Season '22-'23's paradox

[Fortitude]

- The manager needs time to put years of undercoaching and ineptitude to the side.

- Manchester United have a desperate need to qualify for the Champions League.

Both statements are close to irrefutable (some still believe this is a CL-qualifying level squad as is) and yet the latter almost completely errodes the former.

I think the caf consensus - which seems to be both reasonable and realistic - is that we'll be a 5th or 6th placed side at best with some people deviating by a place or two either side of that.

Not being a Champions League team has caused numerous problems this summer. Where in the past we could stomach the blow and still recruit (or retain) with the suggestion that the failure to qualify was anomalous and just a blip, we're now entering territory of [top] players avoiding us or having serious reservations about coming. We also don't have the coffers to simply drown out noise with wads of cash to the point we can offset this. There isn't a pissing contest to be had - we are a less attractive proposition without the CL and 'other' (such as us being Manchester United) is not picking up the slack.

Even if you remove the recruitment of players from the equation, as a commercial entity, drawing in lucrative deals and sponsorship etc. we're fading rapidly relative to our name and previous standing as a behemoth - the CL is the razzmatazz and the financial boon so many offshoots we're accustomed to arise from.

The above is stating the obvious and it is not new news, but it is an anchor around the manager's neck. I also seriously doubt that we as a club have budgeted and prepared for consecutive seasons - or a run - outside of the CL. Weren't there clauses and conditions set as penalties from sponsors should we find ourselves outside of the CL in consecutive seasons? The knock on effect will demonstrably impact upon recruitment, from up and coming potential to those about to make the leap to final destination clubs, and obviously ruling us out of the established star-level tier. These players go to upwardly mobile clubs or those already at the top. Two consecutive years out of the CL sets a ruinous precedent across the board and has us wallowing in the fallen giant territory, like Arsenal and their emphatic collapse.

I would like to believe that the club is sick and tired of cycling through managers and will stick with this one unless the season and performances there in make his position untenable, but equally, I can't see how we aren't in squeaky bum time with regard to CL qualification and the pressure that will heap upon the manager.

As fans, are you able to separate or accept the position not finishing top 4 leaves us in? It's very easy to casually state we're not likely to finish top 4, but have the implications of that sunk in? Is the manager going to be afforded that time by the fanbase?

 

[Sammy McIlroys fan club]

- The manager needs time to put years of undercoaching and ineptitude to the side.

- Manchester United have a desperate need to qualify for the Champions League.

Both statements are close to irrefutable (some still believe this is a CL-qualifying level squad as is) and yet the latter almost completely errodes the former.

I think the caf consensus - which seems to be both reasonable and realistic - is that we'll be a 5th or 6th placed side at best with some people deviating by a place or two either side of that.

Not being a Champions League team has caused numerous problems this summer. Where in the past we could stomach the blow and still recruit (or retain) with the suggestion that the failure to qualify was anomalous and just a blip, we're now entering territory of [top] players avoiding us or having serious reservations about coming. We also don't have the coffers to simply drown out noise with wads of cash to the point we can offset this. There isn't a pissing contest to be had - we are a less attractive proposition without the CL and 'other' (such as us being Manchester United) is not picking up the slack.

Even if you remove the recruitment of players from the equation, as a commercial entity, drawing in lucrative deals and sponsorship etc. we're fading rapidly relative to our name and previous standing as a behemoth - the CL is the razzmatazz and the financial boon so many offshoots we're accustomed to arise from.

The above is stating the obvious and it is not new news, but it is an anchor around the manager's neck. I also seriously doubt that we as a club have budgeted and prepared for consecutive seasons - or a run - outside of the CL. Weren't there clauses and conditions set as penalties from sponsors should we find ourselves outside of the CL in consecutive seasons? The knock on effect will demonstrably impact upon recruitment, from up and coming potential to those about to make the leap to final destination clubs, and obviously ruling us out of the established star-level tier. These players go to upwardly mobile clubs or those already at the top. Two consecutive years out of the CL sets a ruinous precedent across the board and has us wallowing in the fallen giant territory, like Arsenal and their emphatic collapse.

I would like to believe that the club is sick and tired of cycling through managers and will stick with this one unless the season and performances there in make his position untenable, but equally, I can't see how we aren't in squeaky bum time with regard to CL qualification and the pressure that will heap upon the manager.

As fans, are you able to separate or accept the position not finishing top 4 leaves us in? It's very easy to casually state we're not likely to finish top 4, but have the implications of that sunk in? Is the manager going to be afforded that time by the fanbase?

