Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

[RedDevilQuebecois]

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I swear that Western pilots should perhaps give Tu-95s the same "courtesy" on the next time those planes get near forbidden airspaces. That Russian pilot alone flies that jet as if he found his credentials in a box of Cracker Jacks.

Good idea to release the footage as it will humiliate the Russians a bit after they initially denied the US story of what happened.

This will only further legitimize the need to arm the Ukrainians with increasingly sophisticated weapons.

Indeed. Anyone pedalling talking points from the Kremlin now and after watching this should be outright called out as a total idiot.

 

[VorZakone]

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[VorZakone]

Some quotes from ex-cons who joined Wagner.

He cited limited prospects available in Russia’s civilian economy as pushing him towards returning to Wagner.

“People work hard without days off for 12-14 hours a day, and at best they earn 50-60,000 roubles ($672-$806) a month,” said Yermakov, who told Reuters he has two small daughters. “I will return to the (Wagner) company and I will definitely be able to earn 150,000 roubles ($2,000) a month.”
For others, a return to Wagner offers an alternative to sinking back into a life of crime. Kuzhelev, who has spent almost seven of his 29 years in prison, told Reuters that he hoped that service in Wagner would enable his young daughter to build a career in future, without the stigma of her father’s criminal past.

“My daughter, when she grows up, can go on to study banking, or attend the police academy,” said Kuzhelev. “And she will not have problems because her father was in prison. Isn't that motivation? Of course it is.”

https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/ukraine-crisis-russia-wagner/

 

[pablo__p]

Some quotes from ex-cons who joined Wagner.


https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/ukraine-crisis-russia-wagner/

"without the stigma of her father’s criminal past."

Tells you everything, doesn't it.

 

[RedDevilQuebecois]

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Did the CCP think they would not be found out?

Now that it is in the open, I say it's time for the US to arm China's democratic neighbors (Japan, South Korea, Taiwan) with top quality hardware, especially with more Tomahawk missiles and even F-35s.

 

[pierrethesnack]

Because the West was afraid that Putin will perceive this as an escalation.

Which I always thought it's completely illogical. For two main reasons:
1. Putin does not need any "reasons" to escalate if he wants to. He has been lying since day one, all his "reasons" for starting this war were lies, and he can manufacture many more. Putin is KGB, and for the KGB lies were an essential tool.
2. It is Putin who should be scared that the West will escalate, not the other way around!

On the other hand, Putin knew that our leaders are cowards, and that's one of the main reasons he started this war. He knew the West are complacent and they would seek "peace" no matter what he has done, no matter how many he has killed. If he believed that our leaders are not cowards, he would have never started this war.


Anyway, it is great that NATO finally decided that giving military jets to Ukraine is not an escalation! I hope they will soon decide to give them F-16s, too.

The West is not one political body. You are simplifying the many events and the context which led to all this. In each situation there is tug of interests. The Brits and the French wanted to intervene in Syria, but then Obama pulled out. At other stages it was the Americans taking a harder line while the French wanting to pursue more diplomacy. Italy didn't want to do anything, and Poland wants to premeditatively nuke Moscow. There were many points leading to the invasion where we could have done differently to change Putins calculation, but putting it down to 'our leaders are cowards' is not very precise at all.

A group of liberal democracies working together is never going to be streamlined and efficient. The few times we actually manage to act quickly, you can get outcomes ranging from Yugoslavia to Libya, and Iraq. No politician in a liberal democracy today has a mandate to rush into a dangerous conflict which isn't a direct threat to its existence without exhausting all, and I mean all, other options. And that's a good thing.

 

[VorZakone]

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[RedDevilQuebecois]

Another educational video posted by Mark Felton today. Scavenging spare parts from museums is done everywhere.

 

[Ragnar123]

One year ago one of the biggest crimes in this war happened. I can't imagine how many war crimes russia managed to cover up in Mariupol alone. The world must never forget this.

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[Spark]

Did the CCP think they would not be found out?

Now that it is in the open, I say it's time for the US to arm China's democratic neighbors (Japan, South Korea, Taiwan) with top quality hardware, especially with more Tomahawk missiles and even F-35s.

They already have, Japan and South Korea (and Singapore) purchased the F-35.

I’m sure the American’s and everyone else expected the Chinese to back the Russians in some regard. The fact it’s still so clandestine and shit is a massive victory for the West.

 

[Simbo]

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[dove]

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Really hope we will finally see Ukraine get fighter jets after a year of rumours.

 

[Ragnar123]

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Every action against the west is now a heroic act over there. Stalin would be proud.

 

[Dans]

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Every action against the west is now a heroic act over there. Stalin would be proud.

Just a big North Korea.

 

[NicolaSacco]

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Really hope we will finally see Ukraine get fighter jets after a year of rumours.

I want this too, but I’m genuinely unsure how much effect they will have. Ukraine has nothing approaching air superiority, so they won’t be sitting there destroying Russian armour with gay abandon.

 

[Buster15]

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Really hope we will finally see Ukraine get fighter jets after a year of rumours.

