The way I see it, if we're overachieving that much there's no reason why we can't win the league according to that graph!
Ole Gunnar Solskjaer | W15 D2 L4
- Thread starter Tom Van Persie
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Nice interview with our managerial god here
Even if we were not underachieving, do you think 10 wins in 11 is "normal" or overachieving for a squad such as ours?
Might be normal if we had a squad like City's but admittedly we aren't that good and yet we are on a Cityesque run, which included some decent teams like Arsenal, Spurs and Leicester. So yeah, overachieving for sure.
"He isn't promoting youth"
"He isn't following a pink line on a nonsensical xG graph"
Bullshitters are running out of excuses.
"He isn't following a pink line on a nonsensical xG graph"
Bullshitters are running out of excuses.
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Am I the only one to feel there’s a hint of defensiveness and uncertainty about Tuchel there?
This differential between points based on actual and expected goals is the contribution of David de Gea - we concede significantly less than we "should"
Exactly. Shock horror, a team that has an attack containing Pogba, Rashford and Martial is finally battering teams.
If Fergie was still the manager, this run wouldn't have even made the news...
«You pretend you’re the manager of Manchester United at times, don’t you.»
This is his dream come true, and he isn’t hiding it. Great stuff!
Baffles doesn't it? One of the most expensive teams in the world and they're playing above their station? Go on, tell me another one...Exactly. Shock horror, a team that has an attack containing Pogba, Rashford and Martial is finally battering teams.
We might only have a crap (ish) defence but the mids and attack are certainly good enough to beat those teams, lets not forget we do have a brilliant keeper. What have United become that beating those teams is now considered overachieving. Bloody hell, Beating bottom half teams, Leicester and arsenal requires city's squad for it to be normal?
Spurs are the hardest team we have faced but they aren't pool or city. Arsenal are arsenal, leicester are a team who raise their game vs top teams and nothing else and the rest were bottom half teams.
Jose's defensive approach and lack of coaching certainly has messed with our fans minds.
Where is the rest of the teams (at least in the top six?).
You’re having a laugh if you think that’s how you do proper analysis of anything. Let’s see what the lines for Liverpool, City, Spurs etc look like since the start of the season before we even think of taking anything from it.
I have a lot for issues with this squad but there are very few things that I have ever cared about less than this graph.
It's just people trying to copy PFF from the NFL. Games are played on the field, by human beings and unexpected randomness. Not on spreadsheets and Microsoft Excel
To be fair, nothing wrong with stats and measurements. Just people don’t seem to have a clue how to apply them and neither do they seem to grasp their limitations (especially when in isolation).
Love it.
Anyone else just glaze over with boredom when people bring out the xG stats? One of the most nerdy and tedious additions to football analysis.
He’s done an amazing job so far but there’s so much to play for between now and end of the season. Let’s just wait, let him go about his business as he has been and let the squad ride this form for as long as possible. No need to make a decision right now and rock the boat
Bloody xg, honestly, who cares?
This.
Cant stand it either. I've only noticed it this season. Pointless.
I feel XG is flawed if looking as a standalone stat, although it's not a bad stat to suppliment an overall evaluation. They just need to be put into context.
It seems Ole tries to punish teams early and then control the game when we have a 2 goal lead. Some games are contrary to this, like Leicester or Burnley but that's because it doesn't always go to script.
When it does go to plan though, the fact that we are just managing the game and sitting on a good lead means we won't bother to huff and puff for a goal as much, making our XG lower.
I prefer to look at the fact that we no longer have a negative goal difference and its actually competitive with the likes of Arsenal or Chelsea.
It seems Ole tries to punish teams early and then control the game when we have a 2 goal lead. Some games are contrary to this, like Leicester or Burnley but that's because it doesn't always go to script.
When it does go to plan though, the fact that we are just managing the game and sitting on a good lead means we won't bother to huff and puff for a goal as much, making our XG lower.
I prefer to look at the fact that we no longer have a negative goal difference and its actually competitive with the likes of Arsenal or Chelsea.
Does this xG graph thing mean:
1) we are scoring more than expected, which points to our attackers being in good / clinical form, and/or opponents committing defensive howlers against us (plus are pens taken into account? We've apparently had the most pens in the league this season); and
2) we are conceding less than expected, which could be due to opponents missing glaring chances and/or our GK pulling off unexpected saves?
If so, it's not too hard to believe.
1) we are scoring more than expected, which points to our attackers being in good / clinical form, and/or opponents committing defensive howlers against us (plus are pens taken into account? We've apparently had the most pens in the league this season); and
2) we are conceding less than expected, which could be due to opponents missing glaring chances and/or our GK pulling off unexpected saves?
If so, it's not too hard to believe.
XG is for journalists who didn't make it as players and have found themselves without a club to support. They want to be involved, they want to be important and they fecking love their lanyards. So they create this shit so they've something to chat to another fat prick about on TalkSport.
Trust me, it means fuk all.
RAWK complained Fulham had a better XG than us in reply to their offside luckTrust me, it means fuk all.
"Expected goals" I don't even understand what's this stat is based on and I don't want to know. I only know if you win 10 out of 11 then you're good enough.
Of course.RAWK complained Fulham had a better XG than us in reply to their offside luck
Yep. When I first heard of them, which was only this season I think, I genuinely thought it was something from RAWK with their ALT etc.
This
PSG is the perfect litmus test for Ole.
What is deemed an expected goal?
God why do numpties on twitter constantly misuse xG. xG is an AVERAGE, top teams outperform their xG consistently because they have above average players. xG also does not take into account game events and tactical decisions. A top 6 team will outperform their xG by 10-20%.
For those unaware, xG calculates the average scoring rate of a given shot in a given situation. The basic models simply use the position of the shot, the more advanced ones that the stats companies use simulates the environment and the shot.
For those unaware, xG calculates the average scoring rate of a given shot in a given situation. The basic models simply use the position of the shot, the more advanced ones that the stats companies use simulates the environment and the shot.
Ole receiving the ball in the box.
It's supposed to be the difficulty of a chance, and whether you've scored it or not.
Take Aguero v Chelsea, the tap in was an "expected goal" as it was an easy chance. His curler from outside the box was not. His header in the 2nd half was also a higher rated expected goal than the curler.
They take that average of chances deeming how easy it is to score or what position the player is in.
https://www.optasports.com/services/analytics/advanced-metrics/
I agree people are just trying to overcomplicate a simple game.
There in lies the problem. Who seems what is easy and what is not. A lot of great chances in football don't even result in a shot on goal.
You know how people describe how a team should have won a game when it was 0-0, xG allows you to quantify this. It is a decent metric and better than shots on goal/ off target but obviously not an exact symbol of a team's performance.
The thing behind xG is the whole database is based on all players and their chances. There is a lot of bad players in there. We have over average players that, on average, will perform better than most players. Ie DDG will save more ‘expected goals’ than any other keeper. Pogba, martial and rashford will score 0.2 xGs more than any other player. Getting those boys in form is the reason we are points over expected goals. That’s the way it should be if you want to be above the pack.
If that’s still hard to understand: take pogba’s goal this weekend. What was the xG on that chance? Pogba scored it because of his quality. We are more often than not going to score from lower xG chances like that and that means we are most likely going to get more points out of lesser chances. We are clinical.
If that’s still hard to understand: take pogba’s goal this weekend. What was the xG on that chance? Pogba scored it because of his quality. We are more often than not going to score from lower xG chances like that and that means we are most likely going to get more points out of lesser chances. We are clinical.