Champions League Semi Finals (24th April - 2nd May)

Water Melon

Guest
No, as I specified in my later post, an event having equal or less than 50% probability of happening is a fair definition, I'd say - or, in other words, the complementary event is more likely to happen. But that's something you can define for yourself, in my theoretical framework I defined it as such.



Re: luck, see above. I'm curious to hear why math doesn't work here, can you elaborate a bit? Because I personally think there's almost no case where math doesn't apply or where observations can't be abstracted in math (this is what kinda defines math). Plus, every bookmaker would be in big time trouble if stochastics didn't work in football.
Bookmakers define their bets on the amount of bets. As for maths in football and CL in particular there are too many variables. Of course winning CL twice in a row is more likely than thrice. But the final is likely to be Madrid vs Pool, and Madrid are favourites for dozens of reasons, though based on your approach Pool are more likely to win it according to statictics. Flipping a coin can only yield two results. A football match has hundreds of variables for each game. Here is another example: say, I am travelling and have bought a ticket. During the last 10 years I took more international flights than domestic ones. Now I have another ticket. Am I travelling domestically or internationally? Give me some math solution.
 

FootballHQ

Full Member
Joined
Nov 17, 2017
Messages
18,467
Supports
Aston Villa
Absolutely not. The thought gives me chills. Worst defender in the league.

Just have to pray Boating is alright. Would be nice for Germany to go into a WC without losing a key player a month prior for once.
Too long a winter break obviously....;)

Boateng is top class though. Think the pool of quality CBs is much lower than 10 years ago but he's matured a lot since that one season at Man. City when he was played at RB.
 

giorno

boob novice
Joined
Jul 20, 2016
Messages
27,278
Supports
Real Madrid
https://www.football-italia.net/120527/rome-police-expect-1000-hooligans

I see the propaganda has already started. The Italian police feeding the narrative that 20% of the Liverpool fans attending next weeks 2nd leg tie in Rome are dangerous hooligans. The media & the police colluding in an attempt to smear, & then justify. So it doesn't just happen here in the UK then.
Claiming the information comes from Scotland Yard. Roman police also claiming they gave Scotland Yard all the informations they needed about the dangerous elements traveling within the roma fans and that english police underestimated the threat
 

SRV

New Member
Newbie
Joined
Apr 26, 2013
Messages
77
Bookmakers define their bets on the amount of bets. As for maths in football and CL in particular there are too many variables. Of course winning CL twice in a row is more likely than thrice. But the final is likely to be Madrid vs Pool, and Madrid are favourites for dozens of reasons, though based on your approach Pool are more likely to win it according to statictics. Flipping a coin can only yield two results. A football match has hundreds of variables for each game. Here is another example: say, I am travelling and have bought a ticket. During the last 10 years I took more international flights than domestic ones. Now I have another ticket. Am I travelling domestically or internationally? Give me some math solution.
No, it isn't, you don't have the math right here :) Every game in itself has its own odds, so when the team are assumed to be the same strength it's a coinflip, independently of what happened before (see my argument that events are independent - meaning that it doesn't matter if you won the CL already two times before, the odds for one particular game are independent of that - you could argue that there's a correlation between the amount of CL wins and the strength of the teams and thus one should be more likely to win the game, but I tried to keep things simple for the sake of the argument, but even in this case it follows the same logic). I talked about the overall event, winning the CL three times in a row.
 

Water Melon

Guest
No, it isn't, you don't have the math right here :) Every game in itself has its own odds, so when the team are assumed to be the same strength it's a coinflip, independently of what happened before (see my argument that events are independent - meaning that it doesn't matter if you won the CL already two times before, the odds for one particular game are independent of that - you could argue that there's a correlation between the amount of CL wins and the strength of the teams and thus one should be more likely to win the game, but I tried to keep things simple for the sake of the argument, but even in this case it follows the same logic). I talked about the overall event, winning the CL three times in a row.
Well, if all teams competing in CL for 3 years in a row are to be assumed of the same strength (which is far from being a case for teams just in one group in one season), sure, then it is pure maths.
 
Last edited by a moderator:

Klopper76

"Did you see Fabinho against Red Star & Cardiff?"
Joined
Dec 15, 2015
Messages
19,975
Location
Victoria, BC
Supports
Liverpool
Some wonderful fake news doing the rounds in Rome.


