US Presidential Election: Tuesday November 6th, 2012

Status
Not open for further replies.

Red Dreams

Full Member
Joined
Aug 16, 2003
Messages
55,376
Location
Across the Universe....from Old Trafford.
Ohio Early Voting Ruling: Court Orders State To Restore 3 Days Of Voting Before Elect

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/08/31/ohio-obama-early-voting-lawsuit_n_1821882.html

This should help the Democrats with Ohio.

Also a judge has thrown out the Florida ridiculous laws about restrictions on Voter Registrations.

A federal judge sided with the Obama campaign and ruled Friday to order Ohio to restore three days of early voting before Election Day, a decision that could affect the outcome of the 2012 election in a key battleground state.

Judge Peter C. Economus of the Southern District Court of Ohio granted an injunction in favor of Obama For America, the Democratic National Committee and the Ohio Democratic Party, which sued Ohio Secretary of State Jon Husted to restore in-person voting in the last weekend before the election.

"On balance, the right of Ohio voters to vote in person during the last three days prior to Election Day -- a right previously conferred to all voters by the State -- outweighs the State's interest in setting the 6 p.m. Friday deadline," ruled the court. "The burden on Ohio voters' right to participate in the national and statewide election is great, as evidenced by the statistical analysis offered by Plaintiffs and not disputed by Defendants. Moreover, the State fails to articulate a precise, compelling interest in establishing the 6 p.m. Friday deadline as applied to non-UOCAVA [Uniformed and Overseas Citizens Absentee Voting Act] voters and has failed to evidence any commitment to the 'exception' it rhetorically extended to UOCAVA voters."

After a chaotic 2004 election, Ohio passed a law allowing early in-person voting on the weekend before the election. In 2008, some 930,000 Ohioans cast votes in that period. Those who did so were more likely to be African-American. A study by Northeast Ohio Voter Advocates found blacks accounted for 56 percent of all in-person early votes in Cuyahoga County, which includes Cleveland, while they accounted for 26 percent of votes overall. In Franklin County, which includes Columbus, African Americans cast 31 percent of early votes and 21 percent of votes overall.

Early voting was curtailed in 2011, when Ohio passed H.B. 194, cutting the number of early voting days and disallowing weekend voting except for military voters. (Subsequent legislative actions have left the weekend voting restrictions in place.) Husted ordered all Ohio counties to allow early voting during weekdays until 7 p.m. in the last two days before the election, but not over the preceding weekend. All voters were given the option of sending in an absentee ballot.

The Ohio Secretary of State's office said it was still reviewing the decision, and the Obama campaign has said that it intends to issue a statement.

University of California of Irvine Professor Rick Hasen wrote on his blog that the case could wind up before the Supreme Court.
 

brad-dyrak

Full Member
Joined
Feb 28, 2007
Messages
2,431
Wouldn't be so sure about that.
http://www.salon.com/2011/08/30/gore_president_iraq/

I appreciate the article, but it comes off a bit ludicrous for me. A very concerted effort by Rove's cabal of neo-cons was about all that was going make that happen. Without that sort of concerted and coordinated orchestration it would really never have happened.

Saber rattling aside, I'm certain Gore would never have gone in. There's probably a case of whether 9/11 would even have happened on his watch in the first place, but that's a hell of a "what if".
 

brad-dyrak

Full Member
Joined
Feb 28, 2007
Messages
2,431
Just saw that Clint Eastwood speech, Christ that was a painful watch.
Yeah I'm going to skip that. I'm too enamored of his work to want to see him falling apart.

For "Unforgiven" I'd forgive him most anything.
 

Plechazunga

Grammar partisan who sleeps with a real life Ryan
Joined
May 5, 2003
Messages
51,762
Location
Where Albert Stubbins scored a diving header
I'm feeling a bit more optimistic now... it's still painfully close and the economy's still pretty terrible, but time keeps ticking, its now September and Romney hasn't done anything to turn this round. His strategy seems to be to bring out the base rather than target swing voters, but he's going to need some turnout to make that work.

