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I think time is more critical for UKR than Russia. This supposed UAF offensive in the spring or whenever that happens will probably have an impact on how this war will go, obviously. If they can kick the Russians out of a lot of areas in the east, it will look good for UAF. Otherwise, it would probably not end well for UKR in terms of supplies, manpower, and, of course, economy. People keep talking about how Russian industries are shrinking while forgetting that the UKR needs to sort out its own economy to keep on defending.What's the downsight to Putin getting this footage, though? Right now it doesn't seem as if a lack of domestic support is a problem for him. It is unlikely the Russian population will act anytime soon and if they do it is because the sanctions take their toll on them or because they lose their loved ones on the battle field, not because they think Russia as a state is losing a war.
Russia might have learned a thing or two from its mistakes but at least my impression is that they're still incredibly relentless with the lifes of their own soldiers, they're still fighting a war of attrition and it is questionable how long they can keep that up. A lot probably depends on whether China is going to support them with ammunition and weapons which could prolong the war significantly.
It's also worth mentioning that time is still on Ukraine's side, isn't it? At least as long as the NATO is supplying Ukraine. Economically, this war is much more costly to Russia than it is to the NATO. They aren't going to recover from the setback they'll have to endure. Core industries shrinking 40% within less than a year - especially in a country so reliant on a few economic sectors - is really bad. Especially when it comes hand in hand with losing up to 200k young males that would probably be part of the spine of their working class.
Good for Serbia.The Serbian president just gave a massive FU to a bunch of his pro-Putin countrymen there.
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https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/22/economy/china-russia-economic-ties-ukraine-intl-hnk/index.htmlIn the year since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Moscow has been hit by unprecedented Western sanctions and shut out of much of the global economy.
But China, which has declared “no limits” to its friendship with its northern neighbor, has thrown the Kremlin an economic lifeline, tempering the impact of its banishment from the global financial system
https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/01/business/russia-oil-shadow-fleet/index.htmlRussian oil is still finding its way to buyers around the world. But even those who spend their days tracking its movement across oceans struggle to work out exactly who is ferrying it.
As Western sanctions against Russia have escalated over its invasion of Ukraine, more ships have joined an existing fleet of mysterious tankers, ready to facilitate Russia’s oil exports.
Industry insiders estimate the size of that “shadow” fleet at roughly 600 vessels, or about 10% of the global number of large tankers. And numbers continue to climb.
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First day of spring in in like 3 weeks. Weird Russkies.Tweet
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I think it was a huge mistake by the Russians to bank on this happening. It’s also very fortunate for us that it didn’t. If the rest of Europe had had to choose between warming its citizens and powering its industry this winter, I think we’d see huge pressure to normalise relations. As it is we’ve now got 6-8 months of relatively good weather to hopefully drop the price of oil and gas and build up a reserve for the next one.First day of spring in in like 3 weeks. Weird Russkies.
Yeah smells like just another false flag operation like the crimean bridge to justify inhumane actions in Ukraine. Ukraine gets nothing out of it attacking a poor village. But Putin gets his "Ukraine are terrorists" narrative going which is his foundation for civilian terror in Ukraine and support at home. This goes 200 years back to the tsar who set Moscow on fire and told his people Napoleon did it. It's in their veins.
Yeah, video of those 2 with a flag and yellow stripes so nobody cant miss them looks legit.Yeah smells like just another false flag operation like the crimean bridge to justify inhumane actions in Ukraine. Ukraine gets nothing out of it attacking a poor village. But Putin gets his "Ukraine are terrorists" narrative going which is his foundation for civilian terror in Ukraine and support at home. This goes 200 years back to the tsar who set Moscow on fire and told his people Napoleon did it. It's in their veins.
edit: I don't doubt there are partisan groups in Russia working, that's why we saw an unusual amount of fires last year in russia. But those are not dumb enough to attack some meaningless villages and even make photos for Social Media for it.
The whole thing is just very weird.Yeah smells like just another false flag operation like the crimean bridge to justify inhumane actions in Ukraine. Ukraine gets nothing out of it attacking a poor village. But Putin gets his "Ukraine are terrorists" narrative going which is his foundation for civilian terror in Ukraine and support at home. This goes 200 years back to the tsar who set Moscow on fire and told his people Napoleon did it. It's in their veins.
edit: I don't doubt there are partisan groups in Russia working, that's why we saw an unusual amount of fires last year in russia. But those are not dumb enough to attack some meaningless villages and even make photos for Social Media for it.
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In follow-up responses, it seems that it was impacting mostly data over cell service, rather than home internet.I don’t use it as my main one but I’ve just checked and any of the three ExpressVPN servers that I’ve tried work without any issues.
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Yeah, I've seen it and I've tried it with mobile too (I have the same operator as the twitter guy). To be fair expressVPN does their fair share of work to try and stay available so maybe they've switched something between his tweet and my check.In follow-up responses, it seems that it was impacting mostly data over cell service, rather than home internet.
Ehm, was the crimean bridge bombing a false flag operation? Did I miss something?Yeah smells like just another false flag operation like the crimean bridge
No way. If that was the case it would be the most stupid false flag operation in history. The destruction of the bridge has been extremly problematic for Russia and their ability to supply the troops in Crimea and southern Ukraine.Ehm, was the crimean bridge bombing a false flag operation? Did I miss something?
