Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

[711]

Yeah that will be a tough one. Crimea has been only been de jour part of Ukraine since 2014, while it's been de facto part of Russia. They will not abandon it. And aside from what Putin and the Kremlin might accept, the people there are also primarily ethnic Russians who have had 8 years media control and Kremlin propaganda by now. So I'd stick my neck out and say they will not be very welcoming to a return to Ukraine any time soon.

I'm not here to tell the Ukrainians when to stop fighting and what deal they should take, but if it were me I think a deal along the following lines would be quite appealing:

1. Recognition of Crimea as Russian territory
2. More autonomy and local powers to Donbas while remaining part of Ukraine (disarmament of the rebels there and removal of Russian "little green men")
3. Some superficial "de-Nazification" for Russian eyes mostly (disband the successor units to Azov battalion etc.)
4. No NATO membership, but EU membership within Ukrainian rights
5. No change of regime in Kyiv or any commitment to have any Kremlin stooges there in any executive role. Complete political independence.
6. Right for Ukraine to arm (but no nukes)

While Ukraine has fought the Russians to a standstill it's still worth remembering that it's their country being invaded, their cities being pummelled, their civilians getting killed. They will not only have to put up with that for weeks/months, but they'll have to go on the offensive to get Crimea back. In which case the situation will reverse because going on the offensive, as the Russians have found, is a lot harder than holding ground and defending with ambushes etc. Only the Ukrainians themselves can tell if the prize (Crimea) is worth the fight.

That could even be Ukraine's exact fall-back position but they are not going to admit it and open negotiations from there or Russia will just want more. The sad thing is how many die as their talks move to a conclusion of course.

 

[Jotun]

Tbf, I don't think anyone, and I mean literally including all usint , fsb, Putin, his generals, and even Zelensky and his genstaff, expected RA to fall flat onto its face so spectacularly.

While Russia is underperforming, I don't think it's really THAAT spectacular. They are still managing to advance. They are pummeling cities into submission. Yes, they are having logistics issues, but that was always going to be a concern with Russian (my father used to live in Russia and he tells me stories of soldiers trading diesel from tanks for vodka). I'm trying to be optimistic and hope that Russia (military and economy) will collapse soon. But Russian strength was always artillery and that's what they are still using. I'm of the opinion you can't win a war and conquer country with only artillery, but I'm no expert, so we'll see. Russia went into this war with completely wrong intel and no preparation, they've had to adapt and they did it. Now they are doing what they do best, leveling cities to oblivion. You've probably noticed there are not as much videos of captured Russians, of destroyed tanks and captured gear. They still are there, but less then they were in the first week. We also know nothing about Ukrainians casualties. At this point I feel this is turning into a war of attrition.

I don't think I've ever seen a think tank get something right. They're not really worth listening to in the first place imo, and i highly doubt the US intelligence machine ever did.

I know. I don't listen to them either. I just got triggered by "their we were wrong, but not really" thread.

 

[The Firestarter]

While Russia is underperforming, I don't think it's really THAAT spectacular. They are still managing to advance. They are pummeling cities into submission. Yes, they are having logistics issues, but that was always going to be a concern with Russian (my father used to live in Russia and he tells me stories of soldiers trading diesel from tanks for vodka). I'm trying to be optimistic and hope that Russia (military and economy) will collapse soon. But Russian strength was always artillery and that's what they are still using. I'm of the opinion you can't win a war and conquer country with only artillery, but I'm no expert, so we'll see. Russia went into this war with completely wrong intel and no preparation, they've had to adapt and they did it. Now they are doing what they do best, leveling cities to oblivion. You've probably noticed there are not as much videos of captured Russians, of destroyed tanks and captured gear. They still are there, but less then they were in the first week. We also know nothing about Ukrainians casualties. At this point I feel this is turning into a war of attrition.




I know. I don't listen to them either. I just got triggered by "their we were wrong, but not really" thread.

They are not advancing. All they do is bomb cities now.

 

[GlastonSpur]

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Won't allow? I wonder how the Russians think they they can prevent it.

 

[MadMike]

As a matter of principle, a sovereign nation will never agree to cede its rightful territory after it has been invaded.

