Top 4 race / race abandoned (or maybe not) / Leicester & Chelsea in the process of bottling it

[Havak]

Can see Leicester collapsing again sadly. I kind of hope they stay in though, as I think Brendan deserves it for most of his work so far and their scouting network is outstanding. If they fail again though, you would have to say they have basically ended up with what they deserve, however harsh that sounds.

I have had a sneaking feeling that Chelsea will win the Champions League for a while now - I wish I'd put them on earlier when they were playing Atleti. So, if they end up 5th (where I had them at the start of the season) it wouldn't matter if they won the thing instead. I also fancy them to take a game off City, whether it be the FA Cup or Premier League.

Everton are serial bottlers, so I don't think they'll get anywhere near in the end. West Ham will finish above them, as will the other teams currently above them in Leicester, Chelsea and Liverpool. I wouldn't be surprised if even Spurs finish above Everyone despite looking awful at times lately.

As for ourselves, echoing thoughts of other Caf members, I think it would be good progress if we can finish 9 points or less behind the winners this season and cement a strong second place finish. It would surely mean we have gone well over 10 Points better than last season. The aim would then have to be doing that again next season which could lead to a title.

 

[Jericholyte2]

I'd ideally want Leicester to drop out of the top 4 so the likes of Ndidi might get itchy feet, looking for CL football after seeing Leicester miss out 2yrs in a row.

 

[Theo88]

But it’s not like us winning all 7 remaining fixtures is certain. Especially if we play semifinal of the EL in between some of those

We've done it before. A man can only hope!

 

[diarm]

After yesterday and looking at their last 3 fixtures, Leicester need 4 wins from their next 4 games against West Brom, Palace, Southampton and Newcastle you feel. Anything less than that and they're going to miss out again.

 

[Alemar]

We've done it before. A man can only hope!

I am fully in favour of such scenario!

 

[rotherham_red]

We won't take our foot off the pedal in the league until we've played Leicester on May 11th, IMO. If we win out in the three games preceding that (Burnley, Leeds, and Liverpool) and then avoid defeat against Leicester, then we'll have mathematically assured ourselves of 2nd place, no matter what anyone else does.

 

[Lee565]

Liverpool have 2 real tough games with leeds straight after the champions league tie and united, if they can pick up 4 points from them two games then they will surely make top, though I think the west Brom game could be a potential points dropped match as they seem to be finding form all of a sudden.

 

[OrcaFat]

Hmm, just did the predictor for the rest of the season. I felt I did it very impartially and ended up with:

West Ham -72
Liverpool - 69
Leicester - 68
Chelsea - 68

Big gap to Spurs on 61 and Arsenal/Everton on 59.

Those predictions had the following records for the remaining games:

West Ham - 5 wins (Newcastle, Burnley, Everton, WBA, Southampton), 2 draws (home Chelsea and away Brighton)

Liverpool - 5 wins (Leeds, Newcastle, South, WBA and Palace), 2 draws (us and Burnley - both away)

Leicester - 3 wins (WBA, Palace, Newcastle), 3 draws (away to Southampton and Chelsea, home to Spurs) and 1 loss (at Old Trafford)

Chelsea - 4 wins (Brighton, Fulham, Arsenal, Villa), 2 draws (away to West Ham and home to Leicester), 1 loss (away to City)

Shows how tight it will be. Those H2Hs between WH/Chelsea and Chelsea/Leicester could be critical.

I still think you’re asking a lot of West Ham there. They’ve had a great season but Newcastle is the only game that would really surprise me if they lost. They won’t lose all the others of course but I’d be amazed if they don’t lose at least two. I don’t think they’ll make top 4.

 

[Samid]

We will be out of the top 4 by the time we play Spurs. Spurs could well be leapfrogging us when we play them.

 

[Djemba-Djemba]

feck me that guy is negative.

Absolute misery.

 

[roonster09]

feck me that guy is negative.

Absolute misery.

Check his post history, always moaning about something and only posts when we drop points.

 

[Djemba-Djemba]

Check his post history, always moaning about something and only posts when we drop points.

I'd say he was a WUM but he's been on the Caf for 15 years so it's a long troll job that.

What a relentlessly miserable person, bloody hell. Like you said every single post he's moaning or predicting defeat. If we're on a bad run of form he's here every day and if we're on a good run he disappears. He's like Glaston.

You know what, I've changed my mind he is a WUM.