If there is a clear pattern of play and a clear pattern of recruitment alongside development of youth players and a decent crack at the Europa league and the FA cup then the fans will be calm. If we end up with McFred in midfield all year and Arnoutavic up front then the fans will be angry and rightly so though probably more with the board than the manager.

 

[Rawls]

First thing's first, we need to prioritise the Europa League this year. We are going to have way too many teething problems in the league and the first half of the league season will likely be very rough. EL is our own realistic chance of CL qualification.

But I don't think we're done for if we don't make the CL and I think Liverpool showcased that. Klopp took over in October 2015; here was his first Starting XI:
Mignolet
Clyne
Skrtel
Sakho
Moreno
Leiva
Can
Milner
Lallana
Coutinho
Origi

Just under four years later, here was their CL-winning line-up:
Alisson
TAA
Matip
Van Dijk
Robertson
Henderson
Fabinho
Wijnaldum
Salah
Firmino
Mané

When Klopp took over, only Henderson and Firmino out of their 2019 CL-winning XI were in the 2015 squad.

2016/'17: Matip (Free), Mané (£36M), and Wijnaldum (£23M); Gross Spend of £67.9M; Net Spend of -£7.5M
2017/'18: Salah (£44M), Robertson (£10M), Oxlade-Chamberlain (£40M), Van Dijk (£75M); Gross Spend of £168.9M; Net Spend of £28.65M

Of course, Liverpool broke into the Top 4 in 2016/2017 so they were able to use the CL to attract players in 2017/2018. However, look at the players they signed and where they signed them from. Salah came from Roma who didn't even make it to the CL in 2016/'17. Plus Liverpool were able to offer higher wages than Roma and Liverpool were/are a bigger club than Roma. Robertson came from Hull, Van Dijk from Southampton. Sure, these players would have been attracted by the CL but they were coming from non-CL clubs and Liverpool were a club higher in rank than their previous clubs. This is why the FdJ chase was always fraught with danger; Barcelona may be delusional in thinking their finances and transfer strategy are bombproof but they are a huge club. Going from Barca to Utd is at best a sideways move. Compare that to us signing Lisandro Martinez. Ajax are in the CL this year yet Martinez still came. Similarly, even if PSV made it into the CL, I'd wager that Gakpo would still rather join Utd than stay at PSV.

Liverpool have showed that finances aren't the be-all and end-all as well. Yes, greater finances like City would help. But the issue with Utd is not resources as such, the main issue is bad recruitment. How do we know that even if the transfer budget was £250M, that it wouldn't be wasted? Liverpool qualified for the CL in 2016/'17 (Admittedly a weaker league back then) simply through good recruitment rather than expensive recruitment. Losing out on the CL revenue is less than ideal but we *can* overcome it in theory.

If we (a) improve the quality of our recruitment and (b) focus on players at smaller clubs who are are young, hungry, and have the potential to be great, then we can actually do a proper rebuild in spite of missing out on the CL for at least two seasons. In theory, it can happen. In practice....

 

[Skills]

The amount of time managers need is vastly overstated here. Generally speaking a managers most successful season at a club will be either his 1st or 2nd, and by the third you'll be in the market for a new one anyway.

That's the way modern football works.

 

[Bello Giacomo]

If there is a clear pattern of play and a clear pattern of recruitment alongside development of youth players and a decent crack at the Europa league and the FA cup then the fans will be calm. If we end up with McFred in midfield all year and Arnoutavic up front then the fans will be angry and rightly so though probably more with the board than the manager.

This not really true. There is clear pattern for recruitment - players Ten Hag know how play system, no spend big if right player not available - and Ten Hag tactics clear on pitch. But lose to Brighton at OT and look at fans. There no patience in Manchester fans. Sorry to let you know.

 

[JohnnyKills]

First thing's first, we need to prioritise the Europa League this year. We are going to have way too many teething problems in the league and the first half of the league season will likely be very rough. EL is our own realistic chance of CL qualification.

But I don't think we're done for if we don't make the CL and I think Liverpool showcased that. Klopp took over in October 2015; here was his first Starting XI:
Mignolet
Clyne
Skrtel
Sakho
Moreno
Leiva
Can
Milner
Lallana
Coutinho
Origi

Just under four years later, here was their CL-winning line-up:
Alisson
TAA
Matip
Van Dijk
Robertson
Henderson
Fabinho
Wijnaldum
Salah
Firmino
Mané

When Klopp took over, only Henderson and Firmino out of their 2019 CL-winning XI were in the 2015 squad.