That said, I'm still shitting it, what with the money advantage he's got going into the home stretch.
 

Grinner

Not fat gutted. Hirsuteness of shoulders TBD.
Staff
Joined
May 5, 2003
Messages
72,287
Location
I love free dirt and rocks!
Supports
Arsenal
Had he picked Rubio he'd be in with a shout. Ryan just got shown up by Rubio's excellent speech. Had Romney not pandered to the nutters and been centrist all along, he would have won....but never been nominated. It's crazy.
 

Red Dreams

Full Member
Joined
Aug 16, 2003
Messages
55,376
Location
Across the Universe....from Old Trafford.
I'm feeling a bit more optimistic now... it's still painfully close and the economy's still pretty terrible, but time keeps ticking, its now September and Romney hasn't done anything to turn this round. His strategy seems to be to bring out the base rather than target swing voters, but he's going to need some turnout to make that work.

That said, I'm still shitting it, what with the money advantage he's got going into the home stretch.
you are right to be worried about the money advantage.

As we know tell a lie often and loud enough people sometimes buy it.

But the one thing in the Democrats favour is, Romney only has the very conservative white voters. No minorities, few educated suburban whites. Younger women voters are running away.

The main thing is he has lost the independents.
 

Plechazunga

Grammar partisan who sleeps with a real life Ryan
Joined
May 5, 2003
Messages
51,762
Location
Where Albert Stubbins scored a diving header
Had he picked Rubio he'd be in with a shout. Ryan just got shown up by Rubio's excellent speech. Had Romney not pandered to the nutters and been centrist all along, he would have won....but never been nominated. It's crazy.
He hasn't even etch-a-sketched. It's bizarre.

I guess his numbers are telling him that moving to the centre will kill him on the right and lose him it anyway. There must be a reason - he's many things but he ain't stupid.

The advantage for the GOP is that if the economy falters again, and it rains on polling day, they have a mandate to really go to town. Repeal the ACA, rip up the welfare state, invade Iran, generally go postal.
 

Grinner

Not fat gutted. Hirsuteness of shoulders TBD.
Staff
Joined
May 5, 2003
Messages
72,287
Location
I love free dirt and rocks!
Supports
Arsenal
The problem here hopefully is him running a campaign based exclusively on polling rather than principles. Romney has a history of ditching his beliefs in a desperate attempt to get elected. He's doing the same here. I don't think a shift to the centre would necessarily lose him the right...who the feck else would the loonies vote for? Certainly not Obama.

I'm hoping that his defeat will tell sensible republicans that pandering to the right is pointless and that you can only win by moving to the middle. I could possibly get behind a Huntsman/Rubio ticket that has firmly fecked off the evangelists.
 

Plechazunga

Grammar partisan who sleeps with a real life Ryan
Joined
May 5, 2003
Messages
51,762
Location
Where Albert Stubbins scored a diving header
The problem here hopefully is him running a campaign based exclusively on polling rather than principles. Romney has a history of ditching his beliefs in a desperate attempt to get elected. He's doing the same here. I don't think a shift to the centre would necessarily lose him the right...who the feck else would the loonies vote for? Certainly not Obama.
I guess his polls are saying they wouldn't turn out quite enough. Assuming minorities vote Democratic again, he needs something like 60% of the white vote.

Grinner said:
I'm hoping that his defeat will tell sensible republicans that pandering to the right is pointless and that you can only win by moving to the middle. I could possibly get behind a Huntsman/Rubio ticket that has firmly fecked off the evangelists.
If they lose I think it'll take another cycle before the party comes back to (a few miles right of) the middle. It'll be all, "RINO Romney couldn't even beat the Kenyan Keynesian and his autocue. Bachmann-Himmler 2016."

Is Rubio alright then? I'd assumed he was a nutjob with a pretty face.
 

Grinner

Not fat gutted. Hirsuteness of shoulders TBD.
Staff
Joined
May 5, 2003
Messages
72,287
Location
I love free dirt and rocks!
Supports
Arsenal
Rubio is young...I think he'll get more sensible as he starts working more with dems and learns that he can discard the nutters in his party.

