Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Morty_

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Why would NATO simultaneously weaken itself, hand Russia a valuable ally and give them a talking point in order to gain more allies?
Weakens itself how? Hungary barely contributes to Ukraine as it is, not just in total, but adjusted for GDP they are below even non-NATO countries.
Then you have things like Orban being a Putin-fanboy and Hungary, a NATO country, saying outright they wouldn't arrest Putin if he visits them.

They are not actually an ally.
 

Krakenzero

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Weakens itself how? Hungary barely contributes to Ukraine as it is, not just in total, but adjusted for GDP they are below even non-NATO countries.
Then you have things like Orban being a Putin-fanboy and Hungary, a NATO country, saying outright they wouldn't arrest Putin if he visits them.

They are not actually an ally.
International alliances power is measured by number and size of its members. Losing them makes them actually less effective/impactful. That's why for example the UE didn't get stronger after Brexit.

If NATO had only 8-10 members it may be better coordinated to operate, but it would also be less impactful and perceived as weaker/less attractive to join.
 

Morty_

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International alliances power is measured by number and size of its members. Losing them makes them actually less effective/impactful. That's why for example the UE didn't get stronger after Brexit.

If NATO had only 8-10 members it may be better coordinated to operate, but it would also be less impactful and perceived as weaker/less attractive to join.
You don't need to exaggerate, i'm not advocating for anything like that, as the vast majority of them brings something to the table, unlike Hungary, which is just a parasite on this alliance at this point.
 

4bars

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You don't need to exaggerate, i'm not advocating for anything like that, as the vast majority of them brings something to the table, unlike Hungary, which is just a parasite on this alliance at this point.
Precisely because hungary is in Nato, orban is under control. You kick them now and you might create rapidly a bielorusian like country in the heart of europe puting at risk and thinning resources of the neighbouring countries. Meaning less tanks, no slovakian migs to ukraine and many less arms as they would keep it just in case

Ukraine would have their western border under thread, etc...

Keep your friends close, but your enemies closer fits perfectly the relationship with orban
 

Raoul

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Precisely because hungary is in Nato, orban is under control. You kick them now and you might create rapidly a bielorusian like country in the heart of europe puting at risk and thinning resources of the neighbouring countries. Meaning less tanks, no slovakian migs to ukraine and many less arms as they would keep it just in case

Ukraine would have their western border under thread, etc...

Keep your friends close, but your enemies closer fits perfectly the relationship with orban
Plus, Orban could be in trouble if Putin goes down since he wouldn’t have any authoritarian support.
 

4bars

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Plus, Orban could be in trouble if Putin goes down since he wouldn’t have any authoritarian support.
I think he gets on well well enough with poland and also, with the growing global political clima. Orban is playing with 2 decks and is working for him
 

Ragnar123

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How do they anchor their left flank if they have to withdraw several Km from the Dniporo?
With their own artillery of course. Ukraine showed last summer how a river crossing works if the enemy knows when and where you cross. Russia lost over a hundred armor vehicles if I remember correctly in a couple of hours in that failed crossing. Drones and reconnaissance gives you a clear picture around the clock. They only wait for Ukraine to cross so they can pound them to dust. Also Ukraine would have the same problem Russia had when they were still in Kherson. Supplies. All bridges are destroyed and pontoon bridges are easily spotted by drones.
The crossing is far more difficult than people think even without an enemy in eyesight. If the crossing happens in the future, it should be strong enough to break through those defensive lines a couple of km away. Otherwise they'd be just sitting ducks on the left bank.
 
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stevoc

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There are no details that I can gather, but I believe it could be anything ranging from flashbang grenades and body armor to anti-drone hardware or mobile radar. In any case, the largest chunk of Japan's aid is the new envelope worth $470 million as non-repayable aid for power generation and other sectors.
Could be troop transport, air defence missiles, body armour etc.
Fair enough I'd thought most of that stuff was usually described as military hardware, protective gear etc. as opposed to weapons.
 

Eendracht maakt macht

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I know NATO is supposed to have an united front against Russia, so this is not exactly in the spirit of unity, but like, is it possible to kick Hungary out somehow?

We would almost be doing them a favor, "set them free", so to speak, as they clearly don't value this alliance much anyway.
If they really want to ally with Russia, i say let them.
Better to have them inside the tent pissing out, than outside the tent pissing in.
 

