Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

VorZakone

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Sad article on Russian convicts.

“I really wish to be there, knowing that this is likely to be a journey without return,” Mr. Mokin, then 35 and serving an 11-year sentence, told a friend in a text message that was viewed by The New York Times.

Two months later, Mr. Mokin was dead. A social media post showing his grave is the only known public tribute to his short life.
“When civilians are mobilized, they are ripped from their families, their jobs,” Aleksandr, one of the surviving recruits from the prison, known as IK6, said in an interview. “As for us, we’ve got nothing to lose.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/04/world/europe/russia-prison-wagner-ukraine.html
 

ExoduS

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https://thehill.com/homenews/senate...ne-funding-tempers-flare-classified-briefing/

If Ukraine aid can't even pass the senate, there is zero chance they will get anything through the house.

Ukraine will get next to nothing from the US in the coming year, thats my prediction.
Maybe Mearsheimer had a point when he said in 2014 that Ukraine isn’t American critical strategic interest. Israel has a right to defend itself so priorities need to be managed carefully.
 

Offsideagain

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Ukraine has disappeared off the UK TV media in favour of the Israeli Palestinian conflict. Putin, who has been charged with War Crimes, is in the UAE where he's been given the red carpet treatment. That will piss off the Yanks and may help the Bill on Ukraine Aid to pass. Issue is the money. Their national debt is approaching $34 trillion. That's money owed to Bond holders and other types of securities. They could just issue more bonds to raise the money but that isn't the issue. More and more governments at looking inward to support their own people(except the UK who support anyone that tips up on the Kent coast) and it's a political argument rather than a fiscal one I believe. If the USA stop supporting Ukraine, well they are in deep trouble. Puitin must be laughing his socks off.
 

VorZakone

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Ukrainians cleaning up traitors it seems.

Ukraine's SBU killed fugitive Ukrainian lawmaker in Russia - source

KYIV, Dec 6 (Reuters) - A former Ukrainian lawmaker regarded by Kyiv as a traitor was shot dead near Moscow on Wednesday and a Ukrainian source said he was killed by the country's security service.

Illia Kyva was a pro-Russian member of Ukraine's parliament before Moscow invaded in February 2022, but had been in Russia throughout the war and frequently criticised Ukrainian authorities online.

Russian investigators said Kyva died on the spot after being shot in a park in Odintsovo region, southwest of Moscow, and they had opened a murder hunt.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...-ukrainian-lawmaker-russia-source-2023-12-06/
 

Beans

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Anyone hear where we are with new ammo production by European countries?

Obviously the US supplies are the main topic but I haven’t heard much about progress with attempts to expand European military production.
 

4bars

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Anyone hear where we are with new ammo production by European countries?

Obviously the US supplies are the main topic but I haven’t heard much about progress with attempts to expand European military production.
Terrible as far as i read. For example europe pledge 1 million artillery shells in 1 year and they will not get close
 

4bars

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Yeah that's the one I'm most interested in.
Meanwhile seems that North korea sent 1 million shells (and more to come) and Russia is capable to manufacture 2 million shells a year before the 2024 increased budget to kick in
 

Morty_

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Republicans doing what they are paid to do, Ukraine aid was never going to pass.
 

calodo2003

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Very graphic, but shows the reality on the ground. An apparent HIMARS attack with over 180K tungsten balls...

 

Morty_

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Hopefully, Europe can keep Ukraine afloat for the coming year, and then we hope dems get a trifecta again in next years election.

Sounds like the best case scenario, going forward.
 

TwoSheds

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Hopefully, Europe can keep Ukraine afloat for the coming year, and then we hope dems get a trifecta again in next years election.

Sounds like the best case scenario, going forward.
Surely there'll be further talks on Ukraine aid won't there?
 

harms

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Republicans doing what they are paid to do, Ukraine aid was never going to pass.
From what I've read they're using it to negotiate for their own anti-immigration bill? I've seen opinions that it's not as bad as it sounds as the Ukrainian aid is going to pass eventually (after Republicans get what they need internally). Although any delay isn't welcome, of course.
 

Simbo

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From what I've read they're using it to negotiate for their own anti-immigration bill? I've seen opinions that it's not as bad as it sounds as the Ukrainian aid is going to pass eventually (after Republicans get what they need internally). Although any delay isn't welcome, of course.
That's my take on it as well. Short of Trump getting in and leaving NATO, there really isn't much choice in aiding Ukraine.
 

Raoul

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From what I've read they're using it to negotiate for their own anti-immigration bill? I've seen opinions that it's not as bad as it sounds as the Ukrainian aid is going to pass eventually (after Republicans get what they need internally). Although any delay isn't welcome, of course.
Yes, that’s precisely what is happening. Ukraine aid is being deliberately combined with Israel aid, so barring something extraordinary, it is likely to eventually pass. Biden has intentionally included a very large sum for Ukraine.
 

Simbo

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Yes, that’s precisely what is happening. Ukraine aid is being deliberately combined with Israel aid, so barring something extraordinary, it is likely to eventually pass. Biden has intentionally included a very large sum for Ukraine.
Putin will be doing everything possible to cultivate wars around the world, its so very beneficial for him. He really is the most dangerous man alive.
 

Mihai

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Ukraine has disappeared off the UK TV media in favour of the Israeli Palestinian conflict. Putin, who has been charged with War Crimes, is in the UAE where he's been given the red carpet treatment. That will piss off the Yanks and may help the Bill on Ukraine Aid to pass. Issue is the money. Their national debt is approaching $34 trillion. That's money owed to Bond holders and other types of securities. They could just issue more bonds to raise the money but that isn't the issue. More and more governments at looking inward to support their own people(except the UK who support anyone that tips up on the Kent coast) and it's a political argument rather than a fiscal one I believe. If the USA stop supporting Ukraine, well they are in deep trouble. Puitin must be laughing his socks off.
UK is supporting Rwanda's politicians.
 

