JustAGuest
Full Member
- Joined
- Jun 19, 2013
- Messages
- 742
I think you are the one being ignorant here.Kill this thread and go back to playing FM.
Stop blaming bad luck, we're terrible and our results reflect it.
I think you are the one being ignorant here.Kill this thread and go back to playing FM.
Stop blaming bad luck, we're terrible and our results reflect it.
I'm not. I just sick of people bumping this thread after every shit performance we have and treating us winning on xG like it's some moral victory.I think you are the one being ignorant here.
Right, and then when you look at it in detail it shows the same thing that people are complaining about...It's amusing to see how some people get so upset over a statistical model.
We’re fecking shite. Don’t need stats to know that.Right, and then when you look at it in detail it shows the same thing that people are complaining about...
Our non penalty xG is now the 14th highest in the league (using understat by the way), with Arsenal likely to pass us after their game. It will not have escaped anyone that we are struggling with chance creation. This is our biggest issue.
The thing is we’re not that shit relatively speaking, that’s why it is so frustrating. We’re just underperforming. Third in the league is up for grabs, but everyone aside from the top two is so inconsistent. Our results have been average because individuals keep letting us down, and the manager isn’t really helping.We’re fecking shite. Don’t need stats to know that.
We're actually good defensively though, which is a nice change. Going forward the hope is that we improve sufficiently with Pogba, Martial and Rashford all there. No depth is the problem though.We’re fecking shite. Don’t need stats to know that.
I’m afraid I have to disagree. My conclusion on what I’ve seen so far this season is that we’re absolutely cack.just thing is we’re not that shit relatively speaking, that’s why it is so frustrating. We’re just underperforming. Third in the league is up for grabs, but everyone aside from the top two is so inconsistent. Our results have been average because individuals keep letting us down, and the manager isn’t really helping.
We’re giving virtually nothing away in game after game. I’ve seen us having a truck driven through us under Mourinho at times and Ole at the end of last year. We’re comfortably better than from that, but we’re still tumescent.I’m afraid I have to disagree. My conclusion on what I’ve seen so far this season is that we’re absolutely cack.
What were you expecting with this group of players?I’m afraid I have to disagree. My conclusion on what I’ve seen so far this season is that we’re absolutely cack.
Well, the stats suggest we have been good defensively. That's a potential insight which I don't think is in line with the common consensus on here?We’re fecking shite. Don’t need stats to know that.
So good defensively that we've leaked goals in nearly every game this year.Well, the stats suggest we have been good defensively. That's a potential insight which I don't think is in line with the common consensus on here?
That's more to do with the fact that every team knows they don't have to do anything and just stay in their own half and they'll get at least a draw because we can't score goals.We’re giving virtually nothing away in game after game. I’ve seen us having a truck driven through us under Mourinho at times and Ole at the end of last year. We’re comfortably better than from that, but we’re still tumescent.
Nah, we've been good defensively. All you can do is just restrict chances as best you can but teams will always have half chances here and there, and score the odd screamer. Today we had nothing in midfield and attack yet west Ham created 1 half chance, scored and then scored a free kick from 30 yards out. That's not a chance, that's just good shot that happens.So good defensively that we've leaked goals in nearly every game this year.
So the problem is our attack isnt it? Especially with our only creative players injured.That's more to do with the fact that every team knows they don't have to do anything and just stay in their own half and they'll get at least a draw because we can't score goals.
Yeah, because a defensive performance should be weighted solely on whether you conceded a goal or not? You have to realise that football is a sport where the result doesn't necessarily reflect the performance.So good defensively that we've leaked goals in nearly every game this year.
How did you conclude that? Top teams almost always have good xG.Top teams have shir xg because they actually score.
The name alone is a sign of impotency. Expectef goals that didnt happen
That's not true, top teams create more xG than average ones and also outperform that figure.Top teams have shir xg because they actually score.
