Will English teams do well enough in Europe to earn the league a 5th CL place?

sullydnl

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Explainer for how the additional CL places are awarded here.

Essentially it comes down to how well teams from a given country do in the CL, EL and ECL this season, with points given based on teams' results and how far they progress. If England finishes in the top two, 5th place in the league this season will get you CL football.

The standings as of yesterday:

1. Germany, 12.93
2. Italy, 12.86
3. England, 11.88
4. Spain, 11.81
5. Belgium, 9.8
6. France, 9.42
7. Czechia, 9.25
8. Turkey, 9.00
9. Denmark, 8.50
10. Netherlands, 8.20

Remaining teams for the big four:

Germany - Munich, Dortmund, Leipzig, Leverkusen, Freiberg, Frankfurt.

Italy - Inter, Napoli, Lazio, Milan, Roma, Atalanta, Fiorentina.

England - Arsenal, City, Newcastle, Brighton, Liverpool, West Ham, Villa.

Spain - Real, Barca, Atletico, Sociedad, Betis, Villareal.

It also adds to the importance of the Newcastle/Milan game, as Newcastle making it to the knockout stages at an Italian team's expense would help a lot.

And obviously from our current perspective 3 points off 5th place, this could be the difference between us having CL football next season or not.
 

Bastian

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Well, City are favourites for the CL and Liverpool are surely favourites for the EL.
 

sullydnl

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Gator Nate said:
United failing to even drop down into the Europa League does not help England's standing.
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Yep. I had thought a silver lining of no EL was that we can focus on the league, but it could happen that us bombing out of Europe ends up being the difference between the PL getting that extra CL place or not.

Especially as the competitions are judged equally, so a run in the EL is worth as much as the equivalent run in the CL.
 

Todd

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At this point, I have more confidence in the English Collective to fare well enough to secure that extra CL spot for EPL teams than I do in our own club being able to scratch their way to at least 5th this season, so I'm not sure it matters.

The EPL will probably get the extra spot in the end and we'll finish 6th.
 

DJ_21

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So let me get this straight… we have to want our 2 rivals to win there European competitions if it’s gonna help us get CL by finishing 5th this season? I’d rather us miss out on CL then want our 2 rivals to win anything. If we’re not good enough to finish top 4. Then we don’t deserve to be in it anyway.
 

Markolan

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England and Spain for the additional spot imho.

- My Italy is pretty much out of contention this year. AC Milan will most likely end dead last, we won just once in 22 years in England.
Napoli, Inter, Lazio will be unseeded teams in the UCL draw so we might see all of them eliminated in the UCL Round of 16 given the quality of group winners this year.
Roma, Atalanta, Fiorentina might do well in the other two cups but it's not enough to compete for the first 2 spots in the country ranking.

- Spain, on the contrary, will have FOUR seeded teams in the UCL draw (Madrid, Barcelona, Atletico, La Real) so, given the quality of the unseeded team in it, they might go all far in Champions League.. Villarreal and Betis chances to win the UEL are decent as well, they're the classic teams you see in the final rounds..

- Germany: Bayern, Leverkusen and Frankfurt for sure are among the favourites to win each competition but Berlin is already out and I think the likes of BVB, Leipzig and Freiburg will crash early.

- England: City favourite to win UCL, Liverpool favourite to win UEL, Aston Villa favourite to win UECL, very few teams can stop them.. One english team in each final would be enough to get tons of points and secure to finish top2 in the country ranking without even considering the likes of West Ham, Arsenal and Brighton that can do relatively well (EDIT: And I forgot Newcastle that will most likely play in the Europa League... Welp, close the thread already)

That's how it will end:
1. and 2. Spain /England
3. Germany
4. Italy
 
Last edited:

rcoobc

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Todd said:
At this point, I have more confidence in the English Collective to fare well enough to secure that extra CL spot for EPL teams than I do in our own club being able to scratch their way to at least 5th this season, so I'm not sure it matters.

The EPL will probably get the extra spot in the end and we'll finish 6th.
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I said before season start that we'd finish 6th but I now think 6th is optimistic
 

giorno

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England will make it yeah, teams in EL/Conference are too good and will rack up the points, plus City and Arsenal might genuinely be the two best teams in the CL as well. At least one will go deep

Spain and Germany to compete for the other spot
 

Rooney in Paris

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Markolan said:
England and Spain for the additional spot imho.

- My Italy is pretty much out of contention this year. AC Milan will most likely end dead last. Napoli, Inter, Lazio will be unseeded teams in the UCL draw so we might see all of them eliminated in the UCL Round of 16 given the quality of group winners this year.
Roma, Atalanta, Fiorentina might do well in the other two cups but it's not enough to compete for the first 2 spots in the country ranking.

- Spain, on the opposite, will have FOUR seeded teams in the UCL draw (Madrid, Barcelona, Atletico, La Real) so, given the quality of the unseeded team in it, they might go all far in Champions League.. Villarreal and Betis chances to win the UEL are decent as well

- Germany: Bayern, Leverkusen and Frankfurt for sure are among the favourites to win each competition but Berlin is already out and I think the likes of BVB, RB Leipzig and Freiburg will crash early.