VorZakone

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Under Putin, the uber-wealthy Russians known as ‘oligarchs’ are still rich but far less powerful

Analyst Nikolai Petrov of Britain’s Royal Institute of International Affairs wrote that Russia is engaged in deprivatization “intended to redistribute wealth to a new generation of less-powerful individuals and shore up the president’s own position.”

“A new group of quasi-owner state oligarchs is being created, with wealth and control redistributed from the ‘old nobles’ to the new,” he said.
https://apnews.com/article/russia-putin-oligarchs-rich-ukraine-war-9b167bb98ed050c5fbfadf0b069a0b8c
 

The United

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I don't have a particular answer for that. Ukrainians have said that Wagner was a tougher opponent than Russian regular forces. And now Wagner has been pretty much disbanded by Putin.
Wagner was only there for that city, as I have been pointing out since months ago, and even the baldie confirmed it and did withdraw from the city.
 

The United

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On the Bakhmut debate...
That does not say anything though. I mean UKR did lose the city and still can not retake it. The main point of debate is that if it was worth for UKR to lose some of its best troop against Wagner prisoners who always had plan to leave the city once taken it and the time that it probably gave the RU to prepare their Southern front.

The result probably says no, it did not seem to worth it for UKR. There is nothing much to argue. It is not like UKR held the city. They did NOT.
 

VorZakone

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That does not say anything though. I mean UKR did lose the city and still can not retake it. The main point of debate is that if it was worth for UKR to lose some of its best troop against Wagner prisoners who always had plan to leave the city once taken it vs the time that it probably gave the RU to prepare their Southern front.

The result probably says no, it did not seem to worth it for UKR. There is nothing much to argue. It is not like UKR held the city. They did NOT.
To be replaced by the Russian regular army?
 

The United

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To be replaced by the Russian regular army?
Yes. So basically, RU's normal/special troops did not have to exhaust themselves to get the city while the opposite happened to UKR. UKR didn't even get to destroy much of RU regular troops there. Wagner losing their prisoners did not have much effect on RU's regular force capacity and UKR would not meet them again, meaning killing them as many as they did made little difference for the war as Wagner was just like a different entity.
 

VorZakone

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Yes. So basically, RU's normal/special troops did not have to exhaust themselves to get the city while the opposite happened to UKR. UKR didn't even get to destroy much of RU regular troops there. Wagner losing their prisoners did not have much effect on RU's regular force capacity and UKR would not meet them again, meaning killing them as many as they did made little difference for the war as Wagner was just like a different entity.
I'm not sure to what extent it matters. Whether they had to face Wagner convicts or Russian regulars, the Ukrainian explanation is that Bakhmut was important for them to defend for territorial reasons according to that WaPo article. They failed to hold Bakhmut but that was their rationale.

Also, if not at Bakhmut, what guarantees are there that Ukraine wouldn't have had to face these prisoners somewhere else? The Ukrainians themselves know that the trade-off was horrible and that they were losing good men in a fight against convicts that Russia couldn't care less about. But is that an argument to avoid all areas where Russia deploys the prisoners?
 

Morty_

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That does not say anything though. I mean UKR did lose the city and still can not retake it. The main point of debate is that if it was worth for UKR to lose some of its best troop against Wagner prisoners who always had plan to leave the city once taken it and the time that it probably gave the RU to prepare their Southern front.

The result probably says no, it did not seem to worth it for UKR. There is nothing much to argue. It is not like UKR held the city. They did NOT.
Bakhmut isn't even strategically important, so there is no reason to panic over not taking it back.

What is important, however, is Russia paying of US politicians, so no further aid will come, Europe is on its own now, and they don't care enough to increase production to even match Russia.

2024 is going to be a really depressing year, by the looks of thing.
 

The United

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I'm not sure to what extent it matters. Whether they had to face Wagner convicts or Russian regulars, the Ukrainian explanation is that Bakhmut was important for them to defend for territorial reasons according to that WaPo article. They failed to hold Bakhmut but that was their rationale.

Also, if not at Bakhmut, what guarantees are there that Ukraine wouldn't have had to face these prisoners somewhere else? The Ukrainians themselves know that the trade-off was horrible and that they were losing good men in a fight against convicts that Russia couldn't care less about. But is that an argument to avoid all areas where Russia deploys the prisoners?
There are no guarantees in war. That's why I said my argument was based on hindsight, even though many military experts were raising concerns during the battle of the city. But it is a fact that Wagner was going to leave the city. The UKR explaining is fine for themselves. But the price they may have paid for it may not have been worth it, and whatever is happening now is probably the consequence of it.

The argument was that UKR should have left the city early while diverting some of its resources to push on the southern front early to unsettle the RU defense there. Now, I know you would ask what about the RU march from Bakhmut. Well, are they doing now? How did UKR contain them around the city before and now? That's what they should have done early to avoid losing many men against prisoners who will have left and little impact on the war overall.
 
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The United

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Bakhmut isn't even strategically important, so there is no reason to panic over not taking it back.

What is important, however, is Russia paying of US politicians, so no further aid will come, Europe is on its own now, and they don't care enough to increase production to even match Russia.

2024 is going to be a really depressing year, by the looks of thing.
See the above post. What you said about the city not important for strategically is true, it made even less sense that they spent so much time and resources to defend it. The poster that I am replying to said UKR thought it was.

I think some posters are really not getting my argument on how defending that city for that long with so many losses may have affected their success (or failure) on their southern offensive.
 
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