2016/'17: Matip (Free), Mané (£36M), and Wijnaldum (£23M); Gross Spend of £67.9M; Net Spend of -£7.5M
2017/'18: Salah (£44M), Robertson (£10M), Oxlade-Chamberlain (£40M), Van Dijk (£75M); Gross Spend of £168.9M; Net Spend of £28.65M

Of course, Liverpool broke into the Top 4 in 2016/2017 so they were able to use the CL to attract players in 2017/2018. However, look at the players they signed and where they signed them from. Salah came from Roma who didn't even make it to the CL in 2016/'17. Plus Liverpool were able to offer higher wages than Roma and Liverpool were/are a bigger club than Roma. Robertson came from Hull, Van Dijk from Southampton. Sure, these players would have been attracted by the CL but they were coming from non-CL clubs and Liverpool were a club higher in rank than their previous clubs. This is why the FdJ chase was always fraught with danger; Barcelona may be delusional in thinking their finances and transfer strategy are bombproof but they are a huge club. Going from Barca to Utd is at best a sideways move. Compare that to us signing Lisandro Martinez. Ajax are in the CL this year yet Martinez still came. Similarly, even if PSV made it into the CL, I'd wager that Gakpo would still rather join Utd than stay at PSV.

Liverpool have showed that finances aren't the be-all and end-all as well. Yes, greater finances like City would help. But the issue with Utd is not resources as such, the main issue is bad recruitment. How do we know that even if the transfer budget was £250M, that it wouldn't be wasted? Liverpool qualified for the CL in 2016/'17 (Admittedly a weaker league back then) simply through good recruitment rather than expensive recruitment. Losing out on the CL revenue is less than ideal but we *can* overcome it in theory.

If we (a) improve the quality of our recruitment and (b) focus on players at smaller clubs who are are young, hungry, and have the potential to be great, then we can actually do a proper rebuild in spite of missing out on the CL for at least two seasons. In theory, it can happen. In practice....

Good post

 

[GazTheLegend]

We will finish just above relegation. We have worse players than last season, Ronaldo is even older and more demotivated than ever, and our primadonnas will throw their toys out of the pram in a month Newcastle will finish ahead of us for the next 10 years at this rate. Brighton are an average midtable side and they battered us that first half at the weekend. De Gea can't make a save right now - you get 2 shots on target against us you get 2 goals.

Ten Hag is a good manager and might steady the ship next season. But it looks like this one is going to be even more painful

It astonishes me that anyone thinks we will make the CL spots right now. Chelsea spurs and arsenal all improved, we went backwards hard. We don't even have the depth we did last year. Henderson Lingard and Pogba were all at least prem level players. Who has replaced them if we have injuries?????

 

[GazTheLegend]

This not really true. There is clear pattern for recruitment - players Ten Hag know how play system, no spend big if right player not available - and Ten Hag tactics clear on pitch. But lose to Brighton at OT and look at fans. There no patience in Manchester fans. Sorry to let you know.

The players are the same as last season -- or worse. Without improving the players how can you get better? It's not impatience it's realism. Football is 99% about recruitment and ours is embarrassing. If the signings Ten Hag has made work - great. But the jury is out. Lingard Pogba etc weren't great but they were depth, and depth we don't have now. If we get an injury in midfield, to our already awful players, who is left?

 

[iHicksy]

I'd say one thing that Pool did that we used to do and haven't done in YEARS is sign players from lower premier league clubs who are obvious talents with the bonus that they are adapted to the league and the country.

Mane - This was a no brainer. Anyone that saw Southampton could see this guy was going to be one of the best attackers in the league.
VVD -Again, watching Southampton I only saw a handful of games but i instantly thought this guy was going to be the best CB in the league if not the world.
Wijnaldum - was playing very well for newcastle and clearly fit the system that Klopp wanted to integrate and became integral right out the door.

These players were supplemented with the likes of Robertson from the championship who has gone on to become world class and Trent from the Youth team.

We should be doing this - we used to. (Cole, Yorke, Sheringham, Keane, Pallister, Eric, the list goes on and on).

