Ukraine, then we'd probably not have a war today.

If Putin knew that Germany will support Ukraine the same way as, for example, Poland was going to support Ukraine, then Putin would probably have decided that the risk is too high. But Putin knew that Germany would do nothing. France would do nothing. The EU would do nothing. Putin was not afraid of Poland.

Putin's miscalculation was that he underestimated Biden.

 

[frostbite]

Don't forget London and the conservative party in this thesis.

Yes, but the conservatives did help Ukraine. Huge difference between Boris and Scholz. USA had to push Germany a lot before Scholz did anything.

 

[VorZakone]

If Germany, in December 2021 or earlier, told Putin in no uncertain terms that he will face severe consequences and that Germany will provide full military aid to Ukraine, then we'd probably not have a war today.

If Putin knew that Germany will support Ukraine the same way as, for example, Poland was going to support Ukraine, then Putin would probably have decided that the risk is too high. But Putin knew that Germany would do nothing. France would do nothing. The EU would do nothing. Putin was not afraid of Poland.

Putin's miscalculation was that he underestimated Biden.

CIA director said Putin had 4 assumptions:

• Weak Ukraine.
• Weak Western support.
• Sanctions-proof economy.
• Strong and modern Russian military.

 

[nimic]

If Germany, in December 2021 or earlier, told Putin in no uncertain terms that he will face severe consequences and that Germany will provide full military aid to Ukraine, then we'd probably not have a war today.

If Putin knew that Germany will support Ukraine the same way as, for example, Poland was going to support Ukraine, then Putin would probably have decided that the risk is too high. But Putin knew that Germany would do nothing. France would do nothing. The EU would do nothing. Putin was not afraid of Poland.

Putin's miscalculation was that he underestimated Biden.

The US is massively ahead on supporting Ukraine materially, obviously (having 40% the entire world's military spending), but it's just a little bit ridiculous to say that Germany, France and the EU as a whole have done nothing.

 

[frostbite]

The US is massively ahead on supporting Ukraine materially, obviously (having 40% the entire world's military spending), but it's just a little bit ridiculous to say that Germany, France and the EU as a whole have done nothing.

In December 2021?

 

[nimic]

In December 2021?

What?

 

[frostbite]

What?

The post you quoted said: If Germany, in December 2021 or earlier,

 

[frostbite]

Perhaps many people are not aware when USA started helping Ukraine.

Here is an article from 2015:

https://www.defensenews.com/home/2015/11/24/us-troops-begin-training-ukrainian-regular-forces/

US Troops Begin Training Ukrainian Regular Forces

 

[frostbite]

This war did not start in February. Russia first invaded Ukraine in 2014. They invaded Donbas, too. Back in 2014.

https://www.rferl.org/a/british-onl...russian-role-in-donbas-conflict/30116665.html

"A London-based digital forensics agency says it has gathered an enormous body of evidence that Russia’s military was deployed in the August-September 2014 fighting around Ilovaysk, in eastern Ukraine, in which Ukrainian forces were defeated by combined Russian and separatist troops."

Edit: Also see for example:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Ilovaisk

 

[AlPistacho]

it'll either be uninsured or with insurance from someone else.

Doesn’t that open up the door for Russian or Chinese insurance companies to step in? So basically opens up an industry that has traditionally been dominated by western companies.

 

[NotThatSoph]

Doesn’t that open up the door for Russian or Chinese insurance companies to step in? So basically opens up an industry that has traditionally been dominated by western companies.

I guess, at least in principle. I don't know much about this market, but apparently the International Group of Protection & Indemnity Clubs insures 95 % of all oil tankers (and 90 % of all sea tonnage). It's a group of London based companies.

 

[nimic]

The post you quoted said: If Germany, in December 2021 or earlier,

Yes, but you then went on to say that Putin knew they would do nothing. Your post ends with pointing out that he miscalculated the US, so I have to assume you're talking about US aid (and the others "doing nothing") after the invasion.

 

[the hea]

Ukraine would not be able to defend Kiev, if it wasn't for US help.

