When will we be back to normal? - place your bets

[Pogue Mahone]

I think for a lot of semi-older people, the thing that allows them to work happily from home was built on the social life of the workplace in their mid 20s. Every single one of my friends met their partners through work or social events organised by work. It'll be pretty weird if that gets taken away.

Not a single one of my friends met their partners through work or work social events. So there’s obviously a lot of variety out there in terms of work and social lives. I’d say there’s regional, as well generational, differences at work here too.

I live in a fairly small city where it’s easy for a network of university and school friends to keep socialising, despite none of them working together, but big enough for most of them to find permanent jobs in the same city. If they had all had to scatter to different parts of the world to get work (which happens to most Irish people not from Dublin) then I’m sure works forms a more important part in their social lives.

 

[acnumber9]

I’ve been thinking about this recently. Would younger me have enjoyed working from home? Hell yes, was my considered conclusion. I don’t think it’s about age, so much as how your perceive your job/colleagues. Other than a couple of years as a junior doc I’ve always kept my work and social life completely separate and found socialising with work a chore. Conversely, I know there are people at my current job (of all ages) who are finding life very hard without the social interactions they get at work. This “new normal” is fantastic for people like me, shit for people like them. No idea what the ratio is between these two types of people.

Yeah, circumstances will dictate a lot of that. I was able to work from home a couple of days a week prior to Covid so I thought it was a nice balance. I’ve been going stir crazy quite a lot. Though that would obviously be lessened if there weren’t other restrictions. I think I would’ve missed a lot of that was the norm throughout my life though. Many of my best friends are people I met at work when I was young. If you were beginning your working life now, that kind of thing wouldn’t happen anymore.

 

[Sparky Rhiwabon]

I’ve heard Easter (April) is the aim for some sort of normality, maybe summer for full normality, although I wouldn’t be surprised to see some form of restrictions brought back next winter.

Of course, flexible working (mix of home working and face-to-face where needed) will become more the norm, but that was happening anyway - COVID just accelerated it.

 

[jojojo]

Everything is about the vaccines really. If they (including those still at trial) work, if production ramps up as planned, if rollout is smooth then the UK and most of Europe will start changing in Q2.

With the advantage of summer, and a more outdoor life restarting - I think Q3 in Europe will feel pretty normal. Some travel restrictions, social distancing, PPE will still be in place - but they won't feel nearly so onerous. Cricket and rugby stadium capacity at 50% maybe, live music returning. Not totally normal perhaps, but less painfully weird.

If the vaccination program has gone well, that new stability will continue into winter (despite going back indoors) and 2022 will see things back to a new normal (structural changes being incorporated). If the vaccination program hasn't gone well, then nothing will be normal for years - but more people will act as though it is.

 

[Tibs]

I predict one more lockdown in Jan...but then, as vaccination against the most vulnerable ramp up, falling R rate, things will go back into a Tier 2 situation for 2-3 months....I hopeful that End Feb/Early March things will be much more 'normal'

Basing this on vaccines/reducing risk of hospitalisations and death numbers amongst most vulnerable.

 

[Vidyoyo]

Not soon and I'm expecting some big dynamic shifts and not pretty ones without proper support.

For a start, city centres need investment in things that aren't office space or shops. This whole situation has pushed more people to online shopping and I don't think people's behaviour in this sphere will change quickly. Other businesses will probably want to reduce costs just in case so I see a lot moving to smaller places outside of cities, which is actually kind good but you need better transport for workers. E-car infrastructure? Yes please!

I hope the government get their twitchy arses tooo and push re-training as one of the big things next year. I think it'll be chaos if not because a lot of graduates and workers have been made redundant with the situation not exactly looking promising for them. Could be a big wealth divide.

Expect universities will suffer massively too, which I'm not fussed about as most are crap and do lots of pointless research.

 

[GloryHunter07]

Some things will never go back to “normal” but i suspect it wont be until Spring / Summer 2022 before we are really through it and people stop talking about it.

 

[FootballHQ]

I can see a bit of normality in the summer tbh as long as it's a hot one.

When you look back to July and August then cases fell pretty dramatically in many areas and this was only shortly after the first apocolypse of it. Pretty sure aswell that face masks on public transport only became mandatory from early June.

