Trump's Foreign Policy

2cents

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Worth a separate thread I think.

Many who opposed Trump's general assholeness found consolation in some of his statements on his proposed foreign policy, namely a willingness for dialogue with Russia, an apparent reluctance to engage in regime change, an indication on breaking the neo-con/liberal interventionist hold of the Beltway think tanks, and a tougher stance on ISIS and those allies who have helped facilitate its rise - some have even called him an isolationist, but 'America First' seems to describe it best.

At the same time, he has described himself as "the most militaristic" guy going, wants to roll back the Iran deal (and bomb them if they piss him off), seemingly doesn't feel any real responsibility to respect America's alliances, including the mother of them all NATO, or have an appreciation of the seriousness of the nuclear balance, and generally seems completely in awe of military power.

Here's his keynote speech on Foreign Policy made back in April:


So how will it play out? Is there a coherent worldview there, or has he just been saying what his base wanted to hear? How much of this stuff will/can he implement, and how much opposition might he face from the establishment foreign policy hacks who seem to dominate Washington?
 

Raoul

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Worth a separate thread I think.

Many who opposed Trump's general assholeness found consolation in some of his statements on his proposed foreign policy, namely a willingness for dialogue with Russia, an apparent reluctance to engage in regime change, an indication on breaking the neo-con/liberal interventionist hold of the Beltway think tanks, and a tougher stance on ISIS and those allies who have helped facilitate its rise - some have even called him an isolationist, but 'America First' seems to describe it best.

At the same time, he has described himself as "the most militaristic" guy going, wants to roll back the Iran deal (and bomb them if they piss him off), seemingly doesn't feel any real responsibility to respect America's alliances, including the mother of them all NATO, or have an appreciation of the seriousness of the nuclear balance, and generally seems completely in awe of military power.

Here's his keynote speech on Foreign Policy made back in April:


So how will it play out? Is there a coherent worldview there, or has he just been saying what his base wanted to hear? How much of this stuff will/can he implement, and how much opposition might he face from the establishment foreign policy hacks who seem to dominate Washington?
I think he will calm down significantly from his campaign rhetoric and do a decent job in most foreign policy areas. I expect him in particular to take an unexpectedly hard line with Russia after he gains access to some information that he will over the next few weeks.
 

The Firestarter

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I think he will calm down significantly from his campaign rhetoric and do a decent job in most foreign policy areas. I expect him in particular to take an unexpectedly hard line with Russia after he gains access to some information that he will over the next few weeks.
My concern is he appears to be lacking basic geopolitical understanding, and as a result, has quite a childish view of the world. Thus I am not sure he will adequately process and understand the essence of the mentioned intelligence briefings. I sincerely hope I am wrong.
 

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My concern is he appears to be lacking basic geopolitical understanding, and as a result, has quite a childish view of the world. Thus I am not sure he will adequately process and understand the essence of the mentioned intelligence briefings. I sincerely hope I am wrong.
If he puts Gingrich as SecState as some have suggested, I think he will be fine. Newt is pretty smart on all of this. Trump will of course surround himself with good people. I'm curious as to who will be SecDef.
 

The Firestarter

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If he puts Gingrich as SecState as some have suggested, I think he will be fine. Newt is pretty smart on all of this. Trump will of course surround himself with good people. I'm curious as to who will be SecDef.
So am I. Any former brass there and I'll be bricking it.
 

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If he puts Gingrich as SecState as some have suggested, I think he will be fine. Newt is pretty smart on all of this. Trump will of course surround himself with good people. I'm curious as to who will be SecDef.
Seeing his appointments will be most interesting. Didn't he want to bring in political outsiders though?
I expect him to remove sanctions against Russia and return to good relations with them as well as stop supporting Ukraine.
And to join Russia in going after ISIS in Syria and accept that they have lost the battle for regime change.
His stance on Iran is most concerning but I think his relationship with Israel is not really clear. Some say he is pro-israel while others say he is anti-semite. I think though that he won't start any wars if only for purely economical reasons which I expect will be his prime reasoning for all matters.
 