I'm amazed we didn't go in for the likes of Richalison at that price. Likewise, there are players at Brighton, Southampton, Wolves that have the potential to get the club into the top 4 who would improve us. Players of the quality of Neves, Podence, DCL etc. Instead we seem to be going for the Dalots, Freds, Telles of the world and supplementing with dross like McT and Elanga (perhaps harsh but i don't think he has the required quality). I think the likes of Garner have shown more on loan last season than McT has in his entire United career for example. Likewise, we have some thrilling youth prospects as we saw in pre-season who could be our "trent/robertson".

 

[Rams]

The amount of time managers need is vastly overstated here. Generally speaking a managers most successful season at a club will be either his 1st or 2nd, and by the third you'll be in the market for a new one anyway.

That's the way modern football works.

That would be the case if the clubs have the right structure in place. In case of ETH he’s joined the club whilst it’s restructuring its football sides of things.

 

[Abraxas]

He is manager of Manchester United and is compensated accordingly. It's a massive job, a massive responsibility, and it should come with certain demands that you have to actually achieve something. At the very least you have to show progress. Whether they've set 4th as that target I have no idea, but the ownership would be even more incompetent than they seem if they give a manager carte blanche to just freeroll the season. There always has to be some expectation, demand or aim set.

I don't think an expectation around 4th undermines the idea that he needs time to improve our team. Is it not possible to improve a side and also finish 4th? Does it mean we sack him if he finishes 5th or 6th? No, it just means he is accountable and then we have to work with him to understand what he struggled with, what we as a club did wrong, and try to analyse the mistakes and also what did work so we can build on it.

I think this is what a sensible ownership would do with a club in our position, anyway. What the Glazers will do is probably hamstring the manager, hope he produces a miracle, and if it does go tits up wait until we are mathematically unable to qualify for the CL in whatever season it is that the heat turns up on the manager. That's what history suggests.

 

[Uniquim]

[...] I would like to believe that the club is sick and tired of cycling through managers and will stick with this one unless the season and performances there in make his position untenable, but equally, I can't see how we aren't in squeaky bum time with regard to CL qualification and the pressure that will heap upon the manager.

As fans, are you able to separate or accept the position not finishing top 4 leaves us in? It's very easy to casually state we're not likely to finish top 4, but have the implications of that sunk in? Is the manager going to be afforded that time by the fanbase?

For me, I'm okay with falling outside of top 4, as long as you can tell the team have improved, that there's a clear plan, and there's improvement in performances. Obviously, I'd want top 4, but having faith in a long-term project is the only way to get out of this mess in my opinion. Now we've got a great manager in place that have created two distinctive Ajax sides that both over-performed in Europe to head that project. The alternative in the way we run things, is to re-boot with a new project and new head, to set us back another year.

It was mentioned in this thread, the path of the Europa League being another option, since there's likely to be a few more hiccups in the league, esp. early on, I think that makes sense too. In any case, starting from 2024, we could potentially squeeze in to the CL through a 5th spot if our continental performances are good over the past few years.

Not sure if the fan base will give him time, but it depends on how bad it gets before it improves. I think that'll get more pressing towards the end of the season.

This not really true. There is clear pattern for recruitment - players Ten Hag know how play system, no spend big if right player not available - and Ten Hag tactics clear on pitch. But lose to Brighton at OT and look at fans. There no patience in Manchester fans. Sorry to let you know.

I agree with this. Clearly we should be in a much better place then we are, but we have a lot of problems to sort out, and Brighton is a team that's not only difficult to play, as they have shown over past years against better sides than United, but they also expose some of our biggest weakness, including press-resistency.

The team, already in pre-season, does seem to have a clearer intent on the field, although in several games we've lost our focus later in the games, but you can tell there's a intent and plan in the way we play, which haven't always been the case.

I think the recruitments we have been trying to make have made sense (for the most part), although we've not landed all the players we've seemingly been after. Sometimes because of the price, and sometimes because the player wants to move elsewhere (or in one particular case, stay at Barca). I think us not giving into any and all demands are good thing too. Even if Rabiot might not be the signing everyone have been wanting, it's a signing that makes sense, and that I believe could work well as a support player. He's got 250+ games for PSG & Juventus, and is likely to be with France at the World Cup, and we're getting him for £15 million or so?
He'll help us a lot in moving the ball around better, he's technical, good at linking up, and moving the ball. Clearly a good deal.

Most of the time a beautiful lawn, is a dirty field of mud, before it starts growing.

Maybe we should've moved on from Frenkie, but him joining us would push this whole project forward a lot compared to most other players, and give that instant improvement people are yearning for, so I'm not mad that we've been holding out. Chelsea getting involved clearly makes that deal even harder to land though.