Has happened literally dozens of time in history though. Between nations, never mind empires. Example: Balkan Wars.

What's to stop it happening again?

What do you mean? There's only two ways a stronger nation doesn't chop bits off a weaker neighbour. They're strategic allies/partners or there's sufficient deterrence (military or economic). No piece of paper offers any guarantees, anyway. Same for any peace agreement.

Ukraine will never accept Crimea/Donbas as Russian land nor should they.

Probably not, but it will become a frozen conflict and those have a higher risk of re-flaring (see Nagorno-Karabakh) as soon as opportunities for either side to improve their position arise.

PS. Again, there's nothing to say a peace agreement would stop Russia in the future. But without it, the chances of it happening again and sooner, increase.

 

[MadMike]

I think they can kiss Crimea goodbye, Russia is almost the dug in defending nation there, but the next week or two will determine Ukraine's approach elsewhere. I doubt they will agree to anything before then. By all accounts they have stalled the Russian advances and are beginning to counter attack. They will want to see if they can drive Russia out without having to give any concessions at all.

If, as is being discussed, Ukraine can get some S300s and other familiar ex-Soviet high altitude anti air systems from Eastern European neighbours, then Russia has very little left to hurt them with.

Russia is pretty much the defending nation in Crimea and casualty tolls will reverse dramatically if Ukraine were to stage an offensive there. They basically don't have enough offensive assets and if they started the Russian strategy of blitzing cities from afar, then Western public opinion and goodwill on which Ukraine so much depends will turn.

Their only hope is Russia ups and leaves, but that would essentially be an admission of defeat by Putin, not just in the war but in rolling back 8 years of his work in Ukraine. There is no way he can present that as win or even as a draw and I feel pretty sure that he will rather go isolationist than accept that.

That could even be Ukraine's exact fall-back position but they are not going to admit it and open negotiations from there or Russia will just want more. The sad thing is how many die as their talks move to a conclusion of course.

Yeah perhaps.

 

[GlastonSpur]

.... There is no peace deal that would prevent Russia having another go ...

There is if the deal includes Ukraine joining the EU, because then there can be EU troops - and even military bases - in Ukraine. If Russia can't defeat Ukraine, then it certainly wouldn't be keen on re-invading and facing EU troops in addition.

However, short of EU membership, I agree with you.

 

[Water Melon]

Current Ukranian government will never ever recognize Crimea as a part of Russian Federation. Donbas and Luhansk will never be recognized as independent republics either.

 

[Sarni]

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So basically Russia's line here is 'we should be allowed to attack Ukraine, who should not be allowed to purchase any weapons, and should not have anyone helping them out while we can ask Belarus, Kazakhstan and Syria for assistance'.

 

[Sarni]

I agree.

There isn't any outside pressure on Ukraine to settle if they do not want to.

As long as the Russians don't break through they are dying in droves and their supply issues will only worsen. Putin either doubles down and calls up the reserves and increases conscription or he risks losing most of the men he has invaded with. At this point can he even be sure of being able to pull this army out? Ounce the retreat starts it could easily turn into a rout with thousands of men cut off.

Why would the Ukrainians give up now and let Putin lick his wounds and come back later with the shortcomings of his forces addressed. There is no peace deal that would prevent Russia having another go.

So its up to Zelensky to decide what is best in the long term for Ukraine.

Well one reason for them to be cautious about standing firm is that day after day thousands of civilians will be dying and I don't think there is any limit to how many Putin would be willing to kill. If he wants to tear Kyiv down he has enough weapons to do that, and will probably not hesitate either. That's not even a risk, that is a certainty. Also, Putin basically has a free pass now because West will not really do anything more than what they've already done by sanctioning Russia and providing Ukraine with weapons. If he feels like he wants to kill every single person in Kyiv, he will do that and probably nothing will happen to him or Russia on their territory, that is the worst part of it.

