The election was close. Trump numbers will go down in the next two years, so Florida is definitely in game.
2018 US Elections
- Thread starter Red Dreams
- Start date
Please don't do that. Haven't we all learned anything about that state with regards to elections since 2000?
Obama won it both times. And Romney was quite popular.
I still don't understand how people think that Dems are going to win these 3 states anytime soon.
Yeap. Feck that POS state (not you guys @Billy Blaggs @Florida Man )
We are in new waters anyway. With western states like Nevada and Colorado turning into dependable blue states, and North Carolina now without a GOP supermajorities in legislative chambers, a Democratic SC and governor, it's possible to feck off Ohio and Florida and win.
Obama was a different kind of politician. Added to that, there is evidence to suggest that a lot of "Trump supporting" whites didn't vote in 2008 and 2002. Trump has got them energized and enthused to come out and vote on his agenda. He doesn't even need to be on the ballot.
Just to show how fecked up it all is:
"With 114 million voters, it would appear that this year saw 31 million more ballots than the 2014 midterms.
Interestingly, the New York Times senate results as of (slightly earlier this morning) had 40.7m votes cast for the Democrats, while the Republicans have 31.6m votes.
But at that point, the GOP had gained three (now 2) seats, while the Democrats have lost three (now 2) seats. Those numbers will shift as more votes are counted throughout the night."
Here's the lesson: Know your targets and forget everything else!
"With 114 million voters, it would appear that this year saw 31 million more ballots than the 2014 midterms.
Interestingly, the New York Times senate results as of (slightly earlier this morning) had 40.7m votes cast for the Democrats, while the Republicans have 31.6m votes.
But at that point, the GOP had gained three (now 2) seats, while the Democrats have lost three (now 2) seats. Those numbers will shift as more votes are counted throughout the night."
Here's the lesson: Know your targets and forget everything else!
The GOP lost 7 of 8 races in PA, WI and MI, which gave him the presidency. These are bad news for Trump.
Aside from Florida, Republican struggled to win in non red states. More bad news for him. Overall, this was a better day for Democrats than people make of it.
That’s what happens when every state, including very small ones, has two senators.
Lesson #2: Gerrymandering works.
This is where i'm tentatively at. The extra 1.4m votes in former felon votes should flip Florida in 2020, and I think he'll lose Pennsylvania and Ohio.
However, this is all relying on the Dems to have a good enough candidate.
South Carolina’s 1st Congressional District has been controlled by a Republican since 1981. Can’t believe I’m waking up to see it flipped to blue.
Keep an eye on Georgia … it's all gonna go off!
EDIT: For those of you that aren't aware: The secretary of state for Georgia (the person personally overseeing the election and ensuring it is run fairly and legally) is none other than … Republican candidate Brian Kemp
- As of 4am local time, there was a difference of 85,167 votes separating Kemp and Abrams, which represents just over 2% of votes cast.
- To trigger a runoff, the Abrams campaign needs to net 24,379 votes out of the tens of thousands of potential ballots that remain outstanding.
- Three of the four largest counties in the state – DeKalb, Gwinnett, and Cobb – have reported only a portion of the votes that were submitted by early mail. In Cobb, anywhere between 25,000 and 26,000 votes were submitted early by mail.
- Four other large counties – Chatham, Henry, Douglas, and Clarke – have reported zero votes by mail.
- Together, those seven counties are expected to return a minimum of 77,000 ballots. These counties also represent heavily-Democratic leaning constituencies.
EDIT: For those of you that aren't aware: The secretary of state for Georgia (the person personally overseeing the election and ensuring it is run fairly and legally) is none other than … Republican candidate Brian Kemp
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Actually TWO indicted GOPers won their race. Duncan Hunter and Chris Collins.
And of course, let's not forget our friend Gianforte in @Eboue's neighbourhood who bodyslammed a reporter.
… and not to forget Alaska representative Don Young, the longest-serving member of the House, who won a 24th term.
"Young once famously pinned former speaker John Boehner against a wall inside the House chamber during a debate about earmarks – and held a 10-inch knife to his throat. Young has a long history of incendiary remarks and actions, including once brandishing an 18-inch-long walrus penis bone."
You have to laugh!
While I'm here …
"The election cycle saw the emergence of a new trend in political campaigning: denouncing the candidacies of one’s own family members. In Missouri, Steve West, a Republican candidate for the state general assembly, faced opposition from his son and daughter, who spoke out against his racist, homophobic and anti-Semitic views. In Utah, 12 relatives of Republican gubernatorial candidate Adam Laxalt wrote an op-ed calling the politico out for his “phoniness”. (Twenty-two relatives responded with their own op-ed supporting Laxalt, proving at the very least that the politico has a significant number of relatives.) And in Arizona, six of Republican congressman Paul Gosar’s nine siblings starred in a series of attack ads against their rightwing brother."
West and Laxalt both lost, Gosar won, and 45 people can look forward to a very interesting Thanksgiving.
Good riddance to the Russian agent Rohrabacher.
Been a decent night for the Dems. A lot of good results, but gutted about what happened in Florida.
Okay, just that based on the numbers, it’s difficult to justify Trump looking strong in OH/FL whilst you make it sound MI/WI/PA are much more competitive despite the much bigger margins the Dems ran up.
Dems won the vote overall by over 9%. Hillary would be president if she won it by 4% rather than 2-3%
True, but then you expect the opposition party to win midterms. Republicans won midterms in 2010, and Obama won in 2012.
Voting suppression will also continue being a problem. I think that it all depends on whom they choose to challenge Trump. A progressive will have a good chance of winning, a centrist not as good, Hillary zero chance.
