Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

[GlastonSpur]

The BBC reports:

"Ukrainian forces have retaken Sumy, says regional governor

Elsewhere in Ukraine, the governor of the Sumy region in the north-east of the country says the Ukrainian military has regained full control of the area.
Dmytro Zhyvytskyy wrote on social media that Russian forces had withdrawn from Sumy but he warned residents against returning before mines were cleared.
The city, which is close to the Russian border, was the scene of heavy bombardment and fighting early in the invasion.

Britain's Ministry of Defence said this morning that Russian forces have now fully withdrawn from northern Ukraine.

 

[spiriticon]

The European Union has agreed further sanctions targeting Russia.

The EU says this fifth package of "restrictive measures" is aimed at ramping up economic pressure on the Kremlin and aims to "cripple its ability to finance its invasion of Ukraine".

The latest sanctions package includes:

• An import ban on all forms of Russian coal
• A full transaction ban and asset freeze on four Russian banks
• A ban on Russian and Belarusian freight road operators working in the EU
• Excluding Russia from procurement contracts

Additional sanctions are being considered by the EU, including targeting oil imports and transaction methods. The EU has said reducing its dependency on Russian energy imports is a priority.


These Western sanctions need to step up to the max. I can't believe there are still Russian banks that have not been sanctioned. What are we waiting for exactly?

Sanction all of them and cut them all from SWIFT, except the one which we need to pay the gas (blood) money to.

 

[Simbo]

Warning, graphic. Putin needs to be flayed alive.

omg no, that would be a war crime!

 

[gorky_utd]

Then I'd suggest you wake up and smell the coffee, China supports Russia. Authoritarian leaders around the world - in Brazil, North Korea, Cuba, Byelorussia, Syria and elsewhere - support Russia.

Moreover, if China were to invade Taiwan then of course European nations will get involved - in defence of freedom and democracy. The UK, France, Italy and Spain have a combined 6 aircraft carriers for starters - that's 3 times more than what China has.

It is because Taiwan is world semiconductor hub.

 

[Rajma]

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Former head of FSB on Ukraine who advised Putin.

 

[Suedesi]

Thread on EU and the gas stop.

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He compares it to EU telling Ireland, Greece among others to do drastic measures 10 years ago when the EU bailed them out of recession. Germany probably doesn’t see the analogy in the same way.

And there you have it.

EU can always purchase energy from the USA

USA is a net exporter of oil, just not a cheap exporter of oil.

 

[Suedesi]

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Former head of FSB on Ukraine who advised Putin.

Putin cleaning house - he was probably on the agency payroll.

 

[Rajma]

The cheaper way to finish this without a blanket gas/oil ban is to simply arm Ukraine to max (fighter jets, etc.). Simply get them everything they need and this will be over soon, I’m amazed that allied nations (especially Germany who are to suffer most from gas ban) didn’t reach to this conclusion sharply. Ukraine will manage defend itself without a direct Nato involvement, it needs swift delivery of high end weapons.

 

[Simbo]

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[GodShaveTheQueen]

Considering Zelensky has let his location known, have there been any attempts to capture or kill him? Aware that Russians are not that concentrated on Kyiv currently, but surprised to see no attacks on him yet.

I hope it doesn't happen, but Zelensky getting killed is a really interesting hypothetical scenario to see how the rest of the world reacts. Probably the only scenario where a military intervention might happen?

 

[VorZakone]

Considering Zelensky has let his location known, have there been any attempts to capture or kill him? Aware that Russians are not that concentrated on Kyiv currently, but surprised to see no attacks on him yet.

I hope it doesn't happen, but Zelensky getting killed is a really interesting hypothetical scenario to see how the rest of the world reacts. Probably the only scenario where a military intervention might happen?

No death squad is getting near Zelenskiy. I reckon Western intel is helping out Zelenskiy's personal security.

 

[harms]

Putin cleaning house - he was probably on the agency payroll.

Obviously we’ll never know for sure but a far likelier possibility that everything points to is that he was simply taking most of the money that were supposed to go into supporting a wide net of agents for himself, thinking that nothing would happen anyway — just like it happens everywhere in Russian government institutions.

 

[Pintu]

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[harms]

Considering Zelensky has let his location known, have there been any attempts to capture or kill him? Aware that Russians are not that concentrated on Kyiv currently, but surprised to see no attacks on him yet.

