Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

RedDevilQuebecois

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we already know what happens when we topple one dictator with no strategy in place. iraq is a good example.
Oh please.

Japan had little to no history of Western-style parliamentary politics prior to 1947. Shoguns, total imperial monarchy and military leadership were the thing before 1947, and yet they found a way through since. My point is that Russia will have to go through the same learning curve if they want to avoid the post-Soviet pitfalls in the future.
 

entropy

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Oh please.

Japan had little to no history of Western-style parliamentary politics prior to 1947. Shoguns, total imperial monarchy and military leadership were the thing before 1947, and yet they found a way through since. My point is that Russia will have to go through the same learning curve if they want to avoid the post-Soviet pitfalls in the future.
A regime change could also lead to another dictator. It's wild to me how everyone seems so sold on regime change. The guy replacing Putin won't be some benevolent dove, he could be far worse. Again, leading to more innocent deaths.
 

phelans shorts

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A regime change could also lead to another dictator. It's wild to me how everyone seems so sold on regime change. The guy replacing Putin won't be some benevolent dove, he could be far worse. Again, leading to more innocent deaths.
And if you give concessions to Putin him/his successor will be more emboldened to take the rest of Ukraine. Or Moldova. Or Estonia. Or Latvia.

What you cede to them to “keep peace” then?
 

TwoSheds

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A regime change could also lead to another dictator. It's wild to me how everyone seems so sold on regime change. The guy replacing Putin won't be some benevolent dove, he could be far worse. Again, leading to more innocent deaths.
This is the same logic that sees weird, embittered people in the UK vote Tory despite saying how terrible they are because "they're all the same politicians". Well we'll never get to find out will we Norman if you always vote for the same ones?
 

Frosty

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Ukraine, a democratic state, wante to resist an invasion. They have asked for our help against a dictatorial regime that is bent on genocide, the deliberate targeting of civilians and the use of chemical weapons.

If we are not prepared to create a No Fly Zone then the least Western democracies can do is to give that democracy the tools and equipment it needs to resist being destroyed.

I honestly don't even think this should be a point of disagreement between European socialists and conversatives. It transcends partisan politics.
 

Sir Matt

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We should invite Mearshimer to the CAF so he can post in the whataboutism thread.
I'm betting he's one of those old professors who doesn't even use email.

There are some people who take a position and after that, they cannot change that position. Ever. No matter what new evidence, they will never move from their initial position.

We have seen this many times in the past, for example with religious cults who predicted a specific day for the end of the world. After this end of the world did not happen, many abandoned the cult, but not all. Some found "explanations" and became even more fervent.
When all you have is a hammer [blaming the US], everything looks like a nail.... It's quite astounding how blind he is to the fact that both Ukraine and Russia have agency in this war. It's especially an issue with people who are focused on theory since they get so far up their own asses that they can't see anything else.
 

Carolina Red

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So should Ukraine just surrender their land to end the war? Give up their own people so we can see Bucha on an industrial scale?
Exactly. There’s no guarantee a peace deal will stop innocent folks being killed. A peace deal that results in Russian control of Ukrainian territory could actually lead to the exact opposite due to ethnic cleansing / genocide by the Russians.
 

frostbite

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A regime change could also lead to another dictator. It's wild to me how everyone seems so sold on regime change. The guy replacing Putin won't be some benevolent dove, he could be far worse. Again, leading to more innocent deaths.
We don't know if it will lead to a new dictator. We are not the ones who will decide that, the Russians will decide (I mean *some* Russians, not all of them).

But even if we assume it leads to a new dictator, the new guy will stop the war and blame everything on Putin. That's what usually happens. However, Putin cannot stop the war and blame someone else. The only way Putin will stop is if he wins. (And then he will probably move many Ukrainians to Siberia, replacing them with other Russians, that's what past history predicts. )
 
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nimic

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And I'm all out of bubblegum.
A regime change could also lead to another dictator. It's wild to me how everyone seems so sold on regime change. The guy replacing Putin won't be some benevolent dove, he could be far worse. Again, leading to more innocent deaths.
A regime change could lead to many things, but what it absolutely won't lead to is a person with as much control as Putin, at least not for many years. And that will tend to produce more favourable results for Ukraine and the rest of the world (and Russia).
 

TwoSheds

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Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer says he went to the Russian capital to confront Putin with the facts, but didn't leave with a positive impression.

"If you're asking me whether I am optimistic or pessimistic, I'm rather pessimistic," he said, adding there was "little interest" on the Russian side about a direct meting between Mr Putin and the Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky.

For his part, President Zelensky was asked whether he would hand over any part of Ukraine to Russia. He said he was "not ready" for that, but accepted it would be part of any discussion.
I for one am shocked that a Western country pushing Russia for peace hasn't achieved anything.
 

TwoSheds

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If he used the opportunity to expose Putin to a nerve agent it will start to make a lot more sense.
More likely the other way round I would think. Austria is "neutral" don't forget. :rolleyes:
 

Denis79

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Exactly. There’s no guarantee a peace deal will stop innocent folks being killed. A peace deal that results in Russian control of Ukrainian territory could actually lead to the exact opposite due to ethnic cleansing / genocide by the Russians.
Whatever the outcome in this war I'm 100% sure that peace-keeping forces will be a part of of any peace agreement. I can't see the Ukraine signing any peace deal without it.
 

Simbo

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Seems to be a small use, if true, testing the waters.