 

[Bello Giacomo]

The players are the same as last season -- or worse. Without improving the players how can you get better? It's not impatience it's realism. Football is 99% about recruitment and ours is embarrassing. If the signings Ten Hag has made work - great. But the jury is out. Lingard Pogba etc weren't great but they were depth, and depth we don't have now. If we get an injury in midfield, to our already awful players, who is left?

Sorry, I not reply to message properly. Ten Hag already talked players recruitment, he buy players know system (only 3, but 3 is big % of 11) and he say he not buy players unless sure. This is change of recruitment. Fans are not ready to wait for correct player, no have patience.

If the signings Ten Hag has made work - great. But the jury is out.

This not patience. Sorry.

 

[Bello Giacomo]

...The team, already in pre-season, does seem to have a clearer intent on the field, although in several games we've lost our focus later in the games, but you can tell there's a intent and plan in the way we play, which haven't always been the case.
...

It is clear Ten Hag pressing from front, team push higher up than Ole United. This mean defence exposed. Not possible to press from front and not reveal defence. First games will score more goals but also concede more goals, but attack players still no "click" and Rashford still not find form, so right now looks bad. End season, my opinion United score lots but concede lots. Not sure Ten Hag survive there by end of season.

 

[tomaldinho1]

I'd take entertaining football and no CL over the crap we've been served up these last 5 years and CL. Have to think mid-long term with this United squad and manager and ETH has a tough task which is actually very doable/realistic but you just need to ignore the negative hyperbole G Nev/Keane non stop soundbites on repeat & think about what we see on the pitch in a few weeks compared to Brighton and then again every few weeks to see if there's progress.

These to me are the realistic scenarios that might happen this season:

1. CL finish (whether by top 4 or EL win) + entertaining football and ETH is a demi god.
2. EL finish + entertaining football is my hope.
3. EL finish + sporadically good football with lots of mistakes is realistic.
4. non EL finish + entertaining football
5. non EL finish + average football

I think in all but scenario 5 he will be backed massively in the summer. Don't lose the plot over a bad result or two against good teams, we will have a lot of close/nail biting games this season. It will be a rollercoaster.

 

[led_scholes]

First thing's first, we need to prioritise the Europa League this year. We are going to have way too many teething problems in the league and the first half of the league season will likely be very rough. EL is our own realistic chance of CL qualification.

But I don't think we're done for if we don't make the CL and I think Liverpool showcased that. Klopp took over in October 2015; here was his first Starting XI:
Mignolet
Clyne
Skrtel
Sakho
Moreno
Leiva
Can
Milner
Lallana
Coutinho
Origi

Just under four years later, here was their CL-winning line-up:
Alisson
TAA
Matip
Van Dijk
Robertson
Henderson
Fabinho
Wijnaldum
Salah
Firmino
Mané

When Klopp took over, only Henderson and Firmino out of their 2019 CL-winning XI were in the 2015 squad.

2016/'17: Matip (Free), Mané (£36M), and Wijnaldum (£23M); Gross Spend of £67.9M; Net Spend of -£7.5M
2017/'18: Salah (£44M), Robertson (£10M), Oxlade-Chamberlain (£40M), Van Dijk (£75M); Gross Spend of £168.9M; Net Spend of £28.65M

Of course, Liverpool broke into the Top 4 in 2016/2017 so they were able to use the CL to attract players in 2017/2018. However, look at the players they signed and where they signed them from. Salah came from Roma who didn't even make it to the CL in 2016/'17. Plus Liverpool were able to offer higher wages than Roma and Liverpool were/are a bigger club than Roma. Robertson came from Hull, Van Dijk from Southampton. Sure, these players would have been attracted by the CL but they were coming from non-CL clubs and Liverpool were a club higher in rank than their previous clubs. This is why the FdJ chase was always fraught with danger; Barcelona may be delusional in thinking their finances and transfer strategy are bombproof but they are a huge club. Going from Barca to Utd is at best a sideways move. Compare that to us signing Lisandro Martinez. Ajax are in the CL this year yet Martinez still came. Similarly, even if PSV made it into the CL, I'd wager that Gakpo would still rather join Utd than stay at PSV.

Liverpool have showed that finances aren't the be-all and end-all as well. Yes, greater finances like City would help. But the issue with Utd is not resources as such, the main issue is bad recruitment. How do we know that even if the transfer budget was £250M, that it wouldn't be wasted? Liverpool qualified for the CL in 2016/'17 (Admittedly a weaker league back then) simply through good recruitment rather than expensive recruitment. Losing out on the CL revenue is less than ideal but we *can* overcome it in theory.