I hope it doesn't happen, but Zelensky getting killed is a really interesting hypothetical scenario to see how the rest of the world reacts. Probably the only scenario where a military intervention might happen?

He’s been appearing in Kyiv every day on camera to show that he’s still alive & haven’t fled, so it’s not like something had changed since then.

 

[TMDaines]

Genuinely looks and sounds drunk:

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[RedRover]

No death squad is getting near Zelenskiy. I reckon Western intel is helping out Zelenskiy's personal security.

If it's correct that Russia has sent numerous death squads of mercenaries at him and they've all be "liquidated" by the hundred or so I wouldn't be surprised if there are a few mercenaries supplied by other, more friendly nations helping out. Unofficially of course.

 

[MoskvaRed]

Genuinely looks and sounds drunk:

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Was that today? If so, it’s encouraging if a key propagandist is reduced to arguments about soup and, as you indicate, appearing looking like Nadine Dorries after an all-dayer in the HOC bar. I reckon the rats are starting to get worried about the ship going under.

 

[GlastonSpur]

 

[nimic]

https://www.nrk.no/norge/pastar-at-norskrussisk-nynazist-kriger-for-russland-i-ukraina-1.15926555

Russo-Norwegian neo Nazi leading a militia fighting in Ukraine. Guess they were the real Nazis all along, who knew.

 

[Dr. Dwayne]

https://www.nrk.no/norge/pastar-at-norskrussisk-nynazist-kriger-for-russland-i-ukraina-1.15926555

Russo-Norwegian neo Nazi leading a militia fighting in Ukraine. Guess they were the real Nazis all along, who knew.

Rattlecanned his AK and everything. He's serious.

 

[GlastonSpur]

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[nimic]

Rattlecanned his AK and everything. He's serious.

He's been committing war crimes in Syria, so unfortunately he really is serious.

 

[VorZakone]

So basically both countries are now anticipating a big battle for Donbas, right?

 

[VorZakone]

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[GlastonSpur]

This is big news I reckon ...

The BBC reports:

"The EU has handed President Zelensky a questionnaire which will lead Ukraine a step further in being granted EU candidate status at a conference in Kyiv.

Speaking to the Ukrainian President, European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen said the EU will support Ukraine to ensure its completion takes "weeks, not years", as the process has been somewhat accelerated due to the war.

"Russia will descend into economic, financial and technological decay, while Ukraine is marching towards the European future, this is what I see," she said.

Receiving the questionnaire in an envelope, Zelensky assured journalists that it would be ready in a week.

Josep Borrell, the EU's foreign policy chief, added that more than €7m had been allocated to support Ukraine in gathering and presenting proof of war crimes to the International Criminal Court.

Borrell also mentioned that EU delegates will soon return to the capital and he believes embassies will follow suit."

 

[frostbite]

Thread on EU and the gas stop.

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He compares it to EU telling Ireland, Greece among others to do drastic measures 10 years ago when the EU bailed them out of recession. Germany probably doesn’t see the analogy in the same way.

He is right though.

Greece made serious economic mistakes, it is true. Back then, Germany said that those mistakes should be punished because otherwise it will be like we reward mistakes... so they crushed the Greek economy as a punishment.

Now it is obvious that Germany made serious mistakes with their dependency on Russian gas. They should take the high ground and punish themselves for those mistakes. Yes, their economy will suffer, but they should blame it on the decisions of their past leadership. Unfortunately, here we have people who are getting killed, it is not just about money.

 

[Infra-red]

Considering Zelensky has let his location known, have there been any attempts to capture or kill him? Aware that Russians are not that concentrated on Kyiv currently, but surprised to see no attacks on him yet.

I hope it doesn't happen, but Zelensky getting killed is a really interesting hypothetical scenario to see how the rest of the world reacts. Probably the only scenario where a military intervention might happen?

There were reports in the early stages of the war that the Russians had embedded a death squad comprised of mercenaries somewhere in the vicinity of Kyiv.

Zelensky and others (including both Klitschko brothers) were supposedly on the kill list and the mercenaries had been tracking them with their phones in the weeks prior to the invasion. Reports surfaced some time later suggesting that the mercenary death squad had themselves been killed.

