Scottish / Irish Independance

[starman]

Scotland knew there was going to be a EU referendum during their one, they would be silly to have a immediate one before waiting for things to settle.

The majority of people who voted to leave was against the constant influx of migrants. And the percentage of flow in Scotland compare to England is <500% over the last 10 years. All those who want to reside in England may well end up in Scotland if they join the EU.

Anyway, the EU is on course to collapse, many countries are going to have their own referendum over the next few years and i very much doubt they will all vote to stay.

 

[stevoc]

I certainly don't. My parents lived through those troubles, they absolutely hate the idea of a unified Ireland.

From all the older people i've spoken to from the south over the years i definitely think they would be more up for the idea of a United Ireland in the near future than the younger generation for nostalgic/romantic reasons. Possibly a bit like a large part of the leave vote in the UK were over 65.

Out of interest did your parents live in the North during the troubles?

I also think the financial implications would win over. We're not long out of a horrid recession (which still affects many rural areas in the country), why would people vote yes to taking NI back when they realize just how much it could cost us financially both short and long term?

Yeah i think you are right there. In an ideal world if NI's economy was more self sufficient and there were little chance of people up here kicking off, i honestly think the vast majority of people in the south would be all for it. In that scenario there would be little opposition.

But right now (and sadly for the forseeable future) the economical and social climate just aren't right for a United Ireland to happen. We need to sort out our economy up here first and not be so reliant on the UK and having such a high % of civil servants in our work force.

 

[Pink Moon]

Think alot of what is being said is very ignorant and political point scoring by those with clear agendas.

Not to mention over 1 million Scots voted to leave the EU and over 2 million want to stay with the UK.

In NI 340 thousand wanted to leave the EU also with more likely to want to stay in the UK.

At times of uncertainty the Union should stay together and it's important to note that millions of English people wanted to remain also but would be still be in favour of the Union.

2 million wanted to stay in the UK because they were told that EU membership was dependent on doing so. I don't know what number would still have voted had they seen this in the future but I guarantee you it would be significantly lower. They'd be able to fall back on the unionists who'd vote No even if independence was clearly the logical decision but outside of the cesspits of staunch unionism I think threats about EU membership were very decisive.

At times of uncertainty the Union should stay together

Now that's ignorant, IMO.

Tell me why I should want to stay in the union when the collective voice of my people is completely irrelevant and completely ignored? Overwhelmingly reject a tory government? Get one anyway because England says so. Vote to stay in the EU? Leave it anyway because England says so.

Scotland is a much more liberal country than England is and yet we're looking at the very real prospect of right-wing bigots within the Tory and UKIP parties controlling our country when once again we will have voted for anyone but them.

 

[acnumber9]

Unfortunately, I suspect many (if not all) Unionists in Northern Ireland would vote against one country even if it ultimately would make them economically better off.

The main Unionist party convinced almost half of the country to vote for Leave even though there was virtually zero economic benefit to that country as a whole. Moreover, they celebrated this result this morning.

It would be nice to see NI vote for what is best economically for themselves as opposed to anything else - be that to stay in the UK or not.

Leaving the UK would not be better economically or at least highly unlikely. A large percentage of our jobs are civil service jobs that would no longer exist.

 

[2ndTouch]

At times of uncertainty the Union should stay together...

 

[acnumber9]

It won't be tomorrow but I think it will happen. As long as the Catholics can outbreed the Protestants as the numbers are close to even now I think.

There's plenty of Catholics with no interest in a United Ireland.

 

[Minimalist]

There's plenty of Catholics with no interest in a United Ireland.

True that. I do think plenty of those would change their minds in light of this disaster though. Purely for career reasons and the free travel.

Unrelated but reading Belfast post offices running out of Irish passport forms. Even as a Unionist (under normal circumstances) I'm getting one myself but might have to wait by the looks of it.

 

[rcoobc]

Think alot of what is being said is very ignorant and political point scoring by those with clear agendas.

Not to mention over 1 million Scots voted to leave the EU and over 2 million want to stay with the UK.

