Israel isn't Ukraine in this situation, but I see what you mean.Ask Israel how to deal with that kind of situation. That scenario would be more or less the same than what Israel is living under.
Israel isn't Ukraine in this situation, but I see what you mean.Ask Israel how to deal with that kind of situation. That scenario would be more or less the same than what Israel is living under.
This makes sense. So fighter jets in 6 months thenYou know the famous experiment about the frog in slowly heating water who just stays there until he dies. This is basically the same, slowly increasing support so that Russia doesn't do anything really stupid but just lives with it.
Yes, living under constant threat of missile attacks. Surely would be for different reasons and yes, Ukraine is much bigger and the Russian missiles much more capable, but the basic idea is the same.Israel isn't Ukraine in this situation, but I see what you mean.
Might be. For now the now confirmed delivery of the GLSDB for the M142/M270 is the next important capability increase for Ukraine. Looking at its longer range (150km instead of 90km, effectively enabling hits roughly 130km instead of 70km deep into Russian territory) it will push back Russian logistics bases much deeper and will quite effectively lower the amount of supplies the Russians can bring to the front line (assuming they keep using the same number of trucks as they currently do, and an increase seems difficult considering the old garbage they already have to use).This makes sense. So fighter jets in 6 months then
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If that happened Putin would be removed and new Russian leadership would realize it could not regain the territory so it wouldn't look to continue an unwinnable war started by the now humiliated/dead Putin.Thats what I had been thinking till Ukraine regain so much territory in september
Lets suppose that Ukraine conquers all territory Crimea included. Victory, great. Lets say that russia just dedicates his days bombing Ukraine from its borders as they are virtually untouchable in their homeland
What Ukraine/the West will do in that case?
I am sorry but no. You can't compare Hamas attack capabilities with Russian attack capabilities, range and power and all the resources behind. simply notYes, living under constant threat of missile attacks. Surely would be for different reasons and yes, Ukraine is much bigger and the Russian missiles much more capable, but the basic idea is the same.
Sure, this hipotetical situation could last till putin dies as excuse...but still, Ukraine could be under serious fire for more than a decade even winning the warIf that happened Putin would be removed and new Russian leadership would realize it could not regain the territory so it wouldn't look to continue an unwinnable war started by the now humiliated/dead Putin.
If it did then the black sea is unusable for Russian shipping as the anti ship missile Ukraine would place in Crimea plus the aircraft based there would be able to sink Russian ships at will.
Has this come as a surprise or something?
Any chance that if this wasn’t Russia, it was a mercenary operation at the behest of a person or organisation that stood to gain a lot of money from inflating oil prices further?Tweet
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Technically for sure. I know that many media made it look like this was some kind of super complicated operation that could only be performed by sinister secret services with access to amazing technology, but in fact a relatively small boat and two or three experienced divers are all you actually need in that area of the Baltic Sea. Keep in mind it is more like an oversized lake than a true sea.Any chance that if this wasn’t Russia, it was a mercenary operation at the behest of a person or organisation that stood to gain a lot of money from inflating oil prices further?
Everyone has an opinion. On point c, I've seen other suggestions that Ukraine is just choosing not to commit much of its forces, saving as much as they can for whenever their next planned offensive is. They only need to hold the lines right now. The tank battalions they built up in the Zaporizhzhia have barely been seen on the front lines. I don't expect that to be because of their state of repair or whatever, Russia alone has supplied them with practically unlimited spare parts.I found 2 Italian youtube channels who go in pretty detail about what's going on in Ukraine. Their names are Parabellum and Ivan Grieco. Basically
a- Russia is on the offensive, the pressure will increase significantly in Spring
b- Russia is using tactics fresh from WW1. They are first throwing the prisoners as cannon fodder to tire the Ukrainians only to then swarm them with their superior (in terms of numbers) army
c- Ukraine tanks are on their last legs.
d- the tanks initiative is basically useless. They are too few and they will come to service too late
e- Russia will capture the Donbas but will run of steam afterwards.
Please don't shoot the messenger
I found 2 Italian youtube channels who go in pretty detail about what's going on in Ukraine. Their names are Parabellum and Ivan Grieco. Basically
a- Russia is on the offensive, the pressure will increase significantly in Spring
b- Russia is using tactics fresh from WW1. They are first throwing the prisoners as cannon fodder to tire the Ukrainians only to then swarm them with their superior (in terms of numbers) army
c- Ukraine tanks are on their last legs.
d- the tanks initiative is basically useless. They are too few and they will come to service too late
e- Russia will capture the Donbas but will run of steam afterwards.
