Signing players by the amount goal difference they add

[the chameleon]

This summer is key to get us moving from that purgatory of 60-70 points.

Bruno improved us by 20 more guaranteed goals for the team.

Sancho would have added 10-15 goals.

This talk of squad players like Brook is fine but how much will these squad players move the needle by?

Surely getting 3rd means we need to be aiming for 80 points next year. I think we are currently in 65-70 points club now. If consistent we could push for 75.

Upecamo would help concede 10 less goals.

Upgrading De Gea could help concede 5-10 less goals.

A striker like Haaland would add 20 extra goals.

Hopefully sone of existing players will improve their contributions.

What are signings do you think would help us move the needle to make sure we get 80 points minimum next year?

Who are they and by much of a goal difference would they improve us?

Surely, they should be asking these questions before making a new signing whether it’s first team or squad.

 

[Baneofthegame]

How do you know we would concede 10 less with Dayot?

Who can we afford who definitely will save 5-10 goals outside of potentially Henderson?

Haaland is 80+ million right now, what happens to Martials contributions with him here?

There’s a reason extensive scouting exists, otherwise we could look at purely stats and say definitively that player x y and z would make us champions, while that could happen if the elite were available to come here, for players that are available (outside of Sancho) who don’t cost premium money, you have to be very careful especially at this time who you are buying.

We already went through this approach with LVG and to a certain extent Mourinho.

 

[Chief123]

This summer is key to get us moving from that purgatory of 60-70 points.

Bruno improved us by 20 more guaranteed goals for the team.

Sancho would have added 10-15 goals.

This talk of squad players like Brook is fine but how much will these squad players move the needle by?

Surely getting 3rd means we need to be aiming for 80 points next year. I think we are currently in 65-70 points club now. If consistent we could push for 75.

Upecamo would help concede 10 less goals.

Upgrading De Gea could help concede 5-10 less goals.

A striker like Haaland would add 20 extra goals.

Hopefully sone of existing players will improve their contributions.

What are signings do you think would help us move the needle to make sure we get 80 points minimum next year?

Who are they and by much of a goal difference would they improve us?

Surely, they should be asking these questions before making a new signing whether it’s first team or squad.

This is not how football works.

"Teams" win you points, not "individuals".

 

[RedSky]

It's more a scenario of being able to add quality to the first team and bench. Something we severely lack right now.

 

[Trigg]

So many random numbers in that OP, seemingly plucked from thin air.

We should sign whomever Ole and his staff have identified who they believe could add something to the squad.

 

[the chameleon]

This is not how football works.

"Teams" win you points, not "individuals".

Yes. But you need players that will add value. To the squad. Help us continue the momentum.

How do you know we would concede 10 less with Dayot?

Who can we afford who definitely will save 5-10 goals outside of potentially Henderson?

Haaland is 80+ million right now, what happens to Martials contributions with him here?

There’s a reason extensive scouting exists, otherwise we could look at purely stats and say definitively that player x y and z would make us champions, while that could happen if the elite were available to come here, for players that are available (outside of Sancho) who don’t cost premium money, you have to be very careful especially at this time who you are buying.

We already went through this approach with LVG and to a certain extent Mourinho.

Those were hypothetical numbers to start a conversation from a different angle.

 

[BenitoSTARR]

This summer is key to get us moving from that purgatory of 60-70 points.

Bruno improved us by 20 more guaranteed goals for the team.

Sancho would have added 10-15 goals.

This talk of squad players like Brook is fine but how much will these squad players move the needle by?

Surely getting 3rd means we need to be aiming for 80 points next year. I think we are currently in 65-70 points club now. If consistent we could push for 75.

Upecamo would help concede 10 less goals.

Upgrading De Gea could help concede 5-10 less goals.

A striker like Haaland would add 20 extra goals.

Hopefully sone of existing players will improve their contributions.

What are signings do you think would help us move the needle to make sure we get 80 points minimum next year?

Who are they and by much of a goal difference would they improve us?

Surely, they should be asking these questions before making a new signing whether it’s first team or squad.

Upamecano does not guarantee less goals he’d be a young CB in his debut season in the PL in a new system.

You cannot upgrade De Gea and would more likely promote Henderson who could easily struggle with the pressure.

Haaland isn’t needed with Martial as a ST unless you want him to take goals from him?

Essentially I think this is a very naive view of how things work and you’ve probably been watching too much moneyball.

The only player to me that looks a guaranteed success is Sancho.

Beyond that maybe you’re adding good depth with a potential to one day take over.

 

[the chameleon]

So many random numbers in that OP, seemingly plucked from thin air.

We should sign whomever Ole and his staff have identified who they believe could add something to the squad.

So you can’t have a hypothetical discussion on a football forum these days?