If we (a) improve the quality of our recruitment and (b) focus on players at smaller clubs who are are young, hungry, and have the potential to be great, then we can actually do a proper rebuild in spite of missing out on the CL for at least two seasons. In theory, it can happen. In practice....

I still remember many posters preferring us to finish out of EL or Conference, as they consider it distraction and belittled it. Truth is they were a bit deluded thinking that we could challenge for something domestically.

 

[mitchmouse]

Not too much point of qualifying and pretty much being out by Matchday 3!

 

[Lentwood]

Mane - This was a no brainer. Anyone that saw Southampton could see this guy was going to be one of the best attackers in the league.
VVD -Again, watching Southampton I only saw a handful of games but i instantly thought this guy was going to be the best CB in the league if not the world.
Wijnaldum - was playing very well for newcastle and clearly fit the system that Klopp wanted to integrate and became integral right out the door.

All easy to say with the benefit of hindsight but Liverpool were heavily criticised for these signings at the time.

There was a thread on here about us signing Mane and the vast majority derided it as 'Glazernomics' and lowered standards.

Likewise, many ridiculed the signing of Wijnaldum from relegated Newcastle (again, imagine if we started signing players on a free from relegated clubs)

They were also laughed at for overpaying for van Dijk, who at that point had only ever represented Celtic and Southampton

 

[pocco]

I can accept no top 4 providing I believe we are trying to progress in ways that will benefit in the long run. Tactically, improving players and integrating youth team players.

If we go the Rangnick route (understandable for him given his short term appointment) and abandon tactical plans to try and cobble something together, then I have no patience for that. It will not serve any purpose.

 

[Skills]

@Fortitude have you thought about it from a players end? You mention already the players are reluctant to join us because of the lack of CL - so what if someone like FDJ asks for a no CL release clause? Would you happy to let players leave in seasons we don't get the CL?

 

[kunal18]

It will be difficult to get the top players if we dont finish top four as we are seeing with De Jong and others.
And to make matters worse we dont have a structure in place to get the hidden gems from the market
at reasonable prices as other clubs have been doing. We have tried that approach but failed.
Accepting mediocrity and biding time is not going to suddenly propel the club to the top,
it is important to be highly competitive while making whatever changes that Ten Hag intends to do.
The way we've been handling the transfers this window in particular it seems Ten Hag will face more shocks
than the Brighton game in the coming games and would want to overhaul the entire squad but it will be too late for the season.
I hope he does well till the end of the window and gets in at least 3 definite first team starters.

 

[scottser]

First thing's first, we need to prioritise the Europa League this year. We are going to have way too many teething problems in the league and the first half of the league season will likely be very rough. EL is our own realistic chance of CL qualification.

But I don't think we're done for if we don't make the CL and I think Liverpool showcased that. Klopp took over in October 2015; here was his first Starting XI:
Mignolet
Clyne
Skrtel
Sakho
Moreno
Leiva
Can
Milner
Lallana
Coutinho
Origi

Just under four years later, here was their CL-winning line-up:
Alisson
TAA
Matip
Van Dijk
Robertson
Henderson
Fabinho
Wijnaldum
Salah
Firmino
Mané

When Klopp took over, only Henderson and Firmino out of their 2019 CL-winning XI were in the 2015 squad.

2016/'17: Matip (Free), Mané (£36M), and Wijnaldum (£23M); Gross Spend of £67.9M; Net Spend of -£7.5M
2017/'18: Salah (£44M), Robertson (£10M), Oxlade-Chamberlain (£40M), Van Dijk (£75M); Gross Spend of £168.9M; Net Spend of £28.65M

Of course, Liverpool broke into the Top 4 in 2016/2017 so they were able to use the CL to attract players in 2017/2018. However, look at the players they signed and where they signed them from. Salah came from Roma who didn't even make it to the CL in 2016/'17. Plus Liverpool were able to offer higher wages than Roma and Liverpool were/are a bigger club than Roma. Robertson came from Hull, Van Dijk from Southampton. Sure, these players would have been attracted by the CL but they were coming from non-CL clubs and Liverpool were a club higher in rank than their previous clubs. This is why the FdJ chase was always fraught with danger; Barcelona may be delusional in thinking their finances and transfer strategy are bombproof but they are a huge club. Going from Barca to Utd is at best a sideways move. Compare that to us signing Lisandro Martinez. Ajax are in the CL this year yet Martinez still came. Similarly, even if PSV made it into the CL, I'd wager that Gakpo would still rather join Utd than stay at PSV.

