Why can't we hit a barn door?
xG and finishing under ETH
- Thread starter Samid
- Start date
Only today no?
Because we are simply not good enough/lacking quality all around. Keeper's made some good saves, but we haven't created anything spectacular even if we had 30+ shots.
But the first time we've faced a park the bus team at home. We'll be facing loads of these in the league soon.
3.87 
We had about 4 xg in that game. Plenty of clear cut chances. Was just one of those days, xG vs actual goals tends to even out and it has nothing to do with "performance", it's just variance
That's fine. We had almost 4 xG. It would be a concern if we weren't creating chances, but we absolutely battered them, just kept missing our chances. The performance outside of the final shot was as dominant as you can have basically.
We’ve been finishing well in the league. Feels like you’re starting a couple of negative EtH threads. Maybe I’m paranoid but nothing to do with Ole?
Randomness.
We haven't been doing that well on the xG front in our games so far (albeit with caveats like tough fixture run, bedding new players in, players getting used to the system etc.). 9th overall in terms of xG and 5th in the table.
Creating xG but not finishing it isn't a big deal, the finishing will come naturally.
We haven't been doing that well on the xG front in our games so far (albeit with caveats like tough fixture run, bedding new players in, players getting used to the system etc.). 9th overall in terms of xG and 5th in the table.
Creating xG but not finishing it isn't a big deal, the finishing will come naturally.
We've outperformed our xG so far this season.
Liverpool had 4xG and put 7 past Rangers did they not?
It's painfully obvious we need a striker.
We've known that since ETH took over though.
We've known that since ETH took over though.
Liverpool had 2.39 yesterday. United are as high as 4.15 tonight.
Liverpool managed 3.81 in the 9-0 earlier this season too.
We are so inefficient.
Variance, also they had 2.24 xg
Rashfords shot when through on goal was so bad the referee was convinced it had to have had a deflection for a corner! There was no other explanation
But playing v parked buses would be a worry if we didn’t create. It doesn’t make sense to be worried when we create higher quality chances tonight than we have in our entire season combined so far
Will it?
Watching the Wreck It Ralph era, Jan to May this year, we still have Bruno and Rashford looking to the stars wondering how on earth they missed the chance of the moment.
Instead of missing chances as a minority, it seems to be the vast majority we miss.
Too much shooting from outside the box or insane angles. Ronaldo, Rashford and Bruno guilty of this.
This is where peps city are just the masters - of passing the ball into the net by making the right pass instead of insane shooting.
This is where peps city are just the masters - of passing the ball into the net by making the right pass instead of insane shooting.
Rashford, Fred, Antony+Rashford's rebound - all were chances that *should* be scored.
We fecking tonked them.
That was quite funny. He was quick to blow up after the corner was taken. He had visions of Neil Lennon going tonto into the refs room after the game.Rashfords shot when through on goal was so bad the referee was convinced it had to have had a deflection for a corner! There was no other explanation
Rashford.
Obviously this team has been focusing on possession. They've improved a ton there but when they do possess it feels like a siege because the air and corner games are terrible and our wingers/backs are not coordinating well.
I think the next thing we see them focus on is the wingers/backs, get them playing well together and the middle will open up.
As to the air game... I don't see that getting better until we find a striker. And here's an honorable mention for Casemiro who seems to have pretty good instincts so maybe we start seeing him finish an occasional header.
I think the next thing we see them focus on is the wingers/backs, get them playing well together and the middle will open up.
As to the air game... I don't see that getting better until we find a striker. And here's an honorable mention for Casemiro who seems to have pretty good instincts so maybe we start seeing him finish an occasional header.
Our NP:G-xG in the league this season is +1.1.
Our NP:G-xG in the Europa league before today is -0.2.
Our NP:G-xG in the Europa league before today is -0.2.
Wouldn't read too much into the xG tonight because this was basically a pub team who had no intention of leaving their penalty box all game. So it should be a given that we create a lot against this level of opposition.
But it's a familiar story at home against parked buses post Fergie. Just having no clue how to put the ball in the net. We scored 8 goals against Liverpool, Arsenal and City from a combined xG probably lower than we had tonight. For me the real issue is the mentality the players have in games where we are the clear favorites. They're just not focused enough in the decisive moments. There is a sense of complacency where the players think the goals will come automatically. Boils down to a lack of professionalism imo.
We squandered really good chances vs Everton too, like the Casemiro header.
Only thing I could think today is that we have the perfect striker on our books and he'll probably never play for us again. Him in this team would be lethal.
Exactly.
There is nothing to worry about. Our forwards need some confidence and the goals will come.
Clearly what we've been working so far is how to move the ball to create chances. You can already see good progress here.
Finishing isn't improved with training/coaching. It's about confidence and a bit of luck. Put forwards simply were out of luck today, and I'm actually quite happy this happened in this game.
Edit: well if Ronaldo is the only fit striker this season, then that clearly is a huge worry.
Even after 90 minutes I felt confident we will finally score tonight. We had so many chances and were so dominant, I tought all game that it will come.
expected goals was ridiculous tonight.
But looking at the bigger picture it the first time we are well structured and playing with purpose since SAF. I am enjoying it under Ten Hag.
expected goals was ridiculous tonight.
But looking at the bigger picture it the first time we are well structured and playing with purpose since SAF. I am enjoying it under Ten Hag.
Has done well this season. Nobody scores every match. 1 in 2 is is quality striking for a winger.
XG had us at 1.83 that game for our 2 goals.
Feck me sideways if i understand this xg crap you're talking about.
Sometimes they go in, sometimes they don't.
Ilitiga, "dikod uđe, dikod ne uđe"
Sometimes they go in, sometimes they don't.
Ilitiga, "dikod uđe, dikod ne uđe"
Because we have a geriatric Ronaldo who needs chances laid on a plate for him nowadays, Rashford who couldn't finish his own dinner, Sancho who would rather dribble around the back of the goal than put the ball in it, and our only half decent striker in Martial who is permanently injured.
He has, but it doesn't take away from the fact that he misses a lot of chances.
He doesn't actually. Over the course of his career his goal totals have matched his XG (if not bettered them).
It happens. I'm the first to say that he isn't a main striker because he doesn't convert enough of his chances but he is good of the left.
You expect a winger to score 10-15 goals a season a striker needs to do at least 20.
I wouldn't put it down to a 'lack of professionalism' myself but I'd agree with it being a focus issue of some sort. Specifically I would argue that this patience of playing our passes and the tactical instructions etc are 'new' to them and I know it's a cop out to say but part and parcel of the process. It's a fine line but ultimately it is more encouraging than a concern imo. Before, under Ole and Mourinho, whenever we came unstuck, we would throw the kitchen sink, where we would reap the short term gains but achieve nothing. Whereas performances like tonight are all about sticking to the 'philosophy' because it is the blueprint for the long term. The more the players believe 'the pass will come and we will make the better chance', the less they feel the need to snatch at chances and the higher the focus. Also it puts on full view where exactly are the areas where we lack quality. Dalot being iffy again, Lindelof looking 'comfortable' against two buses in Everton and tonight but vulnerable in any 1-on-1 situation, 37 year centre forward etc.
Excellent post, if a little tentative. You need to factor shot pace and direction into your, ahem, model…
xG is such a mindlessly stupid stat dreamt up by TV to drum up interest and talking points for fan interaction and the fans have swallowed it hook line and sinker.