The idea of penalties not holding any value?

[Jericholyte2]

Did I miss a memo around about the idea of getting and scoring plenty of penalties being a bad thing?

Now I get that scoring from general play is, in general, preferable to ‘relying’ on set pieces but when did it suddenly become popular to devalue penalties?

Surely if our attackers are clever enough to force a mistake out of a defender, leDing to us having a clear goalscoring opportunity, that would surely be something commendable, or have I missed something?

 

[JPRouve]

What is the context of your question? Who devalue penalties? Aren't you mixing the idea that when you want to compare two players goal output, it's fairer to exclude penalties since they are a scoring opportunities that the taker often didn't create?

 

[Jericholyte2]

What is the context of your question? Who devalue penalties? Aren't you mixing the idea that when you want to compare two players goal output, it's fairer to exclude penalties since they are a scoring opportunities that the taker often didn't create?

All I seem to see on the board is talking about lack of goals from open play, how we’re reliant on penalties, how it’s both an element of luck and an indictment of our players. So my question is why, if our attackers are winning penalties with regularity, would we see that as a bad thing?

 

[adexkola]

Relying on the judgement of the ref and VAR staff seems suboptimal. You will never be able to control that variable

 

[Class of 63]

Sounds like the third/fourth reply in a thread entitled "We all know Ole only got United to third place last season because we got more than our fair share of penalties, so should we sack him now because we all know we won't get anywhere near as many this season will we?"

 

[JPRouve]

All I seem to see on the board is talking about lack of goals from open play, how we’re reliant on penalties, how it’s both an element of luck and an indictment of our players. So my question is why, if our attackers are winning penalties with regularity, would we see that as a bad thing?

In that context it's simply because it's not a reliable source of goals, it's not replicable and they depend a lot on subjectivity of the referee. If you are given a penalty you take it but from an analytical standpoint there is nothing to say about them

 

[Lentwood]

I think most fans feel uneasy about us 'relying' on penalties because there is an element of luck involved i.e. even if they are legitimate penalties, it relies in most cases on a mistake by the defender, for example an mis-timed tackle.

Also, the strange thing about penalties in football is that I would say that a large percentage of all penalties scored wouldn't have resulted in a goal, if the foul hadn't taken place. For example, think about the three we have had so far this season...we most likely wouldn't have scored against Luton had Moncur not committed a daft foul, I don't think Maguire's header against Brighton would have gone in with or without Maupay's handball and I'm not sure the angle was great for Martial to score against Spurs had Sanchez not tripped him.

 

[Ballache]

All I seem to see on the board is talking about lack of goals from open play, how we’re reliant on penalties, how it’s both an element of luck and an indictment of our players. So my question is why, if our attackers are winning penalties with regularity, would we see that as a bad thing?

Not a bad thing but unless you get 2 penalties/Match, it's not a reliable source of goals.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

I think most fans feel uneasy about us 'relying' on penalties because there is an element of luck involved i.e. even if they are legitimate penalties, it relies in most cases on a mistake by the defender, for example an mis-timed tackle.

Also, the strange thing about penalties in football is that I would say that a large percentage of all penalties scored wouldn't have resulted in a goal, if the foul hadn't taken place. For example, think about the three we have had so far this season...we most likely wouldn't have scored against Luton had Moncur not committed a daft foul, I don't think Maguire's header against Brighton would have gone in with or without Maupay's handball and I'm not sure the angle was great for Martial to score against Spurs had Sanchez not tripped him.

Yeah, agree with this. Not all penalties are created equal. If we’re swarming the opposition box and the opposition are forced into a series of desperate blocks/tackles then a penalty would be giving us the result we deserve (thinking of that spell of pressure against Sevilla, for example)

A brainless handball at a set-piece (e.g. the two handball penalties that Pogba has conceded) or a completely unnecessary sliding tackle (e.g. yes, him again) doesn’t tell us anything about how well the team that wins the penalty is playing.

You also need an excellent defensive record to progress up the table when a large proportion of your goals come from penalties. Even if you break records for the most penalties in a season it still won’t be near enough to win the majority of your games without goals from open play too. Our start this season has been a great example of poor results despite winning more penalties than most.

 

[Siorac]

Also, the strange thing about penalties in football is that I would say that a large percentage of all penalties scored wouldn't have resulted in a goal, if the foul hadn't taken place. For example, think about the three we have had so far this season...we most likely wouldn't have scored against Luton had Moncur not committed a daft foul, I don't think Maguire's header against Brighton would have gone in with or without Maupay's handball and I'm not sure the angle was great for Martial to score against Spurs had Sanchez not tripped him.

Exactly this. Getting penalties in itself says very little about a team's ability to create goalscoring opportunities. If a disproportionate amount of important goals - goals that open the scoring, equalisers, winners - are from penalties, it indicates that we're probably not that great at creating chances.

 

[Champ]

People only devalue penalties if they want it to suit their arguement.
It's a similar issue to scoring against lower level opposition, that gets devalued, as does scoring the forth goal in a 4-0 victory.

Yet they all count the same.

Penalties are often more difficult to score then the instinctive first time finishes due to the pressure.

 

[Cloud7]

I think most fans feel uneasy about us 'relying' on penalties because there is an element of luck involved i.e. even if they are legitimate penalties, it relies in most cases on a mistake by the defender, for example an mis-timed tackle.

Also, the strange thing about penalties in football is that I would say that a large percentage of all penalties scored wouldn't have resulted in a goal, if the foul hadn't taken place. For example, think about the three we have had so far this season...we most likely wouldn't have scored against Luton had Moncur not committed a daft foul, I don't think Maguire's header against Brighton would have gone in with or without Maupay's handball and I'm not sure the angle was great for Martial to score against Spurs had Sanchez not tripped him.

This is probably the best summary as to why being ‘saved’ by penalties is nothing to be happy about that I’ve seen. I haven’t been able to put it into words but you captured it all here.

 

[Grande]

Goals all have the same value if they lead to points or wins.

what you’re really talking about here is the value of the play that leads or doesn’t lead to a penalty or a goal in any other way. Winning the shooting stats have no value in itself, but it is valuable to know if you should shoot more or less the next games, or work on olays that give you better shooting positions. Likewise, it’s valuable to find out if we need to improve the strategies that lead to penalties. Have we been lucky with fluke situations and bad decisions, or are we creating goal scoring opportunities that force the pens?

Quite contrary to what Sly Mou likes to repeat, the last year has seen us given a lot of pens not due to luck, but rather due to VAR leading to more fouls in the box being called. Most of United pens have resulted from speedy combination play, through balls and dribbles. Rashford, Martial and Bruno have qualities that leads to this, but also James, Greenwood can draw fouls by beating opponents.

What I wish for, is that we become even better at that kind of plays: If Martial gets 10 cm on a defender in the box, it likely leads to a 50/50 tackle, if he gets 30 cm it may lead to a pen, if he gets 50 cm, he gets a clear shooting opportunity close to goal. That’s what we want to see more and more often, and a penalty goal, like a shot in the corner from 20 metres, is a just reward and a sign that we’re getting closer to those positions.