Liverpool have showed that finances aren't the be-all and end-all as well. Yes, greater finances like City would help. But the issue with Utd is not resources as such, the main issue is bad recruitment. How do we know that even if the transfer budget was £250M, that it wouldn't be wasted? Liverpool qualified for the CL in 2016/'17 (Admittedly a weaker league back then) simply through good recruitment rather than expensive recruitment. Losing out on the CL revenue is less than ideal but we *can* overcome it in theory.

If we (a) improve the quality of our recruitment and (b) focus on players at smaller clubs who are are young, hungry, and have the potential to be great, then we can actually do a proper rebuild in spite of missing out on the CL for at least two seasons. In theory, it can happen. In practice....

great post.
also, klopp spent a lot of time on the small details and brought in specialist coaches to turn things around. they hired throw-in and free-kick specialists and their possession stats went from being mediocre to being the 2nd best in 2018/19. we seem to be more interested in hiring a better communications and pr team than coaching staff this last 5 years.
fletcher as technical director should really take a very long look at himself. he's a chancer, and should be gone.

 

[Fortitude]

@Fortitude have you thought about it from a players end? You mention already the players are reluctant to join us because of the lack of CL - so what if someone like FDJ asks for a no CL release clause? Would you happy to let players leave in seasons we don't get the CL?

I don't think we will have a choice but to incentivise/entice with contractually agreed escape routes/exit strategies if we are out of the CL for two seasons running. We're already seen as a black hole and not at all taken seriously, or at least as a serious entity and should we not qualify two seasons in a row, that would be compounded by an order of magnitude I don't think fans really want to think about and thus, well, don't.

With regards to being happy about it, of course not, but any agent of a quality talent who didn't have the club bent over a barrel in clauses and exit strategies for their client would be incompetent. As our predicament worsens, the strength and brokering for the agents increases and I don't think it's any skin off their noses anymore if players come here or not (as we've seen this summer), so it'd either be that or miss out on a band of talent we should always be in the market for.

 

[Lentwood]

I don't recall exactly but didn't Liverpool have one or two seasons were they finished 7/8th or lower?

Point-being, everything feels terrible right now but it only takes three or four windows worth of good footballing decisions and you can go from very mediocre to very good.

I really do believe that if you added two very good CMs and one very good CF to this team, plus put Dean Henderson in goal, you'd basically have a very good side.

We'd still be a RB and one wide-forward away from winning things....but we'd certainly be a shoe-in for 3rd/4th and we can build from there.

The problem is, and I have said this a million times, we fail ridiculously slow. 'Failure' is not a problem in football, in life or in business. It's how quickly we can move on from failed investments, failed transfers, failed initiatives, failed relationships, failed jobs etc.... that is important. In-fact, being able to fail and 'fail fast' is a huge advantage.

Hopefully people see what I mean....we fail slowly because-.

1) We hand-out huge, long-term contracts which makes moving players on difficult - so we're stuck with them when it doesn't work out

2) We spend huge sums on individual players that we're unlikely to recover. Once you spend £60/70m on a player, you're committing yourself to either sticking with them or accepting a large loss if you need to ship them out for whatever reason.

3) We have had an 'accountants mindset' to recruitment and squad management. Woodward didn't understand the strategic importance of failing-fast and the cost of failing slow and instead saw the playing squad as 'assets' on a balance sheet. This mindset led to the retention of many players who should have been released or sold at a loss in order that we could move forward (Chelsea are good at this)

4) In addition to the above, we take forever to identify what we want to do with players, particularly young players, and then dither to the point that they lose any re-sale value they might have had. How many Academy graduates have we successfully integrated into the first-team, then effectively slammed the brakes on their careers by either not giving them the minutes they need or sending them on pointless loans? Case in-point...basically half our squad!

We need a fresh approach that allows us to fail-fast, which involves...

1) Buying more players for smaller transfer fees and moving quickly to move-on the one's who don't work out. I don't understand why we are so reticent to gamble on more players in that £20-30m bracket from smaller clubs. Get them in, give them a go, if it doesn't work, move them on! It's not rocket-science! We saw it with Dan James. Came in, was decent but not good enough, we sold for a profit...that should be encouraged! Malacia is a step in the right direction in this sense because he'd have to be really, really bad for us not to get £13m back from another club and he *might* be really good....so it's low-risk as wost-case scenario we 'fail fast'!