 

[Baneofthegame]

Yes. But you need players that will add value. To the squad. Help us continue the momentum.

Those were hypothetical numbers to start a conversation from a different angle.

Like I said, football doesn’t work that way.

 

[the chameleon]

Upamecano does not guarantee less goals he’d be a young CB in his debut season in the PL in a new system.

You cannot upgrade De Gea and would more likely promote Henderson who could easily struggle with the pressure.

Haaland isn’t needed with Martial as a ST unless you want him to take goals from him?

Essentially I think this is a very naive view of how things work and you’ve probably been watching too much moneyball.

The only player to me that looks a guaranteed success is Sancho.

Beyond that maybe you’re adding good depth with a potential to one day take over.

As I said. I’m trying to start a fun thread to discuss with examples.

 

[cj_sparky]

We'll have 83 more chances next season if we sign Buendia....91 if we waste £60m more on Grealish

 

[Chief123]

Yes. But you need players that will add value. To the squad. Help us continue the momentum.

You can't quantify goals, clean sheets and assists that easily. Firmino would never be regarded as a good signing if that was the case. His ability to enhance other players productivity would be ignored.

Look at David Silva. He was the master of the 2nd assist whereby his ball to a winger would result in a cross leading to a goal. On the stats, Silva would not receive an assist for that but had consistently high contribution to their output.

Getting good individuals to work together as a team is what gets you goals and clean sheets.

 

[the chameleon]

Like I said, football doesn’t work that way.

So you’re the expert now are you?

 

[the chameleon]

You can't quantify goals, clean sheets and assists that easily. Firmino would never be regarded as a good signing if that was the case. His ability to enhance other players productivity would be ignored.

Look at David Silva. He was the master of the 2nd assist whereby his ball to a winger would result in a cross leading to a goal. On the stats, Silva would not receive an assist for that but had consistently high contribution to their output.

Getting good individuals to work together as a team is what gets you goals and clean sheets.

Silva is still indirectly adding to the team. It doesn’t have to be the individuals goals or assists. But what they may add. Having a new signing to enable Pogba to score more goals / assists is still contributing to increasing points.

 

[Baneofthegame]

So you’re the expert now are you?

Im not sure why you are being so touchy about it, I’m no “expert” but I think the majority will agree it can’t be quantified so easily or teams would never have poor recruitment.

For a “fun thread” as you just claimed, maybe we should keep the mood that way.

 

[Gopher Brown]

Messi and Ronaldo and Lewandowski would give us 120 goals between them.

We should line up like this:

Henderson, Upamecano, Sancho, Bruno, Rashford, Sneijder, Ronaldo, Martial, Lewandowski, Lukaku, Aubameyang

 

[Chief123]

Silva is still indirectly adding to the team. It doesn’t have to be the individuals goals or assists. But what they may add. Having a new signing to enable Pogba to score more goals / assists is still contributing to increasing points.

But again someone like Lukaku will add 20-25 goals but didn't work as theres a lot more factors to whether a player is suitable. He didn't suit us.

 

[Chief123]

Messi and Ronaldo and Lewandowski would give us 120 goals between them.

We should line up like this:

Henderson, Upamecano, Sancho, Bruno, Rashford, Sneijder, Ronaldo, Martial, Lewandowski, Lukaku, Aubameyang

No Gaitan?

 

[limerickcitykid]

Messi and Ronaldo on the move, let’s grab them. That’s 80 goals.
Throw in Haaland and Sancho and that’s another 40 goals.
Upamacano is 10 less conceded.
Let’s buy some robotic legs for Luke Shaw, that’ll be 10 less conceded.

Add that to what we’ve already got and I think we’ve got 180 goals for and about 20 against. Should be in with a shot I’d say.

 

[Green_Red]

This summer is key to get us moving from that purgatory of 60-70 points.

Bruno improved us by 20 more guaranteed goals for the team.

Sancho would have added 10-15 goals.

This talk of squad players like Brook is fine but how much will these squad players move the needle by?

Surely getting 3rd means we need to be aiming for 80 points next year. I think we are currently in 65-70 points club now. If consistent we could push for 75.

Upecamo would help concede 10 less goals.

Upgrading De Gea could help concede 5-10 less goals.

A striker like Haaland would add 20 extra goals.

Hopefully sone of existing players will improve their contributions.

What are signings do you think would help us move the needle to make sure we get 80 points minimum next year?

Who are they and by much of a goal difference would they improve us?

Surely, they should be asking these questions before making a new signing whether it’s first team or squad.

How do you figure that we can improve that given we had the most clean sheets across the top 5 leagues in Europe this season?

 

[limerickcitykid]

Messi and Ronaldo and Lewandowski would give us 120 goals between them.

