The Athletic: Only in an alternate reality should Real Madrid be Champions League winners

[Moby]

That's what I'm thinking - yes.

It isn't ONE universal model anyway - there are multiple models, using slightly different metrics.

To me, at least, it would make some sense to adjust for - precisely - "clear and obvious ref errors". So - if you will - I would prefer a model that did adjust for that to one that did not.

Again - because "clear and obvious ref errors" is a genuine thing, i.e. a potentially significant (enough) factor over time.

Yeah definitely. As you say there's some degree of subjectivity that comes with these models so a bit more can be adjusted.

 

[Iker Quesadillas]

Again - because "clear and obvious ref errors" is a genuine thing, i.e. a potentially significant (enough) factor over time.

Probably not. The xG for individual chances is not very high. If you have an average xG of 1.5 per game, over 10 games that's 15 xG. If the disallowed goal in one match was 0.5 xG then that's just 15.5 xG instead of 15, a pretty trivial difference. The difference is even less if you get a wrongly allowed goal sometime in those 10 games.

More importantly, xG models are not meant to be an analysis of team performance over a single match. That's why they don't add this stuff, just like they don't look at chances that don't result in a shot and a bunch of other things.

 

[Chesterlestreet]

Probably not. The xG for individual chances is not very high. If you have an average xG of 1.5 per game, over 10 games that's 15 xG. If the disallowed goal in one match was 0.5 xG then that's just 15.5 xG instead of 15, a pretty trivial difference. The difference is even less if you get a wrongly allowed goal sometime in those 10 games.

More importantly, xG models are not meant to be an analysis of team performance over a single match.

It could be statistically of no value - sure.

But, like I said, this happens rather frequently. And the chances (considered as such) will be high in terms of xG value.

Over the course of a full season, though - yeah, I see your point. But still - the difference between "no value" and "some value, no matter how small" is still possibly "significant" according to a possible definition.