I'm just watching Dick Armey on Chris Matthews...jesus christ! It's this lot that needs to hurry up and die so we can move on.
 

mjs020294

New Member
Newbie
Joined
May 13, 2008
Messages
16,820
Had he picked Rubio he'd be in with a shout. Ryan just got shown up by Rubio's excellent speech. Had Romney not pandered to the nutters and been centrist all along, he would have won....but never been nominated. It's crazy.
It seemed a bizarre decision. However they did extensive background checks and maybe Rubio had something in his background that could have been damaging. I remember listening to a report and they questioned some of the stuff he claims about his upbringing.
 

Jaz

New Member
Newbie
Joined
May 12, 2009
Messages
9,812
Location
United Kingdom
InTrade had Clinton winning the Democrat nomination even after Ohio/Texas primaries were over, and it would have been a miracle for her to win.

In other news, everyone awaits the democrat conference.
 

nimic

something nice
Scout
Joined
Aug 2, 2006
Messages
31,834
Location
And I'm all out of bubblegum.
I guess his polls are saying they wouldn't turn out quite enough. Assuming minorities vote Democratic again, he needs something like 60% of the white vote.



If they lose I think it'll take another cycle before the party comes back to (a few miles right of) the middle. It'll be all, "RINO Romney couldn't even beat the Kenyan Keynesian and his autocue. Bachmann-Himmler 2016."

Is Rubio alright then? I'd assumed he was a nutjob with a pretty face.
Himmler would honestly not feel out of place in the Tea Party.
 

mjs020294

New Member
Newbie
Joined
May 13, 2008
Messages
16,820
Nate Silver obviously does not think much came off that GOP convention.

He has Obama up at almost 304.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
He may be right but the data he is using is far from comprehensive. The combined polls of Real Politics have the popular margin at 0.3% now; that is down over 3% in 14 days. Even their Electoral College map is very tight. There is only 30 between them, so if Romney wins Florida its all tied up.

The Romney camp and backers seem to be getting their message across where it matters. They are humanizing Mitt and fueling the apathy with Obama. The voter enthusiasm is going to be very important in this election and a large number of Obama's 2008 voters may fail to vote or even switch parties.

Its that tight now I will have to go and vote. :(
 

Red Dreams

Full Member
Joined
Aug 16, 2003
Messages
55,376
Location
Across the Universe....from Old Trafford.
Nate's analysis is a combination of polls and economic indicators. pretty solid.

I will agree voter enthusiasm on the Democratic side is not as high as in 2008, while the GOP is enthusiastic. The only advantage the Dems have is that they have greater numbers. In the end it will depend on how well both sides turn out their votes.

It will be interesting to see how well the DNC do a job at the convention. We are a couple of months from election and overall the Dems look in good enough shape.

If Obama wins it will be comfortable, but the only way Romney wins is in a landslide.....which is why I don't see him winning.
 

Plechazunga

Grammar partisan who sleeps with a real life Ryan
Joined
May 5, 2003
Messages
51,762
Location
Where Albert Stubbins scored a diving header
If Obama wins it will be comfortable, but the only way Romney wins is in a landslide.....which is why I don't see him winning.
:confused: Why? As you've just said, it's going to come down to turnout. There are perfectly plausible scenarios in which Dem turnout is down, but just good enough for Obama to squeak in, or just low enough for Romney to squeak in.

With this economy, and this GOP, no-one's winning a landslide.
 

mjs020294

New Member
Newbie
Joined
May 13, 2008
Messages
16,820
:confused: what relevant data do you think he's failed to factor in?

Not saying his probabilities are right, but I can't see how is model isn't comprehensive.
Sorry, my mistake. I though his popular vote was a combination of polls not a prediction of outcome.
 

mjs020294

New Member
Newbie
Joined
May 13, 2008
Messages
16,820
The bottom line is if they can humanize Mitt in the next two months there is a very good chance he can win. I thought they did a decent job of that at the RNC, and recent adverts in our market have been concentrating their efforts on Mitt.

