Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Beans said:
Which geographical hurdles are those? Rivers? It’s pretty flat and open in eastern Ukraine as I understand it.

One Ukraine military leader said that progress would be mostly halted by winter.
Click to expand...
Yes, there aren't many rivers in that area and nothing else at all acting as a geographical hurdle. That's why it's crucial what happened the last few days, the Oskil tiver was blocking Ukraine and now Russia has lost that line of defence completely. Now Ukraine can only be stopped by Russian forces in the North, everything else is pretty irrelevant.

And regarding winter: I doubt that winter weather would really stop Ukraine. A wet and muddy autumn would likely be a bigger problem than frozen grounds in winter.

Meanwhile it looks like Ukraine is advancing everywhere and Russia is truly collapsing. There are even reports that the Russian Bakhmut front is collapsing, which is remarkable as this was the only front where we have seen at least slow Russian progress lately.
 
Gehrman said:
It's still criminal that it should take Ukraine years to get another 16 of these considering how much they are a gamechanger.
Click to expand...
They also got some M270 meanwhile, which use the same missiles as the M142. Still could be more, but it's very often overlooked I feel.
 
stefan92 said:
They also got some M270 meanwhile, which use the same missiles as the M142. Still could be more, but it's very often overlooked I feel.
Click to expand...

I'm not an expert by means Havn't been in the miitary myself and I'm not a gunnut.
 
cyberman said:
This is why I doubt there’s some kind of winter lull. Ukraine will just be able to snap away at Russia without much coming back the other way and set up another rout
Click to expand...

Add to this the US is probably also supplying the Ukrainians with ISR (Intelligence, Reconnaissance, and Surveillance), which would mean not only are the Ukrainians getting very sophisticated weapons with pin point precision; they are also getting the specific coordinates of where the Russians are located.
 
Raoul said:
Click to expand...


Boom, finally. The last front, and imo, the hardest one. From what I heard Russia have a huge amount of BTGs in that area to protect that land bridge to Crimea. But that said, I've also heard that the Ukrainians are saving a ton of firepower for that front too.

If Ukraine can dissect that long front into 2 or 3 smaller pieces, the end of the war is nigh.
 
KYIV, Ukraine — The city council of Kyiv says it is providing evacuation centers with potassium iodine pills in preparation for a possible nuclear strike on the capital, Ukraine’s largest city.

Potassium iodine pills can help block the absorption of harmful radiation by the thyroid gland if taken just before or immediately after exposure to nuclear radiation.

The pills will be distributed to residents in areas contaminated by nuclear radiation if there is a need to evacuate, the city council said in a statement.
Click to expand...
https://apnews.com/article/russia-u...and-politics-9c1297eb1d1557a91652aa64a0fbdcad
 
In all seriousness, what can Putin do now? (And by that I mean what would he do, not what he should do an give up all lands)

Nuclear keeps getting thrown about but no chance that happens cos it's not just him who aims and pushes the button (OK, he may push the button). There are lots of others who will have some sort of say or would rather shoot him dead than have a situation where they 100% die too

He doesn't seem to have much left to call on in terms of military and no chance for diplomatic resolution where he remains in power for terms he'd accept
 
LARulz said:
In all seriousness, what can Putin do now? (And by that I mean what would he do, not what he should do an give up all lands)

Nuclear keeps getting thrown about but no chance that happens cos it's not just him who aims and pushes the button (OK, he may push the button). There are lots of others who will have some sort of say or would rather shoot him dead than have a situation where they 100% die too

He doesn't seem to have much left to call on in terms of military and no chance for diplomatic resolution where he remains in power for terms he'd accept
Click to expand...
My guess is he'll drag it out as long as possible and wait until the West gets tired of aiding Ukraine. When that scenario doesn't happen I reckon he'll find some excuse to retreat.

I don't think he'll go for full mobilization or a tactical nuke.
 
VorZakone said:
My guess is he'll drag it out as long as possible and wait until the West gets tired of aiding Ukraine. When that scenario doesn't happen I reckon he'll find some excuse to retreat.

I don't think he'll go for full mobilization or a tactical nuke.
Click to expand...

But can he retreat and keep power? They'd be in a worse position than before no matter what and surely his close circle won't accept that because they'd have done it all for nothing in their eyes

Full mobilization would cause chaos and a nuke I still think is just a no go as I can't see whatever the chain is, all agreeing
 
LARulz said:
But can he retreat and keep power? They'd be in a worse position than before no matter what and surely his close circle won't accept that because they'd have done it all for nothing in their eyes

Full mobilization would cause chaos and a nuke I still think is just a no go as I can't see whatever the chain is, all agreeing
Click to expand...
I think he can keep power but he'd have to become more authoritarian than he already is to supress dissent.
 