 

redman5

New Member
Joined
Feb 9, 2007
Messages
5,241
Location
In a world of my own. People know me here.
Claiming the information comes from Scotland Yard. Roman police also claiming they gave Scotland Yard all the informations they needed about the dangerous elements traveling within the roma fans and that english police underestimated the threat
Strange though isn't it ? There's not been one single Liverpool fan arrested in any of away games in this season's CL. Don't even recall there being too many problems when we got to the EL final a couple of years ago. So it must one of two things. A - The Liverpool hooligans are very good at getting away with crimes that somehow failed to get reported or recorded. Or B - It's all a load of bollocks geared towards giving the Italian police some justification in bringing out the batons & tear-gas should a Liverpool supporter even have the audacity to complain that his pasta is cold.
 

giorno

boob novice
Joined
Jul 20, 2016
Messages
27,278
Supports
Real Madrid
Strange though isn't it ? There's not been one single Liverpool fan arrested in any of away games in this season's CL. Don't even recall there being too many problems when we got to the EL final a couple of years ago. So it must one of two things. A - The Liverpool hooligans are very good at getting away with crimes that somehow failed to get reported or recorded. Or B - It's all a load of bollocks geared towards giving the Italian police some justification in bringing out the batons & tear-gas should a Liverpool supporter even have the audacity to complain that his pasta is cold.
Dunno, the hooligans claims showed up even before the first leg. Originally it was 600 then yesterday ballooned up to 1000. Rome's just generally bad with dealing with fans, it's a clusterfeck of a city in terms of logistics. None of this would be an issue if it were in Milan(then again, milan or inter fans wouldn't have gone around attacking liverpool fans either). The last time visiting away fans(ajax) tried to start up shit in milan the business owners took to the street and beat the feck out of them :lol: beat them all the way to a demonstration that was going on(unrelated) and then the protesters got in on it too. Ajax ultras are unlikely to try it again in our city :lol:

Anyways, seems like police are going to be escorting the liverpool fans all the way to keep them away from the ultras and there will be a 3 days ban on alcohol in the city. Word is scotland yard will try to keep as many of those dangerous elements as possible home too. The city will be under martial law. The ultras will still find a way to get at you guys though :(
 

HorrorFan07

New Member
Newbie
Joined
Apr 9, 2018
Messages
72
So why isn't Zizou and this Real Madrid team as loved as Pep's Barca then? if they win the 3rd CL surely they deserve to be in the mix!?
 

Peanut Butter

New Member
Joined
Aug 16, 2016
Messages
5,498
So why isn't Zizou and this Real Madrid team as loved as Pep's Barca then? if they win the 3rd CL surely they deserve to be in the mix!?
Some perceive this Real Madrid side as a bit lucky I think. Anyone seen the Zidane GIF doing the rounds of him avoiding traffic by the hair of his neck? It’s hilarious.

They don’t have the ‘brand’ of football Barca had either.
 

Cassady

Supports Liverpool, Not Accrington Stanley
Joined
Jan 15, 2014
Messages
3,682
Location
South Liverpool.
Supports
Accrington Stanley.
https://www.football-italia.net/120527/rome-police-expect-1000-hooligans

I see the propaganda has already started. The Italian police feeding the narrative that 20% of the Liverpool fans attending next weeks 2nd leg tie in Rome are dangerous hooligans. The media & the police colluding in an attempt to smear, & then justify. So it doesn't just happen here in the UK then.

Seen that. Ive also read Roma fans were attacked with chairs on thevway from town to Anfield and then retaliated at the ground. For those of you who have made that walk you know its not really a walk with cafes and bars as its a poor area. Liverpool hooligans must have got them from the few second hand shops on Breck Road and attacked these innocent Italians. Yeh right. Its bullshit and a story to blame us and stir up things for Wednesday.
 

extincti fugax hominum

New Member
Newbie
Joined
Jan 7, 2017
Messages
891
Location
Combat

He showed yellow for this one but thought Nani deserved a straight red for nearly the same situation. Fecked the tie (for Real's favour again) and Sir Alex's final CL campaign up.

He also fecks it up in the Turkish Super League. Loves to be in the center of attention i guess.
 