In NI 340 thousand wanted to leave the EU also with more likely to want to stay in the UK.

At times of uncertainty the Union should stay together and it's important to note that millions of English people wanted to remain also but would be still be in favour of the Union.

This is true, but entirely backwards. You've picked and chosen the numbers to support your view quite horribly here.

The majority of Scots - 55% (2,001,926) - voted to remain part of the UK

The majority of Scots - 62% (1,661,191) - voted to remain part of the EU

In absolute numbers then, more Scots voted to remain part of the UK than voted to remain part of the EU, but in percentage terms, more Scots wanted to remain part of the EU than wanted to remain part of the UK

If, as seems certain, the UK leaves the EU, then we've forced Scotland to choose between it's two preferred options. Scotland wanted to remain part of the UK and remain part of the EU, but now we are forcing it to choose. EU or UK.

To make matters worse, much of the campaigning for the independence referendum was based on the idea that Scotland would not be able to stay part of the EU if it left the UK, but would remain part of the EU if it stayed. In effect, Scotland was lied to.

The SNP absolutely have a mandate to force another independence referendum. They were lied to in the first one, and more Scots as a percentage seem to support the EU than the UK.

 

[acnumber9]

True that. I do think plenty of those would change their minds in light of this disaster though. Purely for career reasons and the free travel.

Unrelated but reading Belfast post offices running out of Irish passport forms. Even as a Unionist (under normal circumstances) I'm getting one myself but might have to wait by the looks of it.

Yeah I think a lot of people will be looking to take advantage of their dual nationality in the coming weeks.

 

[starman]

Wales voted to leave...

 

[Minimalist]

Wales voted to leave...

Yeah but who gives a toss about the Welsh really?

 

[TheNewEra]

Yeah but who gives a toss about the Welsh really?

If N Ireland and Scotland left, I'd rather England just kick Wales out.

The country is imploding anyway.

 

[rcoobc]

If N Ireland and Scotland left, I'd rather England just kick Wales out.

The country is imploding anyway.

Just reabsorb it. It's not part of the flag anyway. Actually technically Wales is part of England. We'll just stop calling it Wales.

 

[2ndTouch]

Wales voted to leave...

Not relevant. I used this picture to point to the irony of that "sticking together in the union" argument

 

[Don't Kill Bill]

This is true, but entirely backwards. You've picked and chosen the numbers to support your view quite horribly here.

The majority of Scots - 55% (2,001,926) - voted to remain part of the UK

The majority of Scots - 62% (1,661,191) - voted to remain part of the EU

In absolute numbers then, more Scots voted to remain part of the UK than voted to remain part of the EU, but in percentage terms, more Scots wanted to remain part of the EU than wanted to remain part of the UK

If, as seems certain, the UK leaves the EU, then we've forced Scotland to choose between it's two preferred options. Scotland wanted to remain part of the UK and remain part of the EU, but now we are forcing it to choose. EU or UK.

To make matters worse, much of the campaigning for the independence referendum was based on the idea that Scotland would not be able to stay part of the EU if it left the UK, but would remain part of the EU if it stayed. In effect, Scotland was lied to.

The SNP absolutely have a mandate to force another independence referendum. They were lied to in the first one, and more Scots as a percentage seem to support the EU than the UK.

Hang on a minute, in what way were they lied to? There was going to be a referendum for the UK, if the tories won, on membership of the EU. No one said it would definitely be a remain vote did they, because what would be the point of a referendum if the rest of the UK could only vote remain?

If Scotland had left the UK then it would have left the EU and to re-join it would probably have had to join the Euro.

Now Scotland knows that Wales and England have voted to leave, Scotland will get another referendum and we will see what is most important to them staying in the UK or being in the EU and swapping the pound for the Euro. Its an interesting decision because while the single market and free movement within the EU gives much bigger scope it is the UK which is where most Scots actually move to and where most of Scotland's trade really goes. Imaginary control over your theoretical sales market in the EU which you will have to pay for. Or an actual say over that market you get subsidies for being in inside the UK.