The only thing keeping Obama ahead is he is far more likable and personable. The economy and his record leave a hell of a lot to be desired. People have very short memories and many don't care what he inherited, they want results.
 

Red Dreams

Full Member
Joined
Aug 16, 2003
Messages
55,376
Location
Across the Universe....from Old Trafford.
:confused: Why? As you've just said, it's going to come down to turnout. There are perfectly plausible scenarios in which Dem turnout is down, but just good enough for Obama to squeak in, or just low enough for Romney to squeak in.

With this economy, and this GOP, no-one's winning a landslide.
Romney will need to run the table. To do that he would need to win the popular vote. As I said the Democrats have greater numbers. Thus the attempt by the GOP to suppress votes in key states.

The demographics in states like Virginia, the Western States do not favour Romney. If Romney does not win Virginia on election night, you know the game is up.
 

Red Dreams

Full Member
Joined
Aug 16, 2003
Messages
55,376
Location
Across the Universe....from Old Trafford.
The bottom line is if they can humanize Mitt in the next two months there is a very good chance he can win. I thought they did a decent job of that at the RNC, and recent adverts in our market have been concentrating their efforts on Mitt.

The only thing keeping Obama ahead is he is far more likable and personable. The economy and his record leave a hell of a lot to be desired. People have very short memories and many don't care what he inherited, they want results.
this is what the GOP is banking on.

In the end people vote for someone they like. The problem for Romney is he has a limited pool of votes to mine.

Unless the Dems have a disaster of a convention, Obama will win. My bigger concern is the Senate. It will be pretty darn close. I will take 50 seats today...but I think we may get 51.
 

mjs020294

New Member
Newbie
Joined
May 13, 2008
Messages
16,820
The DNC will have little bearing either way. Not many people are too interested in learning about Obama, he is a known quantity. The debates are far more significant now. A couple of months ago Obama just needed good debates to kill Romeny off, now he needs good debates to stay ahead.
 

mjs020294

New Member
Newbie
Joined
May 13, 2008
Messages
16,820
0.3% margin (and falling) in the popular vote is hardly comfortable.

Most of the public have only just been introduced to Romney. If he holds his own in the debates and comes across OK it will remain very tight.
 

Raoul

Admin
Staff
Joined
Aug 14, 1999
Messages
130,450
Location
Hollywood CA
0.3% margin (and falling) in the popular vote is hardly comfortable.

Most of the public have only just been introduced to Romney. If he holds his own in the debates and comes across OK it will remain very tight.
The popular vote is deceptive as Obama is likely to win the election by 100 electoral votes while barely winning the popular vote. And most of the country hasn't just been introduced to Romney, unless they've been vacationing on Mars since last summer.
 

mjs020294

New Member
Newbie
Joined
May 13, 2008
Messages
16,820
The popular vote is deceptive as Obama is likely to win the election by 100 electoral votes while barely winning the popular vote. And most of the country hasn't just been introduced to Romney, unless they've been vacationing on Mars since last summer.
You over estimate how much your average Joe follows politics. The majority of people didn't take a whole lot of notice of the GOP nominee race.

The electoral vote isn't quite at a 100 margin right now. Real Politics have it 221:191 to Obama with 126 up for grabs. Romney has a big money advantage and if they run a good campaign for a couple of months it will be very tight by November.
 

Raoul

Admin
Staff
Joined
Aug 14, 1999
Messages
130,450
Location
Hollywood CA
You over estimate how much your average Joe follows politics. The majority of people didn't take a whole lot of notice of the GOP nominee race.

The electoral vote isn't quite at a 100 margin right now. Real Politics have it 221:191 to Obama with 126 up for grabs. Romney has a big money advantage and if they run a good campaign for a couple of months it will be very tight by November.
The average Joe who didn't follow politics before the convention isn't likely to suddenly begin after it. People who are interested and have access to TV and the web (ie. most of the voting public) aren't likely to have some sort of magical epiphany following Romney's robotic acceptance speech.
 