2cents

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Seeing his appointments will be most interesting. Didn't he want to bring in political outsiders though?
I expect him to remove sanctions against Russia and return to good relations with them as well as stop supporting Ukraine.
And to join Russia in going after ISIS in Syria and accept that they have lost the battle for regime change.
His stance on Iran is most concerning but I think his relationship with Israel is not really clear. Some say he is pro-israel while others say he is anti-semite. I think though that he won't start any wars if only for purely economical reasons which I expect will be his prime reasoning for all matters.
Being anti-semitic has never prevented anyone working with Israel or the Zionist movement generally (see for e.g. Anwar Sadat).
 

berbatrick

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Being anti-semitic has never prevented anyone working with Israel or the Zionist movement generally (see for e.g. Anwar Sadat).
Reagan himself had a bit of a reputation I think.
 

2cents

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Relations with the Saudis should be fun.

Before:





Today:

 

PedroMendez

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I think his own believes are erratic, but semi-isolationist. I doubt that he cares deeply about it.

The problem with FP is, that it is usually not particularly dependent on elections. Each president can steer the country a bit in his direction, but in the end path dependency and institutions determine the general course. Significant changes of the course of each country are influenced by events and the long-term development of capabilities.
To the contrary of what many believe, I think Trump might be a rather weak president and it is easy to influence weak presidents. I think his FP will depend a lot on the people around him and won't change dramatically from the previous administrations.
Initially we'll see some policy of détente with Russia, but the long-term viability of this project will depend on his Syria policy, which might be heavily influenced by the Pentagon/military. His strategy in Syria will tell us a lot about the power-structure in his administration. I worry about a bit about the Iran deal and major unexpected events.
 

2cents

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Reagan himself had a bit of a reputation I think.
Yeah, I mean the British who gave life to the Zionist movement in the first place were mostly anti-semites who thought that by offering them what they wanted, they would draw the Jews away from the Bolshevik and Young Turk movements which they believed they controlled.
 

2cents

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Intelligence community is already feeling a sense of dread about Trump

https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...206810-a676-11e6-ba59-a7d93165c6d4_story.html

At some point today, a sober team of analysts will gather their black satchels and secure communications gear and begin making their way toward Donald Trump’s campaign headquarters to give the president-elect his first unfiltered look at the nation’s intelligence secrets.

The initial presentation is likely to be a read-through of the President’s Daily Brief, the same, highly classified summary of security developments delivered every day to President Obama. After that, U.S. spy officials will schedule a series of meetings to apprise Trump of covert CIA operations against terror groups, the intercepted communications of world leaders, and satellite photos of nuclear installations in North Korea.

The sessions are designed to bring a new president up to speed on the nation’s most precious secrets. But with Trump, the meetings will likely serve as cautious and tense introductory encounters between wary intelligence professionals and a newly minted president-elect who has demonstrated abundant disdain for their work.

A palpable sense of dread settled on the intelligence community on Wednesday as Hillary Clinton, the candidate many expected to win, conceded the race to a GOP upstart who has dismissed U.S. spy agencies’ views on Russia and Syria, and even threatened to order the CIA to resume the use of interrogation methods condemned as torture.

“It’s fear of the unknown,” said a senior U.S. national security official. “We don’t know what he’s really like under all the talk. . . . How will that play out over the next four years or even the next few months? I don’t know if there is going to be a tidal wave of departures of people who were going to stay around to help Hillary’s team, but are now going to be, ‘I’m out of here.’ ”

“I’m half-dreading, half holding my breath going to work today,” said the official, who, like others, spoke on the condition of anonymity, citing the sensitivity of the subject.

Michael Hayden, the former CIA director who in 2008 briefed a highly skeptical President-elect Obama on the agency’s counterterrorism operations, said that intelligence officials are likely to approach their initial meetings with Trump with significant consternation.

“I cannot remember another president-elect who has been so dismissive of intelligence received during a campaign or so suspicious of the quality and honesty of the intelligence he was about to receive,” Hayden said in a telephone interview Wednesday morning. The initial meetings with Trump in the coming weeks are likely to be professionally conducted, he said, but characterized by “a little caution, a little concern.”

Trump has already received at least two preliminary briefings, arranged during the campaign by Director of National Intelligence James R. Clapper Jr. But those were done out of tradition and courtesy, providing both candidates broad overviews of security issues while holding back secrets about drone strikes, eavesdropping capabilities and other covert operations.