- England: City favourite to win UCL, Liverpool favourite to win UEL, Aston Villa favourite to win UECL.. Three finals are enough to get tons of points and secure to finish top2 in the country ranking without even considering the likes of West Ham, Arsenal and Brighton that can do relatively well

That's how it will end:
1. and 2. Spain /England
3. Germany
4. Italy
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I think this is the most likely, yeah.
 

Snow

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Wouldn't surprise me to see all of the Italian teams left in the CL knocked out next round. The best of the lot got beaten in groups by the worst of the 1st placed teams. Don't see Arsenal, City, Barca, Real, Bayern or Atlético going out to any of them. Napoli or Lazio vs Sociedad would be close.

English teams are favorites for the EL and ECL.

Germany will give Spain and England a good competition.
 

WeePat

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All the good work Chelsea, City, Liverpool have done over the years undone by United and Newcastle :nono:
 

Markolan

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Markolan said:
England and Spain for the additional spot imho.

- My Italy is pretty much out of contention this year. AC Milan will most likely end dead last, we won just once in 22 years in England.
Napoli, Inter, Lazio will be unseeded teams in the UCL draw so we might see all of them eliminated in the UCL Round of 16 given the quality of group winners this year.
Roma, Atalanta, Fiorentina might do well in the other two cups but it's not enough to compete for the first 2 spots in the country ranking.

- Spain, on the contrary, will have FOUR seeded teams in the UCL draw (Madrid, Barcelona, Atletico, La Real) so, given the quality of the unseeded team in it, they might go all far in Champions League.. Villarreal and Betis chances to win the UEL are decent as well, they're the classic teams you see in the final rounds..

- Germany: Bayern, Leverkusen and Frankfurt for sure are among the favourites to win each competition but Berlin is already out and I think the likes of BVB, Leipzig and Freiburg will crash early.

- England: City favourite to win UCL, Liverpool favourite to win UEL, Aston Villa favourite to win UECL, very few teams can stop them.. One english team in each final would be enough to get tons of points and secure to finish top2 in the country ranking without even considering the likes of West Ham, Arsenal and Brighton that can do relatively well (EDIT: And I forgot Newcastle that will most likely play in the Europa League... Welp, close the thread already)

That's how it will end:
1. and 2. Spain /England
3. Germany
4. Italy
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Well things have already changed quite a lot compared to what I wrote 2 hours ago.. For sure England chances have dropped while Germany and Italy have increased. BVB as group winner and AC Milan in the UEL.. both should go far..

Anyway the draws on monday will say a lot more, useless to make assumptions now. Arsenal v Copenhagen and Arsenal vs PSG would not be the same thing
 

Red Star One

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I was 100% dead certain England would take the 5th spot but after today I’m not so sure anymore. Can be quite close
 

stefan92

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To add some facts, after today it looks like this:

Germany 13.357 - 6/7 still in competition
Italy 13.142 - 7/7
England 12.125 - 6/8
Spain 12.062 - 6/8
France 10.416 - 6/6
Belgium 10.200 - 4/5

So as of now England and Spain have to catch up to Germany and Italy and have the disadvantage that less teams can take part.

France might have an outsider chance to do something, Belgium is probably irrelevant, I just cut off this post at 10 points.
 

saivet

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Will depend on how the draws go but I'd still fancy England to get into the top two with City/Arsenal doing well in the CL, Liverpool in the EL and Villa in the Conference.
 

RedRocket9908

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saivet said:
Will depend on how the draws go but I'd still fancy England to get into the top two with City/Arsenal doing well in the CL, Liverpool in the EL and Villa in the Conference.
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Looking at the draw pots for the last 16 there doesnt really seem to be anyone who Arsenal or City will be worried about drawing other than maybe Inter Milan.

 

kaiser1

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RedRocket9908 said:
Looking at the draw pots for the last 16 there doesnt really seem to be anyone who Arsenal or City will be worried about drawing other than maybe Inter Milan.

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Arsenal vs PSG will be tasty
 

noodlehair

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I don't even understand how the CL works next season and not entirely convinced I care.

Arsenal won't be able to sustain both a league and a CL push and will blow both if they don't prioritise one (which if they have any sense will be the league). Liverpool will feck the europa off in a heartbeat if they're in a title race, and Villa will probably have remembered they are Aston Villa by February
 

noodlehair

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Red Star One said:
It’s easier than it seems but I’m too drunk to explain now, but in general I’d say it’s a good change
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There's one group but you only play some teams or something. It sounds like a crappy way to protect the more lucrative teams from being eliminated.
 

RedRocket9908

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noodlehair said:
I don't even understand how the CL works next season and not entirely convinced I care.

Arsenal won't be able to sustain both a league and a CL push and will blow both if they don't prioritise one (which if they have any sense will be the league). Liverpool will feck the europa off in a heartbeat if they're in a title race, and Villa will probably have remembered they are Aston Villa by February
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Its one league with 36 teams, all teams play 8 games (4 home and 4 away) against teams with a similar co-efficient and everyone has played their games the top 8 go through to the last 16 while teams positioned 9 through to 24 go in to a playoff round with the 8 winners of that joining the top 8 in the last 16.
 
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