The decline of long shots in the Premier League

[meamth]

I felt like this is a good topic to discuss, after reading this analysis from skysports:

https://www.skysports.com/football/...andre-schurrle-and-ruben-neves-buck-the-trend

"The signs are that coaches and clubs are adapting their attitude towards long-range shooting. The change of focus is unmistakable when looking at the numbers. In the Premier League, the number of shots from outside the box has decreased in each of the past six seasons and the general downward trend dates back even further than that.

Having taken more than 5000 shots from outside the box a decade ago, Premier League players fired off only 3693 shots last season. Clubs are shooting less in general but this trend is particularly pronounced when it comes to long shots. The proportion of shots from outside the box has steadily decreased too over the past decade."

It's surprising stats to read. No wonder Pogba seems in a decline with his shooting ability, mainly because attacking opportunities are hard to come by and it's kind of wasteful when you shoot instead of a pass.

What do you guys think? Is it better this way?

 

[Tommy]

Most of that decline is probably down to Coutinho no longer spraying the Kop with 10 shots a game

Is it better this way? I'm not sure... I found myself watching this video the other day, & I thought to myself, as fun as it is to see a beautifully worked team goal, there's nothing I enjoy more than just an absolute bullet of a shot from distance. Sure, more often than not they end up missing the target, but when they go in...


Also, any excuse to post this, as it's my favourite goal for a LONG time.


I love long shots.

 

[Gopher Brown]

I felt like this is a good topic to discuss, after reading this analysis from skysports:

https://www.skysports.com/football/...andre-schurrle-and-ruben-neves-buck-the-trend

"The signs are that coaches and clubs are adapting their attitude towards long-range shooting. The change of focus is unmistakable when looking at the numbers. In the Premier League, the number of shots from outside the box has decreased in each of the past six seasons and the general downward trend dates back even further than that.

Having taken more than 5000 shots from outside the box a decade ago, Premier League players fired off only 3693 shots last season. Clubs are shooting less in general but this trend is particularly pronounced when it comes to long shots. The proportion of shots from outside the box has steadily decreased too over the past decade."

It's surprising stats to read. No wonder Pogba seems in a decline with his shooting ability, mainly because attacking opportunities are hard to come by and it's kind of wasteful when you shoot instead of a pass.

What do you guys think? Is it better this way?

Considering how rare goals are in the game and how much money teams spend on finding players who can put the ball in the net, it makes sense to maximise every possibility of scoring a goal. A tap-in from a metre out is much more likely to go in than a ping from 30 metres.

It’s not as entertaining I suppose, but when you watch the highlight reel you miss the 50 shots from outside the box which missed.

 

[meamth]

Most of that decline is probably down to Coutinho no longer spraying the Kop with 10 shots a game

Is it better this way? I'm not sure... I found myself watching this video the other day, & I thought to myself, as fun as it is to see a beautifully worked team goal, there's nothing I enjoy more than just an absolute bullet of a shot from distance. Sure, more often than not they end up missing the target, but when they go in...


Also, any excuse to post this, as it's my favourite goal for a LONG time.


I love long shots.

Fair to say that long shots are the most entertaining and glorious type of goal to score. But as teams becoming more competitive, long shots chances became the 2nd option in the premier league.

I don't think this is applicable in other league apart from the BPL though.

 

[Trizy]

The game has gotten more tactically defensive. As soon as you get the ball in a shoot position outside the box in most games you're closed down within a second by 1 or 2 men? Or maybe teams have just gotten better overall.

I also feel the amount of free-kicks that are scored nowadays are far fewer than before. Maybe it's just because we're shite at FKs though.

 

[Bogman]

I reckon the changes to the footballs has contributed.
If I think back to playing 20 years ago. The balls didn't spin as much and take off so easily.
Nowadays it's harder to get the ball to dip down again when you put power behind it.

The upside is that you don't feel like you've been battered by Mike Tyson after heading it a few times.

 

[FujiVice]

There were some absolute bangers in the world cup in the summer.

 

[Theafonis]

I think there’s also a lack of players who can hit it from 40-yards out.

 

[prateik]

I was thinking about this the other day... Remembered we had Nani, Ronaldo, Rooney, Scholes.. All consistently took long shots and were pretty decent too.

Now, the only one I semi trust from distance is Pogba.. Rashford occasionally has a pop.. Valencia's goal from last season is still fresh in my memory because it happens so rarely.