The only people who lied to the Scots were the SNP with the fairy land budget, which fell apart as predicted.

Tough choice I admit but the rest of the UK does not have to fawn over every nuance of its decisions just to placate the Scots, you have bitched and whined enough, now show some bollocks and actually vote to leave the UK this time or shut up.

 

[Don't Kill Bill]

Wales voted to leave...

Does this mean that the Welsh are little Englanders as well I wonder?

 

[rcoobc]

Hang on a minute, in what way were they lied to? There was going to be a referendum for the UK, if the tories won, on membership of the EU. No one said it would definitely be a remain vote did they, because what would be the point of a referendum if the rest of the UK could only vote remain?

If Scotland had left the UK then it would have left the EU and to re-join it would probably have had to join the Euro.

Now Scotland knows that Wales and England have voted to leave, Scotland will get another referendum and we will see what is most important to them staying in the UK or being in the EU and swapping the pound for the Euro. Its an interesting decision because while the single market and free movement within the EU gives much bigger scope it is the UK which is where most Scots actually move to and where most of Scotland's trade really goes. Imaginary control over your theoretical sales market in the EU which you will have to pay for. Or an actual say over that market you get subsidies for being in inside the UK.

The only people who lied to the Scots were the SNP with the fairy land budget, which fell apart as predicted.

Tough choice I admit but the rest of the UK does not have to fawn over every nuance of its decisions just to placate the Scots, you have bitched and whined enough, now show some bollocks and actually vote to leave the UK this time or shut up.

They were lied to, because the "stay in the UK" politicians and media repeatedly said that Scotland wouldn't be able to stay in the EU if it left the UK, but would stay in the EU if they stayed. This was repeated over and over and over again. Now this has proven to be a lie.

As you say, now Scotland will either vote for the UK or the EU. We've made them make that choice, and I think I know which way they vote.

But personally, I consider myself British first and English second.

Alexander Bell, James Watt, Alexander Fleming, James Clark Maxwell, Golf, Sir Alex Ferguson, Robert Burns, Iain Banks (Wanted to leave the UK), JK Rowling. I consider these things British too.

So for me, I'm double heartbroken. We've left the greatest institution ever in terms of protecting workers rights, and fecked a country so that it will split into two.

Well done us

 

[JustAFan]

I would gather a large part of the Caf is against allowing Scotland or NI to hold a referendum on leaving the UK. Too important a decision to leave it up to the uniformed.

 

[Don't Kill Bill]

They were lied to, because the "stay in the UK" politicians and media repeatedly said that Scotland wouldn't be able to stay in the EU if it left the UK, but would stay in the EU if they stayed. This was repeated over and over and over again. Now this has proven to be a lie.

As you say, now Scotland will either vote for the UK or the EU. We've made them make that choice, and I think I know which way they vote.

But personally, I consider myself British first and English second.

Alexander Bell, James Watt, Alexander Fleming, James Clark Maxwell, Golf, Sir Alex Ferguson, Robert Burns, Iain Banks (Wanted to leave the UK), JK Rowling. I consider these things British too.

So for me, I'm double heartbroken. We've left the greatest institution ever in terms of protecting workers rights, and fecked a country so that it will split into two.

Well done us

1, That was true. It didn't mean the UK would never leave the EU.

2, Only if that Country wants to feck itself it still has to vote to leave, all the brexit vote has done is ask it make up its mind once and for all. To be fair I think that is right because the whole vote to stay and SNP thing is an untenable contradiction in the end. Foreverendum and all that.

 

[Walrus]

I researched the previous Scottish independence referendum quite thoroughly as my partner as the time was Scottish, and so I had some quite close ties. Based on everything I saw, I felt strongly that they should have voted to remain in the UK (which they did).

Now however, I fully expect Scotland to hold a second referendum and vote leave, and I cant blame them in the slightest.

As for Ireland, I have no ties or in depth knowledge of the situation there (above the norm, that is), but I have always felt that it seems daft for Ireland to be split into two separate nations in this way. I would genuinely be chuffed for the Irish if they managed to put their differences aside and unite again.