Raoul said:
Add to this the US is probably also supplying the Ukrainians with ISR (Intelligence, Reconnaissance, and Surveillance), which would mean not only are the Ukrainians getting very sophisticated weapons with pin point precision; they are also getting the specific coordinates of where the Russians are located.
Click to expand...

Not much talked about, but my lay instincts reckon this is a very significant factor in all this.

What we've learned from the very start of this conflict is that US intelligence here is superb. Not just in terms of mapping, but also their ability to intercept russian communications at virtually all levels. They are playing a completely different game than the rest.
 
stefan92 said:
Yes, there aren't many rivers in that area and nothing else at all acting as a geographical hurdle. That's why it's crucial what happened the last few days, the Oskil tiver was blocking Ukraine and now Russia has lost that line of defence completely. Now Ukraine can only be stopped by Russian forces in the North, everything else is pretty irrelevant.

And regarding winter: I doubt that winter weather would really stop Ukraine. A wet and muddy autumn would likely be a bigger problem than frozen grounds in winter.

Meanwhile it looks like Ukraine is advancing everywhere and Russia is truly collapsing. There are even reports that the Russian Bakhmut front is collapsing, which is remarkable as this was the only front where we have seen at least slow Russian progress lately.
Click to expand...
Ukraine have been very clever with their misinformation, perhaps that was another nugget, to influence Russia into thinking there's no rush.
 
VorZakone said:
I don't think he'll go for full mobilization or a tactical nuke.
Click to expand...
There's already no limit on current mobilization, it's "partial" in the same way that this war is a "special military operation".
 
Winter will be extremely advantageous for the Kherson region imo. If the Rusky soldats think its bad now, wait till the cold bites in and they have no winter uniforms, food or water.

Added to that, the rock hard frozen flat terrain means Ukraine armored vehicles don't have to stick to main roads anymore.
 
How does the time factor weigh in all this?

On one hand, Russia is coming apart at the seams. Sanctions are going to reach a crunch point eventually. But time also gives them time to start fixing some of the issues they've struggled with and get their weapons industry back in gear. Can they produce fast enough to keep up six months from now? Will they reach a point where competence starts floating to the top, as the corrupt and incompetent basically fail and die? At what point does the mobilization become more than just cannon fodder?

For Ukraine, I imagine they only improve over time with training and military capacity.
 
B20 said:
Not much talked about, but my lay instincts reckon this is a very significant factor in all this.

What we've learned from the very start of this conflict is that US intelligence here is superb. Not just in terms of mapping, but also their ability to intercept russian communications at virtually all levels. They are playing a completely different game than the rest.
Click to expand...
US intelligence is top notch, but on the operational level a lot of the targets are sourced from partisans and civilians in occupied territories as they provide a lot of real-time data by taking pictures, etc. on russian positions.
 
harms said:
Yeah. And the supposed number of 300k isn't actually written anywhere — only in Shoigyu's words, which obviously can't be trusted.
Click to expand...

Personally think it's "partial" because they physically can't run a full mobilisation. Looks better having an open ended "partial" mob than a full one that is only 1/3 achievable.
 
harms said:
There's already no limit on current mobilization, it's "partial" in the same way that this war is a "special military operation".
Click to expand...
Harms, sorry if you've already been asked (and the rest of the Russians in the thread) but are you a candidate to be movilised?
 
B20 said:
How does the time factor weigh in all this?

On one hand, Russia is coming apart at the seams. Sanctions are going to reach a crunch point eventually. But time also gives them time to start fixing some of the issues they've struggled with and get their weapons industry back in gear. Can they produce fast enough to keep up six months from now? Will they reach a point where competence starts floating to the top, as the corrupt and incompetent basically fail and die? At what point does the mobilization become more than just cannon fodder?

For Ukraine, I imagine they only improve over time with training and military capacity.
Click to expand...
Yeah, what have been slowly deteriorating for years or even decades isn't going to be fixed in a couple of months — especially with the most complicated components of modern warfare (microprocessors and other similar stuff) being unavailable to them due to the sanctions.

Same for the general competence over incompetence — the entire system that Putin was building for 2 decades is built on nepotism and corruption. Fixing it will take drastic reforms and full focus of motivated government apparatus. Russian one is currently rushing towards an abyss at full speed.

edit: and then there's obviously the brain drain.
 
Last edited:
carvajal said:
Harms, sorry if you've already been asked (and the rest of the Russians in the thread) but are you a candidate to be movilised?
Click to expand...
Not unless they change the laws again, my health category excuses me from any military service altogether (thank feck).
 
B20 said:
How does the time factor weigh in all this?