 

[Sarni]

While Russia is underperforming, I don't think it's really THAAT spectacular. They are still managing to advance. They are pummeling cities into submission. Yes, they are having logistics issues, but that was always going to be a concern with Russian (my father used to live in Russia and he tells me stories of soldiers trading diesel from tanks for vodka). I'm trying to be optimistic and hope that Russia (military and economy) will collapse soon. But Russian strength was always artillery and that's what they are still using. I'm of the opinion you can't win a war and conquer country with only artillery, but I'm no expert, so we'll see. Russia went into this war with completely wrong intel and no preparation, they've had to adapt and they did it. Now they are doing what they do best, leveling cities to oblivion. You've probably noticed there are not as much videos of captured Russians, of destroyed tanks and captured gear. They still are there, but less then they were in the first week. We also know nothing about Ukrainians casualties. At this point I feel this is turning into a war of attrition.




I know. I don't listen to them either. I just got triggered by "their we were wrong, but not really" thread.

Well depends on how you want to assess their progress. They wanted to take over major cities, they haven't. Their strategy is now to kill as many civilians as they can, destroy as much of the cities as they can and hope Ukraine gives up based on that. We knew from the start they would be able to do that, as would any other country invading any other country for that matter. It's not advancing.

 

[Water Melon]

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There is no way Russia can stop this. Lavrov can tell whatever fook he wants, but I just do not see how Russia can prevent it.

 

[Jotun]

There is if the deal includes Ukraine joining the EU, because then there can be EU troops - and even military bases - in Ukraine. If Russia can't defeat Ukraine, then it certainly wouldn't be keen on re-invading and facing EU troops in addition.

However, short of EU membership, I agree with you.

Which is not a deal between Ukraine and Russia anymore, but rather EU and Ukraine and Russia. Sure as hell, EU will not oblige themselves on having to accept Ukraine in EU. But I do think that an agreement between Russia, Ukraine AND West is necessary, mainly that West needs to guarantee the independence and sovereignty of Ukraine. Any guarantees by Russia or deals with them are not worth the paper they are written on and you have no reason to believe Putin won't come back in two years to take more.

 

[hellhunter]

There is no way Russia can stop this. Lavrov can tell whatever fook he wants, but I just do not see how Russia can prevent it.

Thinking the same, if they had means to stop it, they would, not talk about it

 

[2cents]

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[GlastonSpur]

Which is not a deal between Ukraine and Russia anymore, but rather EU and Ukraine and Russia. Sure as hell, EU will not oblige themselves on having to accept Ukraine in EU. But I do think that an agreement between Russia, Ukraine AND West is necessary, mainly that West needs to guarantee the independence and sovereignty of Ukraine. Any guarantees by Russia or deals with them are not worth the paper they are written on and you have no reason to believe Putin won't come back in two years to take more.

Ukraine having the right to apply to join the EU would have to be part of any peace deal between Ukraine and Russia, or else there won't be a peace deal.

And I'm pretty sure the EU would fast track Ukraine's application and welcome them in. Every Western nation has now had the blinkers removed and sees Russia as an existentialist threat that must be countered.

 

[Jotun]

They are not advancing. All they do is bomb cities now.

From what I can tell, they are attempting to encircle Kyiv and Kharkiv and gaining some, albeit limited progress in those operations. North eastern fronts seems to be coming closer to Kiev with each day. For instance they've managed to bypass Chernihiv and go around it. Mariupol is already encircled and cut off and if it falls they will have a land bridge between Crimea and Russia and they'll be able to move those troops west and north. My guess it that's what Putin is hoping for.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that Russia is doing particularly good, I'm definitely not saying they are winning. But they are doing what they do best, pummel cities into non-existence while they slowly try to encircle and cut them off.

Also, worth mentioning is, we know something about Russian loses, but almost nothing about Ukrainians. We don't know how much tanks they've lost, how much gear, how much professional and trained soldiers (and this is important as it will take time before mobilized civilians can operate at the same level). This is a war of attrition and we know nothing of Ukrainians losses and while we know Russia suffers, we also know Russia can take losses and doesn't care much about it, certainly not leadership.

 

[Tucholsky]

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Than it is no deal.
Disarmament and "Denazification" aka Puppet Government of Putin are dealbreakers

 

[spiriticon]

There is no way Ukraine can disarm to any sort of meaningful level. Not with Vladimir Putin in charge of Russia.