 

[Doracle]

I still think you’re asking a lot of West Ham there. They’ve had a great season but Newcastle is the only game that would really surprise me if they lost. They won’t lose all the others of course but I’d be amazed if they don’t lose at least two. I don’t think they’ll make top 4.

Southampton and Burnley should also be relatively easy wins given their form. I’d still expect them to beat WBA and they’ll be favourites against Everton. I agree though that they are unlikely to do quite as well as I’ve predicted but the reality is that others are also likely to drop a few more points. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if they miss out but the fixtures really couldn’t be much better for them.

 

[Kentonio]

Our run in is pretty horrible. West Ham, City, Arsenal, Everton and Villa isn't great for us, especially with the FA Cup game and CL games added in. West Ham, Liverpool and even Leicester have much smoother schedules. It's going to be a hard fight to make it.

 

[mark clatternburg]

I would love to wade in and talk us up, but I reckon we’ll miss out on The Champions And First Three Losers League. I’d rather win the cup, but the players dont seem to have the chemicals.

 

[Noodle]

Our run in is pretty horrible. West Ham, City, Arsenal, Everton and Villa isn't great for us, especially with the FA Cup game and CL games added in. West Ham, Liverpool and even Leicester have much smoother schedules. It's going to be a hard fight to make it.

I agree, i don't think we'll make it given Liverpool and West Ham's run in, even if Leicester capitulate. Would be nice to win the CL league though, which as crazy as it seems is more likely to me!

 

[AltiUn]

If I've learned anything from this thread it's that no one thinks their team is going to make top 4 we'll have to rope in Arsenal and Leeds to take the spots if we're not careful.

 

[Dancfc]

Our run in is pretty horrible. West Ham, City, Arsenal, Everton and Villa isn't great for us, especially with the FA Cup game and CL games added in. West Ham, Liverpool and even Leicester have much smoother schedules. It's going to be a hard fight to make it.

If it was a title race i'd agree but the reason we're all battling for top 4 is because many games haven't run as smoothly as they should have done on paper.

 

[CG1010]

My prediction is it would be one of Leicester/West Ham and one of Chelsea/Liverpool.

 

[Djemba-Djemba]

Our run in is pretty horrible. West Ham, City, Arsenal, Everton and Villa isn't great for us, especially with the FA Cup game and CL games added in. West Ham, Liverpool and even Leicester have much smoother schedules. It's going to be a hard fight to make it.

Yeah I don't think you'll make top 4.

Best bet is going all in on winning the CL, and I do think you have a chance there actually.

 

[JinnerJamie]

I agree, i don't think we'll make it given Liverpool and West Ham's run in, even if Leicester capitulate. Would be nice to win the CL league though, which as crazy as it seems is more likely to me!

Is this pessimistically optimistic a thing with all Chelsea fans, this seems to be a prevailing theme whenever I hear them speak?

 

[Noodle]

Is this pessimistically optimistic a thing with all Chelsea fans, this seems to be a prevailing theme whenever I hear them speak?

I always err on the side of pessimism, that way you less likely to be disappointed. If i had to rate our chances i'd say we're more likely to win the ties needed to get the CL than get the required results out of City, Arsenal, Leicester, West Ham etc

Although neither are odds on

 

[Zaphod2319]

Is this pessimistically optimistic a thing with all Chelsea fans, this seems to be a prevailing theme whenever I hear them speak?

Not with this fan. I think we make top 4. It is a mix of us winning and everyone involved is dropping games that are head scratchers. It truly is a box of chocolates, but we are playing well despite that fluke game against WBA.

 

[WeePat]

Our run in is pretty horrible. West Ham, City, Arsenal, Everton and Villa isn't great for us, especially with the FA Cup game and CL games added in. West Ham, Liverpool and even Leicester have much smoother schedules. It's going to be a hard fight to make it.

When you isolate each of those games, I would probably go into each one, except City, thinking we have a better chance of winning the game than the opponent. I think we'll beat West Ham, lose to City and win the rest.

 

[Keanes Magic Hat]

When you isolate each of those games, I would probably go into each one, except City, thinking we have a better chance of winning the game than the opponent. I think we'll beat West Ham, lose to City and win the rest.

If you could actually beat City and lose the rest that would be great

 

[BorisManUtd]

Our run in is pretty horrible. West Ham, City, Arsenal, Everton and Villa isn't great for us, especially with the FA Cup game and CL games added in. West Ham, Liverpool and even Leicester have much smoother schedules. It's going to be a hard fight to make it.