On one hand, Russia is coming apart at the seams. Sanctions are going to reach a crunch point eventually. But time also gives them time to start fixing some of the issues they've struggled with and get their weapons industry back in gear. Can they produce fast enough to keep up six months from now? Will they reach a point where competence starts floating to the top, as the corrupt and incompetent basically fail and die? At what point does the mobilization become more than just cannon fodder?

For Ukraine, I imagine they only improve over time with training and military capacity.
Click to expand...
Time is against Russia. They won't be able to improve their weapons industry much, and there won't be any competence left after lots of the smarter men left the country already.
 
Beans said:
Would you if you went through what he's gone through? I might be wrong, but you might be inspired to do what you can to speed the recovery process, assuming there is one.

If Russia gets pushed back to their border i expect they'll continue to try to get back in for as long as Putin lives. It would prevent Ukraine from joining the EU at least.
Click to expand...

To be honest, i think he should be president at the beginning of the recovery using the gravitas collected in the conflict and thats it.

IMHO, i believe that the skills for leading at war not always works for day to day politics but more important, his extreme high popularity due to this extreme unique event would make him make mistakes and no one would opose him when something would go wrong because he would be an alive historical figure equaly to churchill for ukranians
 
harms said:
There's already no limit on current mobilization, it's "partial" in the same way that this war is a "special military operation".
Click to expand...
I have read the same thing.

Zeihan's comment on the mobilization is that Russia is already struggling with the logistics of supplying their current forces, and that logistics will be the limiting factor in how effective they are. He sees these new troops as essentially untrained and poorly armed, and unable to stop Ukrainian advances in the short term. How does that sound to you?

A big unknown is what percentage of Russian equipment is actually functional.

4bars said:
To be honest, i think he should be president at the beginning of the recovery using the gravitas collected in the conflict and thats it.

IMHO, i believe that the skills for leading at war not always works for day to day politics but more important, his extreme high popularity due to this extreme unique event would make him make mistakes and no one would opose him when something would go wrong because he would be an alive historical figure equaly to churchill for ukranians
Click to expand...
Yes, his goodwill would emphatically lubricate the political process and help draw investment as they'll see him as a stable leader. If he does make mistakes people will be happy to sweep them under the carpet.

It's worth mentioning he was unpopular before the war, I know nothing about all that, perhaps a seed of doubt could be planted from those struggles. But I'm hopeful, the world badly needs authentic leaders who will actually represent their voters instead of their donors.
 
Beans said:
I have read the same thing.

Zeihan's comment on the mobilization is that Russia is already struggling with the logistics of supplying their current forces, and that logistics will be the limiting factor in how effective they are. He sees these new troops as essentially untrained and poorly armed, and unable to stop Ukrainian advances in the short term.

A big unknown is what percentage of Russian equipment is actually functional. I saw a tweet supposedly from a mechanic calling for Russia to shut down their air force as their inability to get parts had prevented necessary
Click to expand...
Yeah, I was replying to the idea that Putin won't dare to enforce full mobilization — he already did, he just calls it differently (a policy that had worked well for him so far).
He'll get the manpower but whenever it's going to transfer into any military success is a huge, huge question.
 
Beans said:
Which geographical hurdles are those? Rivers? It’s pretty flat and open in eastern Ukraine as I understand it.

One Ukraine military leader said that progress would be mostly halted by winter.
Click to expand...
Or it could go pretty fast, the Ukrainian army is more than likely going to be kitted out in proper winter gear, the Russian will be frozen sitting ducks, with military vehicles that went cheap on winter tiers.
 
harms said:
Yeah, I was replying to the idea that Putin won't dare to enforce full mobilization — he already did, he just calls it differently (a policy that had worked well for him so far).
He'll get the manpower but whenever it's going to transfer into any military success is a huge, huge question.
Click to expand...
Sorry I forgot that incomplete response was still in the box when I responded to the other comment, I've edited it slightly, I couldn't find that tweet about the mechanic.
 
B20 said:
Not much talked about, but my lay instincts reckon this is a very significant factor in all this.

What we've learned from the very start of this conflict is that US intelligence here is superb. Not just in terms of mapping, but also their ability to intercept russian communications at virtually all levels. They are playing a completely different game than the rest.
Click to expand...

I think that the recon/intel support provided by OTAN (mainly the US) is almost as important as the weapons that are sent. Western spy satellite are way, way more efficient than russians' and that's only the "known" technologies. The ukrainian army seems to know exactly where to go and where russian weak spots are. I'm almost certain that NATO can pretty much account for any important troop movement on the ground. Spy satellites coupled with IA could do that (on top of com interception).
 
You must log in or register to reply here.