I'm sure the Russians are trying, but they must have all but given up on regime change at this point.

 

[Rajma]

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[GlastonSpur]

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[Simbo]

Considering Zelensky has let his location known, have there been any attempts to capture or kill him? Aware that Russians are not that concentrated on Kyiv currently, but surprised to see no attacks on him yet.

I hope it doesn't happen, but Zelensky getting killed is a really interesting hypothetical scenario to see how the rest of the world reacts. Probably the only scenario where a military intervention might happen?

Last time I saw him asked about this in an interview he avoided any details, just said his security is doing their job.

 

[VorZakone]

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[do.ob]

He is right though.

Greece made serious economic mistakes, it is true. Back then, Germany said that those mistakes should be punished because otherwise it will be like we reward mistakes... so they crushed the Greek economy as a punishment.

Now it is obvious that Germany made serious mistakes with their dependency on Russian gas. They should take the high ground and punish themselves for those mistakes. Yes, their economy will suffer, but they should blame the decisions of their past leadership for that.

It's obvious that Germany made a terrible mistake in creating such a heavy dependance on Russian gas.

And it's a fair question to ask whether it should bite the bullet and cut off Russian gas. But that is a very complex question, since this could have far reaching consequences in destabilizing the country and by extension the EU. It's obviously possible that in the end the answer to that question is still that the government should do it, but approaching it via one liner tweets doesn't do the complexity of the issue justice.

And comparisons with Greece, etc, who had to cut spending as part of a massive EU bailout are just nonsensical. Germany isn't getting a bailout and demanding that someone brings their household in order, before you throw billions into a bottomless pit was hardly vindictive. As far as I'm aware academics were split in their judgement on EU imposed austerity.

 

[MoskvaRed]

It's obvious that Germany made a terrible mistake in creating such a heavy dependance on Russian gas.

And it's a fair question to ask whether it should bite the bullet and cut off Russian gas. But that is a very complex question, since this could have far reaching consequences in destabilizing the country and by extension the EU. It's obviously possible that in the end the answer to that question is still that the government should do it, but approaching it via one liner tweets doesn't do the complexity of the issue justice.

And comparisons with Greece, etc, who had to cut spending as part of a massive EU bailout are just nonsensical. Germany isn't getting a bailout and demanding that someone brings their household in order, before you throw billions into a bottomless pit was hardly vindictive. As far as I'm aware academics were split in their judgement on EU imposed austerity.

It is similar in that Germany has been living in a fool’s paradise living on cheap gas at the expense of European security, whether it be due to venality (Schroeder) or naivety (Merkel). Not exactly the same as living on cheap credit at the expense of Northern Europe but, given the geopolitical implications, arguably more serious. France and the UK took different decisions which no doubt cost more money and reduced the relative competitiveness of their economies. Now the (bottoxed) Devil has come to collect his payment from Faust.

 

[frostbite]

And comparisons with Greece, etc, who had to cut spending as part of a massive EU bailout are just nonsensical. Germany isn't getting a bailout and demanding that someone brings their household in order, before you throw billions into a bottomless pit was hardly vindictive. As far as I'm aware academics were split in their judgement on EU imposed austerity.

I disagree with this part. Ten years ago, a lot of blaming was based on moral arguments, that Greece should pay for their economic mistakes and miscalculations. There were easier ways to fix the economic problems, but Germany wanted to cause pain, to teach Greece a lesson.

You say that cutting off Russian gas may destabilize the German government. Destroying the Greek economy also destabilized the Greek and brought morons to the top in 2015, and now Greece has a lot of anti-western sentiments because of that.

Anyway, back then it was just about money. Now it's about lives. Germany should stop paying Russia. The money they give to Russia help kill Ukrainians, it is that simple.

German stupidity is a big reason we are having this war. It's the main reason that Putin did not think that the West will do anything substantial, because Germany depends on their gas.

 

[Simbo]

Your fight is our fight.

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[frostbite]

If Germany stops giving any money to Russia, will the Germany GNP fall by 25%? I don't know, but I doubt it. By the way, the Greek GNP fell 25% because of the German "solution" to that economic problem. And yes, I agree that it was Greece that had caused that problem. And today, it is Germany that has caused this problem, nobody forced the Russian gas to them. The big difference is that Greece cannot force a "solution" to Germany, they have to do it themselves.