Saliph

New Member
Newbie
Joined
Jul 16, 2009
Messages
6,078
Location
Norway
Liberl echo-chamber it may be, but Colbert was fecking hilarious on Romney and Eastwood's speeches, and John Stewart came up with the killer line: Republicans are talking about an Obama only they can see.
I think it was Colbert who once said that reality has a well-known liberal bias.

I hate the false equivalence fallacy (not an indictment of you btw).
 

Plechazunga

Grammar partisan who sleeps with a real life Ryan
Joined
May 5, 2003
Messages
51,762
Location
Where Albert Stubbins scored a diving header
I didn't mean they weren't right, they were. But there is an equivalence between the two echo chambers. The US right live in world of cognitive dissonance and epistemic closure in which it's self-evidently obvious that Obama hates America, global warming is a conspiracy, the ACA is a socialist government power-grab, etc. The US centre-left live in a much more fact-based world in which it's self-evidently obvious that Obama has done what he could with the shithouse economy bequeathed to him in the impossible political climate created by the GOP, that the stimulus worked, even if it was too small, because Keynesianism is a good theory, and that the GOP has gone crazy. The similarity lies in the fact that they're echo chambers: most people don't live in them, and don't care about the noise they reverberate with.

Otherwise the population wouldn't be split virtually 50-50 on who to vote for.
 

Saliph

New Member
Newbie
Joined
Jul 16, 2009
Messages
6,078
Location
Norway
True enough.

Bill Maher's show was brilliant yesterday as well. The cnut that is Dinesh D'Souza was on, but Maher kicked his ass. I've rarely seen Maher that aggressive with an interviewee, he clearly still holds a grudge toward D'Souza.

 

nimic

something nice
Scout
Joined
Aug 2, 2006
Messages
31,834
Location
And I'm all out of bubblegum.
This is not a parody.

Large image:

Just a quick look ticks all the boxes.

- Gay Marriage
- UN
- Obamacare
- Birther (:lol:)
- Poor Mitt Romney, who was savagely attacked
- Fort Hood was Obama's fault
- Occupy Wall Street
- Got Osama not because of Obama, but because of waterboarding
- Unemployment is Obama's fault
- Debt is Obama's fault
- Poor Mubarak, friend and ally of the US
- Obama is guilty of election fraud because of ACORN
- Apparently Obama started a new Cuban Missile Crisis (:confused:)
- Obama was really mean to Birther's at the White House Correspondent's Dinner, that big meanie
- Don't ask don't tell
- THE POOR CONSTITUTION
- etc
 

Plechazunga

Grammar partisan who sleeps with a real life Ryan
Joined
May 5, 2003
Messages
51,762
Location
Where Albert Stubbins scored a diving header
538 now has Obama three points ahead in the popular vote for the first time since campaigning began, and winning 305 seats, at a probability of 73.1%.

Looks like the GOP convention has created a bounce... for the Democrats. I wonder if that will be the pattern this year: voters watch politicians speak, the other side rises in the polls.

True enough.

Bill Maher's show was brilliant yesterday as well. The cnut that is Dinesh D'Souza was on, but Maher kicked his ass. I've rarely seen Maher that aggressive with an interviewee, he clearly still holds a grudge toward D'Souza.

Maher comes across as very petty when he turns the conversation to his own problems after 9/11. Especially "I was famous and you weren't". I agree with him on most things but he is a bit of a dick.

niMic said:
Large image:
:lol: :lol:

Nice touch having the abortion activist's hands stained with blood.

Is that Soros, clutching the briefcase? And why has Bibi got some sort of industrial-sized tap on his back?

I love the 'crazy' Obama administration's list of ways to balance the budget. The first two are 'raise taxes' and 'cut defense spending'. Er, that would actually be a start in balancing the budget you cretins.
 

nimic

something nice
Scout
Joined
Aug 2, 2006
Messages
31,834
Location
And I'm all out of bubblegum.
That is indeed Soros. The site has an interactive version, where you can hover over aspects and you get a very slowly scrolling explanation of it. It's half the fun.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.