The Firestarter
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Also it would be much harder to take Crimea without proper aviation.
The Russians may not have an option in the matter if the country is crumbling domestically and their forces are depleted. It would obviously only happen if Putin was sufficiently weakened from within where he doesn't have the resources to defend Crimea. Its also worth noting that the forces in the south are from Crimea, so if Ukraine takes them out, there really aren't enough Russian forces in Crimea left to defend against a takeover.I don't see Ukraine taking back Crimea whatever happens. It's hugely important to Russia in political terms (even the jailed opposition leader Navalny is not in favour of giving up Crimea), which means they would throw everything they have in its defence, even if it meant stripping all their troops out Kaliningrad and elsewhere.
Putin (or his successor) would formally declare war and go for full military call-up if needed rather than give up Crimea. It isn't going back to Ukraine ever IMO.The Russians may not have an option in the matter if the country is crumbling domestically and their forces are depleted. It would obviously only happen if Putin was sufficiently weakened from within where he doesn't have the resources to defend Crimea. Its also worth noting that the forces in the south are from Crimea, so if Ukraine takes them out, there really aren't enough Russian forces in Crimea left to defend against a takeover.
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Ever is a long time. We may see the break up of Russia at the end of a failed war, where Crimea may rejoin Ukraine.Putin (or his successor) would formally declare war and go for full military call-up if needed rather than give up Crimea. It isn't going back to Ukraine ever IMO.
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Quality pics. Whatever happens to this guy, I'm sure they will be shared widely.Tweet
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It is not just a matter of bodies, the main thing is equipment. If the war keeps going for a year or two, and if the Ukrainian army keeps modernizing, and if they still have the desire to keep fighting, and if they get F-16 or MQ-9 drones (yes, that's a lot of ifs!), then I think they can retake Crimea, or make it so expensive for Russia that they give it up. The difference with modern NATO equipment is that it's very precise, they will be able to eliminate Russian tanks and artillery without having to resort to extensive bombing like the Soviets.And it will get harder and harder for Russia to replace that equipment.Putin (or his successor) would formally declare war and go for full military call-up if needed rather than give up Crimea. It isn't going back to Ukraine ever IMO.
OK, but my understanding is that no Russian leader can (or could) hope to survive if they lose Crimea. It's an absolute red-line. This makes it incredibly hard for Ukraine to take to back.It is not just a matter of bodies, the main thing is equipment. If the war keeps going for a year or two, and if the Ukrainian army keeps modernizing, and if they still have the desire to keep fighting, and if they get F-16 or MQ-9 drones (yes, that's a lot of ifs!), then I think they can retake Crimea, or make it so expensive for Russia that they give it up. The difference with modern NATO equipment is that it's very precise, they will be able to eliminate Russian tanks and artillery without having to resort to extensive bombing like the Soviets.And it will get harder and harder for Russia to replace that equipment.
Where has that come from?OK, but my understanding is that no Russian leader can (or could) hope to survive if they lose Crimea. It's an absolute red-line. This makes it incredibly hard for Ukraine to take to back.
If he’s talking about political survival and not the literal one it’s hard to argue with this. The only way Russians would gave up Crimea would be if the entire population will somehow adapt the decolonization narrative and it’s, well, impossible if we’re talking about short-term future and highly unlikely if we’re talking about mid-term.Where has that come from?
An absolute majority of tatars in Crimea are absolutely pissed off with Putin's regime and feel much worse after becoming a part of Russia. Taking into account the way the war is going, I fully expect Crimea to become part of Ukraine again.I think people underestimate the importance of geography. How is Ukraine supposed to retake Crimea without aviation & fleet when its only connected to the continent by a narrow strip of land.
Not to mention that Crimea was never really Ukrainian from a cultural and historical perspective — unlike Donbas regions that were close to Russia culturally & linguistically but were still Ukrainian by any relevant metric.
I’m not a supporter of the annexation by the way & I would’ve preferred for Crimea to remain a Ukrainian territory even without knowing the consequences of the whole 2014 conflict.