There's a tendency I think to see false flags everywhere when it concerns Russia. Good to just wait for more info.No way. If that was the case it would be the most stupid false flag operation in history. The destruction of the bridge has been extremly problematic for Russia and their ability to supply the troops in Crimea and southern Ukraine.
We owe him so much, don't we? Such a wise and kind man.
At this point, I don't think these propagandist videos are worth posting anymore given that they don't really add anything to the thread.We owe him so much, don't we? Such a wise and kind man.
I disagree. I think it's good to know what's being said on Russian state tv, get a feeling of what's on their mind.At this point, I don't think these propagandist videos are worth posting anymore given that they don't really add anything to the thread.
Nothing has changed from what has been said on state TV from day one. Its getting to be gratuitous spam.I disagree. I think it's good to know what's being said on Russian state tv, get a feeling of what's on their mind.
I don't think it was a false flag at all. The Ukrainians have been sinking ships, attacking bridges, using drones to attack sites within Russia for most of the war.Yeah smells like just another false flag operation like the crimean bridge to justify inhumane actions in Ukraine. Ukraine gets nothing out of it attacking a poor village. But Putin gets his "Ukraine are terrorists" narrative going which is his foundation for civilian terror in Ukraine and support at home. This goes 200 years back to the tsar who set Moscow on fire and told his people Napoleon did it. It's in their veins.
edit: I don't doubt there are partisan groups in Russia working, that's why we saw an unusual amount of fires last year in russia. But those are not dumb enough to attack some meaningless villages and even make photos for Social Media for it.
It is mind blowing there are people out there who actually believe this balatantly obvious propaganda nonsense. There's not even nuance to it, it is just obvious and clumsy manipulation.
China and India have been propping Putin him. His demise would've been expedited without their support imo.China is helping to prop up the Russian economy. Here’s how
https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/22/economy/china-russia-economic-ties-ukraine-intl-hnk/index.html
A mysterious fleet is helping Russia ship oil around the world. And it’s growing
https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/01/business/russia-oil-shadow-fleet/index.html
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As we've seen in Iran and a few other places, its nearly impossible for governments to completely cut their public off from outside information. Even uber-totalitarian North Korea can't do it, since South Koreans are sending balloons into the country with news from the outside. The Russians, who are pretty tech savvy, would have devised all sorts of ways to get around any VPN blocks.In follow-up responses, it seems that it was impacting mostly data over cell service, rather than home internet.
I think they've rebuilt the damage pretty quickly, so I wouldn't speak about strategic consequences but it was always more of a symbolic gesture (and a heck of a symbolic gesture at that — Putin & the goons were fuming).No way. If that was the case it would be the most stupid false flag operation in history. The destruction of the bridge has been extremly problematic for Russia and their ability to supply the troops in Crimea and southern Ukraine.
I've missed most of it as I wasn't near the news today. What a circus.
Few believe it, even in Russia. The distinction between 'Pravda' and 'Istina' (both meaning 'truth') perhaps illustrates the post-soviet nihilism concerning truth. 'Pravda' already stood for subjective truth, with moral and legal tones (the ancient kievan rus legal code was called 'pravda'), implying norms of norms and values for behaviour. Then of course you have the broadsheet Pravda, which was the communist propaganda organ of choice throughout the soviet period. In contrast to Istrida, which has more a connnotation of 'objective truth'. Pravda has been stretched to the point of torture for at least a century in Russia by now.It is mind blowing there are people out there who actually believe this balatantly obvious propaganda nonsense. There's not even nuance to it, it is just obvious and clumsy manipulation.
Ehm, was the crimean bridge bombing a false flag operation? Did I miss something?
I don't think it was a false flag at all. The Ukrainians have been sinking ships, attacking bridges, using drones to attack sites within Russia for most of the war.
In my opinion it was. I always ask myself who benefits more if we don't know the truth and for me it's clearly Russia.No way. If that was the case it would be the most stupid false flag operation in history. The destruction of the bridge has been extremly problematic for Russia and their ability to supply the troops in Crimea and southern Ukraine.
The train track closer to the highway has still not been repaired and the other one is only open to lighter passanger trains, if I'm not mistaken. It was and to some point still is a major bottle neck for Russian logistics going to Crimea and Souther Ukraine. There is only one other railway that goes From Russian controlled areas into Southern Ukraine and Crimea and that line runs only 18km from Vuhledar, this is most likely why the Russians are so desperate to capture the city and push Ukrainian artillery further away from the railway line.In my opinion it was. I always ask myself who benefits more if we don't know the truth and for me it's clearly Russia.
The bridge was still usable after the attack. One lane got destroyed and the train track got damaged. The cars used just the other lane for the time being and the train tracks were repaired pretty quick if I remember correctly. Further, they scan and inspect every truck driving on that bridge.
That leaves a boat? Could be, but pretty unlikely in my opinion, because it had to go a long way around crimea unnoticed and because only one lane collapsed and the other had no damage at all, which makes a truck bomb much more likely. And who benefited most from that attack? Russia of course, because soon after they started their missile terror right before the winter as an answer to that bridge attack. A pretty good trade for a half usable bridge for a few months in my opinion. I think that incident was needed by Putin to justify his civilian terror. He chose a prestige object worth mentioning, but did not hit it that hard for it to become a real problem.