You just know he'll come back for Round 2 in a year's time. If they have US and EU security guarantees, that's a different story because that means we will join the war next time and that is probably enough to deter Putin for a long time.

 

[Jotun]

Ukraine having the right to apply to join the EU would have to be part of any peace deal between Ukraine and Russia, or else there won't be a peace deal.

And I'm pretty sure the EU would fast track Ukraine's application and welcome them in. Every Western nation has now had the blinkers removed and sees Russia as an existentialist threat that must be countered.

Ukraine always had that right, it's a non-negotiable right of any independent nation and can never be a bargaining chip, otherwise Ukraine may just admit to being another Belarus.

As for your second point, if I'm Zelensky, I want that in writing. Even then, Putin might come back before the fast-track is done.

Basically, if I'm Ukrainian's negotiator I demand guarantees from the West or I cede nothing and demand Russia completely pulls to pre-2014 situation (which I can not imagine happening). If Ukraine cedes anything, they have no guarantee Putin won't come back in a year or two.

The more I think about it, shis is such a terrible war, with no good position for any of the involved parties (Ukraine, Russia, EU, USA).

 

[Schmiznurf]

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He's giving them impossible demands, he doesn't want peace, he wants war. After what Russia did they're never going to agree to disarm or not join NATO, and de-nazification is literally impossible considering it's a made up bullshit reason for his invasion in the first place. The leader is a jew ffs, he's about as nazi as sushi.

 

[TMDaines]

Just Putin’s war…

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[nickm]

From what I can tell, they are attempting to encircle Kyiv and Kharkiv and gaining some, albeit limited progress in those operations. North eastern fronts seems to be coming closer to Kiev with each day. For instance they've managed to bypass Chernihiv and go around it. Mariupol is already encircled and cut off and if it falls they will have a land bridge between Crimea and Russia and they'll be able to move those troops west and north. My guess it that's what Putin is hoping for.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that Russia is doing particularly good, I'm definitely not saying they are winning. But they are doing what they do best, pummel cities into non-existence while they slowly try to encircle and cut them off.

Also, worth mentioning is, we know something about Russian loses, but almost nothing about Ukrainians. We don't know how much tanks they've lost, how much gear, how much professional and trained soldiers (and this is important as it will take time before mobilized civilians can operate at the same level). This is a war of attrition and we know nothing of Ukrainians losses and while we know Russia suffers, we also know Russia can take losses and doesn't care much about it, certainly not leadership.

I'm not an expert but all the territory they've taken is right next to the border and they've not been able to manage even those limited supply lines. It's a fantasy to think they will be able to move troops North, they will get murdered. They have come to a halt, which means they are increasingly easy pickings for Ukraine (although you make a fair point about scale of Ukrainian losses, they have been avoiding direct confrontations). And while you say Russian can take losses... I know you mean that politically, but militarily they can't sustain this. I read they are out of cruise missiles, out of precision weapons, and they've lost a vast amount of their armour, they have no secure comms, limited ability to manoeuvre, let alone what 30k casualties will do to their operational effectiveness. We're watching an army being beaten here. If they are forced to retreat before a deal, if they can install those air defences in the next few days which will enable them to widen counter attacks, it'll become a rout.

 

[11101]

Russia is pretty much the defending nation in Crimea and casualty tolls will reverse dramatically if Ukraine were to stage an offensive there. They basically don't have enough offensive assets and if they started the Russian strategy of blitzing cities from afar, then Western public opinion and goodwill on which Ukraine so much depends will turn.

Their only hope is Russia ups and leaves, but that would essentially be an admission of defeat by Putin, not just in the war but in rolling back 8 years of his work in Ukraine. There is no way he can present that as win or even as a draw and I feel pretty sure that he will rather go isolationist than accept that.

Crimea is gone, whether the officially cede it or not. But the rest of Ukraine is up for grabs and really not certain that Russia will be able to keep control of any of it in the next few weeks. If the counter attacks are successful there's a very real prospect that Russia will be forced to leave empty handed. Putin might not want to admit defeat but he may have no choice. If Ukraine can push their artillery back beyond range of the cities and they find a way to shoot cruise missiles down (some reports say Russia's stockpile is running low as it is), it's over for Russia.