Ya but Crimea is connected by even less to Russian land. It would be hard for Russia to keep Crimea supplied if 1) the "land bridge" to Crimea is cutoff, which is a possibility over the next several months and 2) UKR receives the numerous anti-ship and long-range fire weapons systems from the West that they likely are to get. Russia got Crimea in the first place because UKR was under-prepared but it will be harder to hold on to the longer the war drags on.I think people underestimate the importance of geography. How is Ukraine supposed to retake Crimea without aviation & fleet when its only connected to the continent by a narrow strip of land.
Not to mention that Crimea was never really Ukrainian from a cultural and historical perspective — unlike Donbas regions that were close to Russia culturally & linguistically but were still Ukrainian by any relevant metric.
I’m not a supporter of the annexation by the way & I would’ve preferred for Crimea to remain a Ukrainian territory even without knowing the consequences of the whole 2014 conflict.
Vlad Vexler, who was born in Russia, is very well-connected there and knows a lot about it. I find him to be the most convincing commentator I've heard of when it comes to Russia, its people, history and political structure.Where has that come from?
An absolute majority of Crimean Tatars is an (absolute) minority in Crimea — they’ve amounted to around 10% in 2014 and a lot of tatars have left Crimea since then because of Putin’s politics (that are very reminiscent of Chinese ones regarding Uyghurs, where even the idea of a non-Russian national identity is seen as a threat to the regime and dealt with accordingly).An absolute majority of tatars in Crimea are absolutely pissed off with Putin's regime and feel much worse after becoming a part of Russia. Taking into account the way the war is going, I fully expect Crimea to become part of Ukraine again.
At this stage it does not really matter what people think of Хрущёв. Crimea was part of Ukraine after collapse of USSR and the local population did not dream of becoming a part of Russian federation. Крым наш was a part of Putin's propaganda which sitswell with majority of population residing outside of Crimea. These days things have changed, rushizm is losing and there is no way it will be able to defeat Ukraine under western support. If the yellow blues decide to fight for Crimea they are very likely to win. Blowing up that bridge is going to happen in the next couple of years imho.If he’s talking about political survival and not the literal one it’s hard to argue with this. The only way Russians would gave up Crimea would be if the entire population will somehow adapt the decolonization narrative and it’s, well, impossible if we’re talking about short-term future and highly unlikely if we’re talking about mid-term.
Khrushchev is still remembered, first and foremost, not as a guy who had oversaw the process of destalinisation but as a guy who gave Crimea away.
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Russia has both aviation and the Black Sea fleet as well as the support of the majority of Crimean population. You can give Ukraine ships but creating a competent navy takes decades, not months. The same is true for aviation, although Ukraine at least has something to build upon.Ya but Crimea is connected by even less to Russian land. It would be hard for Russia to keep Crimea supplied if 1) the "land bridge" to Crimea is cutoff, which is a possibility over the next several months and 2) UKR receives the numerous anti-ship and long-range fire weapons systems from the West that they likely are to get. Russia got Crimea in the first place because UKR was under-prepared but it will be harder to hold on to the longer the war drags on.
I don’t really want to argue with you since arguing for Putin’s point of view makes me physically sick but you simply don’t seem to understand the real situation — at least based on what you’ve posted here so far. The idea of Crimea rejoining Russia never really died — more so, it was well more relevant in Crimea than it was in Russia up until 2014.At this stage it does not really matter what people think of Хрущёв. Crimea was part of Ukraine after collapse of USSR and the local population did not dream of becoming a part of Russian federation. Крым наш was a part of Putin's propaganda which sitswell with majority of population residing outside of Crimea. These days things have changed, rushizm is losing and there is no way it will be able to defeat Ukraine under western support. If the yellow blues decide to fight for Crimea they are very likely to win. Blowing up that bridge is going to happen in the next couple of years imho.
I think we are more so in the latter phases of this conflict than the earlier ones, mainly because the Russian side is rapidly running out of troops, weapons, morale, and domestic support. And that's before we even get to the the economic damage sanctions are doing to the economy. At some not too distant point, something will have to give, and I don't think it will be the Ukrainian side that eventually collapses.The main question is how the war will end. We still have no idea. Is Ukraine going to win? It is not clear yet. And how exactly do they win? Will they push Russians out of Ukraine completely? Will the Ukrainians attack Russian soil to create a "buffer" or do they just stop at the border?
There is always the possibility that Ukraine will lose or "lose the will to fight" which is the same thing.
There is also the possibility that the Russian army will collapse completely after sustaining heavy losses.