Trump won OH by 13 and Florida by 3. PA/MI/WI are of course looking much better but given the margin last election they are still vulnerable, with his approval number at 46//47/48 there. What is there to be confused about?
Dems won by 9% now. There's no guarantee they will win by 9 again in 2020. If they run with someone bland and uninspiring who have no appeal to the Midwest voters and the economy remains strong, entirely possible Trump will win one if not more of the 3 states.
Disenfranchisement isn't real. Suedesi said so.
One cnut less.
Literally physically ill this AM under the dawn of yet another Republican governor starting his term. My first thoughts are that I may actually be pining for Rick Scott in very short order, just don’t see anything DeSantis brings to the table other than being a Trump sycophant. At least Scott ‘attempted’ to right his wrongs of his first term in some small degree, just don’t see this new occupant ever gaining that much clarity.
Turned the whole media thing off last night early when it was clear that FL & GA weren’t going to the proper plan, haven’t dug in to see where Gilliam lost - poor youth / ethnic turnout, larger than expected voting by the right, early voting, something else? For all the hoopla about the economy, it is places like rural FL & GA that are in dire straits vis a vis healthcare, hospitals closing, Medicaid being denied, yet it is the ignorant thumpers who voted Trump in who probably did the same for DeSantis & Kemp. They stand on a precipice of individual healthcare disasters, hope the $5 / paycheck & the stock indices were worth it (albeit they have no skin in the game regarding anything invested).
Just massively disappointing that Florida, fecking Florida, could not have had its Latino population (minus hardcore Cubans in the Miami area) make the difference for both Gilliam & Nelson. Whose at fault for this? I don’t think it can be focused on one thing, but the DNCC, the shadow of Hillary, the age disparity between upper leadership & those who should obviously be in more control, a piss poor ground game, the inability to turn feck tons of cash into something meaningful, & the conservative blue hairs pulling their oxygen around that are not falling off the voting rolls quick enough, but sure as shit vote every time, all the time. Sure, there is gerrymandering, evisceration of numbers of potential liberal voters, & the idiotic apathy of youth, but our party needs to look inwards with scalpels & bone saws at the ready. Nothing as hyperbolic as ‘autopsy report’ suggested by Prebius in 2012, the patient is still alive, but some uncomfortable decisions need to be made in this state, writ large for the country.
Can’t even be the least bit excited right now that we took the House back. Hopefully that will be what snaps me out of my funk.
I truly hope everyone had better respective local results than I. It should be an interesting read, these last forty pages in this thread I jumped over to post this.
I will be at McDinton’s Tampa for the match today. If any of the handful of Caf members in the area want a free drink or two, it’s on me.
Turned the whole media thing off last night early when it was clear that FL & GA weren’t going to the proper plan, haven’t dug in to see where Gilliam lost - poor youth / ethnic turnout, larger than expected voting by the right, early voting, something else? For all the hoopla about the economy, it is places like rural FL & GA that are in dire straits vis a vis healthcare, hospitals closing, Medicaid being denied, yet it is the ignorant thumpers who voted Trump in who probably did the same for DeSantis & Kemp. They stand on a precipice of individual healthcare disasters, hope the $5 / paycheck & the stock indices were worth it (albeit they have no skin in the game regarding anything invested).
Just massively disappointing that Florida, fecking Florida, could not have had its Latino population (minus hardcore Cubans in the Miami area) make the difference for both Gilliam & Nelson. Whose at fault for this? I don’t think it can be focused on one thing, but the DNCC, the shadow of Hillary, the age disparity between upper leadership & those who should obviously be in more control, a piss poor ground game, the inability to turn feck tons of cash into something meaningful, & the conservative blue hairs pulling their oxygen around that are not falling off the voting rolls quick enough, but sure as shit vote every time, all the time. Sure, there is gerrymandering, evisceration of numbers of potential liberal voters, & the idiotic apathy of youth, but our party needs to look inwards with scalpels & bone saws at the ready. Nothing as hyperbolic as ‘autopsy report’ suggested by Prebius in 2012, the patient is still alive, but some uncomfortable decisions need to be made in this state, writ large for the country.
Can’t even be the least bit excited right now that we took the House back. Hopefully that will be what snaps me out of my funk.
I truly hope everyone had better respective local results than I. It should be an interesting read, these last forty pages in this thread I jumped over to post this.
I will be at McDinton’s Tampa for the match today. If any of the handful of Caf members in the area want a free drink or two, it’s on me.
Connecticut's governor race hasn't been called yet. It's a blue state (Murphy won reelection with ease) however the last governor was so hated by both sides.
Florida is America's Australia. Full of deadly creatures and weird people.
It's Alabama with more coastline.
The Dem challenger is supposedly up by 3k right? Is there going to be a recount?
Impeachment happens in the House of Representatives.
It doesn't mean removal from office.
So which governorship races for flipped?
I was surprised to see Kansas. Thought it was as red a state as Alabama?
I was surprised to see Kansas. Thought it was as red a state as Alabama?
Doesn't the senate need to ratify it (not sure of the proper term)
With Clinton he was impeached by the House but not the Senate
The terms are: the House impeaches, the Senate convicts.
Must be depressing for them that even when faced with tragedy, people still won't wake up.
Whilst it might be an okay night for the dems overall, the absence of any significant backlash against Trump is fecking depressing.
Perhaps It was naive to expect anything other than continued support for him. What a world
Perhaps It was naive to expect anything other than continued support for him. What a world
It's really slim. Questions of really late same day registration. I think it'll come to a recount but I don't see the Republican winning. That it is this close is troubling enough.
They are up against a sick country and a sick system.
Even SC is doing better than Florida