We should line up like this:

Henderson, Upamecano, Sancho, Bruno, Rashford, Sneijder, Ronaldo, Martial, Lewandowski, Lukaku, Aubameyang

Messi coming off the bench? This is the depth we need.

 

[the chameleon]

But again someone like Lukaku will add 20-25 goals but didn't work as theres a lot more factors to whether a player is suitable. He didn't suit us.

That’s true. You make a valid point. I just thought of creating a thread off the cuff while sitting bored at work.

 

[BenitoSTARR]

As I said. I’m trying to start a fun thread to discuss with examples.

So criticism isn’t allowed? We’re you looking for a genuine discussion or someone to say you’re right that we should look at numbers and buy based on that?

 

[Gopher Brown]

No Gaitan?

On the bench, with Celio Silva and Strootman

 

[Chief123]

That’s true. You make a valid point. I just thought of creating a thread off the cuff while sitting bored at work.

I hear ya mate. Fair play. I'm just venting frustrations at the moment due to the Sancho saga!

 

[Gopher Brown]

Messi coming off the bench? This is the depth we need.

Messi is the attacking coach. Gotta replace Michael Carrick with someone who knows what he’s doing, innit.

 

[Ekeke]

This summer is key to get us moving from that purgatory of 60-70 points.

Bruno improved us by 20 more guaranteed goals for the team.

Sancho would have added 10-15 goals.

This talk of squad players like Brook is fine but how much will these squad players move the needle by?

Surely getting 3rd means we need to be aiming for 80 points next year. I think we are currently in 65-70 points club now. If consistent we could push for 75.

Upecamo would help concede 10 less goals.

Upgrading De Gea could help concede 5-10 less goals.

A striker like Haaland would add 20 extra goals.

Hopefully sone of existing players will improve their contributions.

What are signings do you think would help us move the needle to make sure we get 80 points minimum next year?

Who are they and by much of a goal difference would they improve us?

Surely, they should be asking these questions before making a new signing whether it’s first team or squad.

You would have to account for the goals lost from other players when you replace them with those mentioned.

For example starting Haaland instead of Martial might have been 25 league goals and 4 assists instead of 17 goals and 6 assists over the course of a season. But we'd also have won less penalties so then Bruno scores like 3 less goals.

Martial had 6 assists so lets say Greenwood and Rashford score 1 goal less each. Now you're at about 22 goals overall vs 26 goals overall. Its better sure but its not the biggest difference is it?

 

[limerickcitykid]

Messi is the attacking coach. Gotta replace Michael Carrick with someone who knows what he’s doing, innit.

Ohhh innovative, that’s gotta be worth what? An extra 50 goals?

 

[pocco]

This summer is key to get us moving from that purgatory of 60-70 points.

Bruno improved us by 20 more guaranteed goals for the team.

Sancho would have added 10-15 goals.

This talk of squad players like Brook is fine but how much will these squad players move the needle by?

Surely getting 3rd means we need to be aiming for 80 points next year. I think we are currently in 65-70 points club now. If consistent we could push for 75.

Upecamo would help concede 10 less goals.

Upgrading De Gea could help concede 5-10 less goals.

A striker like Haaland would add 20 extra goals.

Hopefully sone of existing players will improve their contributions.

What are signings do you think would help us move the needle to make sure we get 80 points minimum next year?

Who are they and by much of a goal difference would they improve us?

Surely, they should be asking these questions before making a new signing whether it’s first team or squad.

Along similar lines, Liverpool have been using data to great effect to sign players.

https://trainingground.guru/articles/ian-graham-the-one-currency-liverpool-use-to-judge-players

 

[TMDaines]

This looks like a candidate for a lock.

 

[Zlatattack]

This summer is key to get us moving from that purgatory of 60-70 points.

Bruno improved us by 20 more guaranteed goals for the team.

Sancho would have added 10-15 goals.

This talk of squad players like Brook is fine but how much will these squad players move the needle by?

Surely getting 3rd means we need to be aiming for 80 points next year. I think we are currently in 65-70 points club now. If consistent we could push for 75.

Upecamo would help concede 10 less goals.

Upgrading De Gea could help concede 5-10 less goals.

A striker like Haaland would add 20 extra goals.

Hopefully sone of existing players will improve their contributions.

What are signings do you think would help us move the needle to make sure we get 80 points minimum next year?

Who are they and by much of a goal difference would they improve us?

Surely, they should be asking these questions before making a new signing whether it’s first team or squad.

The thoughts in the right place, but it's not so straight forward. Some players don't add numbers themselves, but enables others too.

Fernandes even if he wasn't taking the penalties would still have had the same impact. He provided assists, but also provided a creative presence for other players to link up with, particularly Pogba. Someone like Partey would not add goals, but he'd provide a solid CDM option to rotate with Matic which means our attacking players could go all out, without leaving the defence exposed as much as Fred might when he partners Pogba. Not saying Fred is a bad CDM, but his style doesn't seem to complement Pogba as well as Matic does.

