What is currently (not) happening on the english transfer market?

[BayernFan87]

Hi guys, I wonder what are the reasons why english top clubs are spending fewer money this summer compared to the last years? After all, the transfer windows closes next week and the biggest signings of your league are arguably Rodri and Pépé.

I don't want to start stupid league comparisons, for "my" Bundesliga those signings would obviously be very huge.

Is it because of financial fair play reasons?
Is it because of the fear of the (no deal) brexit and perhaps a stricter "more english players in every team" rule?
Or do you think that there will be many big signings in the last week? I know of the rumors about you and Dybala as well as Cancelo to City, but other than that? What about Liverpool? What about the Spurs?

To verify that the lack of big transfers is not only a feeling of mine, I checked the sum of transfer fees your whole league spent this year compared to the last years. -> https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/premier-league/transfers/wettbewerb/GB1/

Let's compare the net spend of the last years:
2014: 504mio pounds
2015: 763mio pounds
2016: 763mio pounds
2017: 827mio pounds
2018: 1097mio pounds
2019: 519mio pounds


What do you think?

 

[11101]

Big spending is propped up by a few big clubs. I think those clubs have mostly overhauled their squads by now and there isn't much quality out there either.

City have pretty much got two full league winning 11s. They don't really need anyone else, it's just tinkering now.

We have tightened our spending after years of waste.

Liverpool have got the main things they need, and what they don't have isn't really out there for them to buy.

 

[RedNed77]

Just waiting I think. If we put through the three likely to happen, Maguire 80, Longstaff 40 & Dybala 60 that adds another 180m on just from us.

Spending probably won’t hit a billion this year but it’ll be roughly in line with what’s gone before 8-900m, with a TRANSFER DEADLINE FRENZY, brought to you in association with Jim White.

 

[Raw]

Well City and Liverpool have good sides that don't need that much reinforcement. Plus it seems that Liverpools owners don't want to be spending as much money this season. Spurs have broke their transfer record, and seem reluctant to spend more. Chelsea have a transfer ban. Arsenal aren't going to be spending loads (Pepe aside). We're probably going to add another 120m+ to that total if we pull our finger out.

But deadline day does bring craziness so I wouldn't be surprised to see another 200-300m added to that total with the rest of the league likely bringing in lots more players.

 

[Hammondo]

It's not just the English transfer market.

 

[Raw]

Plus I think we're reaching a point where prices have become so ridiculous that teams just aren't willing to spend, despite how much money they're making.

Harry Maguire for £80m+ for instance, I mean come the feck on. If it were a few years ago it'd be £50m at most and we'd likely pay up. But now I'm not sure we'll even get him, even though we can afford it.

 

[romufc]

Most of the top clubs have got who they need. Also, the ones that need a overhaul have wasted so much money in the past, so clubs are being cautious.

Barca - Overpaid for Dembele and Coutinho so they are cautious about spending. Plus they want Neymar back

PSG - FFP, they cannot go spending every year

Manutd - Wasted money in the past, incompetent transfer personnel.

 

[SambaBoy]

The prices are just too inflated for clubs to consider strengthening massively. The hope is probably a pleataeu in player prices in the next few years and then a decrease back to normality. Teams like Newcastle and West Ham have spent £35-45m on strikers which 4-5 years back would have fetched £15-20m max and would have left enough money to strengthen in a few other areas.

A £50m transfer budget is nothing nowadays for the majority of the teams in the Prem. How much have Sheff Utd spent? And yet they haven't really brought in any top top players, they will have to gamble on their overpriced players producing the goods but there's not much else they can do in this current market.

Clubs are probably overspending just to keep up. Has revenue increased in proportion with what clubs are now spending? I doubt it.

 

[Ayoub Dahchour]

Most of the top clubs have got who they need. Also, the ones that need a overhaul have wasted so much money in the past, so clubs are being cautious.

Barca - Overpaid for Dembele and Coutinho so they are cautious about spending. Plus they want Neymar back

PSG - FFP, they cannot go spending every year

Manutd - Wasted money in the past, incompetent transfer personnel.

Except UTD that still needing two CB and LB at least, and a RW

 

[romufc]

Except UTD that still needing two CB and LB at least, and a RW

The way we are acting in this window I cannot call us a top club. Doing business like total Amateurs.

 

[DiceRoller]

Except UTD that still needing two CB and LB at least, and a RW

In the middle of the park is where we’re seriously lacking. Would like to see at least two decent options there.

 

[jojojo]

I think we're seeing PL clubs looking at themselves as businesses. They're rich off the back of TV money, commercial income and (mostly) full stadia. They might not be rich forever, but most are now trying to at least break even to take advantage of that comfort.

FFP really only impacts clubs trying to change their status - to move from relegation fodder to safety, safety to European football. That leap to the top 6 is hard, and I suspect not many teams/owners think they can achieve it by buying top players. They have to hope for a good manager, and some good luck on timing/scouting to get a team that peak together if only for a year or so.

If you look at the top 6, they have issues of their own. If you want to buy from another PL club, they seldom have to sell. Looking abroad, the richest clubs are buying, and clubs like Atletico don't have to sell. They're all doing the calculation that says - a real upgrade in that position costs £60m/£80m/£100m (on top of whatever they can sell their current player for) - will that increase our earnings?

Throw in a couple of clubs who probably feel pretty comfortable about their squads and a couple of clubs who need to look seriously at stadium upgrades, and you're seeing businesses behaving like businesses.

