Storeytime 2012/13

The White Pele

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Current Standings:

United + 3
City + 1
Chelsea -4


Graph:

Seedings:

Top 4: City, United, Chelsea, Arsenal
Bottom 5: Southampton, Reading, Norwich, QPR, Aston Villa

Seedings to be reviewed after sufficient number of games.

Win all home games (57)
Lose away against top 4 (0)
Draw away against middle 11 (11)
Win away against bottom 5 (15)

Total points: 83

How it works:

Storeytime seeks to eliminate any anomalies in the Premier League standings arising from the fixture schedule.

For those teams chasing the title, each match played has a 'par score' of 0, 1 or 3 points for a loss, draw or win respectively. The difference between the actual results and the 'par' results are accumulated and give rise to an alternative Premier League table.

For example, 2 seasons ago Chelsea had a relatively easy start to the season and therefore found themselves with a lead in the actual Premier League standings. However, the Storeytime scoring system reflected the fact that their position was false due to an easier set of fixtures and they were not on course to finish ahead of their rivals.

Last season, Tottenham were not as well placed in the title race as some were suggesting around Christmas time.

Last seasons thread:
https://www.redcafe.net/f7/storeytime-337481/

As the season progresses, the Storeytime standings will converge to the actual premier league standings. This thread is most useful in the early stages to keep track of how well each team is performing relative to the difficulty of their fixtures.

Season Forecast:


Using the original seedings it is predicted that United will take the lead in the title race after 10 games and hold that position for most of the season. City in particular are predicted to be playing catch up after falling behind in the early stages of the season.

 

Scrumpet

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Tough to pick the bottom 5. Probably best not to worry about it too much and then adjust it when the season is in full flow.
 

FlawlessThaw

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The predicted bottom 5 seems ok now but we will need to adjust it as the season goes along.
 

The White Pele

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Scrumpet said:
Tough to pick the bottom 5. Probably best not to worry about it too much and then adjust it when the season is in full flow.
Click to expand...
Yes, last seasons table dictates that QPR and Wigan should be down there but I see improvements for them this term, whilst Norwich and Swansea both losing their managers could see them struggle.

It's difficult at the top also but I felt fairly confident in picking United, City and Chelsea. Arsenal despite their changes are always there or thereabouts as proven last season.

The chasing four (Newcastle, Spurs, Liverpool, Everton) - Newcastle will do well to repeat last year, Spurs have lost Modric and have a new manager, Liverpool will improve but have the most ground to gain and Everton won't sustain a challenge.
 

antohan

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Storey should have got this patented :lol:

Good effort on the op image, although I liked the Teddy Bear from last year better. Very cute and had that story-telling spin to it: "Arsenal Champions 2011-12".

Best-selling ficition at Waterstones.
 

peterstorey

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'It's for the Arsenal and we're going to Wembley'
Bottom five has been impossible to predict of late.

My handicap:

Top 4.: Arsenal. Chelsea, City, United. Win home & lose away. 9pts
Next 4: Newcastle, Spurs, Everton, Liverpool. Win home and draw away. 16pts.
The rest: Win home and away 72pts

97 pts so a -10 will probably win it.
 

Liam147

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antohan said:
Storey should have got this patented :lol:

Good effort on the op image, although I liked the Teddy Bear from last year better. Very cute and had that story-telling spin to it: "Arsenal Champions 2011-12".

Best-selling ficition at Waterstones.
Click to expand...
Couldn't we get a picture of a photoshopped RVP instead?

I agree with the OP's handicap. Of course it'll inevitably change when West Ham are top after ten games.
 

ghaliboy

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Read this a bit last year and was quite interesting.
Will try to follow it more this year.
 

antohan

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Irwinwastheking said:
Should have been left to Storey.
Click to expand...
I felt the same initially, adds banter and comedy value. But in fairness to TWP, he did a good job of picking up the baton and updating through last season after Storey gave up on it and started talking about ref-adjusted tables by the end of August :lol:
 

Irwinwastheking

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antohan said:
I felt the same initially, adds banter and comedy value. But in fairness to TWP, he did a good job of picking up the baton and updating through last season after Storey gave up on it and started talking about ref-adjusted tables by the end of August :lol:
Click to expand...
peterstorey said:
To be fair TWP took it up and ran with it. It's his table now and he can choose the handicap to go with.
Click to expand...
Ah, fair enough.
 

The White Pele

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After 3 Matches:

Current Standings:

Chelsea +2
City 0
Arsenal 0
United -1

Graph:
 

Rowem

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Liverpool and Spurs are in the same category as Wigan, doesn't seem right to me..
 

The White Pele

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Current Standings after 5 matches:

Arsenal + 1
United + 1
Chelsea 0
City -2

Graph:
 

The White Pele

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Current Standings after 9 matches:

United +3
Chelsea +2
City +2
Arsenal -3

Graph:
 

The Neviller

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How would it look under Pete's revised handicap? That one makes sense, since the bottom lot are impossible to predict effectively.
 

Laphroaig

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Bump. We've played six of the seven best teams in the league (not counting us as the eighth), four away. City have played two, one away. And we're ahead. Nice.
 

The White Pele

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It's actually 'as you were' in the Storeytime table this week. It's a bit of a strange one because out of the games where you are expected to take 3 points, Arsenal at home is one of the most difficult on paper. Likewise, from the away matches that you are only expected to take 1 point, West Ham and Swansea seem two of the easiest to take all 3 points.

So in that respect it feels as if we have gained this week despite this scoring system showing otherwise. It certainly feels as if we should be more than 1 point ahead at this stage given some of the fixtures we have negotiated.

Regardless...

Current Standings after 10 matches:

United +3
Chelsea +2
City +2
Arsenal -3

Graph:
 

The White Pele

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The Neviller said:
How would it look under Pete's revised handicap? That one makes sense, since the bottom lot are impossible to predict effectively.
Click to expand...
For what it's worth, under Pete's system the scores would be:

United +3
Chelsea -2
City -6
Arsenal -7

I would suggest the true position is probably somewhere inbetween these two scoring systems.

The difficulty is where to draw the line in judging what is a good result away from home. The model currently being used takes the view that any win away from home is a positive result except against those battling against relegation. Pete's model says that any dropped points away from home is a bad result unless against the predicted top 4 or one of the contenders to the top 4.

Of course there are also other factors in determining what is a good result as some teams have bogey grounds and there are games such as Stoke away where a win is always a good 3 points because of the nature of the match.
 

Cal?

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A lot would depend on City not getting those late winners like yesterday...
 

surf

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The White Pele said:
It's actually 'as you were' in the Storeytime table this week. It's a bit of a strange one because out of the games where you are expected to take 3 points, Arsenal at home is one of the most difficult on paper. Likewise, from the away matches that you are only expected to take 1 point, West Ham and Swansea seem two of the easiest to take all 3 points.

So in that respect it feels as if we have gained this week despite this scoring system showing otherwise. It certainly feels as if we should be more than 1 point ahead at this stage given some of the fixtures we have negotiated.

Regardless...

Current Standings after 10 matches:

United +3
Chelsea +2
City +2
Arsenal -3

Graph:
Click to expand...
Agree with this part. For a top team, any loss is a bad result. I've long thought that a home win against another "top 4" team should be plus one and an away defeat should be -1.
 

Snow

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Now this is the Storey all about how
My life got flipped, turned upside down
And I'd like to take a minute just sit right there
I'll tell you how I became the loathed man called Wenger

In North London born and raised
On the playground where I spent most of my days

I'm not good with his kind of stuff.
 
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