The name alone is a sign of impotency. Expectef goals that didnt happen
No it's just "expected goals". Nothing to do with them actually going in or not. It's literally just evaluating chances created and conceded.Top teams have shir xg because they actually score.
The name alone is a sign of impotency. Expectef goals that didnt happen
Data do not support what I see and I would rather trust my eyes than a sample of 6 games to tell me how we play. We don't play well in attack, that much is obvious. I don't think Mata's chance was that easy to score from. Ball was moving very fast in the air and it wasn't easy to connect with it in the right way. Maguire's chance was as good as it gets though.We are the team in the league who is under performing their expected points the most. Only Watford are even close to us in this regard.
1. United - 5.41
2. Watford - 5.34
3. Wolves - 3.45
Unsurprising to anyone who watches us but it's nice to see the data support the eye test.
p.s. Mata's open goal miss had a higher xG than every chance West Ham had us against combined.
Our problems in attack are more to do with finishing than anything else. Our target is top 4 this season and are currently the 4th best team at creating chances (miles behind City, a bit behind Liverpool and Chelsea). You will of course disagree with the stats if you don't consider Mata's miss to have been an easy chance though. By those standards basically no team creates good chances.Data do not support what I see and I would rather trust my eyes than a sample of 6 games to tell me how we play. We don't play well in attack, that much is obvious. I don't think Mata's chance was that easy to score from. Ball was moving very fast in the air and it wasn't easy to connect with it in the right way. Maguire's chance was as good as it gets though.
People should also take into account that Wolves and Soton away are relatively easy fixtures given the current state of those teams. WHam is trickier but it's not like playing any top 6 team at their ground. In contrast, Spurs have already played City, Arsenal and Leicester away.
Rashford clean break early on which he screwed up. Maguire shot from 5 yards out that was saved. For a team that doesn't create that much, these missed opportunities are killing us.We are the team in the league who is under performing their expected points the most. Only Watford are even close to us in this regard.
1. United - 5.41
2. Watford - 5.34
3. Wolves - 3.45
Unsurprising to anyone who watches us but it's nice to see the data support the eye test.
p.s. Mata's open goal miss had a higher xG than every chance West Ham had us against combined.
Fair enough. I don't have the impression that we create many chances. How are we "a bit behind" Liverpool and Chelsea I don't really understand. Chelsea created 5-6 chances against the supposedly best defence in the league yesterday.Our problems in attack are more to do with finishing than anything else. Our target is top 4 this season and are currently the 4th best team at creating chances (miles behind City, a bit behind Liverpool and Chelsea). You will of course disagree with the stats if you don't consider Mata's miss to have been an easy chance though. By those standards basically no team creates good chances.
I agree that we have had easy fixtures. I'm not trying to make out that everything is rosy at United because that's obviously far from the case.
Three chances in 90 minutes against West Ham, two of which while they were ahead and holding on to a lead? Well count me fecking in and aboard the Ole choo-choo train! In order to try to turn the game from a loss to a win we created one counter-attacking opportunity and one chance from a corner.Rashford clean break early on which he screwed up. Maguire shot from 5 yards out that was saved. For a team that doesn't create that much, these missed opportunities are killing us.
That's us in a nutshell. But you are not a good team when you create that few chances and everything depends on you taking those.Rashford clean break early on which he screwed up. Maguire shot from 5 yards out that was saved. For a team that doesn't create that much, these missed opportunities are killing us.
Not necessarily. All of our forwards aren't exactly proven to be prolific, consistent goalscorers. Bad or average teams regularly underperform the xG they create. That's one of the points of xG. Whether you have more possession or not, that doesn't make you a better team, it's same with creating more xG than your opponent, but not actually finishing your chances.Regression to the mean will happen right?
Almost always happens eventually in the long run.... Though if I would've had a guess at the start of the season, it would've been that we'd underperform our xG. We have a lot of young players. Not being clinical is entirely normal for young players.Regression to the mean will happen right?