Of course, there's still a week to go and United do have some shopping to do - the numbers will change. Then we'll just be left wondering why it has to happen at the end, rather than the start of the window.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

I feel that the Neymar transfer has broken the market. The asking prices for players are now so absurdly high that it's causing logjam. Specifically in the Premier League, where smaller clubs are economically buoyant, if the bigger sides want to sign a player they're going to have to pay through the nose and many transfers seem to be at a standoff.

 

[JPRouve]

I feel that the Neymar transfer has broken the market. The asking prices for players are now so absurdly high that it's causing logjam. Specifically in the Premier League, where smaller clubs are economically buoyant, if the bigger sides want to sign a player they're going to have to pay through the nose and many transfers seem to be at a standoff.

To me it doesn't really make sense because Neymar or Mbappé fees are "normal" when you consider the increase of money in football and inflation. The issue is basically that there is too much money at the bottom and not enough quality players to spend that money on which has two consequences, clubs either do not sell(because they can afford not to) or they ask for ridiculous amount of money. Football used to follow a strict pyramidal structure but now clubs can reject a world record fee because their recurring incomes are enough to cover their budget year in year out.

Edit: It's one of the consequences of the fake parity that some people rave about, smaller clubs that do not generate the revenues that they are given through prize money and TV deals, are now destroying the market.

 

[Mb194dc]

Transfer market is collapsing.

Clubs can see TV revenue has peaked.

Players realised they can run their deals down then pocket the fee as a signing on bonus.

If it means more academy players getting a chance I'm all for it. Football will go on even if the bubble pops.

 

[redshaw]

I feel that the Neymar transfer has broken the market. The asking prices for players are now so absurdly high that it's causing logjam. Specifically in the Premier League, where smaller clubs are economically buoyant, if the bigger sides want to sign a player they're going to have to pay through the nose and many transfers seem to be at a standoff.

It's TV money spread across the league, clubs can resist big fees and even put a bid of 60 million themselves. Would happen without Neymar.

The so called richer clubs can't afford to buy multiple players to swap in and out at £50-100 million except City.

 

[blue blue]

Plus I think we're reaching a point where prices have become so ridiculous that teams just aren't willing to spend, despite how much money they're making.

Harry Maguire for £80m+ for instance, I mean come the feck on. If it were a few years ago it'd be £50m at most and we'd likely pay up. But now I'm not sure we'll even get him, even though we can afford it.

I'd be very surprised if he didn't move to Utd. He's gone sick at Leicester and Utd have the cash.

I just question his ability in light of the Nations League cock up. Harsh I know, but still.

 

[Stacks]

BREXXXXXIT....CURRENCY EXCHANGE RATES........TRUMP.........IRAN TANKER CRISIS

 

[baskinginthesun]

I think each club is unique and have their own reasons. Liverpool and City have a settled squad which results in minimal investment. Chelsea are banned (they tend to spend big on a couple of players every summer), United are really trying hard to not over pay. We can fault the board all we want but, if they get the best price for a player the better. Spurs are financing a stadium and probably relying on Poch to get the best out of his squad.

Plus, I would argue that most big clubs are run by business, economists, or finance people these days and are having a look at the economic climate. There is a chance that clubs are just preparing for another recession or in the UK's case, Brexit.

 

[Tom Cato]

Hi guys, I wonder what are the reasons why english top clubs are spending fewer money this summer compared to the last years? After all, the transfer windows closes next week and the biggest signings of your league are arguably Rodri and Pépé.

I don't want to start stupid league comparisons, for "my" Bundesliga those signings would obviously be very huge.

Is it because of financial fair play reasons?
Is it because of the fear of the (no deal) brexit and perhaps a stricter "more english players in every team" rule?
Or do you think that there will be many big signings in the last week? I know of the rumors about you and Dybala as well as Cancelo to City, but other than that? What about Liverpool? What about the Spurs?

To verify that the lack of big transfers is not only a feeling of mine, I checked the sum of transfer fees your whole league spent this year compared to the last years. -> https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/premier-league/transfers/wettbewerb/GB1/

Let's compare the net spend of the last years:
2014: 504mio pounds
2015: 763mio pounds
2016: 763mio pounds
2017: 827mio pounds
2018: 1097mio pounds
2019: 519mio pounds


What do you think?

There are a few variables: Manchester Citys owner group are not feeding bottomless transfer funds into the club. Liverpool do not have available funds to invest this year. Manchester United are being blocked by high pricing - its not for a lack of trying we havent spent more. Yet.

But most importantly are the enormous TV deals that essentially make the clubs so rich they are not in a position where they must sell. Thats why transfers between Premier League clubs are so far inbetween.

 

[sun_tzu]

Let's compare the net spend of the last years:
2014: 504mio pounds
2015: 763mio pounds
2016: 763mio pounds
2017: 827mio pounds
2018: 1097mio pounds
2019: 519mio pounds


What do you think?

Well 2019 isn't over and let's say bale Maguire and a Couple of other big Deals happen plus the usual flurry of last week smaller squad deals and it would end up round a billion again still

Also pound to euro in each year makes the trend in £ look very different

2014 approx 1.25.... 630m euros
2015 approx 1.35.... 1030m euros
2016 approx 1.2.... 918m euros
2017 approx 1.15...960m euros
2018 approx....1.14... 1250m euros
2019 approx 1.10... tbc id guess we end up about 900 to 1bn euros