Please don't shoot the messenger
Its common for Italians to give non Italian names. Not everyone in Italy is called Vito, Giovanni and Pietro. Ivan Grieco is the youtube channel owner and he tend to invite experts such as general Paolo Capitini who even served in the NATO and Mirco Campochiari who is an expert in military history. I believe that the latter has strong Polish origins (mother I think). He took some Italian Z sympathisers for some wild accusations thrown towards his direction (the usual neo nazi argument) and is planning to send any proceedings to Ukrainian NGOs to piss them offEveryone has an opinion. On point c, I've seen other suggestions that Ukraine is just choosing not to commit much of its forces, saving as much as they can for whenever their next planned offensive is. They only need to hold the lines right now. The tank battalions they built up in the Zaporizhzhia have barely been seen on the front lines. I don't expect that to be because of their state of repair or whatever, Russian alone has supplied them with practically unlimited spare parts.
d- Just sounds like coping to me, probably by 'Ivan' the Italian? . 100+ modern MBT's plus all the Bradley, Marder, Stryker, etc etc, are going to arrive in the first wave. Expected to be at the end of next month. What the feck is that going to be too late for? Russia has gained literally nothing in the last 6 months of their offensives, unless you count the tiny village of Soledar as some sort of gain.
I've never heard of this guy, but I don't think he's pro-Russian judging by this google-translated Tweet of his:Everyone has an opinion. On point c, I've seen other suggestions that Ukraine is just choosing not to commit much of its forces, saving as much as they can for whenever their next planned offensive is. They only need to hold the lines right now. The tank battalions they built up in the Zaporizhzhia have barely been seen on the front lines. I don't expect that to be because of their state of repair or whatever, Russia alone has supplied them with practically unlimited spare parts.
d- Just sounds like coping to me, probably by 'Ivan' the Italian? . 100+ modern MBT's plus all the Bradley, Marder, Stryker, etc etc, are going to arrive in the first wave. Expected to be at the end of next month. What the feck is that going to be too late for? Russia has gained literally nothing in the last 6 months of their offensives, unless you count the tiny village of Soledar as some sort of gain.
In the end, Germany agreed to authorize the sending of Leopard tanks to Ukraine. So much for the pacifists and putinists who were already uncorking bottles of sparkling wine. Always on the side of the attacked, always on the side of Ukraine!
RPGs are relatively cheap to produce, no need for suicide bombs. However infantery attacks of course are very risky.When the Russian army will run out of functioning armored vehicles while Ukraine will receive the new MBTs, what will the former do next? Throwing their troops with suicide vests at tanks like the Imperial Japanese Army at Khalkhin Gol (think of the 2011 Korean movie titled My Way)? Just crazy to even think about it.
Do RPGs do much against modern tanks? Not much better than a suicide vest if you have to find the exact angle and get lucky.RPGs are relatively cheap to produce, no need for suicide bombs. However infantery attacks of course are very risky.
And yes in general there can already be seen an uptake in infantery attacks and a decrease in mechanized/armoured attacks.
Yes I know IFV's are not MBT's, some Bradley's have already arrived however, judging by the boasts of US Logistics. The 100 I refer to is just Leopards and the Challengers, expected around the end of March, though not sure what that will translate to in terms of being in active use.Its common for Italians to give non Italian names. Not everyone in Italy is called Vito, Giovanni and Pietro. Ivan Grieco is the youtube channel owner and he tend to invite experts such as general Paolo Capitini who even served in the NATO and Mirco Campochiari who is an expert in military history. I believe that the latter has strong Polish origins (mother I think). He took some Italian Z sympathisers for some wild accusations thrown towards his direction (the usual neo nazi argument) and is planning to send any proceedings to Ukrainian NGOs to piss them off
The Bradley and the Marders are not MBTs. The Challenger 2, the Leopards and the Abrams are. The Leopards are set to be functional in maybe 3 months time (the earliest) due to logistics and training. The latter might even take a year. Also note that out of the 341 tanks, 99 of them are T74s from Morocco and another 30 are T72 from Poland
Check the video on 2:22
Russia have 3300 tanks. They have also10k in storage in the West. They might be of dubious quality (ie age and condition) but they are good for scavenging. They are also in a wartime production and can produce 200 tanks a year (if I remember well but it could be even more) Ukraine currently rely on old soviet tanks who are significantly inferior to the average Russian tankRussia are also running very low on tanks, hence why they're bringing over ww2 tanks. It's ultimately a stalemate right now, although Russia are far more willing to throw their soldiers into suicide missions.