2) Ensure contracts are no-longer than 3YRs for any player over 25. City are being really smart at the moment and moving on Sterling and Silva. Liverpool moved on Mane. They realise that players who perform into their 30s at the top-level are the exceptions, not the norm, and they are wisely taking the money for these players whilst they can. Even though these players will all do reasonably well for a while at Chelsea, Barcelona and Bayern, it'll be City and Liverpool looking smart in the long-run when they've reinvested the money in the next Sterling, the next Silva and the next Mane.

3) Ensure contracts are performance-incentivised, even if that means offering very lucrative bonuses for basic things like 'appearances'. This is great because not only does it mean players have to really earn their money, it also means that if they aren't playing, their 'base' salary is affordable and they'll be incentivised to leave for another club. For example, instead of giving a player £150K a week basic salary with a few minor bonuses, give them a £100K base with a £75K appearance bonus and £25K in goals/assists/clean sheets etc...Their total package is more...but if they don't play...they don't earn...and so we can shift them!

4) Re-asses how we view the Academy. We don't need to publicise this view, but internally we should see the Academy as a 'footballer farm'. The primary goal is not to produce players for the first-team. The primary goal is to make a profit which we can use to invest in the first team! Imagine for a second, how much could we have made for Janujaz, Rashford, Dean Henderson, Brandon Williams, James Garner, Scott McTominay, Jesse Lingard, Tuanzebe etc...if we had been smart? You're talking £375m worth of footballers there if we had sold them peak-hype! Get them sold and get genuinely world-class players bought in. The obvious exception to this is when a player shows world-class potential, and by 'world-class potential' I mean they need to be doing it in the first-team regularly before they hit 20. We can always stick a buyback clause in there, so on the rare occasion a player does surprise us, we can bring them back. Liverpool are brilliant at this and so are City and Chelsea.

See how all of this is not focused on the micro, i.e. was this a good or bad signing etc....it's focused on how can we fundamentally operate better as a club...and setting ourselves up to 'fail fast' is key.

 

[Halftrack]

Mane - This was a no brainer. Anyone that saw Southampton could see this guy was going to be one of the best attackers in the league.

I was originally just going to point out that back in 2015, when we were linked to him after Pedro looked like going to Chelsea, people on here were very against it. But then I took a closer look at the Nay votes, and

What's that? Way down to the left?

Well damn.

 

[iHicksy]

I was originally just going to point out that back in 2015, when we were linked to him after Pedro looked like going to Chelsea, people on here were very against it. But then I took a closer look at the Nay votes, and

What's that? Way down to the left?

Well damn.

Hah, that's a fair kop giv. However, I can only assume I either hadn't seen him play by then or it was a mis-click as I have been raving about him since Dec 2015 on these forums judging from my post history. I present exhibits A) your honour.

"
"First time I saw Mané at Salzburg, I thought: Wow! He is quick, a good Player" -Pep Guardiola.

BBC gossip column reporting that Bayern are interested in signing him too. Wonder how fast he'll suddenly shoot up in the cafe's estimation now, despite being deemed not good enough a few months back. " ihicksy, Redcafe, Dec 2015 and posted about how good he is every year post that too.

You have to appreciate sometimes United are playing such tumescent football that i wouldn't wish any player of his caliber to sign for us because we'd just make them look shit and it's depressing.

 

[Halftrack]

Hah, that's a fair kop giv. However, I can only assume I either hadn't seen him play by then or it was a mis-click as I have been raving about him since Dec 2015 on these forums judging from my post history. I present exhibits A) your honour.

"
"First time I saw Mané at Salzburg, I thought: Wow! He is quick, a good Player" -Pep Guardiola.

BBC gossip column reporting that Bayern are interested in signing him too. Wonder how fast he'll suddenly shoot up in the cafe's estimation now, despite being deemed not good enough a few months back. " ihicksy, Redcafe, Dec 2015 and posted about how good he is every year post that too.

You have to appreciate sometimes United are playing such tumescent football that i wouldn't wish any player of his caliber to sign for us because we'd just make them look shit and it's depressing.

Haha no worries, just found it amusing. At least you didn't leave some horrifically embarrassing comment where you compared him unfavourably to Welbeck, Young, Pereira and/or Januzaj, or ridiculed the potential signing of him as a Liverpool move.