Intelligence officials were deeply troubled early in the campaign when Trump declared that he might be inclined to instruct the CIA to resume operations to capture terrorism suspects and subject them to brutal interrogation measures, including waterboarding. That agency program was dismantled in 2009, and measures passed since then would make its resumption illegal.

Trump subsequently backed away from those comments, which were interpreted by some as empty saber-rattling.

“He could revive a program of secret prisons” overseas, said John Rizzo, former longtime general counsel of the CIA, but would likely find it difficult to get any foreign country to agree to host one.

His other problem would be convincing the workforce at the CIA to carry out his wishes. “There would be such pushback,” said Rizzo, whose confirmation as general counsel was derailed because of his participation in crafting the so-called enhanced interrogation techniques used on al-Qaeda suspects in the early 2000s. “Given what it cost the agency” in terms of reputation, “there would be extremely strong resistance.”

More recently, U.S. intelligence officials have been disturbed by Trump’s positions on Russia — his statements encouraging Moscow to seek to steal Clinton’s emails and his refusal to believe the intelligence community’s conclusion that the Kremlin was behind a cyberespionage campaign targeting Clinton and the Democratic Party.

That finding was presented to Trump in one of his early intelligence briefings, and then reinforced last month when Clapper’s office took the rare step of issuing a public statement declaring Russia complicit in the hacks.

Trump treated that determination as unfounded rumor. “I don’t know if they’re behind it and I think it’s public relations, frankly,” Trump said last month.

The absence of seasoned national security officials on Trump’s campaign staff has also been a source of concern at the CIA, the Pentagon and other agencies. His most prominent adviser with intelligence-related credentials is retired U.S. Army Lieutenant General Michael Flynn, who was forced out of his job as director of the Defense Intelligence Agency and dined with Russian President Vladimir Putin last year.

Speculation on where Flynn and former New York mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani might serve in a Trump administration added to the unease among national security officials on Wednesday. “Is Giuliani going to be our attorney general?” one official asked.

Some officials drew comparisons to earlier eras, including the administration of President Richard Nixon, that were characterized by White House hostility toward key departments and agencies — noting that the Justice Department, Pentagon and CIA survived.

What Trump has said about the CIA and the military has “put us in a difficult position, but the flip side is there is an institutional ability to survive,” said a second senior U.S. official. “Bureaucracies chug along and take lumps and have conflicts. If you ask about rank and file, for a long time there has been a sense that [presidents and administrations] come and go, but we’re still here. You’ve got to assume that the Foreign Service at State, generals at the Department of Defense, have that belief. There’s an institutional stability built into the system that can withstand spasms.”


-------------------------

Last paragraph reflects what you wrote @PedroMendez
 

Arruda

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I don't have any knowledge of how it really works, but it strikes me as unlikely that international relations are significantly dependent on how two leaders get along personally, at least not if one of them is the leader of a western democracy (i.e., Trump), who will probably have an agenda set by a lot of factors beyond his direct control.

If it were, though, I doubt that someone as experienced and powerful as Putin wouldn't be able to manipulate and seduce Donald Trump :lol: Putin probably reads Trump a lot better than otherwise.
 

Classical Mechanic

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Do you base this on anything concrete, or just wishful thinking? Has he said anything against Putin?
It is just my estimation. Two narcissistic sociopaths trying to find common ground on some hugely complex issues is not a recipe for harmony. I think the two are similar in personality in that they want to be on top regardless. I believe they will clash and badly.
 

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I think he will calm down significantly from his campaign rhetoric and do a decent job in most foreign policy areas. I expect him in particular to take an unexpectedly hard line with Russia after he gains access to some information that he will over the next few weeks.
You couldn't make this up:lol: It hasn't even taken a day till Raoul managed to turn his opinion from a man he despised during the election to "America will obviously do great in its foreign policy, no matter what".
And here was I thinking that you'd have a hart time deciding between Putin and Donald in the future.

I think the biggest changes will come in the East Asia region. The Iran situation worries me.
 
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The Firestarter

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It is just my estimation. Two narcissistic sociopaths trying to find common ground on some hugely complex issues is not a recipe for harmony. I think the two are similar in personality in that they want to be on top regardless. I believe they will clash and badly.
Putin is by far the more cunning and capable of the two. Unlike Donny, he slowly crawled his way to the top. He will say all the right things, and will be left to proceed however he wants in Europe. Again, I surely hope to be fantastically wrong.
 