Ragnar123

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I really hope we see them one day all in The Hague....disgusting war criminals. There are still thousands of children abducted.
 

Raoul

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I really hope we see them one day all in The Hague....disgusting war criminals. There are still thousands of children abducted.
Pretty grim stuff. Imagine being the parent of one of these kids and having to wonder if they would ever be reunited.
 

RedDevilQuebecois

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So sad on so many levels. Very unfortunate and grotesque that a country still sings BS about the "glory of war" in 2023 when a British poet once titled a poem "Dulce et decorum est pro patria mori" (It is sweet and fitting to die for one's country) as an irony to decry the great lie about war over a century ago.
 

Maagge

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So sad on so many levels. Very unfortunate and grotesque that a country still sings BS about the "glory of war" in 2023 when a British poet once titled a poem "Dulce et decorum est pro patria mori" (It is sweet and fitting to die for one's country) as an irony to decry the great lie about war over a century ago.
That one made quite an impression on me back in English class in high school. Wilfred Owen, right?
 

Simbo

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So sad on so many levels. Very unfortunate and grotesque that a country still sings BS about the "glory of war" in 2023 when a British poet once titled a poem "Dulce et decorum est pro patria mori" (It is sweet and fitting to die for one's country) as an irony to decry the great lie about war over a century ago.
Apparently this bullshit provokes fear and envy with some idiots in the west. As usual, Beau has a good take on it.
 

Morty_

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Once this invasion is over, will Russia be able to launch any major offensives for like several decades?

They've lost a lof men, but they always have unfortunate people to be thrown into the grinder, but the amount of losses in terms tanks, armored vehicles, aircrafts and so on is actually insane, and it won't be easily replaced anytime soon.
 

Ragnar123

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It looks like Russia ran out of steam again around Bakhmut. They couldn't gain anything worth mentioning in the last days, while losing around 1000 men and a double digit of tanks and acvs daily, but on the contrary the situation seems to stabilize for Ukraine a bit. Seems like Russia/Wagner ran out of prisoners to throw into the meat grinder. The same in Avdiivka.
It would be crazy if Ukraine counter attacks in Bakhmut. But on the second thought, if they surprise Russia, they can break through there. I'd imagine Russia's defensive lines in and around Bakhmut are the weakest ones, because they constantly push forward there while in other regions the front stands still for months.

 

Rajma

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Hugely advertised Russian offensive have failed on every level from strategic to barely any tactical gains. After burning through all the freshly mobilized meat, the momentum has been lost. Preparations are starting over the upcoming Ukrainian offensive:
People in Kremlin know how unpopular another round of mobilization would be, they’re especially fearful in the light of upcoming predetermined Putin’s reelection that should happen in 2024 when he will officially become a dictator in the eyes of everyone. For them image of their tsar in the eyes of peasants is everything.
 
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Ragnar123

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I think Putin thinks we give a shit.
He just makes sure Belarus will never turn away from him.
Those nukes give him the necessary excuse to station thousands of soldiers inside that country. So in the unlikely event that Lukashenko might be overthrown, he could react fast and hard. It's also a message to Belarus people "we will never let you choose. You belong to us".
 

stefan92

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He just makes sure Belarus will never turn away from him.
Those nukes give him the necessary excuse to station thousands of soldiers inside that country. So in the unlikely event that Lukashenko might be overthrown, he could react fast and hard. It's also a message to Belarus people "we will never let you choose. You belong to us".
It's a dangerous play. Belarus so far acted quite smart to not be directly involved in the war. It's a thin line Lukashenko walks and it might fail at some point, but so far I don't get the impression that Russia can truly control Belarus, despite them trying very hard to. I'm not sure nukes will get this result either.
 

the hea

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That was one of the most morbidly fascinating things I have ever seen.
I'm not sure what to feel when seeing videos like this one. On one hand I'm happy that the Ukrainians are fighting such a incompetent force but on the other hand I also feel sorry for those Russians because those are not soldiers, they lack even the most basic of training for an infantry soldier.
Attacking in the open when there is decent cover just meters away and no coordination in the attack, everyone just seems to be doing their own thing. Not even when the indirect fire starts comming in they seem to understand that they need to get in cover.