I reckon you'll beat Everton and Villa comfortably but Brighton and even Fulham could potentially be more difficult than it looks on the paper. Brighton aren't safe yet (though the chances of them getting relegated are very slim) and they are difficult to play against. Fulham will probably give their all as well. Can see you beating West Ham and Leicester too, Arsenal may be tricky one just for the fact that it's a derby.

 

[Lee565]

As refreshing as it would be see west hame finish in the top 4, it wouldn't surprise if they were knocked out in the pre champions league qualifying stages

 

[FootyGirl88]

As refreshing as it would be see west hame finish in the top 4, it wouldn't surprise if they were knocked out in the pre champions league qualifying stages

There is no qualifying stages, they would go straight into the group stages.

 

[reddev3]

I still think you’re asking a lot of West Ham there. They’ve had a great season but Newcastle is the only game that would really surprise me if they lost. They won’t lose all the others of course but I’d be amazed if they don’t lose at least two. I don’t think they’ll make top 4.

You know they have Lingard right?

 

[Lee565]

There is no qualifying stages, they would go straight into the group stages.

Oh ok, guessing that is down to the new format next season.

 

[Infra-red]

You know they have Lingard right?

Exactly. West Ham will probably be favourites for next season's CL.

 

[FootyGirl88]

Oh ok, guessing that is down to the new format next season.

Its been in place since 2018

 

[SinNombre]

Arsenal have no business being there mate and you've left out Milan who are ahead of Juve and Atalanta. Ajax also in with a shout in that Next 8 tier imo and personally I'd have the likes of Sporting Lisbon and Porto over Arsenal as well. Arsenal barely scraped past a middling Benfica who are 3rd in Portugal at the moment.

The tiers are not just based off current league standings but more based off performances over last 18 months including expected points, and team quality.

Milan are overperforming relative to performances.

Arsenal are underperforming relative to performances and have a terrible manager (much like Chelsea under Lampard).

Ajax I agree with, deliberated between them and Villarreal/Arsenal

 

[RU Devil]

Looks like Arsenal will advance in the Europa League.

Imagine a scenario where top 4 was Man City, Man United, Leicester, and Liverpool, followed by Chelsea, West Ham, and Spurs. Then imagine Spurs win the Carabao Cup (ensuring a place in the Conference League) and Chelsea win the CL, while United & Arsenal get the Europa final. If Arsenal win, they actually knock out Liverpool into the Europa League & West Ham out of Europe (assuming Soton doesn't win the FA Cup). I'm sure most United fans would want to win the final, but some wouldn't be too heartbroken to lose it. Rather delicious.

 

[Bertie Wooster]

I've got so used to wanting a draw in games like this for United's benefit, that I can't get used to wanting a winner this time. Especially as I can't really decide which would be better from a keeping Liverpool and Chelsea out the top four point of view.

Spurs have a point extra, but Everton have a game in hand. Who do others want to win it from a United point of view?

 

[Cal?]

Looks like Arsenal will advance in the Europa League.

Imagine a scenario where top 4 was Man City, Man United, Leicester, and Liverpool, followed by Chelsea, West Ham, and Spurs. Then imagine Spurs win the Carabao Cup (ensuring a place in the Conference League) and Chelsea win the CL, while United & Arsenal get the Europa final. If Arsenal win, they actually knock out Liverpool into the Europa League & West Ham out of Europe (assuming Soton doesn't win the FA Cup). I'm sure most United fans would want to win the final, but some wouldn't be too heartbroken to lose it. Rather delicious.

That in itself is unrealistic.

 

[Zaphod2319]

All help from other chasing teams appreciated!!

 

[OrcaFat]

Southampton and Burnley should also be relatively easy wins given their form. I’d still expect them to beat WBA and they’ll be favourites against Everton. I agree though that they are unlikely to do quite as well as I’ve predicted but the reality is that others are also likely to drop a few more points. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if they miss out but the fixtures really couldn’t be much better for them.

Sounds like WH were unlucky today and I did say I’d be surprised if they lost this one. I think all their other games are at least as tough as Newcastle. But sure they will win a few, it’s going to be very tight.

 

[MU655]

Don't think West Ham will get it. Chelsea or Liverpool for me.

 

[gajender]

Don't think West Ham will get it. Chelsea or Liverpool for me.

Most probably both would get in just don't see Leicester lasting the race.