 

[Mozza]

Does this mean that the Welsh are little Englanders as well I wonder?

There are two groups who voted out, little englander and poor people, plenty of the latter in Wales, ironically they are the ones who have most money spent on them by the EU

 

[Cheesy]

The citing our last referendum doesn't really work either now because there is a clear shift in opinion taking place. I've seen a good few people even in the past couple of days admitting we probably need to leave the union. Ones who presumably never really thought we'd leave the EU, and have seen this as a wake-up call as to the future of the UK, and the general direction it's going in.

Not one argument from 2014 stands up anymore. The people who made those arguments in 2014 are either now unemployed, irrelevant, or both unemployed and irrelevant. The PM's on his way out, his chancellor will do little, Darling and Brown took a cosy retirement, Murphy's out a job, as are half the Scottish Labour bunch who were alongside him. Good luck mounting a campaign for the union with Boris, Gove and Farage as its central figures.

 

[Massive Spanner]

I researched the previous Scottish independence referendum quite thoroughly as my partner as the time was Scottish, and so I had some quite close ties. Based on everything I saw, I felt strongly that they should have voted to remain in the UK (which they did).

Now however, I fully expect Scotland to hold a second referendum and vote leave, and I cant blame them in the slightest.

As for Ireland, I have no ties or in depth knowledge of the situation there (above the norm, that is), but I have always felt that it seems daft for Ireland to be split into two separate nations in this way. I would genuinely be chuffed for the Irish if they managed to put their differences aside and unite again.

Sadly, almost half the population of the North would be far from chuffed if this happened, regardless of circumstances, and that's why it won't happen (discounting the financial implications it would have on ROI), at least in the next five to ten years, imo.

 

[berbatrick]

I would gather a large part of the Caf is against allowing Scotland or NI to hold a referendum on leaving the UK. Too important a decision to leave it up to the uniformed.

Boom!

 

[Walrus]

Sadly, almost half the population of the North would be far from chuffed if this happened, regardless of circumstances, and that's why it won't happen (discounting the financial implications it would have on ROI), at least in the next five to ten years, imo.

Pardon my ignorance on the subject, perhaps I am just being (far) too idealistic on the matter - I wouldve just thought that Irish people - whether from the North or South - would embrace the notion of unification. Obviously there is a lot of bad blood and history, I just wonder what it would take for them to sit down together and agree to put the past behind them.

 

[Carolina Red]

I would gather a large part of the Caf is against allowing Scotland or NI to hold a referendum on leaving the UK. Too important a decision to leave it up to the uniformed.

I would be. Should be decided in the elected legislature the same as the EU decision.

 

[Massive Spanner]

Pardon my ignorance on the subject, perhaps I am just being (far) too idealistic on the matter - I wouldve just thought that Irish people - whether from the North or South - would embrace the notion of unification. Obviously there is a lot of bad blood and history, I just wonder what it would take for them to sit down together and agree to put the past behind them.

Sadly not, in the North at least. There's still a severe religious divide between Catholics and Protestants there. Hell, you can even use football as an example. Many Catholic* footballers see themselves as Irish citizens and play for the ROI (McLean), whereas many Protestants* consider themselves part of Great Britain, play for NI, and will happily sing God Save the Queen as their anthem. You would essentially be asking almost half of the population of the country to leave a Sovereign State they feel they belong to in favour of joining a Southern State they do not feel they have any affiliation to and resent in many ways.

Catholics up North who see themselves as 'Irish' were generally happy to continue to be in the UK because they still had dual-citizenship (i.e. Irish & UK passports), they had no border controls to restrict them from going south and working south, and they still reaped all the rewards of being a part of the UK. Notably the NHS, funding, and that 40% of their population work for the UK Government. So this is the issue for the Catholics now. Will they lose dual-citizenship and thus no longer also be 'Irish'? Will they no longer be able to freely travel across the border to a country they believe they're a part of? And is it worth making these sacrifices when it's possible their once incredibly beneficial UK will go to shit!