15th June

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/...g-in-on-monday-will-help-keep-passengers-safe

So with all that it was promising how things levelled out from July though August before the big spike at start of September when education returned and acted as big super spreader.

Big unknown is next winter if the vaccine dosen't guarentee immunity for that long but I'm optimistic for May onwards given decent % of population will have had the jab by then. Dosen't mean though we'll all be moshing again at festivals and having mass gatherings watching the euros but let's hope for less restrictions around at least.

One other yardstick foe me is when can I go and watch a match at Villa Park with 42k other people. Even August 2021 still feels pretty optimistic so no clear idea on that, possibly 2022 although hope not.

 

[djembatheking]

When will the next Glastonbury festival be?

 

[FootballHQ]

When will the next Glastonbury festival be?

Scheduled for June 23rd

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-55315202

I can see some major festivals going ahead but with reduced capacities, Glasto at full strength is way over 100k camping isn't it, same for Download which I go to most years.

Incredible the amount of smaller festivals all around the U.K these days, some of those sadly won't be seen again.

 

[Sarni]

Q3 this year felt basically normal or close already here. If we can get to that next year that would be okay. Then towards the end of year full normal, I wish I am able to get my annual Autumn trip for a game at Old Trafford by then.

 

[Scarlett Dracarys]

Summer 2021

 

[Wibble]

Q3 this year felt basically normal or close already here.

Only because they were letting the virus run free.

 

[Wibble]

Summer 2021

The danger is vaccination combined with the summer decline that is likely will result in restrictions being lifted too fast IMO.

 

[SinNombre]

The danger is vaccination combined with the summer decline that is likely will result in restrictions being lifted too fast IMO.

If the majority of vulnerable and exposed have been vaccinated in another 6 months, it won't be too fast.

R0 will be well below 1 in that scenario.

 

[Wibble]

If the majority of vulnerable and exposed have been vaccinated in another 6 months, it won't be too fast.

R0 will be well below 1 in that scenario.

Will it? Vaccinating young people is likely to bring the overall Ro down faster I would have thought as the Ro in that demographic is likely to be the highest. Whichever group you vaccinate first in the end you will need to vaccinate sufficient people to reach HIT to get the R0 below 1, unless you also have significant mask/distancing/other restrictions in place still (that are adhered to).

We don't even really know what HIT is yet, 65% if we are very lucky and more likely 80%, and we have to factor in which vaccines are used, their effectiveness and how far from sterilising they are.

 

[DOTA]

We shouldn't stop using masks entirely. Anyone with cold symptoms should wear masks when indoors and in public from now on. They always should've. It's a tiny thing that makes a big difference to influenza/coronaviruses/rhinoviruses and presumably some of the less common cold causing viruses.

 

[BluesJr]

We shouldn't stop using masks entirely. Anyone with cold symptoms should wear masks when indoors and in public from now on. They always should've. It's a tiny thing that makes a big difference to influenza/coronaviruses/rhinoviruses and presumably some of the less common cold causing viruses.

Agree and hope this is accepted going forward.

 

[Dancfc]

I think it will happen quicker than people think (unless all the Covid conspiracy theorist turn out to be right )

As soon as the vaccine starts to show a clear positive affect on the hospital/death numbers not even the biggest goody two shoes is going to be actively wanting to carry on living with restrictions.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

I think it will happen quicker than people think (unless all the Covid conspiracy theorist turn out to be right )

As soon as the vaccine starts to show a clear positive affect on the hospital/death numbers not even the biggest goody two shoes is going to be actively wanting to carry on living with restrictions.

A lot of people are being careful because they’re worried about ending up dead (or being responsible for dead relatives) not because they’re “goody two shoes”. That worry won’t go away until they/their relatives have had the vaccine.

 

[Dancfc]

That worry won’t go away until they/their relatives have had the vaccine.

And then won't want to live with restrictions once they hit that point alas my point entirely.

And regarding"goody two shoes" I didn't mean people that did what was needed I meant morons like one's who reported/shamed people for having exercise longer than an hour, reporting/shaming people doing things that was highly unlikely to cause any sort of outbreak (like playing Tennis) or cheering on the police when they arrested someone for sitting on a park bench far away from the nearest person.