So do I.
The only real advantage of the Mig 29 is that Ukrainian pilots would already know how to fly the jet, assuming the weapons systems are the same. They are mainly air to air aircraft with not that much air to ground capability.
But as I expected, the initial no by the US is in the process of changing.

 

[Simbo]

I want this too, but I’m genuinely unsure how much effect they will have. Ukraine has nothing approaching air superiority, so they won’t be sitting there destroying Russian armour with gay abandon.

Air superiority is not likely to ever be on the cards, but the air force still appears to be fairly active and used from a stand-off role, along with taking down missiles/drones. They've been able to employ these JDAM guided bombs, which need to be dropped from high altitude within around 70km.

 

[Rajma]

So do I.
The only real advantage of the Mig 29 is that Ukrainian pilots would already know how to fly the jet, assuming the weapons systems are the same. They are mainly air to air aircraft with not that much air to ground capability.
But as I expected, the initial no by the US is in the process of changing.

Winston Churchill once famously observed that Americans will always do the right thing, only after they have tried everything else

 

[NicolaSacco]

Air superiority is not likely to ever be on the cards, but the air force still appears to be fairly active and used from a stand-off role, along with taking down missiles/drones. They've been able to employ these JDAM guided bombs, which need to be dropped from high altitude within around 70km.

I hope you’re right.

 

[Ragnar123]

A short summary

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[Berbaclass]

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[Ragnar123]

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This is big. A clear sign to the world and russian elites of what awaits them in the end of their imperialism.

 

[Morty_]

So, Erdogan will ratify Finland into NATO, Hungary say they will ratify also.

For some reason i trust Orban even less than Erdogan, hope he doesn't find a last-minute excuse to delay.

 

[Stanley Road]

This is big. A clear sign to the world and russian elites of what awaits them in the end of their imperialism.

Nothing will happen

 

[RedDevilQuebecois]

Nothing will happen

Really? Serbia had to sell Milosevic and a bunch of war criminals out in order to regain some form of diplomatic and economic normality after the Kosovo War. If Russia wants normality back and purge Putinism at some point, a number of people will be sold in exchange of a return to full normality.

 

[Morty_]

Really? Serbia had to sell Milosevic and a bunch of war criminals out in order to regain some form of diplomatic and economic normality after the Kosovo War. If Russia wants normality back and purge Putinism at some point, a number of people will be sold in exchange of a return to full normality.

Russia wants to be a superpower again, they want be an empire again, can't have normality when thats not even what Russia wants.

 

[Ragnar123]

Nothing will happen

Just because no one will arrest Putin doesn't mean nothing will happen. On the contrary, it's a big problem for Russia.

First of all, it's a big symbolic step to isolate Russia even further from the free and democratic world. If some people still had illusions the west will tire of this war at some point (and Russia's only hope is betting on exactly this) and relations will get slowly better again like after 2014 because we need their cheap energy, this arrest warrant says otherwise. You can't have good relations with a wanted war criminal, no matter how much time passes. That further isolation will also tank their economy even harder.

Secondly, from now on he needs an assurance of immunity every time he wants to travel abroad. For somebody who thinks he's a tsar, this is a humiliation to ask and confirm every country he plans to visit to give him immunity.
His humiliation is also a humiliation of the russian narrative of the mighty russian empire that the west fear. Putin's arrest warrant showed them, that we see him just as a common criminal and won't forgive any of his war crimes in the past, present or future. Their propagandists will ridicule it of course, but in reality they should be fuming that their leader is on the same level now as bin Laden or Milosevic for example.

And last but not least, his elite and propagandists understand now that even if Putin himself get's an arrest warrant, none of them is save from international justice and they don't have Putins protection and immunity.

And there are probably even way more consequences.

 

[VorZakone]

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[The United]

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I pretty much quoted the same thing awhile ago from some news when arguing that the UKR armed forces were far from being decently trained (compared to some of the modern forces) at that moment. We had a few people here saying how they were much further ahead of the likes of RA forces in terms of training and weapons, both of which were not exactly true for most of the war. Some people had far too high expectations of them due to their success in last year's fall counterattacks, where the massive incompetence of the RA forces contributed more than anything else.

There is a silver lining, though, because at least we know the URK forces will have a lot more room to improve in the near future. Imagine if they were decently trained and equipped, yet ended in the current situation for the last few months. It would look far more gloomy for UA.

 

[pierrethesnack]

Just because no one will arrest Putin doesn't mean nothing will happen. On the contrary, it's a big problem for Russia.

First of all, it's a big symbolic step to isolate Russia even further from the free and democratic world. If some people still had illusions the west will tire of this war at some point (and Russia's only hope is betting on exactly this) and relations will get slowly better again like after 2014 because we need their cheap energy, this arrest warrant says otherwise. You can't have good relations with a wanted war criminal, no matter how much time passes. That further isolation will also tank their economy even harder.