Sancho might only bring 10-15 goals, but he'd also bring additional creativity and goal threat, when means teams would have to try and focus on him, giving those around him space. He can go wide too, which means we wouldn't have to rely on AWB to provide attacking intent on the right.

So my point is, sometimes players add more than just the pure numbers.

 

[jbwilliamz]

It's like a Moneyball approach but it doesn't work with football.

 

[Nickelodeon]

This summer is key to get us moving from that purgatory of 60-70 points.

Bruno improved us by 20 more guaranteed goals for the team.

Sancho would have added 10-15 goals.

This talk of squad players like Brook is fine but how much will these squad players move the needle by?

Surely getting 3rd means we need to be aiming for 80 points next year. I think we are currently in 65-70 points club now. If consistent we could push for 75.

Upecamo would help concede 10 less goals.

Upgrading De Gea could help concede 5-10 less goals.

A striker like Haaland would add 20 extra goals.

Hopefully sone of existing players will improve their contributions.

What are signings do you think would help us move the needle to make sure we get 80 points minimum next year?

Who are they and by much of a goal difference would they improve us?

Surely, they should be asking these questions before making a new signing whether it’s first team or squad.

This is a hypothesis. It is unlikely that it can be proven in a way you're trying too.

For example, Bruno does not mean 20 extra goals. Some of them have been displaced from other players such as the penalties. Similarly, you can replace Martial with Haaland and he might score 10 more goals but his chance creation or penalty winning ability might be lower than Martial which could mean overall same amount, lower or marginally higher number of goals for the team.

Essentially, this thread can only function if you want people to randomly create numbers and argue with each others assumptions where no one can prove or disprove anything.

 

[balaks]

This summer is key to get us moving from that purgatory of 60-70 points.

Bruno improved us by 20 more guaranteed goals for the team.

Sancho would have added 10-15 goals.

This talk of squad players like Brook is fine but how much will these squad players move the needle by?

Surely getting 3rd means we need to be aiming for 80 points next year. I think we are currently in 65-70 points club now. If consistent we could push for 75.

Upecamo would help concede 10 less goals.

Upgrading De Gea could help concede 5-10 less goals.

A striker like Haaland would add 20 extra goals.

Hopefully sone of existing players will improve their contributions.

What are signings do you think would help us move the needle to make sure we get 80 points minimum next year?

Who are they and by much of a goal difference would they improve us?

Surely, they should be asking these questions before making a new signing whether it’s first team or squad.

You must have a crystal ball because without that you would just be plucking numbers out of thin air and totally making stuff up.

 

[Reapersoul20]

Laughing out loud at this post. Selling De Gea would mean 5-10 less goals.

Alright.

 

[Reapersoul20]

You must have a crystal ball because without that you would just be plucking numbers out of thin air and totally making stuff up.

Precisely.

Data analysis for people with brain injuries.

 

[Crashoutcassius]

we could buy lukaku, he will add 30 goals, but he will score them all when we are already 3 up and our wingers would score 15 less each

 

[Sassy Colin]

You must have a crystal ball because without that you would just be plucking numbers out of thin air and totally making stuff up.

Your username aptly describes this thread.

 

[SAFMUTD]

This summer is key to get us moving from that purgatory of 60-70 points.

Bruno improved us by 20 more guaranteed goals for the team.

Sancho would have added 10-15 goals.

This talk of squad players like Brook is fine but how much will these squad players move the needle by?

Surely getting 3rd means we need to be aiming for 80 points next year. I think we are currently in 65-70 points club now. If consistent we could push for 75.

Upecamo would help concede 10 less goals.

Upgrading De Gea could help concede 5-10 less goals.

A striker like Haaland would add 20 extra goals.

Hopefully sone of existing players will improve their contributions.

What are signings do you think would help us move the needle to make sure we get 80 points minimum next year?

Who are they and by much of a goal difference would they improve us?

Surely, they should be asking these questions before making a new signing whether it’s first team or squad.

So basically if we get Upamecano and upgrade De Gea we will concede around 15-20 goals less, taking we conceded 36 last season then we would be around 16-21 goals allowed. Thats among the best defensive records in all premier league history.

Its not that simple but I wonder based on what you calculate those numbers?

 

[Skills]

I like this way of thinking but your estimates are a bit wrong.

You need to think of the goal contributions your giving up too when you're not giving Martial, Rashford and Greenwood the minutes they've had this season.

Bruno admittedly was an open goal as Lingard and Perreira weren't adding goals or assists. Though Bruno's presence has also knicked goals from Rashford (penalties)