Against those delivered to Ukraine yes.Do RPGs do much against modern tanks? Not much better than a suicide vest if you have to find the exact angle and get lucky.
As said I am only relaying the message from those sites which are the most detailed I fount. They criticise when they feel that criticism is due (especially the politics surrounding the Leopard-Abrams farce) but I can guarantee that they are not pro Z. In fact Mirco Campociari had taken Italian pro Z supporters to court for calling him Neo Nazi while General Capitini is a decorated general who even worked with NATO.Yes I know IFV's are not MBT's, some Bradley's have already arrived however, judging by the boasts of US Logistics. The 100 I refer to is just Leopards and the Challengers, expected around the end of March, though not sure what that will translate to in terms of being in active use.
I'm much less worried that some people, it seems, with the current lack of activity on the Ukrainian side and Russia's 'Offensives'. To me, Russia appear more and more impotent every day that goes by. Boggles the mind how little they've achieved really... Behind the front lines do they ever do any damage at all to Ukraine's military equipment and infrastructure? All this devastating long range missile arsenal Russia wields and from a strategic point of view they've used it to achieve absolutely nothing? Someone please correct me if I'm wrong, it sounds too ridiculous to be true. Ukraine can keep the bulk of its forces out of fire range and still hold the likes of Bakhmut and Vuhledar.
We've been here before, Ukraine is patient and there is little point them launching any major operations now, knowing their capabilities will be higher once the upgraded equipment arrives. Activity will most likely depend on GLSDB delivery now, they will wait for those.
Sorry for blindly accusing the guy of being pro-russian. Saying western tanks will be in-effective and 'too late'!? just sounds like a very odd pro-russian coping type opinion to me.
Ukraine will never ever accept Crimea to be part of Russia. Crimea is vitally important to them and they will take it back.Russia have 3300 tanks. They have also10k in storage in the West. They might be of dubious quality (ie age and condition) but they are good for scavenging. They are also in a wartime production and can produce 200 tanks a year (if I remember well but it could be even more) Ukraine currently rely on old soviet tanks who are significantly inferior to the average Russian tank
However not everything is doom and gloom
a- Russia seem to be struggling with missiles. Hence why the production is reducing
b- Many on that site seems wondering why Ukraine is obsessed with tanks as they believe that they need long range missiles more, certain types of drones and planes more
c- Russia's offensive will still not be able to invade all of Ukraine. It will probably be enough to capture the Donbas
Bottom line of the story is this
a- Russia is taking the war very seriously. In fact they had switched to wartime production. NATO is not. Our 'peace time production' is laughable thus there is a real concern that we'll run out of help we can provide
b- Crimea is Russia's real red line. If lost then Putin might go nuclear. It might also cost his job (and life)
c- No one will invest in rebuilding Ukraine unless he's got solid assurances that Ukraine is safe. Putin's words are worth nothing so this assurance must come from the West.
d- They believe that the typical 'all in' strategy the US love to use should be reintroduced. Basically Nato should arm Ukraine to the teeth, with everything it needs and with huge quantities. These will allow Ukraine to give Russia a swift and proper beating with the latter lacking the time to react. Once they reach Crimea's door and with no chance of Russia retaining it then Putin will be forced to come to the negotiating table. At that point its suggested that Zelensky would push Putin to retreat his troops and give his consent for Ukraine to join NATO/EU in exchange of the Ukrainians accepting Crimea as part of Russia.
One of the largest coal mines there. It simply must hold.Tweet
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Said this weeks ago and told that I was listening to the Russian propaganda or some shit.
Well, most of us know full well that more deaths means nothing to Kremlin, while Ukraine are trying to save as many of their own as they can. I do expect Russia to make some slight progress this month, however, I fully expect some major counter offensive by the yellow blues in April. Longer range missiles will help enormously.Said this weeks ago and told that I was listening to the Russian propaganda or some shit.
Even the Russian guy here said the Russians could not escalate more when I said they could by using more bodies. They may be ill equipped and poorly trained but so are most of the UA troops at the moment as well.
I get it that some people want the UA to win and refuse to look at the battle field news rationlly but It's really concerning for the UA in the next few weeks.
You have also been saying that Bahkmut is falling for months now, and it's still there. There is no source for UA troops being ill equipped and poorly trained, but you opt to sell it as a fact anyway.Said this weeks ago and told that I was listening to the Russian propaganda or some shit.
Even the Russian guy here said the Russians could not escalate more when I said they could by using more bodies. They may be ill equipped and poorly trained but so are most of the UA troops at the moment as well.
I get it that some people want the UA to win and refuse to look at the battle field news rationlly but It's really concerning for the UA in the next few weeks.