The current setup (pre-Brexit) is quite simply the best for all. Catholics are still Irish if they choose to be and Protestants are able to be British. It's also something that took many, many decades to get right and Brexit could set us back all those decades of peace and prosperity if not dealt with very delicately, and I certainly do not see Irish-unification as the way to deal with it, not for a considerable amount of time, at least.

And all this isn't even taking into account the most basic reason of all - ROI cannot afford to take in NI. We can't fund it like the UK can (or, could).

* To clarify, I'm not speaking on behalf of all Catholics & Protestants, obviously it's a complex issue and there are many different beliefs among the 1.8 million people there

 

[2cents]

Pardon my ignorance on the subject, perhaps I am just being (far) too idealistic on the matter - I wouldve just thought that Irish people - whether from the North or South - would embrace the notion of unification. Obviously there is a lot of bad blood and history, I just wonder what it would take for them to sit down together and agree to put the past behind them.

The reason for the 'bad blood' is that half the population of the North do not identify as 'Irish' and the prospect of being forced into a United Ireland has been one of the primary factors driving that community's actions for over a century.

 

[sullydnl]

Pardon my ignorance on the subject, perhaps I am just being (far) too idealistic on the matter - I wouldve just thought that Irish people - whether from the North or South - would embrace the notion of unification. Obviously there is a lot of bad blood and history, I just wonder what it would take for them to sit down together and agree to put the past behind them.

Most people in the south would probably be theoretically in favour of a United Ireland, though this is at a time when the possibility of it actually happening seems remote.

If the Republic was actually presented with a referendum on whether to unite with NI then certain key questions would arise: Can we afford to take on NI? Even if we can, is that something we're willing to pay the price for? Can we accommodate Unionists? Can we maintain security? Will this plunge us back towards sectarian violence? Do we still feel like we're a nation divided or do we feel like we have our own identity as a Republic at this point? Do we really still see the Northern Irish as being our countrymen or do we now view them as being separate? Are we happy with a more prominent role for Sinn Fein in the new state we'd have fashioned?

Quite a few nuanced issues there, ones that would probably see some vast differences in terms of geography and age. Hard to know how it would all play out and that's without considering the internal politics of NI either.

 

[Silva]

Does this mean that the Welsh are little Englanders as well I wonder?

Short Whales?

 

[Carolina Red]

Short Whales?

Calves?

 

[Big-Red]

Pardon my ignorance on the subject, perhaps I am just being (far) too idealistic on the matter - I wouldve just thought that Irish people - whether from the North or South - would embrace the notion of unification. Obviously there is a lot of bad blood and history, I just wonder what it would take for them to sit down together and agree to put the past behind them.

Its not really about the North vs the ROI, its the divide between the citizens of Northern Ireland that will stop it. Relations between the Irelands are pretty good atm.

 

[Jerch]

Anyway, the EU is on course to collapse, many countries are going to have their own referendum over the next few years and i very much doubt they will all vote to stay.

I read that many times. I think one reason all EU people demanded in last days that GB start the process as soon as possible is that they want to make an example that exit is not the smartest choice to make before more countries start thinking about it.

After GB will go into a economic freefall I don't think many countries will think about going the same way.

 

[Edgar Allan Pillow]

Anyway, the EU is on course to collapse, many countries are going to have their own referendum over the next few years and i very much doubt they will all vote to stay.

UKs recession over the next 5 years will ensure no one else does.

More importantly, others have pegged their currency to Euro and getting their own back will be a far messier process.

 

[starman]

I read that many times. I think one reason all EU people demanded in last days that GB start the process as soon as possible is that they want to make an example that exit is not the smartest choice to make before more countries start thinking about it.

After GB will go into a economic freefall I don't think many countries will think about going the same way.

I read your other thread, you seem to criticise the U.K vote when you are not even British. Why?
The demand for the process to start is so the EU have the upper hand, and maintain EU stability. The U.K have no reason to rush, its whatever in their interest, not the EU's.