In other words, if Russia don't make significant advances in the next couple of weeks it might not be up to Putin how this war ends.

 

[TMDaines]

Interesting thread that covers Russian army being made up of non-Russian ethnic people to make it more palatable:

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[sebsheep]

Just Putin’s war…

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Just seen this. Do they have one every year?

 

[nickm]

In other words, if Russia don't make significant advances in the next couple of weeks it might not be up to Putin how this war ends.

I think his army needs to be defeated (easy to say though). Next week or so will be crucial to tell us how likely that is, if Ukraine can hold out. If they can beat Russia and rout its army, then Putin isn't handwaving that one away.

 

[Shakesy]

Just Putin’s war…

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This is Orwellian. Wow. A group's IQ gets halved with every new member.

 

[sglowrider]

I think his army needs to be defeated (easy to say though). Next week or so will be crucial to tell us how likely that is, if Ukraine can hold out. If they can beat Russia and rout its army, then Putin isn't handwaving that one away.

Don't think that's realistic.

The best we can hope for is for UKR just needs to hold on and frustrated the Russians; increase the bodybags and deplete the hardware -- and wait for the sanctions to kick in and create domestic pressures and financial limitations.

 

[Hound Dog]

As a matter of principle, a sovereign nation will never agree to cede its rightful territory after it has been invaded. What's to stop it happening again?

It has kind of already happened and Putin is using that example to justify a lot of things he has done.

 

[McGrathsipan]

What is thus denazification the prick is on about?

Was there even anything remotely dangerous to Russia in Ukraine?

 

[sun_tzu]

Won't allow? I wonder how the Russians think they they can prevent it.

presumably cruise missile strikes on whatever brings them over the border as soon as it does so if they have sufficient intel to track the movements?

 

[sun_tzu]

What is thus denazification the prick is on about?

Was there even anything remotely dangerous to Russia in Ukraine?

Nazis apparently

 

[stefan92]

Don't think that's realistic.

There seem to be at least some successful counter attacks north of Kiyv. While I agree a total win isn't realistic for Ukraine, at least that Russian front might actually collapse, especially if Belarus stays reluctant to send their troops in.

 

[Dans]

Just Putin’s war…

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He's learned a thing or two from the donald I see.

 

[Raoul]

Lloyd Austin is in Bratislava today, presumably for this. I can see why the Russians are bricking it.

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[Revan]

There seem to be at least some successful counter attacks north of Kiyv. While I agree a total win isn't realistic for Ukraine, at least that Russian front might actually collapse, especially if Belarus stays reluctant to send their troops in.

By all accounts, Belarus army is terrible and one of the worst in Europe. So I do not think Belarus sending troops in changes anything.

Unless Russia goes full WMD, I think they have already lost this war.

 

[MTF]

presumably cruise missile strikes on whatever brings them over the border as soon as it does so if they have sufficient intel to track the movements?

Those take many minutes to get from where they're fired to wherever they want to hit, so they're much better employed against fixed targets. Essentially they would have to know where and when the target is going to be in the future, rather than where it is now.

 

[LDUred]

Just Putin’s war…

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Yep, was thinking the exact same thing. Imagining that it's just 'Putin's war' has always struck me as wishful, Pollyanna thinking. Sure, there will be intellectuals who will vehemently and eloquently oppose Putin, but they will be in the minority and easy to isolate.

Your average Russian will be captive to a propaganda machine that has been churning out abject nationalist drivel for the last twenty years. We shouldn't underestimate how immersive that is and how that attitude will become entrenched during a time when Russia is at war.

 

[sun_tzu]

Those take many minutes to get from where they're fired to wherever they want to hit, so they're much better employed against fixed targets. Essentially they would have to know where and when the target is going to be in the future, rather than where it is now.

unless you have a drone in the area giving life targeting info?
or as you say target the handover point
or more likley send in the rape squads and drop chemical weapons on kyiv till ukraine hand them over anyway as part of the denazification process