Classical Mechanic

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Putin is by far the more cunning and capable of the two. Unlike Donny, he slowly crawled his way to the top. He will say all the right things, and will be left to proceed however he wants in Europe. Again, I surely hope to be fantastically wrong.
I'm no fan of Trump at all but he isn't stupid and I don't believe he will be awed by Putin as he believes he is top dog in any situation. Putin might have come up the hard way but I don't think tha will count for anything. I believe they will see through each other, dislike each other and reach an impasse.
 

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I'll wait till I see his Foreign Policy team in the WH before making any BIG statements...I think we all know who created, ran and executed the 'Bush Doctrine' - it wasn't Bush!
 

buckooo1978

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no one knows what Trumps foreign policy will be like

he can say America first but from an American point of view their way of maintaining the status quo and their preeminent position in the world is disrupting the Middle East, Supporting Israel, trying to resist the threat of Russia, forming strong alliances in Europe and in particular with countries like Poland, Romania to act as a buffer....

the elites and especially the Jewish/Zionist lobby won't want any form of isolationism from the US
 

The Firestarter

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I'm no fan of Trump at all but he isn't stupid and I don't believe he will be awed by Putin as he believes he is top dog in any situation. Putin might have come up the hard way but I don't think tha will count for anything. I believe they will see through each other, dislike each other and reach an impasse.
I am not saying it will be a dick measuring contest. On the contrary, I fully expect Putin to constantly praise Trump and make him feel superior.

And yeah. He is stupid.
 

endless_wheelies

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My concern is he appears to be lacking basic geopolitical understanding, and as a result, has quite a childish view of the world. Thus I am not sure he will adequately process and understand the essence of the mentioned intelligence briefings. I sincerely hope I am wrong.
He'll look at it the same way as he does his business, and make cutting decisions on the best way for America to proceed, rather than the let's consider this and that but maybe then this and oh well not worth the risk Obama.
 

PedroMendez

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@2cents



https://theintercept.com/liveblogs/...r-assassin-who-is-trumps-guest-at-the-debate/


(...)

Flynn’s presence in Trump’s corner means that a very sophisticated, accomplished assassin could end up in a position of tremendous authority. At a minimum, Trump’s childish awe he exhibits around military figures—especially Flynn—will make it very easy for the black ops crowd to ram through their agenda. Combined with the Christian supremacy and bigotry within Camp Trump, the embrace of the JSOC and CIA paramilitary worldview would resurrect some of the most horrendous aspects of the Bush-Cheney program and combine them with the worst of the Obama administration’s policies. Perhaps Trump would call this bipartisanship.
 

The Firestarter

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He'll look at it the same way as he does his business, and make cutting decisions on the best way for America to proceed, rather than the let's consider this and that but maybe then this and oh well not worth the risk Obama.
And doing so, he went bust several times. Only this time, there will be no banks to bail the country out. This is not some risk business venture that you try with somebody elses money. It is perfectly normal to be cautious when lives are at stake.
 

endless_wheelies

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And doing so, he went bust several times. Only this time, there will be no banks to bail the country out. This is not some risk business venture that you try with somebody elses money. It is perfectly normal to be cautious when lives are at stake.
The congress will keep him from doing anything overly stupid.
 

Dr. Dwayne

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And doing so, he went bust several times. Only this time, there will be no banks to bail the country out. This is not some risk business venture that you try with somebody elses money. It is perfectly normal to be cautious when lives are at stake.
Your posts reads as if the US has no debt and a balanced budget. :lol:
 

The Firestarter

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Your posts reads as if the US has no debt and a balanced budget. :lol:
I used a financial analogy from his business experience to illustrate the challenges he will face dealing with wide variety of issues. Fiscal policy is the least of my worries right now.
 

PedroMendez

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The new age of twitter diplomacy just started. You heard it here first. It is going to be good. The next trade talks are limited to 140 characters. offer and counteroffer:

"GIVE ME THAT!!!!11 #Iwantthiscarfactory"

"FUpendejo. #pinchetrump"