Norway is not in economic freefall, nor is Switzerland, both are part of the eea and also the efta which the U.K can now rejoin.

 

[starman]

UKs recession over the next 5 years will ensure no one else does.

More importantly, others have pegged their currency to Euro and getting their own back will be a far messier process.

I expect the first year to be bad, but when the potential EFTA trade agreements kicks in, the economy will get a massive boost.

Sweden still have their own currency, i expect them to leave if they have a referendum. They have a big immigrantion problem and the far right movement is gaining momentum

 

[Jerch]

I read your other thread, you seem to criticise the U.K vote when you are not even British. Why?
The demand for the process to start is so the EU have the upper hand, and maintain EU stability. The U.K have no reason to rush, its whatever in their interest, not the EU's.

Norway is not in economic freefall, nor is Switzerland, both are part of the eea and also the efta which the U.K can now rejoin.

Bolded: Because I can't understand how 52% of you voted for such a stupid idea. I just want to give my thoughts about it.

Underlined: I think it is because many from the EU politics are sick of GB and their wish came true with that referendum. There are not a lot of regrets expressed from EU politics. GB was always one leg in one leg out of the EU and I think people in EU want to make an example to other countries as soon as possible. GB will be perfect example for that as they could say "look what happened to GB which were strong before going out and is failing now" when other countries will think about going same way.

Norway and Switzerland part: It is stupid argument. Both countries still pay to EU and have open borders so they can be a part of EFTA. This two things were the biggest sell in the campain so you will probably won't be a part of EFTA. And even if you will want to remain in it, you need to negotate a deal with EU first which takes a lot of time and this will be talks where EU will be able to dictate how the deal will be done.

 

[Tincanalley]

Most people in the south would probably be theoretically in favour of a United Ireland, though this is at a time when the possibility of it actually happening seems remote.

If the Republic was actually presented with a referendum on whether to unite with NI then certain key questions would arise: Can we afford to take on NI? Even if we can, is that something we're willing to pay the price for? Can we accommodate Unionists? Can we maintain security? Will this plunge us back towards sectarian violence? Do we still feel like we're a nation divided or do we feel like we have our own identity as a Republic at this point? Do we really still see the Northern Irish as being our countrymen or do we now view them as being separate? Are we happy with a more prominent role for Sinn Fein in the new state we'd have fashioned?

Quite a few nuanced issues there, ones that would probably see some vast differences in terms of geography and age. Hard to know how it would all play out and that's without considering the internal politics of NI either.

There are so many imponderables. A NI/Scotland alliance? If NI and Scotland left, the Eurosceptic majority in England and Wales would then hold a strong majority within those borders. But I have a gut feeling that the Brexit effect on peoples pockets will make for very sobering medicine. People can change their minds. NI is accustomed to heavy duty financial subvention, a big chunk of which was European. That's gone now. Getting back in the EU would turn the cash tap back on (and I bet the Europeans would in the short term anyway, be very supportive of a United Ireland and equally of an Independent Scotland). Can't really see NI going it alone. Unless a very favourable deal can be done for a new UK/EU relationship, everything is up for grabs it seems to me.

 

[Don't Kill Bill]

There are two groups who voted out, little englander and poor people, plenty of the latter in Wales, ironically they are the ones who have most money spent on them by the EU

Plenty of the latter in England too but its easier to be racist and call them racist little Englanders isn't it Mozza?

All the money given out by the EU to everyone in the UK comes from the UK to begin with.

 

[Tyrion]

This is such a mess it's incredible. Ireland can't afford to absorb the north. The unionists would implement some scorched earth stupidity if a vote passed. Border controls would be a disaster.

Historically, it would be great to have the north returned. Economically....absolute chaos.

Agreed. I can't see Ireland being unified unless the sh!t really hits the fans in a few years and NI is desperate. Scotland I imagine is likely to go though. The economic and stability argument for staying in has gone as any UK government that will fight for an In vote will be comprised of the same people who have argued for a blind step into the unknown south of the border.

You can't argue for patriotism and hope and then switch to common sense without people calling you on your bs.