Ukraine had recieved some AN/TPQ-36 counter battery radars from the US but besides those, western weapons played a very small role in the early stages of the war, it was mainly 152mm and 122mm tube artillery and 122mm rocket artillery that was used to repel the Russian attacks during the first weeks of the war.

https://rusi.org/explore-our-resear...g-russias-invasion-ukraine-february-july-2022

Despite the prominence of anti-tank guided weapons in the public narrative, Ukraine blunted Russia’s attempt to seize Kyiv using massed fires from two artillery brigades. The difference in numbers between Russian and Ukrainian artillery was not as significant at the beginning of the conflict, with just over a 2:1 advantage: 2,433 barrel artillery systems against 1,176; and 3,547 multiple-launch rocket systems against 1,680. Ukraine maintained artillery parity for the first month and a half and then began to run low on munitions so that, by June, the AFRF had a 10:1 advantage in volume of fire. Evidently, no country in NATO, other than the US, has sufficient initial weapons stocks for warfighting or the industrial capacity to sustain largescale operations.

 

[frostbite]

Yes, but you then went on to say that Putin knew they would do nothing. Your post ends with pointing out that he miscalculated the US, so I have to assume you're talking about US aid (and the others "doing nothing") after the invasion.

No, that's not what I was saying.

 

[nimic]

No, that's not what I was saying.

Okay, then. That could have been clearer, at least to me.

 

[VorZakone]

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[VorZakone]

Ukrainian KIA...

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[frostbite]

Ukraine had recieved some AN/TPQ-36 counter battery radars from the US but besides those, western weapons played a very small role in the early stages of the war, it was mainly 152mm and 122mm tube artillery and 122mm rocket artillery that was used to repel the Russian attacks during the first weeks of the war.

https://rusi.org/explore-our-resear...g-russias-invasion-ukraine-february-july-2022

You forgot the javelins. But it is not just weapons. It is organization. It is logistics. It is intelligence. It is real-time information. It helps a lot if you know what is coming against you and where exactly they are located and what their capabilities are.

Ukraine in 2014 had a soviet era army. With a lot of corruption. Corruption in an army means that in your books you have two sets of tires for each vehicle, and in reality most of the tires and half of the vehicles have been sold in the black market.

Now we laugh at the Russian army. But in the 2014, the Ukrainian army was actually worse!

And Russia sent their elite First Guards Tank Army against Kiev. And they failed.

How?

How did the Ukrainians transform their army from a joke imitation of the Russian army to a modern force in 8 years?

 

[VorZakone]

Russian state TV at it again.

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[the hea]

You forgot the javelins.

The first sentence in my quote from the RUSI report: "Despite the prominence of anti-tank guided weapons in the public narrative, Ukraine blunted Russia’s attempt to seize Kyiv using massed fires from two artillery brigades."

It is organization. It is logistics. It is intelligence. It is real-time information. It helps a lot if you know what is coming against you and where exactly they are located and what their capabilities are.

I know very well that Ukraine started to reform their army in 2014 to a more westernized doctrine and they had help from western countries to do so but to say that the only reason they where able to defend Kyiv was because of US help is in my eyes an insult on Ukraine, when the fact is it was done almost exclusively with domestic equipment, manpower and ammunition. It was not until late spring/early summer when heavy weapons and ammunition started to arrive in Ukraine and make up for all the domestic equipment that had run out of ammunition that western weapons started to make a real difference.

And Russia sent their elite First Guards Tank Army against Kiev. And they failed.
How?

I already answered this but here you go again: " Despite the prominence of anti-tank guided weapons in the public narrative, Ukraine blunted Russia’s attempt to seize Kyiv using massed fires from two artillery brigades. The difference in numbers between Russian and Ukrainian artillery was not as significant at the beginning of the conflict, with just over a 2:1 advantage: 2,433 barrel artillery systems against 1,176; and 3,547 multiple-launch rocket systems against 1,680. Ukraine maintained artillery parity for the first month and a half and then began to run low on munitions so that, by June, the AFRF had a 10:1 advantage in volume of fire. "

 

[Simbo]

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[The United]

Ukrainian KIA...

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Mark Milley, the US's top general, stated a few weeks ago that more than 100,000 Russian soldiers were killed or injured, and probably the same with URK forces as well.

 

[Raoul]

Mark Milley, the US's top general, stated a few weeks ago that more than 100,000 Russian soldiers were killed or injured, and probably the same with URK forces as well.

I doubt that many Ukrainians have died. For one, they're not using the WW2 tactic of throwing their bodies into the meat grinder as the Russians are. They are fighting more of a strategic insurgency that minimizes loss of their own troops as well as civilians.