 

Carolina Red

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Whatever the outcome in this war I'm 100% sure that peace-keeping forces will be a part of of any peace agreement. I can't see the Ukraine signing any peace deal without it.
That’s still not really a guarantee of anything I mentioned. History is full of massacres happening despite peacekeepers being in place.
 

Wibble

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the us should be pushing for peace talks. not crippling russian economy which does barely anything to end this war.
What makes you think sanctions are doing nothing? And particularly will do nothing in the medium//long term?

The US aren't stopping peace talks but they certainly won't be pushing for a peace deal that is unacceptable to Ukraine. Why would they?

Putin and his regime are a severe danger to the world and regime change is essential no matter how long it takes. If the leader changes to someone as bad or worse then that isn't regime change and the sanctions can remain.

And you still haven't answered what you think should be conceeded by Ukraine in peace talks.
 
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Denis79

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That’s still not really a guarantee of anything I mentioned. History is full of massacres happening despite peacekeepers being in place.
No idea what has to be done but when the peace comes it has to be controlled somehow. Sadly I don't see this war end in a 'total' victory for Ukraine and the Russians leaving completely.
 

GlastonSpur

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Whatever the outcome in this war I'm 100% sure that peace-keeping forces will be a part of of any peace agreement. I can't see the Ukraine signing any peace deal without it.
It will have to be more than just keepers of the peace (whatever that means). It will need to be a large, credible military force, well equipped and well-trained, with a clear mandate to defend Ukraine against future Russian invasion by all means necessary if needed.

On the flip side, they will also need to have to mandate to stop any Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory (unless the Russians have invaded Ukraine again) ... except we all know there won't be any such attacks.
 

Vitro

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What makes you think sanctions are doing nothing? And particularly will do nothing in the medium//long term?

The US aren't stopping peace talks but they certainly won't be pushing for a peace deal that is unacceptable to Ukraine. Why would they?

Putin and his regime are a severe danger to the world and regime change is essential no matter how long it takes. If the leader changes to someone as bad or worse then that isn't regime change and the sanctions can remain.

And you still haven't answered what you think should be conceeded by Ukraine in peace talks.
Come on we all know he doesn’t have any constructive suggestions :lol:

He posted here to blame the US, not actually talk about what’s best for Ukraine.
 

Denis79

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It will have to be more than just keepers of the peace (whatever that means). It will need to be a large, credible military force, well equipped and well-trained, with a clear mandate to defend Ukraine against future Russian invasion by all means necessary if needed.

On the flip side, they will also need to have to mandate to stop any Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory (unless the Russians have invaded Ukraine again) ... except we all know there won't be any such attacks.
Usually those peace-keeping forces will come from a nation or nations that both countries agree to. Attacking them would be the same as declaring war on the country they are from. If it comes to peace and they agree on peace-keeping forces I don't see them being attacked by either side (Russians).
 

GlastonSpur

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Usually those peace-keeping forces will come from a nation or nations that both countries agree to. Attacking them would be the same as declaring war on the country they are from. If it comes to peace and they agree on peace-keeping forces I don't see them being attacked by either side (Russians).
Except the Russians could simply ignore them and attack only Ukrainian forces and cities. This is why a lightly-armed, small peace-keeping force won't be enough. And it needs to have a mandate to engage either side militarily, regardless of whether or not it has itself been attacked, if the peace is broken.
 

RedDevilQuebecois

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Except the Russians could simply ignore them and attack only Ukrainian forces and cities. This is why a lightly-armed, small peace-keeping force won't be enough. And it needs to have a mandate to engage either side militarily, regardless of whether or not it has itself been attacked, if the peace is broken.
That reminds me of why Operation Deliberate Force worked. That radical change of approach forced Bosnian Serbs back to the negotiation table whereas the UN peacekeeping force alone was not enough to do such for 3 years.
 
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Denis79

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Except the Russians could simply ignore them and attack only Ukrainian forces and cities. This is why a lightly-armed, small peace-keeping force won't be enough. And it needs to have a mandate to engage either side militarily, regardless of whether or not it has itself been attacked, if the peace is broken.
I don't know mate. I don't see a huge peace-keeping army being deployed but who knows.

My guess is that if the Russians manage to control an area, any area they will declare victory to save face. The Ukranians might be so fecking tired of this war and the misery it brings that they are willing to make some kind of peace. If they do agree to peace I see the Ukranians demanding some kind of control in the annexed region, to prevent the shit we have already seen. I don't know any more than you but this is a scenario I see happening.
 

GlastonSpur

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I don't know mate. I don't see a huge peace-keeping army being deployed but who knows.

My guess is that if the Russians manage to control an area, any area they will declare victory to save face. The Ukranians might be so fecking tired of this war and the misery it brings that they are willing to make some kind of peace. If they do agree to peace I see the Ukranians demanding some kind of control in the annexed region, to prevent the shit we have already seen. I don't know any more than you but this is a scenario I see happening.
I think the whole peace-keeping thing as I've defined it is moot anyway. This is because I don't see Putin agreeing to a military force that includes, for example, British troops (Britain having been proposed by Zelenskyy as one of the peace-guarantor nations) that have a mandate to fight against Russian troops if needed.

IMO Putin will only agree to some toothless force with fuzzy mandate that would collapse in 5 minutes if push comes to shove. He won't want to see hard-nosed, well-trained and well-equipped soldiers - soldiers who will actually fight if it comes it - adding to Ukraine's security.

So unfortunately I see a long-drawn out conflict, with no peace deal unless and until either (a) the Russians are driven back to their pre-February 24th positions; or (b) Putin is removed from power and new leader voluntarily withdraws the Russian troops.