Cassady

Supports Liverpool, Not Accrington Stanley
Joined
Jan 15, 2014
Messages
3,682
Location
South Liverpool.
Supports
Accrington Stanley.
Anyways, seems like police are going to be escorting the liverpool fans all the way to keep them away from the ultras and there will be a 3 days ban on alcohol in the city. Word is scotland yard will try to keep as many of those dangerous elements as possible home too. The city will be under martial law. The ultras will still find a way to get at you guys though :(
Most probably with the help of the police. Some bellend on youtube is posting videos saying Liverpool hooligans are teaming up with Lazio. On one of his vids he shows footage from last week and slips in a still of a Liverpool fan fighting with a Seville fan in 2016. Its all bollocks and propaganda designed to stir things up for Wednesday and Ive got a bad feeling . We'll most probably get set up retaliate and blamed.
 

Tommy

bigot with fetish for footballers getting fingered
Joined
Aug 3, 2014
Messages
10,672
Location
Birmingham
Supports
Liverpool
I really hope Bayern make a game of it tonight, but I expect an early(ish) goal from Real Madrid to totally kill my interest in the tie (which is kinda daft as Bayern would need 2 anyway).
 

Daysleeper

New Member
Joined
Sep 25, 2014
Messages
4,790
Supports
Barcelona
I just want Madrid to lose badly. Whether it is tonight or against Liverpool
 

Tommy

bigot with fetish for footballers getting fingered
Joined
Aug 3, 2014
Messages
10,672
Location
Birmingham
Supports
Liverpool
I just want Madrid to lose badly. Whether it is tonight or against Liverpool
I was like, wow, that's a pretty outrageous thing for a United fan to say... Then I saw you support Barcelona, and it all made sense :lol:

I agree though. I'd not really mind if Bayern won it, but Real? Again? Meh to them.
 

Dumbstar

We got another woman hater here.
Joined
Jul 18, 2002
Messages
21,286
Location
Viva Karius!
Supports
Liverpool
A red against Ronaldo or Ramos would be tops but that's not going to happen now even if they knife a player.
 

SwansonsTache

incontinent sexual deviant & German sausage lover
Joined
Dec 16, 2015
Messages
15,563
Location
Norway
Are they serious? You could just as well have Florentino Perez ref Madrid.

Would be fun if it was Barcelona and RM matching up in the CL semi, the ref would most likely contract some sort of syntax error since he couldn't compute who to give the most dodgy decisions.
 

ZAGREB RED

Guest
Looking forward to this game, Bayern have to come out and have a go, obviously. Both teams have a few injuries, Real are planning to play Vazquez at right back according to the media. So hopefully will be an entertaining game with a few goals, although I would rather Real went on to the final for obvious reasons.
 

HTG

Full Member
Joined
Apr 27, 2011
Messages
6,184
Supports
Bayern
Everyone knows how this is going to be. We‘ll play our minds out, get the lead, someone who shouldn’t be playing in the first team makes a mistake, Real score, we desperately chase the next goal, miss plenty good opportunities and then Real go for the kill. Yet I can’t help myself from being optimistic and hoping for the best.
 

Apocalypse

New Member
Newbie
Joined
Mar 24, 2018
Messages
101
Supports
Chelsea
I lost all hope for Bayern the moment Robben got injured. Think he'd have roasted Marcelo last week.

The footballing gods seemingly want Real to win a third on the trot. The amount of luck they get is quite sickening.
 

HTG

Full Member
Joined
Apr 27, 2011
Messages
6,184
Supports
Bayern
I lost all hope for Bayern the moment Robben got injured. Think he'd have roasted Marcelo last week.

The footballing gods seemingly want Real to win a third on the trot. The amount of luck they get is quite sickening.
Robben‘s possible impact is very overrated on here. He’s a shadow of his former self. Has lost his pace and any bit of his efficiency. The problem wasn’t missing Robben. It was relying on him in the first place.
 

Cal?

CR7 fan
Joined
Mar 18, 2002
Messages
34,977
I lost all hope for Bayern the moment Robben got injured. Think he'd have roasted Marcelo last week.

The footballing gods seemingly want Real to win a third on the trot. The amount of luck they get is quite sickening.
Since when does the opposition having injury-prone players count as luck? :confused:
 

GhastlyHun

Full Member
Joined
Dec 19, 2015
Messages
12,927
Location
Bavaria
Supports
Bayern München
Martinez is out as well :lol:

...or just benched? Kicker has a news article on that which seems to contradict itself.
 
Last edited: