Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Paxi

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Cheimoon said:
But if they retreat, they're never getting it back. See what happened in Georgia (and in fact keeps happening) or even their own Crimea.

Not that fighting back would make things better for Ukraine. They're well and truly fecked. We're back in pre-90s Europe, where neutrality didn't exist. (Except for Finland, but not sure if Putin would accept that for Ukraine.)
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They’re never getting it back now. Donbas and Lughansk are gone from Ukraine until there is a massive change in Russia and an acceptance of wrong doing - which could take decades.
 

harms

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TMDaines said:
What people? Now there’s largely just pensioners and militias. Anyone with any future or options has long gone to either the rest of Ukraine, Europe or Russia depending on their connections and world outlook.

Without militias from Russia, there would be no Donetsk or Luhansk People’s Republic. The idea that these separatist states organically formed and represent the will of the populace there pre-2014 is just nonsense, even if the oblasts have a majority of Russian mother tongue speakers and people who generally look East. My mother-in-law is one of these people, but it doesn’t mean she doesn’t see herself as Ukrainian, nor does she want to wake up and find herself living in Russia.
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This is exactly my point. There's close to 3,5-3,6 million people in DNR & LNR combined, most of those have lived there since before the conflict. Those militias were also formed from the local forces even though over the years many Russian troops were unofficially sent there to fight — but the most important part of Russian backing was in terms of weapons, supplies & also military training/organisations.
 

Mickeza

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TMDaines said:
If I was hanging around outside your house with a baseball bat, threatening your family and every now and then lobbing a brick through a window, you’d probably want me punished before I kick the door in, take what I want from your home and hurt your family. The idea that Russia has done nothing worth punishing since 2014 is absolutely delusional.
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That’s nice. The goal isn’t to punish at this moment it’s to deter. The aim is to stop a war. In the real world the only deterrent the west has got short of sending in forces are heavy sanctions. Sanctioning him now does feck all to stop him doing what we think he’s about to do. Yeah, it likely won’t stop him - it very much seems like he’s made up his mind - but until such a time as he invades there’s still a chance it might.
 

VorZakone

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I don't get comments like this. The Ossetians and Abkhazians categorically do not want to live under Georgian rule. It is what it is.

 

JPRouve

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VorZakone said:
I don't get comments like this. The Ossetians and Abkhazians categorically do not want to live under Georgian rule. It is what it is.

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This one is very strange, it essentially tells you that people will deny you the right of self determination if you aren't on their side.
 

LARulz

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VorZakone said:
Experts not buying that Putin is satisfied.

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I would have thought that made some sense though - basically a threat to Ukraine that if they try and defend they will get attacked from other parts so can't go fu on in just one region. Ukraine have a smaller army and would need to spread it even more if they knew Russians were in other border areas
 

TMDaines

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harms said:
This is exactly my point. There's close to 3,5-3,6 million people in DNR & LNR combined, most of those have lived there since before the conflict. Those militias were also formed from the local forces even though over the years many Russian troops were unofficially sent there to fight — but the most important part of Russian backing was in terms of weapons, supplies & also military training/organisations.
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Harms that can’t be your point. Look at the population of the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast, the estimated size of the active personnel in the region, and the estimated amount of conscripts/volunteers that have entered from Russia. Without Russia’s leadership, manpower and arms, there are no supposed separatist states or armies. It’s a coup d'état backed by Russia.

Over half the people that lived there before the war have left. The people there who are left are those with no option and are disproportionately those seeing out their pensionable years there. This isn’t liberation or them exercising their self-determination.

Mickeza said:
That’s nice. The goal isn’t to punish at this moment it’s to deter. The aim is to stop a war. In the real world the only deterrent the west has got short of sending in forces are heavy sanctions. Sanctioning him now does feck all to stop him doing what we think he’s about to do. Yeah, it likely won’t stop him - it very much seems like he’s made up his mind - but until such a time as he invades there’s still a chance it might.
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The war started in 2014. What the hell do you think has been happening in Crimea and Donbas? We now have Russia officially sending “peace-keeping” forces into land that is recognised by every single country around the world – except by Russia – as Ukrainian, and people are still saying there is no war. Do we actually need Ukraine to unwisely respond before people go “Geez, I guess there’s a war now. Better get sanctioning.”?

Edit: typo
 
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2cents

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VorZakone said:
I don't get comments like this. The Ossetians and Abkhazians categorically do not want to live under Georgian rule. It is what it is.

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I don’t know about South Ossetia, but before the war Georgians outnumbered Abkhaz considerably in Abkhazia. Over 250,000 were subsequently forced to flee as Tbilisi lost the war. So it’s probably fair to say that, prior to the ethnic cleansing that took place, the population of Abkhazia were far more amenable to Georgian rule than the remaining population have been since.
 

Paxi

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See this encirclement of Ukraine, and the suspension of international flights, avoidance of Ukraine airspace et al, that’s bound wreak havoc for Ukrainian economy, surely?

Or is that the least of Zelenskys problems?
 

Droid_Repairs

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Paxi said:
See this encirclement of Ukraine, and the suspension of international flights, avoidance of Ukraine airspace et al, that’s bound wreak havoc for Ukrainian economy, surely?

Or is that the least of Zelenskys problems?
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Honestly I'd say an invasion by the Russian army is probably his main focus atm.
 
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