 

[do.ob]

It is similar in that Germany has been living in a fool’s paradise living on cheap gas at the expense of European security, whether it be due to venality (Schroeder) or naivety (Merkel). Not exactly the same as living on cheap credit at the expense of Northern Europe but, given the geopolitical implications, arguably more serious. France and the UK took different decisions which no doubt cost more money and reduced the relative competitiveness of their economies. Now the (bottoxed) Devil has come to collect his payment from Faust.

Obviously Germany's current dilemma is self imposed, but I'm not sure on the economic side. Part of the reason why Germany needs so much Russian gas is because we took a step away from nuclear power, which for examples France greatly relies on. But that wasn't really an economic decision, but a political reaction to Fukushima. To be honest I have no idea what the real net costs for the different energy sources are, but for what it's worth energy prices in Germany are actually quite high. So I'm not sure the economical side of your post actually applies.

I disagree with this part. Ten years ago, a lot of blaming was based on moral arguments, that Greece should pay for their economic mistakes and miscalculations. There were easier ways to fix the economic problems, but Germany wanted to cause pain, to teach Greece a lesson.

You say that cutting off Russian gas may destabilize the German government. Destroying the Greek economy also destabilized the Greek and brought morons to the top in 2015, and now Greece has a lot of anti-western sentiments because of that.

Anyway, back then it was just about money. Now it's about lives. Germany should stop paying Russia. The money they give to Russia help kill Ukrainians, it is that simple.

German stupidity is a big reason we are having this war. It's the main reason that Putin did not think that the West will do anything substantial, because Germany depends on their gas.

Let's set aside Greece, since that would take the thread wildly off topic and let's assume that an elected official would willingly nuke his own economy:

You're saying yourself that Greece's economic hardship brought anti western idiots into the government.

Do you not see the issues of something like that happening. It could bring the pro Russian Afd into government and be the end of the EU.

 

[stefan92]

If Germany stops giving any money to Russia, will the Germany GNP fall by 25%? I don't know, but I doubt it. By the way, the Greek GNP fell 25% because of the German "solution" to that economic problem. And yes, I agree that it was Greece that had caused that problem. And today, it is Germany that has caused this problem, nobody forced the Russian gas to them. The big difference is that Greece cannot force a "solution" to Germany, they have to do it themselves.

Possibly yes. Energy is already comparatively expensive in Germany and a lot of our industries that need a lot of energy are already at the brink of shutting down because of that, and that's despite already getting heavy tax benefits.

And simply the amount of gas we need as a basic ingredient for our huge chemical industry means getting not enough gas would directly and heavily influence its output. It's not like just a few houses can't be heated, it is a cornerstone of our basic industries, and everything else depends on it. 25% look quite high, but I wouldn't rule it out due to chain effects.

 

[Rajma]

Possibly yes. Energy is already comparatively expensive in Germany and a lot of our industries that need a lot of energy are already at the brink of shutting down because of that, and that's despite already getting heavy tax benefits.

And simply the amount of gas we need as a basic ingredient for our huge chemical industry means getting not enough gas would directly and heavily influence its output. It's not like just a few houses can't be heated, it is a cornerstone of our basic industries, and everything else depends on it. 25% look quite high, but I wouldn't rule it out due to chain effects.

Most reports I’ve seen have it 6% GDP slowdown on the extreme end, thus not sure where those 25% are coming from really. I think you do it now there’s enough in reserves with the summer coming up and it will massively speed up the implementation of possible solutions - that’s what happens in free economics, the longer you’re dragging the foot the worse it will be with the winter season approaching.

 

[frostbite]

Possibly yes. Energy is already comparatively expensive in Germany and a lot of our industries that need a lot of energy are already at the brink of shutting down because of that, and that's despite already getting heavy tax benefits.

And simply the amount of gas we need as a basic ingredient for our huge chemical industry means getting not enough gas would directly and heavily influence its output. It's not like just a few houses can't be heated, it is a cornerstone of our basic industries, and everything else depends on it. 25% look quite high, but I wouldn't rule it out due to chain effects.

So, what you are saying is that you got rich and had a lot of fun based on cheap Russian gas.

Okay, but now the money you give to Russia is causing deaths in Ukraine. How do you live with that? It doesn't matter to the Germans because someone else is dying?