Between these two extremes, there are many possibilities. It is still early days, I am afraid.
I respect your points on the population but I never said that UKR needs a navy to take Crimea. If they blow up the bridges connecting to Kerch and prevent the Black Sea fleet from operating near the coast with anti-ship missiles, they can start by conducting a siege, where it will be difficult for Russia to supply Crimea. There is then enough land to attempt an attack without the use of boats, especially if they can first encircle Russian forces in Kherson and Zaphorizhia and prevent them from retreating across the Crimean border. It's not a simple operation but it's more doable than one may think.Russia has both aviation and the Black Sea fleet as well as the support of the majority of Crimean population. You can give Ukraine ships but creating a competent navy takes decades, not months. The same is true for aviation, although Ukraine at least has something to build upon.
Crimea is a very tough point that many outsiders fail to truly comprehend — specifically the weird loyalty that the majority Crimean population feels towards Russia. I remember my frustration while arguing with Crimeans on whenever it’s a good idea to join Russia or not in mid 00’s — when the possibility of that happening were basically non-existent. Most Crimeans share the same post-Soviet resentment that Russians feel, but Crimeans were also very bitter that after the collapse of the Soviet Union they were left with a less fortunate peripheral state rather than with a wealthier Russia that they were originally a part of. Don’t mind the language please as I’m trying to verbalize their point of view, not my own.
While that may be so, if they are not on the up wealth wise and so on then it's harder to maintain that viewpoint. It's the same reason China's authoritarianism works, it's a bargain with the people that living standards will generally get better so long as you give up your democratic rights. As soon as the living standards stop rising, or worse fall, that bargain starts to fall apart unless it can be replaced with something else.Russia has both aviation and the Black Sea fleet as well as the support of the majority of Crimean population. You can give Ukraine ships but creating a competent navy takes decades, not months. The same is true for aviation, although Ukraine at least has something to build upon.
Crimea is a very tough point that many outsiders fail to truly comprehend — specifically the weird loyalty that the majority Crimean population feels towards Russia. I remember my frustration while arguing with Crimeans on whenever it’s a good idea to join Russia or not in mid 00’s — when the possibility of that happening were basically non-existent. Most Crimeans share the same post-Soviet resentment that Russians feel, but Crimeans were also very bitter that after the collapse of the Soviet Union they were left with a less fortunate peripheral state rather than with a wealthier Russia that they were originally a part of. Don’t mind the language please as I’m trying to verbalize their point of view, not my own.
I can't ever see that happening, especially after all the damage and trauma Putin has caused over the past 3 months. It would be like a reward for his efforts.Ultimately, I wouldn't be surprised if UKR decides to let Crimea go as part of a peace deal but I can only see this occurring once they have at least attempted to retake all of Donbas and Luhansk.
Zelensky discloses secret missions that sustained Mariupol
Helicopters with aid, ammunition were quietly sent to Azovstal. Russia shot most down. Yet pilots continually agreed to go on these missions—despite 90% of the pilots not returning.
"A lot of things were happening that no one could officially comment on. Because there were no air corridors to Azovstal because of Russia's powerful deployed air defenses. For many weeks, helicopter pilots, knowing that 90% of them don't come back ... flew there. We lost a lot of pilots."
Link?Zelensky discloses secret missions that sustained Mariupol
Helicopters with aid, ammunition were quietly sent to Azovstal. Russia shot most down. Yet pilots continually agreed to go on these missions—despite 90% of the pilots not returning.
“A lot of things were happening that no one could officially comment on. Because there were no air corridors to Azovstal because of Russia's powerful deployed air defenses. For many weeks, helicopter pilots, knowing that 90% of them don't come back ... flew there. We lost a lot of pilots."
Oh, yeah, it long-term who knows, maybe they’ll change their stance — as I’ve said, Russia will only get worse in the foreseeable future while Ukraine are likely to get a lot better with a potential EU membership and world-wide economical support.While that may be so, if they are not on the up wealth wise and so on then it's harder to maintain that viewpoint. It's the same reason China's authoritarianism works, it's a bargain with the people that living standards will generally get better so long as you give up your democratic rights. As soon as the living standards stop rising, or worse fall, that bargain starts to fall apart unless it can be replaced with something else.