Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

VorZakone

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I think if something seriously devastating was gonna happen tomorrow, we'd have heard by now from more authoritative Western sources.
 

dove

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Air defences active in Kerch, Crimea. It's where the bridge connecting with mainland Russia starts.

 

NicolaSacco

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These targeted attacks are really heart-warming stuff. I’d genuinely love to know the quantity of Russian stockpiles of ammunition that have been hit recently. Explosions like that, especially seen from such a significant distance, would surely involve destroying tens of thousands (even hundreds of thousands, a million?) munitions. They are really successfully hitting the Russian army in the exact areas they can’t afford to be hit.
 

the hea

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There seems to be a lot of things happening tonight.

The ammunition storage in Timonovo blowing up (mentioned above).
AA systems active over the Kerch bridge.
Big strike in Nova Kakhovka with at least ten loud explosions.
Explosion outside Staryj Oskol, Russia 100km from the Ukrainian border.
Reports of explosions at the Belbek airbase outside Sevastopol.
 

RedDevilQuebecois

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NicolaSacco said:
These targeted attacks are really heart-warming stuff. I’d genuinely love to know the quantity of Russian stockpiles of ammunition that have been hit recently. Explosions like that, especially seen from such a significant distance, would surely involve destroying tens of thousands (even hundreds of thousands, a million?) munitions. They are really successfully hitting the Russian army in the exact areas they can’t afford to be hit.
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That's a good question. Sometimes, I wonder if Russian troops would end up so depleted in ammo because of those attacks that the only options they have left is either desertion/retreat or a banzai charge.
 

NicolaSacco

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RedDevilQuebecois said:
That's a good question. Sometimes, I wonder if Russian troops would end up so depleted in ammo because of those attacks that the only options they have left is either desertion/retreat or a banzai charge.
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Yeah, I’d agree. Difficult to project outcomes from my (admittedly ignorant) perspective, but can you realistically see some kind of charge of the light brigade scenario? It’s difficult to believe that your average Russian soldier is so invested in this war, on foreign territory, that they’ll lay down their life for it. I think we’re more likely to see a disorganised retreat which will be just about plausibly deniable, and not be admitted by the Kremlin.
 

VorZakone

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Germany should allow the blocked Nord Stream 2 pipeline to begin pumping Russian natural gas so "people do not have to freeze in winter and that our industry does not suffer serious damage,” Wolfgang Kubicki, vice president of the German parliament, said Friday.

His comments prompted a fierce response from Kyiv, where Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said "addiction to Russian gas kills." The pipeline is completed, but Berlin in late February refused to allow it to go online in reaction to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Kubicki, a member of Finance Minister Christian Lindner’s Free Democrats (FDP), called for activating the pipeline “as soon as possible” to fill gas storages ahead of winter.

He said there is “no sound reason not to open Nord Stream 2," because Germany is already getting gas through the older Russia-to-Germany Nord Stream pipeline. Getting "gas from Nord Stream 2 is no more immoral than from Nord Stream 1. It's just a different pipe," he said.
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https://www.politico.eu/article/vic...iament-calls-for-activation-of-nord-stream-2/
 

VorZakone

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In February there was also an article on FSB polls.

While a minority of Ukrainians surveyed by the FSB said they would not defend Ukraine, this population was disproportionately concentrated in the south and east of the country.

Furthermore, among those who said they would not fight, around half indicated that in the event of war they would ‘adapt and survive’, suggesting that large parts of the population in the south and east of Ukraine would be open to complying with the occupation authorities if they could provide services.
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https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/ukraine-through-russias-eyes
 

Gehrman

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It seems kind of weird that western nations only seem to want give Ukraine enough aid for a standstill rather than give them what they need to route the Russian forces before the end of the year. But of course nothing comes for free.
 

Spark

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Gehrman said:
It seems kind of weird that western nations only seem to want give Ukraine enough aid for a standstill rather than give them what they need to route the Russian forces before the end of the year. But of course nothing comes for free.
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Well nothing is unanimous in Western nations, for everyone arguing for no fly zones there are others arguing against any weapons at all. Of course more should be done, but it’s impressive that the response has been as great as it actually has. I’m sure Putin was expecting a far bigger rift.

As for the standstill, I think it’s slowing down but people are generally impatient. It’s not exactly moving to a stalemate, as all (available, admittedly potentially bias) intelligence suggests the gradual degradation of the Russian army, while Ukraine is being constantly resupplied and troops being trained monthly by NATO. Yes more can come faster and Ukraine will constantly lobby for more, but to suggest their only getting enough for a standstill is incorrect in my opinion.
 

Sir Matt

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Apparently she worked for Prigozhin in his influence campaign arm. She was sanctioned by the US.

 
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