Secondly, from now on he needs an assurance of immunity every time he wants to travel abroad. For somebody who thinks he's a tsar, this is a humiliation to ask and confirm every country he plans to visit to give him immunity.
His humiliation is also a humiliation of the russian narrative of the mighty russian empire that the west fear. Putin's arrest warrant showed them, that we see him just as a common criminal and won't forgive any of his war crimes in the past, present or future. Their propagandists will ridicule it of course, but in reality they should be fuming that their leader is on the same level now as bin Laden or Milosevic for example.

And last but not least, his elite and propagandists understand now that even if Putin himself get's an arrest warrant, none of them is save from international justice and they don't have Putins protection and immunity.

And there are probably even way more consequences.

Russia wants to be a superpower again, they want be an empire again, can't have normality when thats not even what Russia wants.

What Morty says is true. If there's one thing we know about Putin it's that he's calculating. He is very well aware that the die is cast, and that there can be no normality. He is gambling everything on Russias pivot to the east being successful.

 

[Stanley Road]

Just because no one will arrest Putin doesn't mean nothing will happen. On the contrary, it's a big problem for Russia.

First of all, it's a big symbolic step to isolate Russia even further from the free and democratic world. If some people still had illusions the west will tire of this war at some point (and Russia's only hope is betting on exactly this) and relations will get slowly better again like after 2014 because we need their cheap energy, this arrest warrant says otherwise. You can't have good relations with a wanted war criminal, no matter how much time passes. That further isolation will also tank their economy even harder.

Secondly, from now on he needs an assurance of immunity every time he wants to travel abroad. For somebody who thinks he's a tsar, this is a humiliation to ask and confirm every country he plans to visit to give him immunity.
His humiliation is also a humiliation of the russian narrative of the mighty russian empire that the west fear. Putin's arrest warrant showed them, that we see him just as a common criminal and won't forgive any of his war crimes in the past, present or future. Their propagandists will ridicule it of course, but in reality they should be fuming that their leader is on the same level now as bin Laden or Milosevic for example.

And last but not least, his elite and propagandists understand now that even if Putin himself get's an arrest warrant, none of them is save from international justice and they don't have Putins protection and immunity.

And there are probably even way more consequences.

Ok let's watch this space. Nothing will happen.

 

[Raoul]

One year ago one of the biggest crimes in this war happened. I can't imagine how many war crimes russia managed to cover up in Mariupol alone. The world must never forget this.

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I'm sure it will be near the top of the list, which will include among many other things, the kidnapping of thousands of Ukrainian kids for placement into "Summer Camps" in Russia. All of this will ultimately be used in a solid genocide case against Putin and his goons.

 

[calodo2003]

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[VorZakone]

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[Ragnar123]

Greatly underappreciated in my opinion. After Ukraine the most logical aggression would be towards Moldova, because Putin can apply the same logic there to "protect" their people in Transnistria. The whole west needs to understand that we're not only helping Ukraine by sending weapons and money, but also protect all of eastern europe from further russian aggression.
The west must increase its support.

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[stefan92]

Greatly underappreciated in my opinion. After Ukraine the most logical aggression would be towards Moldova, because Putin can apply the same logic there to "protect" their people in Transnistria. The whole west needs to understand that we're not only helping Ukraine by sending weapons and money, but also protect all of eastern europe from further russian aggression.
The west must increase its support.

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Also to Moldova, to stabilize it. And that is happening as well, for example some months ago Germany delivered some swiss-made Piranha APC to Moldova because it wasn’t possible to get an export permit to send them to Ukraine.

 

[Raoul]

Greatly underappreciated in my opinion. After Ukraine the most logical aggression would be towards Moldova, because Putin can apply the same logic there to "protect" their people in Transnistria. The whole west needs to understand that we're not only helping Ukraine by sending weapons and money, but also protect all of eastern europe from further russian aggression.
The west must increase its support.

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Pretty sure bet that had Putin managed to take all of southern Ukraine, he would've moonwalked right into Moldova, which would've been made even easier by his existing goons in Transnistria.

 

[Carolina Red]

Some quotes from ex-cons who joined Wagner.


https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/ukraine-crisis-russia-wagner/

I wonder if they’ve gone into fertilizer manufacturing in Ukraine yet.

 

[Jam]

Pretty sure bet that had Putin managed to take all of southern Ukraine, he would've moonwalked right into Moldova, which would've been made even easier by his existing goons in Transnistria.

Not with the ongoing conflict with Ukraine; they’re shitting the bed massively there, no chance they would be remotely capable to handle advancements into Moldova and Ukraine all the while holding southern Ukraine.

I’m fully on board with the Moldova was next theory, but that was part of the initial Ukraine will be a cake walk plan. Ukraine holding out, and the prolonged support has scuppered Moldova for now at least thankfully.

 

[Raoul]

Not with the ongoing conflict with Ukraine; they’re shitting the bed massively there, no chance they would be remotely capable to handle advancements into Moldova and Ukraine all the while holding southern Ukraine.

I’m fully on board with the Moldova was next theory, but that was part of the initial Ukraine will be a cake walk plan. Ukraine holding out, and the prolonged support has scuppered Moldova for now at least thankfully.

That’s what I was referring to. Had he initially taken the south, he would’ve walked into Moldova.