 

[SinNombre]

Will it? Vaccinating young people is likely to bring the overall Ro down faster I would have thought as the Ro in that demographic is likely to be the highest. Whichever group you vaccinate first in the end you will need to vaccinate sufficient people to reach HIT to get the R0 below 1, unless you also have significant mask/distancing/other restrictions in place still (that are adhered to).

We don't even really know what HIT is yet, 65% if we are very lucky and more likely 80%, and we have to factor in which vaccines are used, their effectiveness and how far from sterilising they are.

Are you talking from an Australian perspective? You likely are right if so but I was thinking more from an American/Western European perspective.

Realistically, and almost every study has come up with a similar number, at least 20% of the US population has had it and another 1% is contracting it weekly. You are very likely going to hit 40% if not 50% by early summer. A lot of them would be younger since they are the likeliest to not follow restrictions.

Vaccinating another 100m is very realistic which is 30% of the population and even with overlap between the 2 groups, I think we are looking at 65% of the American population having either had it once or having been vaccinated.

Of course, if immunity from those sources only lasts a few months, then humanity will never get back to fully "old normal".

 

[VeevaVee]

They're already having massive concerts in Wuhan. I can't see how it won't be exactly the same as it was, eventually. Although with a lot more WFH, so not exactly.

 

[VeevaVee]

I think it will happen quicker than people think (unless all the Covid conspiracy theorist turn out to be right )

As soon as the vaccine starts to show a clear positive affect on the hospital/death numbers not even the biggest goody two shoes is going to be actively wanting to carry on living with restrictions.

Yeah, get my parents and grandparents shot up (and everyone else's), and I'm socialising

 

[Wibble]

Are you talking from an Australian perspective? You likely are right if so but I was thinking more from an American/Western European perspective.

Realistically, and almost every study has come up with a similar number, at least 20% of the US population has had it and another 1% is contracting it weekly. You are very likely going to hit 40% if not 50% by early summer. A lot of them would be younger since they are the likeliest to not follow restrictions.

Vaccinating another 100m is very realistic which is 30% of the population and even with overlap between the 2 groups, I think we are looking at 65% of the American population having either had it once or having been vaccinated.

Of course, if immunity from those sources only lasts a few months, then humanity will never get back to fully "old normal".

I think the modelled estimates of 15%+ are rather optimistic as confirmed cases are only around the 2% mark. In any case that doesn't mean that everyone who had covid had an immune reaction to it, or that when they did it was comparable to that produced by a vaccine in all cases. So the vaccination requirements of hard hit countries like the UK and US won't be that different to places like Australia. You will have to assume that everyone needs immunising. For what it is worth Australia is planning to immunise 100% of adults who can take it (and don't refuse it) by the end of 2021 and I'd think our borders will be in effect closed until then.

That said the US and UK (and elsewhere) have been so careless with people's lives I have little doubt they will likely relax things far too early. Look at the shit show in the US and UK now?

 

[christy87]

I think once the vaccines are up and running and can be kept immune for long-term, we will all forget about this pretty fast, might just be reminded about it if you need booster shots every few months.

 

[calodo2003]

Q3 this year felt basically normal or close already here. If we can get to that next year that would be okay. Then towards the end of year full normal, I wish I am able to get my annual Autumn trip for a game at Old Trafford by then.

A true false dawn, just like the vaccines will mostly be.

 

[calodo2003]

Agree and hope this is accepted going forward.

People are far too stupid, vain, narcissistic, ignorant (insert whatever negative term here) to do this without categorical punishment if they don’t. It should be mandated, such a shift in society, but those idiots among us will continuously push back due to their loss of ‘freedom.’

 

[worldgonemad]

I reckon with this new varient, socially maybe by the end of next year. By that I mean full capacity sporting events and pop concerts {maybe with temperature screening on entrance} that would also mean unlimited groups meeting at the pub etc.

From an economic perspective I think maybe 2 or 3 years after next. By that I mean shops and offices open at the same levels of occupancy as now, hospitality open with no fear of closure so investment returns.

Medically things will take years for the NHS to catch up, cancelled treatment numbers must be off the scale now, and that's for things as serious as cancer. My aunt had her leg amputated last December and still can't get physio. She's just had a scan cancelled to diagnose if she has dementia.
I hope I'm wrong and things improve more quickly, but even in the best case scenario it will be middle of next year before our vulnerable are safer