 

[AbduRaheem]

Everyone loves a long shot. It's what makes you stand on your feet and go craaaaazy. Leading up to a goal everyone expects it, but long shots is what we really live for.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

I was thinking about this the other day... Remembered we had Nani, Ronaldo, Rooney, Scholes.. All consistently took long shots and were pretty decent too.

Now, the only one I semi trust from distance is Pogba.. Rashford occasionally has a pop.. Valencia's goal from last season is still fresh in my memory because it happens so rarely.

Matic scored a great goal from outside the box last season too.

And that’s about it...

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Also, any excuse to post this, as it's my favourite goal for a LONG time.


I love long shots.

Is that recent? Outrageously good. Few things in life are sweeter than goals which go bottom of crossbar -> ground -> roof of net.

 

[Sky1981]

More to do with tactics evolving. Its pretty packed in the middle nowdays with teams likely to field an aggresive dm to cover the long range shot area.

I'd guess they teach more on team possession in youth academy in most team.

Football in the 90s dominated with 442 means more open gameplay which is why we looks more attacking and entertaining back then.

 

[Tommy]

Is that recent? Outrageously good. Few things in life are sweeter than goals which go bottom of crossbar -> ground -> roof of net.

Aye few months back in a league game.

 

[Zehner]

Tactical advancements. It is the same with tackles. Of course flying into someone is more spectacular but in 90% of the time staying on your feet, closing down lanes and delaying the attacker so that a mate can come to help you out is the better option. Long shots may be beautiful but they have below average success rates and are more of a last resort if you can't break the opponent'S defense for whatever reason.

Not too long ago the EPL was pretty poor from a tactical point of view despite its insane spendings. Kick and rush, pretty much. No positional play, no pressing, just empty midfields and this typical box to box game, almost like a handball match. That's not the case any longer and longshots among othre things become rarer thanks to it. But on the other hand I'm pretty sure the EPL will dominate Europe in the next decade. I believe it is only a matter of time until an English club wins the CL again - and not by fluking it like Chelsea but through really being the best team in the cmpetition at that time.

 

[Rory 7]

This is such a hipster thread

 

[Darlington Padgett]

Since Sir Alex we've barely scored from long shots...I don't recall many players attempting to do so since Mourinho.

 

[youmeletsfly]

You also need to take in consideration that defenses are not that open anymore. There isn't that much space to hit a long one.

Also you have much much less time on the ball and teams are much more aware of players that have a good shot and mark them closer.

 

[Adisa]

There has been a general decline in low probability football over the years, direct corners, long shots, corsses, long balls etc.

 

[Buster15]

There has been a general decline in low probability football over the years, direct corners, long shots, corsses, long balls etc.

That's a fair point.
Another factor is the counter attacks which are pretty common now.

Attacking at pace often results in beating defenders inside the penalty area and squareing the ball to another attacker.

What I really mean is that it is more difficult to hit a ball really hard when you are running fast with it.

 

[deafepl]

Rashford tried long shots 4 or 5 times last season and hit all woodwork as it has not gone in the net

 

[Number4.]

Ball changes making the strike more difficult (blending accuracy and power) Defenders blocking lines more assutely. Cast your mind back to LFC under Rodgers when trying to force a result, the slip match being the obvious one showed long shots redundant in general play.

 

[BBRBB]

There was a statistical analysis about long shots posted here a year or two ago.

On average long shots lead to a goal about 2% of the time invariably of the quality of the team and an average possession 2.5% if I remember correctly. So most teams were better off recycling possession and only the worse at scoring from other means should shoot a lot from range.

Clubs do analyse such stats and and coaches adapt accordingly.

 

[Peyroteo]

There was a statistical analysis about long shots posted here a year or two ago.

On average long shots lead to a goal about 2% of the time invariably of the quality of the team and an average possession 2.5% if I remember correctly. So most teams were better off recycling possession and only the worse at scoring from other means should shoot a lot from range.

Clubs do analyse such stats and and coaches adapt accordingly.

2% of the time results in a goal, 10% of the time results in a corner, sometimes it will result in a freekick, penalty or create a chance.... and sometimes the team won't lose the ball at all. People act like a shot was a waste unless it ended in a goal when that couldn't be further away from the truth.

It's not like losing the ball to a goal kick is a big problem in this sport, possession is not that valuable. All in all, it's impossible to quantify things like that.... Crossing, set pieces and long range attempts are seen as low percentage football, lots of people act like it's not even a part of the sport but plenty of teams make it work.

The biggest cause for the decline of long range goals are the changes in the ball, it doesn't swerve in the air as much as it used to.